Matthew Boyd

[Coobelz]

I'm going to play a little devils advocate here on Boyd. It seems the majority is in favor of unloading top prospects for him. I personally feel he's peaked.

 

His last 8 starts are as follows:

 

Cle: 6 IP 5 ER 0 BB 8K
KC:  7 IP 4 ER 4 BB 10 K
CWS: 5.1 IP 4 ER 0 BB 13 K
Tex: 7 IP 4 ER 1 BB 11K
Cle: 6 IP 5 ER 2 BB 6K
KC: 4 IP 4ER 2BB 6K
MN: 7IP 3ER 0BB 8K
ATL: 5IP 3 ER 0BB 9K

 

The K/BB ratio is fantastic, I will give you that. However, his only quality start came against us and he has not been dominant since May. Additionally, these are not top tier teams he has been facing of late. I do not see this as a guy who puts us over the top (not even sure he'd crack our top 3 SP the ways he's been trending downward.  

 

Just some food for thought. 

[SwainZag]

 

I'm going to play a little devils advocate here on Boyd. It seems the majority is in favor of unloading top prospects for him. I personally feel he's peaked.

 

His last 8 starts are as follows:

 

Cle: 6 IP 5 ER 0 BB 8K
KC:  7 IP 4 ER 4 BB 10 K
CWS: 5.1 IP 4 ER 0 BB 13 K
Tex: 7 IP 4 ER 1 BB 11K
Cle: 6 IP 5 ER 2 BB 6K
KC: 4 IP 4ER 2BB 6K
MN: 7IP 3ER 0BB 8K
ATL: 5IP 3 ER 0BB 9K

 

The K/BB ratio is fantastic, I will give you that. However, his only quality start came against us and he has not been dominant since May. Additionally, these are not top tier teams he has been facing of late. I do not see this as a guy who puts us over the top (not even sure he'd crack our top 3 SP the ways he's been trending downward.  

 

Just some food for thought. 

 

In those starts he gave up 14 HR, which he hadn't really done all season as well.

[dex8425]

Madbum is pitching really well. Course that makes  sense for a team that has won 15 of 18 or something ridiculous like that. 

[nicksaviking]

I'm hopeful the rest of the league comes back down from cloud 9 regarding this guy; I really don't want the Tigers to swindle another team for a boatload of prospects.

 

Unless it's Cleveland.

 

To be fair though, as much as I don't like Boyd because of his lack of any usable off speed pitch, if/when in a year or so from now his new two-pitch-mix blows up in his face and has cratered his value, I'd love for the Twins to swoop in and grab him at a low point and stick him in the pen. Lots of similarities to Andrew Miller, Zack Britton and Glen Perkins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm hopeful the rest of the league comes back down from cloud 9 regarding this guy; I really don't want the Tigers to swindle another team for a boatload of prospects.

 

Unless it's Cleveland.

 

To be fair though, as much as I don't like Boyd because of his lack of any usable off speed pitch, if/when in a year or so from now his new two-pitch-mix blows up in his face and has cratered his value, I'd love for the Twins to swoop in and grab him at a low point and stick him in the pen. Lots of similarities to Andrew Miller, Zack Britton and Glen Perkins.

 

I'm somewhat curious where you get that he only has 2 pitches. He wouldn't have made it this long as a starter with only 2 pitches. This is his second full season in the majors by the way, though he did do long stints in 2016 and 2017. You need to balance this with the fact that he's perhaps now at 3 years of service time. Most players take some lumps during that timeframe... Boyd is no different there... but I'd add if he only has 2 pitches, he wouldn't have pitched like this at all. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

In those starts he gave up 14 HR, which he hadn't really done all season as well.

 

That's a rate that was pretty good in the minors (though based on the AAA MLB ball experiment, that's probably worth questioning). To his credit, he has dropped that rate pretty consistently until this year... and prior to the last few starts, he was on pace to see it drop again.

 

That could be a case of regression. It could also be MLB figuring it out. I'd prefer the later b/c presumably that's something he can adjust...  What you have to like is that K rate and BB rate. He's clearly got swing and miss stuff in there and the ability to keep the ball in and around the strike zone. 

[SwainZag]

 

That's a rate that was pretty good in the minors (though based on the AAA MLB ball experiment, that's probably worth questioning). To his credit, he has dropped that rate pretty consistently until this year... and prior to the last few starts, he was on pace to see it drop again.

 

That could be a case of regression. It could also be MLB figuring it out. I'd prefer the later b/c presumably that's something he can adjust...  What you have to like is that K rate and BB rate. He's clearly got swing and miss stuff in there and the ability to keep the ball in and around the strike zone. 

 

Yeah that's a good take.  I wasn't insinuating anything by it, just thought it was interesting.  He is really intriguing to me being left handed, having control and of course the swing and miss stuff.  

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm somewhat curious where you get that he only has 2 pitches. He wouldn't have made it this long as a starter with only 2 pitches. This is his second full season in the majors by the way, though he did do long stints in 2016 and 2017. You need to balance this with the fact that he's perhaps now at 3 years of service time. Most players take some lumps during that timeframe... Boyd is no different there... but I'd add if he only has 2 pitches, he wouldn't have pitched like this at all. 

 

Well BrooksBaseball mostly. His first three years in the league he threw his curve and change combined about 30-40% of the time. Last year that figure went down to about 20% and this year it's down to 10%. And looking at the results for both of those pitches on both BrooksBaseball and Fangraphs, it seems  likely that he's nearly stopped using them because they aren't any good.

 

[jkcarew]

To me it seems reasonable to question whether he'd be a needle-mover in this post season.

 

On the other hand, would I like Boyd as a piece in the rotation for the remaining 4 years (2020-2023) of his contract. YES. He'll help you get to the post-season. And you'd get 4 years of that. And that's why Detroit is asking for a high price...they'll either get it, or they won't trade him. If someone get's him at the deadline for an 'inflated' price, and then...for example...he does little/nothing to help in this post season, the acquiring team still has 4 years of a pretty good left-handed starter (age 28-32)...not a bad consolation prize.

[markos]

 

Well BrooksBaseball mostly. His first three years in the league he threw his curve and change combined about 30-40% of the time. Last year that figure went down to about 20% and this year it's down to 10%. And looking at the results for both of those pitches on both BrooksBaseball and Fangraphs, it seems  likely that he's nearly stopped using them because they aren't any good.

You brought the two-pitch issue up in another thread (at least I think it was you), and I did a little research - basically looking at qualified starters over the past three seasons, and ranked them by highest percentage using fastball-slider combo. Boyd is high up on the list this season, coming in at #11 with 89%. But others ahead and behind him are pretty good pitchers: Patrick Corbin has 3 seasons higher than Boyd; Chris Archer, Lance Lynn and Jhoulys Chacin all have seasons ahead of him as well. In the 15 or so names directly after him, one finds Luis Severino, Robbie Ray, Chris Sale.

 

I think the key point with Boyd right now is that he isn't showing any major platoon split despite using fastball-slider against righties. His strikeout rates are almost identical for each side.

[nicksaviking]

 

You brought the two-pitch issue up in another thread (at least I think it was you), and I did a little research - basically looking at qualified starters over the past three seasons, and ranked them by highest percentage using fastball-slider combo. Boyd is high up on the list this season, coming in at #11 with 89%. But others ahead and behind him are pretty good pitchers: Patrick Corbin has 3 seasons higher than Boyd; Chris Archer, Lance Lynn and Jhoulys Chacin all have seasons ahead of him as well. In the 15 or so names directly after him, one finds Luis Severino, Robbie Ray, Chris Sale.

 

I think the key point with Boyd right now is that he isn't showing any major platoon split despite using fastball-slider against righties. His strikeout rates are almost identical for each side.

 

Yeah, some guys get away with running mostly two pitches, Patrick Corbin for instance was someone I was not in favor of last offseason, but that was mostly due to what I perceived as an over-reliance on the slider which I thought was a big injury red flag. However, I was about as big of a Lance Lynn detractor as there was from day one, lack of off speed pitches being the only reason. If Boyd had a history of success like Ray or Sale, maybe I'd have some faith, but his only bright spot is two months of modest success, he's been pretty terrible his entire career outside of April and May of this year.

 

Who would he even bump from the rotation? Martin Perez has even been better than Boyd has been since June. He's in his fifth year now, and he hasn't done anything remotely similar in his career, to what those other pitchers listed have done.

[Roaddog]

If I'm trading prospects, I want better than Boyd. I'm not saying he's bad, but I'd prefer Stroman at this point.

[HawksNest]

Detroit seems to be completely off their rocker....one of their beat reporters tweeted that they've asked the Nationals for Carter Kieboom (top 20 global prospect) in exchange for Shane Greene...

 

Completely non-realistic, ridiculous ask from Detroit.

 

That's why no trades have happened so far, teams that are selling are not seriously negotiating with anyone yet.

[nicksaviking]

 

Detroit seems to be completely off their rocker....one of their beat reporters tweeted that they've asked the Nationals for Carter Kieboom (top 20 global prospect) in exchange for Shane Greene...

 

That's why no trades have happened so far, teams that are selling are not seriously negotiating with anyone yet.

 

Yeah, that's frustrating.

 

But if the Twins were in that spot, I'd want them to squeeze every ounce of prospect out of the Nationals too.

[HawksNest]

 

Yeah, that's frustrating.

 

But if the Twins were in that spot, I'd want them to squeeze every ounce of prospect out of the Nationals too.

 

Well, yeah, if you were a Tigers fan you'd want to make that deal in a heartbeat. 100 out of 100 times.

 

Also, Mike Rizzo would have to be high to make that trade.

[jorgenswest]

Detroit is wise to set the bar high for their better pieces this far from the deadline.

 

There are more buyers for relievers of Greene’s tier than sellers.

[notoriousgod71]

I have no idea what the infatuation is with Boyd. He has never been particularly good and still isn't this year. He gives up a ton of home runs as he always does. He is striking a lot of guys out this year but everyone strikes a lot of guys out in 2019.

 

You need to set your sights higher than Boyd if you want to contend. Much higher.

[USAFChief]

Yeah, I don't think I'd spend much on Boyd.

[jorgenswest]

Yeah, I don't think I'd spend much on Boyd.

Which available pitchers will you spend whatever it takes to win the trade?

[USAFChief]

 

Which available pitchers will you spend whatever it takes to win the trade?

Probably Smith and Giles.

 

I don't know that there's a starter available that will make a big impact. But I think the Twins can massively impact their bullpen, which, IMO, is a big deal in today's baseball.

 

Every team, in both leagues, uses multiple relievers pretty much every game. Win that battle most nights, and you win a lot of games. I don't see that changing in the post season.

 

I'd bite off a decent size chunk of Greinke's contract if it came at little prospect cost. He's still a pretty dang reliable starter.

 

I'd go hard after Bumgarner, if he's even available any more, but not at "whatever cost." A pretty steep cost, but I would have a stopping point.

[jorgenswest]

Probably Smith and Giles.

 

I don't know that there's a starter available that will make a big impact. But I think the Twins can massively impact their bullpen, which, IMO, is a big deal in today's baseball.

 

Every team, in both leagues, uses multiple relievers pretty much every game. Win that battle most nights, and you win a lot of games. I don't see that changing in the post season.

 

I'd bite off a decent size chunk of Greinke's contract if it came at little prospect cost. He's still a pretty dang reliable starter.

 

I'd go hard after Bumgarner, if he's even available any more, but not at "whatever cost." A pretty steep cost, but I would have a stopping point.

It would be great to add a reliever to the top of the pen. It would also be great to add Bumgarner. I would pay up to win those deals.

 

I would add that if we aren’t hurting some from the loss of prospects then the Twins did not do enough at the deadline.

[Coobelz]

Probably Smith and Giles.

 

I don't know that there's a starter available that will make a big impact. But I think the Twins can massively impact their bullpen, which, IMO, is a big deal in today's baseball.

 

Every team, in both leagues, uses multiple relievers pretty much every game. Win that battle most nights, and you win a lot of games. I don't see that changing in the post season.

 

I'd bite off a decent size chunk of Greinke's contract if it came at little prospect cost. He's still a pretty dang reliable starter.

 

I'd go hard after Bumgarner, if he's even available any more, but not at "whatever cost." A pretty steep cost, but I would have a stopping point.

[Coobelz]

Scherzer. I’d trade Royce in a minute for him!

[alarp33]

 

Scherzer. I’d trade Royce in a minute for him!

 

I'd trade Royce for Mike Trout too, who's about as likely as Scherzer is to be traded

[ashbury]

I'd trade Royce for Mike Trout too, who's about as likely as Scherzer is to be traded

Yeah, check the standings. After starting 19-31, Washington now leads the wild card race, and is hardly out of the picture to take the division outright. To get Scherzer, we'd have to include Brian Duensing as a sweetener, and we don't have him anymore!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

To get Scherzer, we'd have to include Brian Duensing as a sweetener, and we don't have him anymore!

Duensing has been a free agent since June 19th -- what are we waiting for?!?!