Article: Where Does Pelfrey Fit In?

[Steven Buhr]

There's no such thing as a "lock" for a rotation spot more than 6 months before the season even starts. Too much crap... most of it bad, assuming the Twins luck continues to run the way it has... can happen between now and Opening Day 2015.

 

You don't know what kind of pitcher Pelfrey will be in April and you can't be any more certain about any of the other rotation candidates. Injuries happen. Cutting him loose now, for no compelling reason, would just be stupid.  

 

If... BIG IF... there comes a point in the offseason when his 40 man roster spot is needed for a new FA or someone you trade for or to protect a young player from being lost in the Rule 5 draft, then yes, Pelfrey's spot is one you would have to consider opening up. But unless/until that happens, you bring him to ST with everyone else and you see whether he slots in somewhere based on everyone's performances and potential at that time.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't see Pelfrey getting traded this offseason as there's always guys like him looking for 1 year deals to reclaim their value. Teams aren't going to give up money and a prospect for that purpose. I could see him being added to irrevocable waivers and given the option to latch on to anyone who claims him for his salary, but I have a feeling he'd remain a Twin and go unclaimed.

 

As for the 2015 rotation, what I want is Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, May, and Meyer. However, I think Meyer is the odd guy out and it will be one of Pelfrey or Millone unless someone gets hurt or Meyer absolutely destroys ST while the other two stink it up. Johnson, Darnell, and Pino stick around as AAA depth and remain on the 40 man for injury callups.

[James Richter]

Definitely bring him to spring training and give him a chance to earn a spot. If he pitches like he did down the stretch in 2013, he will have value somewhere. If the Twins don't have room, some other team will suffer an injury to their rotation and want an affordable veteran to fill in. He could easily fill the Swarzak role in the bullpen if nothing else. Only if he tanks in spring training should he be dropped. Throwing value away is a big reason the Twins are in this mess.

[h2oface]

Folks like to point out that Pelfrey had a "good stretch", and hope that he can do that for a whole year.  Unfortunately, the good stretch is rare for the man throughout his career.  Pelfrey would fit in as a car dealer in Oklahoma, though.  Aw shucks.

[tobi0040]

Folks like to point out that Pelfrey had a "good stretch", and hope that he can do that for a whole year.  Unfortunately, the good stretch is rare for the man throughout his career.  Pelfrey would fit in as a car dealer in Oklahoma, though.  Aw shucks.

 

You really have to dig deep to make the case for him. ERA wise, his last good year was 2010, before that 2008.  Before that never.  Those two years had pedestrian xFIP's.

[TheLeviathan]

It's really hard not to hear "Pelfrey" and be too busy shaking my head in disgust to read a thread about him.

[DocBauer]

The problem with Pelfrey is that he is such and enigma.

 

He's never been anything close to dominant or outstanding in any way. But from 2008-2011 he enjoyed 4, overall pretty solid seasons. Now, 2 were actually winning seasons with a sub 4 ERA, and 2 not very good seasons, but in each of these years he took the ball and ate innings. And I think it's obvious this is the guy the Twins were hoping to get last season. And in truth, once get got strength and feel back, he actually pitched pretty well until late season fatigue.

 

He was not the signing I wanted last offseason after Nolasco and Hughes. There were several options I liked better, that I thought made more sense, even if you had to toss another 2-3M in to the deal. Still, I couldn't hate the idea of a depth signing based on proposed health and fresher a arm. But two years? THAT was the mistake.

 

Still, we have him. His contract could allow the Twins to cut bait like they did with Marquis a couple years ago. Barring a rash of injuries, or a sudden "find himself" moment, there's just no room for him in the rotation. Despite several young relief options that may be ready to audition from AAA next season, and probably an even more talented mix lower in the minors that might fit in 2015 before the season is done, I feel the Twins really need to shore the bullpen up with one high quality arm to pitch the 8th, and occasionally give Perkins the night off. Could that be Pelfrey? I think it's an intriguing idea and worth investigating. It's not like you're going to be able to trade him for anything at this point.

 

But I'd have a hard time banking on the move. I'd still make the FA move along with the Pelfrey audition. You've got nothing to lose giving him the shot, and you might get a nice payoff out of it.

 

 

[Otwins]

How much different does Pelfrey profile than Wade Davis? Davis was a back end of rotation starter with a mid 4- to sometimes 5 era. Threw mid 90's as a starter but added velocity in bullpen. It could happen

[Thrylos]

I think that the Twins should toy with the idea to try him as a reliever.  I suspect that he would be a better late inning option than Tonkin or Fien (Burton is gone) and maybe Perkins when all is said and done.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think you would want to bring him in with runners on base. His performance drops when runners on base and pitching from stretch more than most. Any relief re would need to be one that usually starts an inning

[laloesch]

2015

Hughes

Nolosco

Gibson

May

Meyer

 

Sorry Pelfrey, no room

 

Agreed.  It's time to move on.  We have Milone, Meyer, Pino, Darnell, Gil Martin and Berrios (by next fall).   That's PLENTY of starting options in case of injury, fatigue, failure, etc.   I don't like the thought of moving him to the bullpen either.  He's really only a one pitch pitcher (fastball).  That doesn't bode well for a reliever, especially with runners on base.  

 

IMO he's dead weight.  If I was GM he'd be a DFA candidate.  

Edited September 20, 2014 by laloesch

[Kwak]

Pelrey's 2013 stat line:  TBF  Hits  BAVGA  OBAA  BB                 K

 

                                       680   184  .300        .358    53 (7.8%)   101  (14.8%)

 

 

Does this look like a candidate for the bullpen? I don't think so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't like the thought of moving him to the bullpen either.  He's really only a one pitch pitcher (fastball).  That doesn't bode well for a reliever, especially with runners on base.  

There are many relievers who succeed with a good fastball and one mediocre breaking pitch.

 

The bullpen is the place to put guys like that, actually. Starters need to alter their approach - often with different pitch mixes - the second and third time through a lineup. A reliever just has to go out there and throw really hard to three batters.

 

The biggest question surrounding Pelfrey to the pen is whether he can throw hard enough (he'll need to be in the 94-95 range) in short appearances to induce swings and misses, not whether only having a fastball is a detriment.

[jorgenswest]

The other questions...

 

Can he pitch with runners on base? As a starter he can't.

 

Can he warm up quickly?

 

Can he pitch on back to back days?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I can certainly agree with those critiques, but at the same time, I think the negativity I see directed toward Pelf is over-the-top. His struggles early on in the 2013 season were completely predictable following his insanely rapid return from Tommy John, but in the final three months of the season he was solid: 4.39 ERA, 2-to-1 K/BB, just six homers allowed in 15 starts.

 

I saw a lot of people using Pelfrey's poor start this year as justification for their complaints about his contract, and it always struck me as disingenuous. He was never healthy. If he was healthy and pitched badly, you could say the Twins screwed up, but I still believe that the guy we saw in the second half last season could be a decent value at $5.5 million as a fifth starter.

This kind of analysis ignores his pre-Twins career, though.  Pelfrey had multiple healthy ~80 ERA+ seasons with the Mets, so his 79 in 2013 isn't clearly explained by injury alone.

 

I think his current contract and roster spot is less about his pitching talent, and more a result of the Twins desperation, relative cheapness, and perhaps also Pelfrey being a "good guy" who shares Air Force and Oklahoma connections with the Twins manager.

 

That said, might as well give him a look as a reliever before dumping him.  I don't think his roster spot is super-critical yet, and he's probably not tradeable at this point.

Edited September 20, 2014 by spycake

[Thrylos]

Pelrey's 2013 stat line:  TBF  Hits  BAVGA  OBAA  BB                 K

 

                                       680   184  .300        .358    53 (7.8%)   101  (14.8%)

 

 

Does this look like a candidate for the bullpen? I don't think so.

 

Care to compare with Perkins' and Nathan's line their last year as starters?

[Kwak]

Care to compare with Perkins' and Nathan's line their last year as starters?

How any years did ittake for Perkins and Nathan to become competent relief pitchers?  Did they spend time in the minors in the transistion?  How old were they? (Younger?) Were they paid anything close to $5 MMat the time of their conversion? 

 

Pelfrey is a one-pitch thrower.  He doesn't miss many bats and he's too old to place in the minors to be retrained/requalified.  Plus, there is no reason to think he would accept his change--ala` Correia.  As posted earlier there is always  looking for a cheap starter--so find them and make a deal.  Let someone else pay to retrain Pelfrey as a relief guy.

[raindog]

When are people going to get it through their heads that a 4.39 ERA is no longer "solid" in this era of baseball? It's just bad.

 

But back to the point of the article, I do think he could make a good reliever. I hope the Twins have that in mind.

[Willihammer]

The average xFIP- of all qualified relievers in 2014 is 92.0.

 

The average xFIP- of qualified relievers who throw between 70% and 90% fastballs is 94.1 (n=25). Those with an average velocity above 95.0 mph (n=7) have an average xFIP- of 86.9. Those with an average FB velocity between 93.0 and 94.9 (n=8) have a xFIP- of 97.8. And those with an average FB velocity between 91 and 92.9 (n=6) have an average xFIP- of 101.6.

 

As reliant as Pelfrey is on the fastball, its going to come down to the radar gun. 95+ or bust.

Edited September 21, 2014 by Willihammer

[jorgenswest]

In the AL this year the k/bb ratio drops from 2.74 to 2.50 when moving from low to high leverage. The OPS against is actually .003 lower in high leverage situations. Pelfrey k/bb ratio drops from 2.19 to 1.02 when moving from low to high leverage. His OPS against increases from .716 to .801 over his career.

 

It is hard to see how he would be able to have a significant role in the pen beyond mop up.

[kab21]

Pitchers can completely change when moved to the bullpen.  Pelfrey has a few things that could make him a great reliever.  It's at least a plan where the Twins could get a little value out of him.  He has a chance to be a mediocre starter but that's the best case as a starter.

[bird]

There's no such thing as a "lock" for a rotation spot more than 6 months before the season even starts. Too much crap... most of it bad, assuming the Twins luck continues to run the way it has... can happen between now and Opening Day 2015.

 

You don't know what kind of pitcher Pelfrey will be in April and you can't be any more certain about any of the other rotation candidates. Injuries happen. Cutting him loose now, for no compelling reason, would just be stupid.  

 

If... BIG IF... there comes a point in the offseason when his 40 man roster spot is needed for a new FA or someone you trade for or to protect a young player from being lost in the Rule 5 draft, then yes, Pelfrey's spot is one you would have to consider opening up. But unless/until that happens, you bring him to ST with everyone else and you see whether he slots in somewhere based on everyone's performances and potential at that time.

Exactly. Why agonize about ANY of the half-dozen or so pitchers that represent much-needed rotation depth? I don't recall anyone specifically predicting that Pelfrey would be lost for the season, but we know what happens historically as far as injuries go. In spite of Pelfry's absence, in 2014 both the Twins rotation and the Rochester rotation were improved talent-wise over 2013. I expect to check bad a year from now and see another year of better talent in both Rochester and Minneapolis. None of us can predict if Pelfrey will factor into this.

[jorgenswest]

Pitchers can completely change when moved to the bullpen.  Pelfrey has a few things that could make him a great reliever.  It's at least a plan where the Twins could get a little value out of him.  He has a chance to be a mediocre starter but that's the best case as a starter.

I hope the a Twins build their bullpen without Pelfrey. I just looked at some recent Twin relievers and how they fared as starters in Perkins, Hawkins and Nathan. All three were failed starters. None of the three has showed more than normal difficulty in high leverage situations. I don't see how the Twins would consider pitching someone in relief where there are such obvious struggles in high leverage situations or with runners on base. While he may have a good ERA in the role, he is certain to give up a high rate of inherited runners. If he can't win a job in the starting rotation, they need to release him and develop a younger pitcher in relief that will eventually grow into a late inning role

[Linus]

On inside twins this morning, TR said only Hughes is a lock for the rotation next year. I got the distinct feeling he is not happy with the whole lot of them. My guess is that any role is going to be earned in spring training

[snepp]

He either brings enough velocity to land a spot in the pen somewhere, or he doesn't have a place on the team.

 

I have no interest in seeing him start another game.

[Riverbrian]

On inside twins this morning, TR said only Hughes is a lock for the rotation next year. I got the distinct feeling he is not happy with the whole lot of them. My guess is that any role is going to be earned in spring training

I hope he's frustrated... I also hope that saying "only Hughes is a lock"... I hope it isn't an example of that frustration. It sounds like the kind of thing you say when you are frustrated but it ends up not being the case when reality shines it light in a much calmer tomorrow.

 

I hope he truly means it and I hope we truly have a flat out competition for rotation spots in 2014. The Pitching has to improve or the arrival of Buxton and Sano will be marginalized.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

On inside twins this morning, TR said only Hughes is a lock for the rotation next year. I got the distinct feeling he is not happy with the whole lot of them. My guess is that any role is going to be earned in spring training

I was listening to that interview too - I don't think I heard Pelfrey's name mentioned even once. 

[nicksaviking]

Pelrey's 2013 stat line:  TBF  Hits  BAVGA  OBAA  BB                 K

 

                                       680   184  .300        .358    53 (7.8%)   101  (14.8%)

 

 

Does this look like a candidate for the bullpen? I don't think so.

 

Most bullpen arms are guys who stunk it up as starters.  Some figure it out and make a nice career for themselves (Perkins) others fade away (Frankie Rodriquez). 

 

Perkins by the way only took one year to go from terrible starter to competent relief pitcher.  2010 is decieving as he was bad in 13 relief appearances at the MLB level, but he was actually still starting in Rochester nearly all year long (and he was awful).  2011 was his out of options year and in his first year of full time relief role, he was fantastic.

[Linus]

I was listening to that interview too - I don't think I heard Pelfrey's name mentioned even once. 

Correct.  I think the reality is that Nolasco is in there but I think he was sincere in saying rotation spots will be earned in spring training regardless of where you pitched last year.  I took this to mean that May is no cinch to be in the rotation next year and that Meyer could be.

 

He also sounded aggravated that, when we have all these pitchers hanging around, we are giving spot starts to Swarzak.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Yeah, TR does not sound like he's a fan of Swarzak as a starter.