Are the Twins Actually Poised to Compete in 2026? They're Closer than You Think

If (and it's an enormous IF at this point) the Pohlads allow Derek to make the call on baseball decisions this winter, it really comes down to whether he believes guys like Lewis, Lee, and Wallner are good enough to invest in. If the answer is yes, then not only should there be no selloff of starting pitching, but Joe Ryan should be extended. If the answer is no, then it would make sense to trade Ryan & Lopez and re-orient their contention window for guys like Keaschall, Jenkins, Culpepper, Abel, etc. 

1 minute ago, cjvirnig said:

If (and it's an enormous IF at this point) the Pohlads allow Derek to make the call on baseball decisions this winter, it really comes down to whether he believes guys like Lewis, Lee, and Wallner are good enough to invest in. If the answer is yes, then not only should there be no selloff of starting pitching, but Joe Ryan should be extended. If the answer is no, then it would make sense to trade Ryan & Lopez and re-orient their contention window for guys like Keaschall, Jenkins, Culpepper, Abel, etc. 

That presumes the Twins are allowed to have a payroll over $95M by ownership. If they are, then yes, they should be keeping the starting pitching and trying to extend Ryan, even if it only gets them 1 year of his FA. But if they were claiming to be losing $40M with a payroll of $135M, Correa's dead money on payroll for 2026, and attendance guaranteed to be down next season (the only way they crack 1.5M next season is for them to discount tickets and have fan invasions from MKE, TOR, KC, CWS, etc) why should anyone believe they'll authorize a payroll north of $100M?

Never believe anything the Pohlads say. They suckered us once this decade by investing in the team, then pulled the rug out, at least in part because they are utter bunglers when it comes to their media rights and growing fan support.

I like your optimism...But...I don't think the goal is to compete in 2026. 2027 ok I'm onboard with that. BUT again...Will there be a lock out? Will the Pohlad actually reinvest in the payroll?

I expect at least one of Lopez/Ryan to be traded along with 1 or both of Wallner/Larnach. By the end of 2027 most of them will be free agents.

13 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

the only way they crack 1.5M next season is for them to discount tickets and have fan invasions from MKE, TOR, KC, CWS, etc) why should anyone believe they'll authorize a payroll north of $100M?

Never believe anything the Pohlads say. They suckered us once this decade by investing in the team, then pulled the rug out, at least in part because they are utter bunglers when it comes to their media rights and growing fan support.

I can't believe they think doubling the price for streaming is a good idea.

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ESPN's direct-to-consumer service features an unlimited plan for $29.99 per month or $299 per year, or a select plan for $11.99 per month or $119.99 per year. Twins fans would then need an MLB.TV subscription that could have a similar price in the region of $29.99 a month, which could put the monthly bill around $40-$60 per month for Minnesota fans.

Report: ESPN closes in on Twins TV rights with deal that could raise prices

If the twins are to compete next year they need  to give AAA guys some at bats now. Otherwise we have the same low hit low field team as the last few years. See what you got this season is toast.

Lot of pessimistic views.  

Lets 1st discuss Ryan and Lopez.  I would say its close to a non zero chance the Twins trade both.  You need at least 1 veteran in your starter position to lead the pitching staff.  Due to Ober having struggling stuff and health I think he is not considered for the role.  Of the 2 players I think the most likely player kept is Lopez.  Yes his salary is high,  but we have shed so much salary its not a big deal.  His value is the lowest.  Meaning he will bring back the least amount.  2. Is he is an extremely professional individual.  He has been a tough situation like this with the Marlins.  

I think the odds are increasing they trade neither.   Say what you will I think the Twins wanted to tank for the fall,  and the decisions on players that they have played continues to reaffirm this opinion.   Unless they get a massive offer for Ryan - which with 2027 and possible work stoppage I don't think they just trade and give him away.  Ryan's value is likely going to be 2 1/2 times what Duran was.  The sheer amount of value will be difficult to equal out, without a massive amount of prospects.  I just don't think we will be able to match up with what Falvey wants.   Also a surprise,  I think Falvey thinks he can put a competitive team on the field for next year.  

So claim number 1 touted so far is this team can't hit.  I would argue this team as currently constructed can't hit consistently and we don't play small ball well enough.  We still seem to be in the bombas mentality although that is beginning to change.   Keashall and an improving Lee are 2 young players to build around.  You add in Buxton and Jeffers and that is a decent core to build around.  I think a lot will depend on the Twins plans for Culpepper.  If they do plan to have Culpepper move up soon Lee either becomes the utility infielder,  or you trade Lewis.  Lewis is such an enigma.  I have no idea what you could get for him.  If you did trade him you slide Lee to 3rd and suddenly you have 5 quality hitters.  At this point I think Larnach gets traded and Wallner stays.  Does a Gonzalez/Rodriguez/Fedko/Roden Take 1 or 2 spots.  I would venture even with the lack of time,  Rodriguez and Roden get the first nods.  Fedko assuming he is still well is the immediate back up and then you continue to season Gonzalez and monitor Jenkins progress.   That leave 1st base and DH and the bench.  We seem to have ample bench players.  I wouldn't be surprised if we spend 2-5 million on another 1st base project.   If Culpepper is legit, Keaschall continues to hit and Lee continues to improve - or you have 3 solid you hitters to build around Jeffers and Buxton - You can have a solid lineup.  You find 5 young hitters and we are talking.   At that point we are no longer talking about the Twins not developing hitters.  

As to the bullpen.  I think most here will say Sands and Topa can fill the 4 and 5 spots in the bullpen.  Hatch, Cabrera and Funderburk can fill the back end.  1 of those players won't be in the Twins plans and then you can fill it with 1 of the Twins failed starters.  My #1 option assuming health is Canterino.  After that you have Raya, Morris, Adams, Ohl.  I think the Twins trade for 1 reliever,  and then they sign 2 other relievers.  1 higher end reliever they intend to keep for the year or flip for prospects, and another reliever they think they can get elevated performance out of.  So if we trade for 1 good to great reliever,  spend $15 million or slightly more on relievers (which is less than we were going to spend  this year) and supplement with the rest of the players that is a really solid start.  If things come together you have the ability to trade at the dealine for another reliever.   So this is how you could rebuild the Twins bullpen in 1 year.  It will be lots of moving parts for a year or two but then gradually we will find a couple really solid bullpen arms that we have developed.   

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Let's say they are both moved. I don't see that happening, but let's play it out. Both are traded.

 

What are the returns? Do you think they are trading both for players that could be up in 2028? Or do you think they are getting guys for 2026?

They are being traded for salary reasons, so expect prospects. How close they are depends on the trade partner.

Did you mean poised for 2036… not 2026? Must’ve been a typo.

Been following this team for 50+ years, and I’ve never been so emotionally detached. 

 I’m not even sure who’s more pathetic—ownership, front office, manager, or players. 

If you thought 2024-2025 was a nightmare...2026 is going to be a horror show on steroids. 

8 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Lot of pessimistic views.  

Lets 1st discuss Ryan and Lopez.  I would say its close to a non zero chance the Twins trade both.  You need at least 1 veteran in your starter position to lead the pitching staff.  Due to Ober having struggling stuff and health I think he is not considered for the role.  Of the 2 players I think the most likely player kept is Lopez.  Yes his salary is high,  but we have shed so much salary its not a big deal.  His value is the lowest.  Meaning he will bring back the least amount.  2. Is he is an extremely professional individual.  He has been a tough situation like this with the Marlins.  

I think the odds are increasing they trade neither.   Say what you will I think the Twins wanted to tank for the fall,  and the decisions on players that they have played continues to reaffirm this opinion.   Unless they get a massive offer for Ryan - which with 2027 and possible work stoppage I don't think they just trade and give him away.  Ryan's value is likely going to be 2 1/2 times what Duran was.  The sheer amount of value will be difficult to equal out, without a massive amount of prospects.  I just don't think we will be able to match up with what Falvey wants.   Also a surprise,  I think Falvey thinks he can put a competitive team on the field for next year.  

So claim number 1 touted so far is this team can't hit.  I would argue this team as currently constructed can't hit consistently and we don't play small ball well enough.  We still seem to be in the bombas mentality although that is beginning to change.   Keashall and an improving Lee are 2 young players to build around.  You add in Buxton and Jeffers and that is a decent core to build around.  I think a lot will depend on the Twins plans for Culpepper.  If they do plan to have Culpepper move up soon Lee either becomes the utility infielder,  or you trade Lewis.  Lewis is such an enigma.  I have no idea what you could get for him.  If you did trade him you slide Lee to 3rd and suddenly you have 5 quality hitters.  At this point I think Larnach gets traded and Wallner stays.  Does a Gonzalez/Rodriguez/Fedko/Roden Take 1 or 2 spots.  I would venture even with the lack of time,  Rodriguez and Roden get the first nods.  Fedko assuming he is still well is the immediate back up and then you continue to season Gonzalez and monitor Jenkins progress.   That leave 1st base and DH and the bench.  We seem to have ample bench players.  I wouldn't be surprised if we spend 2-5 million on another 1st base project.   If Culpepper is legit, Keaschall continues to hit and Lee continues to improve - or you have 3 solid you hitters to build around Jeffers and Buxton - You can have a solid lineup.  You find 5 young hitters and we are talking.   At that point we are no longer talking about the Twins not developing hitters.  

As to the bullpen.  I think most here will say Sands and Topa can fill the 4 and 5 spots in the bullpen.  Hatch, Cabrera and Funderburk can fill the back end.  1 of those players won't be in the Twins plans and then you can fill it with 1 of the Twins failed starters.  My #1 option assuming health is Canterino.  After that you have Raya, Morris, Adams, Ohl.  I think the Twins trade for 1 reliever,  and then they sign 2 other relievers.  1 higher end reliever they intend to keep for the year or flip for prospects, and another reliever they think they can get elevated performance out of.  So if we trade for 1 good to great reliever,  spend $15 million or slightly more on relievers (which is less than we were going to spend  this year) and supplement with the rest of the players that is a really solid start.  If things come together you have the ability to trade at the dealine for another reliever.   So this is how you could rebuild the Twins bullpen in 1 year.  It will be lots of moving parts for a year or two but then gradually we will find a couple really solid bullpen arms that we have developed.   

Your entire premise is based on the idea that ownership is more concerned about winning than finances. Please name one thing that has happened in the last 18-24 months that supports this. 

Lopez is 100% gone either this offseason or early next season, depending on when he shows he is healthy. Ryan is 98% gone because he is a relatively inexpensive SP1 on a 70-win team that is not actively trying to compete. He will be moved for prospects with an eye towards the future.

The only reason the 2026 payroll will be over $100m next year is if they count Correa's dead money. Spending on relievers, spending on 1B... Does anyone think they will spend on anything this offseason?

34 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Your entire premise is based on the idea that ownership is more concerned about winning than finances. Please name one thing that has happened in the last 18-24 months that supports this. 

Lopez is 100% gone either this offseason or early next season, depending on when he shows he is healthy. Ryan is 98% gone because he is a relatively inexpensive SP1 on a 70-win team that is not actively trying to compete. He will be moved for prospects with an eye towards the future.

The only reason the 2026 payroll will be over $100m next year is if they count Correa's dead money. Spending on relievers, spending on 1B... Does anyone think they will spend on anything this offseason?

They are resetting the salary ceiling by trading Correa. They traded the bullpen to add significant value to the system and tank and improve our draft slot. After that they rebuild the roster to give the fans something to cheer for. I expect some salary to be respect. I don’t see us having a bottom 4 or 5 payroll. 

26 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

A lot more info has to come out about this (obviously), but you can get access to ESPN’s DTC platform and all of their offerings by authenticating through your TV provider at no extra charge … if your provider has struck a deal with ESPN. (There’s a list somewhere of participating providers - YouTube tv is not currently one).  There’s a possibility they also charge extra for MLB tv the way apple does for MLS, but they’ve confirmed that there won’t be an extra charge for big WWE shows on their service, so who knows?

In other words, it might cost more or less or the same amount you currently pay.  Clear as crystal

I cut the cord. My TV provider is an antenna. Maybe they will have a bundle with Disney+.

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

I'd earmark it at 95% chance one of them is traded and somewhere around 50-60% that both go. My guess is Lopez is the first domino to fall.

Lopez and Ober is my guess.

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Either of them still bring back a LOT more than anyone traded at this last deadline. I know we are all down on them at the moment, but just wiping it away saying you are certain both are traded without accounting for what comes back feels off to me. Or do you really think other teams view Ryan or Lopez as valuable as the cardboard cutouts that were in seats in the 2020 season?

You need to look at the context of the discussion. The question was whether the return was aimed at 2026 or 2028. My response was that it was dependent on the trading partner. It had nothing to do with what was coming back in return.

The current team can’t hit and has below avg. fielding with no bullpen. Going to be awhile before the Twins challenge anybody but for the basement of the division.

It's too easy to be a part of the mob mentality which ends up becoming myopic What does payroll have to do with playing baseball? Correa's large contract didn't really help the team win very much did it? It sure didn't help his hitting or fielding to improve much did it? He had trouble even staying on the field. What folks don't seem to appreciate is the potential for young players to grow. For some young players it's like turning on a light switch. One day they suddenly just get it & begin to hit. If folks really want to predict next year's weather then they should at least read the Farmers Almanac. I've heard that it's totally reliable at predicting the weather. With it you can even acurately predict how much the rings will grow on all of the trees next year.  Maybe some of the players will start to use the torpedo bat. Or maybe some will begin using the ax handle bat like when Kurt Suzuki did and started pounding the ball. The Twins aren't going to trade Joe or Pablo. They can sell tickets which puts fans in the seats and smiles on their faces. Trading them would be bad for business. Fans shouldn't be predicting the worse for the Twins next season when they haven't first consulted the Farmer's Almanac. They could at least wait until after the All Star break to see how the season goes. That's why they play the games.