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Has Varland Won the 5th Starter Job? What Are the Options For DeSclafani?


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Louis Varland just went four innings, one hit, in his last spring training start. He has gone 11 innings in 4 appearances, 3 starts, and is given up a total of six hits and no runs. He's got 11 strikeouts, one walk, a spring training WHIP of 0.64, and an ERA of 0.00. I know spring training statistics are not necessarily predictive but you do have to ask yourself what a guy has to do to make the team. His primary competition, Anthony DeSclafani, has yet to pitch an inning in spring training. He is allegedly "ramping up" his bullpens but that's as far as he's gotten given what I think was shoulder pain (may have been elbow or forearm) at the beginning of spring training. You have to think that Varland has won a spot in the starting rotation with his performance.

Prediction: DeSclafani opens up the season on the Injured List. Varland opens up the season as the fifth starter and the Twins have all five starters pitching. There are no skipped starts due to off days. DeSclafani comes off the IL in 10 days, and then goes to AAA for the full 20 day rehab period to build up innings. At that point, there is a decision to be made but past history tells us that someone will be ineffective or need an IL stint to give DeSclafani a spot. It may be a bullpen spot if all of the starters are pitching well but I suspect there will be a spot. What do you guys think?

Question: Given DeSclafani's issues in spring training, he me need a longer Il stint than 10 days but probably doesn't need the full 60 days. Is there another option? Alternatively, if the only choices are a 10 day or 60 day IL designation, if we put him on the 60 day list can he come back sooner and pitch in the minors? In other words, could he be put on the 60 day list and thus off the 40 man roster, but come back to AAA in say 30 days and spend a month building back up? I know a lot of you guys know the rules really well so I'm curious because that seems to me to be the smart move. He's then ready around June 1 and by then we will be in need of another starter if for no other reason than Paddack will need a break. More likely, one of the top five will either be hurt or ineffective. Anybody know the answer?

23 Comments


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weneedneshek

Posted

This is quite the winding scenario you've concocted, i'll try to give my 2 cents.

There is no option between the 10 and 60 day list for pitchers, if he is placed on the 60 he cannot be put back on the 26 man roster until that time has elapsed. I am pretty sure he can still pitch in the minors before then though.

That being said, they will not place him on the 60 day unless he actually has an injury that requires it. To do that in order to try and finesse more starts for Varland would piss Desclafani off and the organization could get in trouble with the league.

Bottom line is that Disco will get every opportunity to start at the expense of Varland unless there are injuries or he sucks bad enough for long enough, which will certainly be longer than we would like.

sweetmusicviola16

Posted

DeSclafani has looked great hasn't he? Give the ball to Varland and don't look back.

Ober might soon be giving Pablo Lopez a run for his money as staff Ace. He too looks good,just might want to keep the innings down a bit.

Doctor Gast

Posted

Varland, deserves to be the 5th SP. But my guess the Twins will start with 4 SPs for the 1st month & then make the decision on Desclafani. Any chance he can pitch he'll pitch.

BSLinPA

Posted

Good time for a quick review.........position players placed on the IL must remain there for at least 10 days.  Pitchers and two-way players placed on the IL must remain there for at last 15 days.  This represents no change from 2023.  Placement on either of these ILs may be made retroactively for up to 3 days as long as said player has not appeared in a game.  The ability to apply the IL to a player retroactively is why teams often identify lightly injured players as "day to day".  If the player shows no significant signs of improvement within 3 days, the team can make a retroactive declaration.  Players on either of these ILs may be (and most always are) replaced on the 26 man active roster.

Injured position players, pitchers and two-way players may be placed on the 60 day IL.  A player on the 60 day IL does not count against the team's active or 40 man rosters.  Teams may (and often do) add another player to their 40 man roster.  

A player may be shifted from the 10 day/15 day IL to the 60 day IL, but not vice-versa.

Back in 2011, MLB instituted a 7 day IL as part of their concussion protocol; allowing for a slightly shorter IL stay for players sustaining a blow to the head. Such players may be placed on the longer ILs if needed to ensure their recovery.

Last and not least, players recovering from injuries on the 60 day IL may rehab in the minor leagues (while still on the injured list) to ramp up for re-appearing in the MLB.  Position players have up to 20 days, while pitchers and two-way players have up to 30 days.

Hope this refresher helps!!

 

arby58

Posted

It's worth recalling that last year, Ober started in AAA even though he had a similarly strong spring training as Varland this year. Unless DeSclafani is on the IL, he's going to start for the Twins, and Varland is going to start for the Saints - that is the organization's modus operandi. It worked out pretty well last year when they need to bring Ober up early in the season. 

It's still worth noting that Varland had his share of struggles during the regular season as a starter last year (and, as noted, spring training games don't mean that much). Some more AAA starts may prove worthwhile.

Rosterman

Posted

DeScar is on staff in someway, and the 5th starter when he is ready. But Varland is in the wings as Padddack and DeScar probably won't start 45 games between the two-of-them this season.

JD-TWINS

Posted

Not really sure DeSclafani will pitch for Twins EVER at this point. His history suggests maybe not.

Varland is the 5th starter if nothing else by default. However, he’s given up zero runs in 11 plus innings this Spring……….seems he’s earned the spot as well.

Really don’t understand all the comments about skipping a fifth starter often and Varland going up & down to “keep him active” in April. The TWINS SCHEDULE can’t be so unique that they are the only club in baseball to not have a fifth starter for most of a month! Everyone is concerned about innings totals with at least Ober & Paddack and we aren’t going to have a fifth starter in April because “they might get 5 or 6 days between starts” - do not get the logic nor concern.

Obviously, if DeSclafani is healthy by May 1 they probably need to give him a shot to help stretch everyone’s innings. Varland can go up & down so he’s the logical fluid guy.

To me, Louie is in rotation for sure on March 28 and there at least a month……….what happens if Varland is 3-1 with a 3.75 ERA through April???

DeSclafani to the 60 day from the 10 day has to be a 50/50 chance at this point. His innings help just as well mid-June through August IMO.

wabene

Posted

@arby58's got it right and I believe the organization's MO, as Arby put it, is correct as well. Yes Varland looks great. He easily could out perform Tony D this season. I want Louie as a starter if he can perform, no doubt. As much as we all want to see the best players play, the Twins have to play by MLB rules and try to create an advantage. Depth is crucial, just look at how many top pitchers have gone down already. The way it is set up if they want 6 or more big league caliber pitchers, with tight rosters, one, or more, have to be stashed in the minors. That guy will be the one with options even if he is the better pitcher. Dems da breaks. Either guy can't just be stashed in the MLB bullpen either. Starters have their routines and they must adhere to them. 6 starters or piggy backing ain't happening either. Twins management prefers 5 man rotations and skipping starts when possible to give guys a rest. I believe they will try to get all they can out of DeSclafani. This won't be a situation like Gallo where an underperforming player hangs around. If DeScalfani isn't pitching well it is because he is not healthy and someone else will get their chance. I could see LA's scenario playing out with DeScalfani starting on the IL.

Varland pitched around 150 innings the last 2 years and it would've been more last year if he hadn't been moved to the pen for the stretch run. The guy is a horse with no injury history. He does not have an innings limit. 

LA Vikes Fan

Posted

21 hours ago, BSLinPA said:

Good time for a quick review.........position players placed on the IL must remain there for at least 10 days.  Pitchers and two-way players placed on the IL must remain there for at last 15 days.  This represents no change from 2023.  Placement on either of these ILs may be made retroactively for up to 3 days as long as said player has not appeared in a game.  The ability to apply the IL to a player retroactively is why teams often identify lightly injured players as "day to day".  If the player shows no significant signs of improvement within 3 days, the team can make a retroactive declaration.  Players on either of these ILs may be (and most always are) replaced on the 26 man active roster.

Injured position players, pitchers and two-way players may be placed on the 60 day IL.  A player on the 60 day IL does not count against the team's active or 40 man rosters.  Teams may (and often do) add another player to their 40 man roster.  

A player may be shifted from the 10 day/15 day IL to the 60 day IL, but not vice-versa.

Back in 2011, MLB instituted a 7 day IL as part of their concussion protocol; allowing for a slightly shorter IL stay for players sustaining a blow to the head. Such players may be placed on the longer ILs if needed to ensure their recovery.

Last and not least, players recovering from injuries on the 60 day IL may rehab in the minor leagues (while still on the injured list) to ramp up for re-appearing in the MLB.  Position players have up to 20 days, while pitchers and two-way players have up to 30 days.

Hope this refresher helps!!

 

Very helpful, thanks. I vote that DeSclafani goes on the 60 day IL, and uses the full 30 day ramp up period in St. Paul to be ready to pitch in Minnesota on about June 1. Varland in the rotation until then we'll see where we are on June 1. . 

mikelink45

Posted

He has the number five slot in my mind, but my mind does not count for much in the world of contracts and MLB.  I always take the young go over the mediocre vet.  So good luck Louie - I wish I could call the shots for you 

IndianaTwin

Posted

Um, if DeSclafini is indeed increasing his workload, there’s no way they put him on the 60-day IL and commit to not using him until the end of May. They also don’t risk the wrath of the MLBPA by indiscriminately putting him there.

Second, there’s no reason to put anyone on the 60-day IL unless you need an open spot on the 40-man roster. I haven’t been following spring training closely, but it doesn’t sound like there’s any non-roster invitee banging on the door. 

 

EDIT to add: The March 13 injury update on MLB.com says DeSclafini is scheduled to pitch on March 16 and is still expected to be ready by Opening Day. Keep in mind that “Opening Day” for a No. 5 starter doesn’t come until April 3.

Parfigliano

Posted

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Um, if DeSclafini is indeed increasing his workload, there’s no way they put him on the 60-day IL and commit to not using him until the end of May. They also don’t risk the wrath of the MLBPA by indiscriminately putting him there.

Second, there’s no reason to put anyone on the 60-day IL unless you need an open spot on the 40-man roster. I haven’t been following spring training closely, but it doesn’t sound like there’s any non-roster invitee banging on the door. 

 

EDIT to add: The March 13 injury update on MLB.com says DeSclafini is scheduled to pitch on March 16 and is still expected to be ready by Opening Day. Keep in mind that “Opening Day” for a No. 5 starter doesn’t come until April 3.

So DeScalf to the mound tomorrow.

Fatbat

Posted

We got 2 weeks to see if his shoulder barks at him.  IF it does, he would be headed for the 60day probably after starting on the 10 day. They will slow walk his il stint if indeed he needs one. Who knows the future but I would guess that he will be available to start on 4/3 and Varland will be available if he has to miss that start. Very doubtful the twins skip the 5th starter based on slow schedule. The top 3 guys have plenty of season to get to 30 starts. 

DuluthFan

Posted

I'm fairly certain that a player on the 10/15 day IL can stay on the IL longer than the 10/15 day minimum. There is no need to put the player on the 60 day IL unless you need to make room on the 40-man roster so you can call up a non-roster player to the 26-man MLB roster.

wabene

Posted

Per Phil Miller of the Strib, "Anthony DeSclafani pitched 1⅔ innings in a Class AAA spring game, striking out three Rays while walking two of the eight batters he faced.

The righthander, who has yet to pitch in a Grapefruit League game after battling elbow soreness early in camp, reached 94 mph with his fastball and struck out two batters with off-speed pitches."

You can never have enough pitching. 

Fatbat

Posted

59 minutes ago, wabene said:

Per Phil Miller of the Strib, "Anthony DeSclafani pitched 1⅔ innings in a Class AAA spring game, striking out three Rays while walking two of the eight batters he faced.

The righthander, who has yet to pitch in a Grapefruit League game after battling elbow soreness early in camp, reached 94 mph with his fastball and struck out two batters with off-speed pitches."

You can never have enough pitching. 

That sounds like he will be just fine to take his start in the 5th game on April 3rd after 2 more ST starts.  You can never have enough pitching. 

stringer bell

Posted

Good news that DeSclafani pitched yesterday. I firmly believe he is more than a suspect innings-eater if he is healthy and the Twins need starting pitching beyond the four projected to start the season in the rotation. I'm quite skeptical that his elbow will survive all season since he didn't have surgery, only rest and a PRP injection.

Using DeSclafani in a minor league game keeps the Twins' options open. If he has a setback he can be placed on the 15-day IL and presumably Varland would start in his place. If they feel he needs more time before he starts for the fifth game of the season, they could also put him on the IL and he might make one start in the minors (some place warmer--Wichita or Ft. Myers--not sure when those minor league seasons begin or he could just stay in Ft. Myers and work out with the minor leaguers. They also could bypass the fifth starter once due to off days and perhaps have a bullpen game for the first time a fifth starter would be needed (April 8), but that is based on games happening on schedule, which isn't always a thing in Minnesota in April. 

 

LA Vikes Fan

Posted

Well I guess we can close up this thread. DeSclafani going to Il and it looks like it may be a significant injury. Could be a TJ surgery on the horizon.  

Schmoeman5

Posted

This wasn't unexpected at all. They put the lipstick on it. But it didn't work.

JD-TWINS

Posted

Looks like Louie is a lock!

SWR/Festa in some combination ready by mid-May to come up & spot start to keep everyone fresh.

Louie 120 innings spread over 5.5 months. 22 innings per month and then to the Pen September 15th.

SWR throwing 2 starts back to back over 10 days………4 times through the season. 40-45 innings. Festa with a similar load totaling 40-45 innings.

That’s 210 innings between these 3 guys with no heavy work load. Seems reasonable.

Canterino - DeSclafani - Thielbar all questionable for ANY action in ‘24. ……Duran with a body injury - hope he’s healed in 6-8 weeks!

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