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    Will the "Golden At-Bat" Be the Thing That Finally Destroys Baseball?


    Matthew Lenz

    Recently, Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred joined Puck Sports Correspondent John Ourand to discuss a variety of topics related to the future of the game. One of those discussions led to Manfred dropping a nugget from the Owner’s Meetings about implementing a Golden At-Bat rule. What are the details surrounding this possible rule change, and would it help reinvigorate the game of baseball?

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    For many years now, many have considered baseball to be a game in need of a makeover in order to keep up with how people (especially young people) consume sports and entertainment. To the chagrin of boomers everywhere, the (umm) "beauty"  of a three-plus-hour game just doesn’t hold the attention of the younger generations, who crave fast-paced, instantaneous entertainment. In recent years, MLB has introduced a variety of rules aimed at making the game quicker and more exciting, including:

    • Introducing a pitch clock,
    • Requiring relievers to either finish an inning or face at least three hitters
    • Limiting the number of pitchers a team can carry,
    • Putting a guy on 2nd base to start extra innings. 
    • Restricting mound visits and pick-off attempts, and
    • Embiggening the bases

    Each of these has led to positive returns in both the pace of play and the number of fans tuning into and attending baseball games. While we expect more changes, such as an electronic strike zone, Manfred’s newest idea of a “Golden At-Bat” is almost too gimmicky to be taken seriously.

    In short, the idea is that a team could send their best hitter to the plate regardless of where their spot was in the batting order once a game. So instead of (say) Christian Vázquez being forced to hit in a crucial at-bat, the Twins could use their “Golden At-Bat” and have Royce Lewis get the chance instead. In the words of Manfred, the powers that be are “in the conversation-only stage right now”, so we don’t have much additional insight into the idea being floated around. While it may be nothing more than just a thought bubble on a comic strip, though, the fact that Manfred was comfortable enough sharing the idea in such a public way makes me think that it could grow some legs and one day be a real thing. While I’m open to (and even a proponent of) change, this idea is too far from the figurative “spirit” of the game.

    In no other sport is a team limited in whom they can rely on in a clutch moment like they are in baseball. Need a two-minute drive to win a football game? Okay, put your best offense out there and substitute between plays as needed. Need to lock down the best shooter in the NBA? Okay, sub in your best perimeter defender. Heck, even in hockey, teams get to choose who and in what order their skaters shoot in a shootout. But baseball is different. In baseball, if your sub-.600 OPS hitter is at the plate with the game on the line, you might be able to pinch-hit—but who’s to say that hitter is much better? And unlike in the sports mentioned above, the pinch-hitter is rarely going to be the best option; they’re usually just the better of two bad alternatives. That’s one of the things that makes baseball unique.

    Who is Aaron Boone, if not for his unexpected heroics in the 2003 American League Championship Series? Bucky Dent, Bill Mazeroski, and Gene Larkin are not famous as consistently excellent sluggers. On the contrary, their fan bases will remember them forever as players who came through in huge moments, despite being modest hitters. If we conform to other leagues in this way, what are we going to do next, let hitters toss the ball to themselves instead of being the only sport where the defense controls the pace of the ball?

    Aside from my beef of fundamentally changing the game of baseball, the consequences of this rule would have a negative impact on players. Assuming that the Golden At-Bat is largely used in high-leverage situations, this puts more strain on the bullpen, especially the best relievers, which could have negative repercussions both on their performance and on their physical wellbeing. On the other side of the ball, how do you manage the message you’re sending to the player who was "supposed" to bat? How do you manage the message you’re sending to the player(s) who weren’t selected for the “Golden At-Bat”? How do those decisions impact the clubhouse? Finally, how does a younger player establish themselves as worthy of the “Golden At-Bat,” if they’ve been limited in their high-leverage opportunities for the first part of their career? Some of these are relatively fun and interesting questions, and would deepen the strategic latticework of the game, but others of them expose the basic inconsistency between this proposed rule and the historical nature of baseball.

    Of course, like almost anything with sports, these are all questions that only get asked if the Golden At-Bat doesn’t work. If Joe Mauer delivers the winning hit in Game 163 in 2009, rather than Alexi Casilla, does the latter balk or the decision get second-guessed? Likely not. But baseball is a game of failure, The Golden At-Bat is going to fail more often than not, and that’s going to create more problems than answers. As the powers that be have recently discovered, there are simpler ways to improve the game that don’t change the very fabric of the game. While I can appreciate the creativity and openness to try new things, let’s hope this idea is saved for the Savannah Bananas.


    What are your thoughts on the Golden At-Bat? Do you have any outlandish rule change ideas? Join the conversation in the comments!

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    The other recent rule changes were done primarily as a way to offset coaching and strategy trends that had negatively impacted the game (i.e. limiting the shift, limiting the amount of pitcher substitutions, and trying to ensure speed, baserunning, and stealing remained relevant).  These changes were very successful because they were helped to return the game to its roots.  The one exception to that is the Ghost Runner in extra innings, but that was probably worthwhile in order to end the occasional marathon games that would occur.

    This proposed change is just idiotic in so many ways.  Think of the impact it could have in player statistics, which is one of the great advantages that baseball has over other sports.  I wonder how many extra HR's or RBI's Aaron Judge would get in a season if he was given an extra plate appearance every game.

     

    2 hours ago, umterp23 said:

    So a scenario of what ifs was played out I think in a The Athletic article that said what if you are Bobby Witt Jr gets the golden bat to start the 9th inning from a poor 9th in the lineup hitter.  He either strikes out or gets a base hit.  Now lets say he gets a hit, a double.  They pitch run for him and guess what he is back at the plate as the leadoff hitter.  Gets 2 for the price of 1 plate appearances.  Or he strikeouts but still stays at the plate to take his normal turn.

    Next thing you will get is team A has hit too many homers and the next one is an automatic out when they blast one.  Beer softball leagues here we come under this clowns leadership.

     

     

    You can certainly take the 'what ifs' out of the equation within the rule. They did that with the DH - situations where the DH plays in the field and the pitcher then has to bat. I don't have a problem with the Witt situation described, but if that is the 'deal breaker' you could make it so that a player who is on base cannot be the Golden Bat. The 'hit too many homeruns' nonsense is the fallacy of absurdity.

    38 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

    But to tie back to the overly-sensational headline, the same thing that kills the numbers with the youngers is the same thing that will destroy the game-namely the TV situation.  

    The youngers don’t consume on the TVs and we see that money going away already.  They will just watch the golden batter on the reels or Toks like they consume highlights today.  No long form attention means no long term advertising money.  More sound bites isn’t the fix if they can’t monetize it.

    I’m also not to sure the NBA and NFL are good comps for baseball.  It’s just different and slow and steady is probably the better way.  The NFL and NBA are riding bubbles while MLB has already burst.  Don’t chase, don’t pervert the game when there are so many things to try first. I’d rather see the uniform look like NASCAR than this. 

    Agreed. Why risk alienating your existing fans chasing a demographic that you’re likely never to fully capture? Baseball is a boomerang sport. They get introduced to it as a kid, maybe they play baseball or softball as well. Then they go off to do other things because they’re teenagers/college aged and you’re not going to sit for 3 hours watching baseball multiple times a week. Then they come back at a later age when life has settled down a bit more. 

    10 minutes ago, JCT66 said:

    The other recent rule changes were done primarily as a way to offset coaching and strategy trends that had negatively impacted the game (i.e. limiting the shift, limiting the amount of pitcher substitutions, and trying to ensure speed, baserunning, and stealing remained relevant).  These changes were very successful because they were helped to return the game to its roots.  The one exception to that is the Ghost Runner in extra innings, but that was probably worthwhile in order to end the occasional marathon games that would occur.

    This proposed change is just idiotic in so many ways.  Think of the impact it could have in player statistics, which is one of the great advantages that baseball has over other sports.  I wonder how many extra HR's or RBI's Aaron Judge would get in a season if he was given an extra plate appearance every game.

     

    Again, this is one use per game, so the potential impact on statistics is pretty small. For that matter, you could make part of the rule that the Golden At Bat does not count for statistical purposes, if that is the deal breaker. 

    Question: how exactly does the DH 'return the game to its roots?' Answer: it does not. As Heraclitus noted, 2,500 years ago, the only constant is change.

    While the thought of that change makes me want to puke, it would be a way to level the salary disparity across the league.   Technically depth would be a little less important if your best batsman took the biggest at bat in the game.  

    Horrible idea. How many asterisks do we need added to career stats and record books?

    Maybe what baseball needs is Billy Martin. He'd have his pitcher drill a "golden batter". Now that would be entertaining.

    Baseball is getting to be a comical game of errors starting with the owners and manfredball   ...

    Strategy has been taken away and replaced by sabermetrics ,  is another comical of errors ...

    The twins have had no strategy in playing the game since Rocco has been manager  , except the homerun  and they are mostly solo's ...

    The strategy should be to make contact and hit it where they ain't  , get on base and then hit the game changing homerun  ...

    The way the game is played today I see less and less players that deserve to be in Cooperstown HOF ...

    55 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    That's not Manfred. That's front offices. The recent rule changes he's implemented are actually trying to combat that. I agree the game is less entertaining with the 3 true outcomes, dying of the starting pitcher, etc. but that isn't Manfred, it's the front offices. And ticket prices don't go up because starting pitchers cost more. They go up because they can. That's simple economics. Prices go as high as the market dictates they can go to maximize owner profits. People stop paying the prices and owners will stop raising the prices.

    Yes, the change in play is not from Manfred but from mainly front offices.  We used to care about batting average, now it is looked down on as a bad stat to evaluate a player.  Money Ball brought in the OBP as a number people cared about.  Then it evolved to OPS.  Players with high OPS were getting paid more.  So the players said well if teams do not care that I can hit a singles for high average but they would rather I get some more extra base hits, I need to change to get more extra base hits. 

    As to the ticket price point, I have long said the players get paid what the fans dictate.  If fans stop watching baseball the prices will have to go down and players will have to get paid less.  Owners will not pay players more than what they are bringing in, for the most part. If fans stopped attending, watching on TV and stopped buying gear, the league would fold in 2 years because owners would stop giving the money. 

    In my old age my first reaction to any change is not a positive one. This won’t keep me from watching baseball though.

    On the positive side this rule change will give opportunity for more in game engagement about how to utilize that one golden at bat. It will likely provide more exciting moments over a season. Elite defenders may get more opportunity as teams will know they can bat for them in a key spot during the game,

    There is a downside though. Teams that can afford the elite game changing players are going to benefit more. The wealthy teams will have an Ohtani to use in that extra at bat. Over the course of the season that will be a great advantage. Records will be broken. Elite players may approach 800 players appearances in a season. I think it will increase the divide between the large and small market teams and that will not help.

    Maybe a better solution to generate more engagement and exciting moments is to allow reentry. A player reentering would need to be in the same spot in the batting order. If Larnach hits for Vazquez in the 9th spot then they can use either player in that 9th spot. Vazquez can return and they can alternate but both can’t be in the game at the same time. I think it could generate debate about how to best utilize those spots. I don’t think it increases the divide between the large and small market teams. Teams that roster wisely and deploy their players wisely should gain an advantage. It isn’t going to impact the individual single season records. It would not add time to the game unless it was decided that pitchers could reenter. We have enough injuries to pitchers as it is. Let’s not have reentry for pitchers.

    I prefer this solution but I still don’t like change. I will keep watching though.

     

    No way.....this is so absurd. The Savanah Bananas are show biz Harlem Globetrotter-esk baseball. As stated in earlier posts the man on second to start the 10th is hard enough pill to swallow. How this even made it to a conversation stage by the powers that be. Do keep this off our manicured fields - YES in this case I am that mid-60's - GET OFF MY LAWN GUY!

    1 hour ago, arby58 said:

    Again, this is one use per game, so the potential impact on statistics is pretty small. For that matter, you could make part of the rule that the Golden At Bat does not count for statistical purposes, if that is the deal breaker. 

    Question: how exactly does the DH 'return the game to its roots?' Answer: it does not. As Heraclitus noted, 2,500 years ago, the only constant is change.

    One use per game is 162 extra PAs. That's not "pretty small". Judge hit a HR every 12 PAs last year. Another 162 PAs would lead to another 13 or 14 HRs. Now he's threatening the HR record (71 or 72 total). In 2022 he hit one every 11 PAs. If he had another 162 PAs he'd have hit another 15. That would've had him at 77 HRs on the year. Now he's set the HR record. (This all obviously ignores time missed to injuries, etc.)

    "Does not count for statistical purposes?" Yeah, pretending things didn't actually happen has never really worked. If Aaron Judge hits 77 HRs in a season with the extra "Golden Bat" ABs people are going to debate the legitimacy of the record, but they aren't going to say he hit 62 HRs, they're going to say he hit 77 HRs. Because he hit 77 HRs. The back of his baseball card is going to say he hit 77 HRs. 

    162 extra times stepping to the plate is a significant number of extra times stepping to the plate.

    Glad at least one other "boomer" pointed out that games weren't traditionally 3 hours long (4 freakin' hours when you got to playoffs). I was all for shortening the games through a clock and rule enforcement. Don't care for the anti-shift rule, because it makes the game stupider (seriously, if you insist on pulling the ball into 6 defenders you deserve to be out).

    The Golden At Bat strikes me as a stupid gimmick to insert artificial drama. I don't really worry about any of the objections in the OP since we are talking probably once-a-game. Most MLB players get pinch-hit for in a game at some point; many have others chosen to hit over them; egos don't shatter. Pitchers get good players out, and sometimes get beat by them. If one at-bat per game crumbles their well-being they are probably in the wrong profession. But it will have little impact on most games, so it adds little extra incentive to watch if you aren't already.

    Plus I can already see Rocco sending some light-hitting lefty up to hit for Correa in the playoffs, because a righty is on the mound.

     

    Always good to have conversation, but the fact we are even discussing something so absurd is testimony to the damage caused by Manfred in his reign of terror as he does the bidding of the owners.

    Can you imagine the NBA having a designated free throw shooter or the NHL having a shootout to determine who wins ...... oh wait. Nevermind.

    What a great idea!

    And in the NFL, if you're behind by 8 points or less and the game is at or under the 2:00 minute mark, the losing team's QB stands at the 50 yard line with no pass rush allowed, and the best WR gets to go one on one with a DB to see if they can score on a bomb. You know, just to keep things interesting. 

    In the NBA, no more overtime! Have a dunk contest to determine the winner. You could have a "dunk specialist" on your bench just for tie games.

    While we're at it, let's forget extra innings for baseball. Just too boring. Imagine watching the highlights on ESPN of a HR contest to determine the winner!

    It's just a ridiculous,  little league/softball league change that will never happened. Someone brought it up over a 3 martini lunch and Manfred thought it was worth mentioning publicly. 

    It isn't. 

    2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    Baseball is getting to be a comical game of errors starting with the owners and manfredball   ...

    Strategy has been taken away and replaced by sabermetrics ,  is another comical of errors ...

    The twins have had no strategy in playing the game since Rocco has been manager  , except the homerun  and they are mostly solo's ...

    The strategy should be to make contact and hit it where they ain't  , get on base and then hit the game changing homerun  ...

    The way the game is played today I see less and less players that deserve to be in Cooperstown HOF ...

    That's why they are busy busy lowering HOF standards

    2 hours ago, Trov said:

    Yes, the change in play is not from Manfred but from mainly front offices.  We used to care about batting average, now it is looked down on as a bad stat to evaluate a player.  Money Ball brought in the OBP as a number people cared about.  Then it evolved to OPS.  Players with high OPS were getting paid more.  So the players said well if teams do not care that I can hit a singles for high average but they would rather I get some more extra base hits, I need to change to get more extra base hits. 

    We used to care about batting average, then Branch Rickey figured out something better. He published it in 1954 in LIFE magazine.

    Goodby to Some Old Baseball Ideas

    Was Branch Rickey the Father of Sabermetrics? « The Captain's Blog

    Quote

    The first part of the formula, which represents On Base Percentage, isn’t particularly ground breaking. Although Rickey’s era was dominated by regard for batting average, the value of OBP was well understood at the time. After all, a 1933 column by John Lardner refers to the “ancient ivory adage: a walk is as good as a hit”, so appreciation for bases on balls has long been a part of the game (for the record, Rickey believed a walk was 75% as good as a hit during his era).

    The second part of equation, however, is very interesting. It begins with the formula for isolated power (ISO), which is a modern sabermetric staple. Incredibly, not only was Rickey using the calculation in 1954, but he was calling it by the very same name. I wonder how many people who use the figure realize it was invented by a man born in 1881?

     

    5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    Their numbers with the younger generations must be horrible. They were asleep at the wheel for far too long despite all kinds of people on the outside jumping up and down screaming that the sport was dying and they needed to do things to attract a younger audience to keep up with the NFL and not get passed by the NBA. Too late now. NBA flew by them and the NFL is long gone in this race. So now they're left with embarrassing ideas like this.

    This feels like a focus group testing. They're throwing the idea out and seeing what the reaction is. Testing the edges. Seeing how far they can go with each segment of the population to see how much they can change. And how quickly they can change it. 

    I think this is a horrendous idea. But I'm no longer the target market. And I shouldn't be. I'm not the younger generation anymore. I'm a die hard who will still watch. They need to get younger fans watching. They needed to start doing it 20 years ago. But they really need to start doing it now. And if this is what it takes then they should do it. I just hope it isn't what it takes. 

    As usual, I find myself in lock-step with chpettit. Posted this earlier:

     

    3 hours ago, JCT66 said:

    The other recent rule changes were done primarily as a way to offset coaching and strategy trends that had negatively impacted the game (i.e. limiting the shift, limiting the amount of pitcher substitutions, and trying to ensure speed, baserunning, and stealing remained relevant).  These changes were very successful because they were helped to return the game to its roots.  The one exception to that is the Ghost Runner in extra innings, but that was probably worthwhile in order to end the occasional marathon games that would occur.

     

    Easy change that could have been made was to end the game in a tie after a normal 10th inning of baseball.  Ties aren't a great thing or a bad thing.  Football games can still end in a tie at the NFL level, used to end in a tie at the college level.  Hockey can end in a tie.  Next thing we know the guy will be put on 3rd base to start the inning vs 2nd base and you get one shot to bring him home.  Batter scores on fly out with 1st batter up, you win.  Batter Strikes out or force out and home team gets on shot to win it. Neither score in 10th then be done with the game. I don't like extra innings format, so just end the game in a tie and move on.  

    Players don't like extra inning games, too hard on their bodies over 162 game season. Guess what, play less games in regular season and don't play 25+ games in spring training.  Argument will be made that players need time to ramp up in spring training so play the whole month of March to do that.  Come to camp in shape and ready to go to start the season in Mid-April by starting spring training Mid-March.  Later start to season gives northern cities who play outside better chance of warmer weather.  End season Mid-September before crappy weather happens more often in northern climates.

    Worn out bodies through the year, change roster size from 26 in spring and make it 35 for first 30 days of season and last 35 days if we are worried about guys getting hurt when not ready to play more than 4 innings at a time or fatigued at end of the year.  

    Baseball Pastime doesn't exist the way I grew up with and I never complained about how long a game took.  Baseball was baseball. Instant gratification world is upon us and will only get worse.

    It's fine for the Bananas because they're playing a different game.

    I suspect it would often be used to get a team's best hitter up twice in the same inning against the same pitcher (more pitches seen, and all that).   So . . what do you do when the "Golden Batter" strokes a single or double & is still on base when his regular spot in the lineup comes up?   Do you get a 'ghost runner' (someone on the bench) who takes his spot on the basepaths so he can bat again?  Do you send the guy whose at bat was swiped out to run the bases for the "Golden Batter"  who gets a hit? 

    It's a gimmick.   

    If you think there's not enough offensive action, do something which addresses that . . . make the ball bigger & easier to hit, back the pitchers up a few feet (yes, I know changes of this type could have drastic impact on pitcher health).   Don't make the ball more lively - "slow pitch softball" is not what you're trying to sell.,  

    So much about Manfred is a disappointment.   His openness to gimmicks is high on the list. 

    One problem in baseball is you have to wait sooooo long to see prospects. It's hard to be excited about drafting a Walker Jenkins then having him disappear into obscurity for three or more years.  Players coming into the NFL and NBA are already well-known from college and instantly recognized when they show up professionally. The closest thing for the MLB is signing international stars but it's hard for the average fan to feel the same connection to a player who needs an interpreter for the post-game interview. Awkward.

    Question - Golf has got to be the absolute most boring sport on TV. Is it suffering through the same decline in popularity as baseball? If not, why?

     

     

    32 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

    Dumb. They could use this for the All-Star game but not regular season or playoffs. Might get some people to watch that game a little more closely  

     

    Only if the ASG winner determines WS home field advantage




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