26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero

[Zephrin]

Just read "Embracing the Suck," which I missed prior to it becoming featured on this site a few minutes ago. Summarizes my basic position fairly eloquently. Twins have been (and need to) focus on Draft and Int'l market. FAs are nice supplements for a team that is close. This team is not close.

[nicksaviking]

When they have a solid team that makes the playoffs more years than not, people complain that they can't get over the hump. But when they get to the point that what they have isn't working and they scrap it for "Operation 2015" they get criticized just as much. At the end of the day, only winning it all satisfies. You can't make a realistic argument that they were going to win it all this year regardless of what they did last winter.

 

But why would you assume any free agents won't be part of "Operation 2015?" You really wan't to rely on Joe Mauer and 24 24-year-olds to win the World Series? That's not a winning formula, that's a recipe for disaster. You can't rely on prospects alone, the 1987 and 1991 teams sure didn't, though no one ever accuse Andy McPhail of being passive.

 

Additionally, the issue with Santana was not failing to resign him, it was the bizare decision to only extend the 24-year-old Cy Young Award winning lefty but only buy out one free agent year. Why Santana didn't get a six-year extension is beyond explanation.

[The Wise One]

I don't think I understand what you are trying to say, it seems like every sentence in this paragraph is a contradiction to the previous one. Is your final arguement trying to say the reason the Twins haven't been winning was not because of payroll but because of Drew Butera?

 

Lets try this again. Spending money guarantees nothing. Darrin can point out the teams that have not won with spending money to prove that point. He did not say in there that a team should not spend money. You can point out all the teams that have won by spending large sums of money. It means you can win, doesn't mean you will win by spending a lot of money. The ability to assess talent will win. The ability to judge how well players will play in their"decline" years will continue the winning.

If you wish to extrapolate that I said the team didn't win because of Drew Butera I am at a loss for words. "2 pieces of dead wood can hurt the roster" should be fairly clear. I guess I was very wrong. That I used only ONE example from a collection of bad players, you go where you did with it. Do I have to go through the entire roster to satisfy you?

The Dodgers had no choice but to use taking on salary to improve, they have a poor farm system. No assets to trade to improve.

[old nurse]

Two things. First, 85 wins and the Twins would be a contender in the central, so yes, I believe the fans would be there in droves.

 

Second, you can no longer pump money into prospects anymore. Everything is capped. The only place you can freely spend is in Free Agency. Since the Twins will have $40-80 million in payroll flexibility and the only place to spend it is in free agency and the Twins have huge holes that could use upgrading....well you can see why people are upset.

 

Detroit is on pace for a 94 win season. How is finishing 9 games back contending?

[Mike Sixel]

Not spending money also does not guarantee wins. If you have money, and leave it on the table, are you reall using every opportunity to get better? Does anyone believe Ryan would have signed Morris to that huge contract? This isn't about the Pohlads, this is about Ryan not being willing to do what it takes. Feel free to disagree, but offer some examples where a Ryan led team spent resources on the present. Cutting two outfielders, and signing two cheaper ones does not count. Since none of those savings were reinvested in the team.

 

here is a secret, apparently. If you sign a free agent for more than 1 year, he can maybe help the young guys when they come up. And, the As signed a Cuban for a lot of money, even they went for it recently.

[old nurse]

Not spending money also does not guarantee wins. If you have money, and leave it on the table, are you reall using every opportunity to get better? Does anyone believe Ryan would have signed Morris to that huge contract? This isn't about the Pohlads, this is about Ryan not being willing to do what it takes. Feel free to disagree, but offer some examples where a Ryan led team spent resources on the present. Cutting two outfielders, and signing two cheaper ones does not count. Since none of those savings were reinvested in the team.

 

here is a secret, apparently. If you sign a free agent for more than 1 year, he can maybe help the young guys when they come up. And, the As signed a Cuban for a lot of money, even they went for it recently.

 

If Ryan spends money and buys free agents that play poorly he is ripped. Your post is filled with nothing but maybes, the simple argument is maybe not. Maybe your own players take a step forward in development. Maybe Parmelee hits at a rate 90% of what he did last year in the minors. Maybe Willingham is healthy two years in a row. Maybe Diamond and Worley steps up their games. Maybe Hendricks can pitch like he did late last year against Detroit.

Bottom line is the threads on free agent pitching was last month. Plenty of bickering. No proof of anything positive one way or the other except in the poster's mind. You can say Ryan does not want to overpay but look at Correia's salary history. He probably got a million a year more than he should have based on past contracts. Ryan thought he could get a pretty darn good pitcher for the money he had. They guessed really wrong on what the market for players would be. They guessed wrong on players willing to come here.

[Mike Sixel]

Or, they didn't offer enough, and it wasn't about guessing wrong.

[cmb0252]

Do people even want this guy for his ability or just because they want Ryan to spend money? No one is really making the argument that we should sign him because of X tool or that they think he will be Y type of player. If you want him just because other Cubans have been good and because Ryan has money that seems short sited. If you have actually read his scouting reports and like him as a player that's a different thing. I just don't see much to get excited about but maybe that's just me.

[Jim H]

Do people even want this guy for his ability or just because they want Ryan to spend money? No one is really making the argument that we should sign him because of X tool or that they think he will be Y type of player. If you want him just because other Cubans have been good and because Ryan has money that seems short sited. If you have actually read his scouting reports and like him as a player that's a different thing. I just don't see much to get excited about but maybe that's just me.

 

I agree with this. Wanting Ryan to spend money just because everyone believes we have it and should spend it, doesn't make much sense to me either. Now, if you believe this guy will be a large upgrade over what the Twins have at shortstop or some other position we are short of, well then I am all for it. I really think that the focus needs to be pitching, and maybe short term help at one position or another. We don't know what some of the high ceiling prospects are really going to do, but I think the Twins are committed to their prospects as they should be.

 

Spending money on free agents can certainly help a team win. There are numerous examples of this, but most of those spending sprees were shortterm fixes. Even the Yankees best years just happened to coincide when their core was homegrown and in their prime(Jeter, Posada, Williams, Soriano, Riveria etc). I am happy to watch Ryan build a core for the future. I hope he will spend the money when the right moments are there, but I am not going to complain about not spending on marginal upgrades.

[notoriousgod71]

What's the harm in signing him? There's not one legitimate SS prospect in the entire system.

[cmb0252]

What's the harm in signing him? There's not one legitimate SS prospect in the entire system.

 

Have you even read his scouting reports? Not a single one that I have read suggests he will stick at SS. All point to a move to 2B.

[Badsmerf]

I can live with an average to slightly below average SS that can OPS .800. Average range and arm strength aren't a problem if he is efficient. Errors would be the main concern for me. I haven't been able to see any errors recorded but I'm sure they are somewhere.

 

I would only imagine that Ryan would be more careful about signing an unkown at SS after the Nishioka debacle. The Twins have the money to make this happen without it hurting too bad if it doesn't work out. SS has been a position they haven't been able to fill adequately for a long time. Getting a guy that might be the solution would be exciting.

[jorgenswest]

He will be 27 next year. He is too old to let develop in the minors.

 

The Twins need to decide if Florimon is the solution for the next few years. If not, Guerrero is a worthwhile risk. It is a risk they should take if they are willing to give him a starting job next year.

 

This is a much wiser use of the free agent market for a team that should start rebuilding as opposed to signing a decline phase player.

 

Florimon or Guerrero. That is the real decision Ryan needs to make with the help of the scouting department. If a position change to 2B or corner OF is necessary, Guerrero isn't nearly as valuable to the Twins or anyone else.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Couple of things to comment here:

 

7/32 is a pretty reasonable price for this kid. It comes out to less than 5M a year. The Twins have the financial ability over the next 7 years (given the kids coming up) to absorb this contract and not hurt them competitively. What they don't have over the next 7 years is the financial ability to absorb multiple bad contracts like this. That, to me, is the dilemma. It isn't my money, but with no obvious SS prospect in the high minors to complement the next wave, taking a risk like this certainly makes sense. He's the right age and could immediately start at SS. He'd be locked up at a reasonable price throughout his prime.

 

Couple of other things. His bat certainly looks like it will play in the middle infield. I'd give him every opportunity to stick at SS because it looks like this team has 3 guys that could all be above avg 2B now in Dozier, Plouffe, and Rosario. I'd be OK moving Dozier or Plouffe back to short at one point, though I get the distinct impression that this particular ship has sailed. This kid could be another clone of these guys, where the defense is questionable but the bat will play.

 

I'd probably go hard after him... That's me.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

We need a possible shortstop for the future, but this guy isn't it. The Twins should, however, be aggressive when it comes to getting a shortstop. Even if it takes the money Guerrero will command. That's really the point both sides are trying to make. I'll use Nishi as an example of a foreign SS. I don't fault the Twins for actually spending money on Nishioka, I'm mad that the scouting department actually thought he would be good. Although, would I try it again if they liked another? You bet. The Twins actually went out and took a risk signing Nishioka and they got killed for it. Now they're too timid to do anything when it's absolutely necessary to get out of sucking.When it comes to money, why not risk it? If the Twins are going to save $5million they have zero chance of that available money bettering the team. Spending it, while potentially dangerous, at least provides some chance of creating a more successful team.

[MichiganTwins]

What has been the opinion of Danny Santana? I know he has lots of errors but can someone say more about his growth or lack thereof?

[Mr. Brooks]

I know people will criticize Ryan for not shelling out big bucks to sign this guy but I don't think signing him makes much sense because it doesn't fit with the timeline of our prospects.

 

Here are the ages of the Twins top prospects in 4 years:

Buxton-23, Sano 24, Rosario 25, Stewart 22, Meyer 27, Berrios 23, Hicks 27, Arcia 26, Gibson 29, May 27, Kepler 24, Polanco 24, Harrison 24, Santana 26, etc.

 

In other words, the Twins have a ton of young talent that has yet to reach their prime (with the exception of Gibson). Guerrero, on the other hand, will be 30 and reaching the downturn of his career. What's the point of shelling out big bucks for a big risk (it's tough to scout Cubans) for a player who will be in his prime when the Twins are rebuilding. It's important to remember that rebuilding through the minors seems to be the way to go (see: Giants, Rangers, Pirates, Yanks of 90s etc. as opposed to the current Angels and Yankees).

 

As for the Twins being "cheap" right now, if that's what it takes to lock up Buxton, Sano, and co. to longterm deals before they hit their prime, that's fine with me.

 

There are plenty of players all over MLB who are 30 years old and still producing. One quick example would be Joe Mauer.

You don't win with a roster made up exclusively of kids. It has to be a mix of kids, players right in their prime, and crafty veterans. Every team you mention has that mix, ESPECIALLY those Yankee clubs of the 90's, they were full of players 30 y.o.+.

[kab21]

I never claimed he will be our 2B for the next decade. I just don't see the value of throwing $30+ million on a 26 year old 2B who hasn't played in a game in a year and a half. Maybe I'm jaded by the Nishi signing but I'm just not a fan of this guy.

 

We agree on many things but this is a terrible analysis. I don't care if Guerrero can't stick at SS. If he is a legit MLB player then this would be a great move. I wouldn't care if the Twins signed a Cuban OF'er (Alvarez). This team needs to add talent to the roster and worry about where to play them later. If Rosario truly ended up blocked by Guerrero then he would be a very attractive trade piece that could net the Twins a decent pitcher. And the scouting reports only say that he probably won't stick at SS. The same scouting reports said that Rosario and Sano might not stick at 2B/3B.

[TheLeviathan]

Kab just crushed it. That's exactly the point. You aren't going to find players his age for nothing but cash commitments in FA but for extremely rare exceptions.

 

Cuban or other international FAs that fall through the cracks like this have to be a place we are willing to take some risks if we aren't willing to in normal FA.

[Major League Ready]

Please, are you truely arguing that a higher payroll offers no advantage? If the big market, win-now Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox didn't think payroll was significant, why would they utilize those resources.

 

Feel free to argue that a small payroll can still win, but don't pretend that you aren't in need of the stars aligning to do so. Increased payroll gives you a much larger margin of error.

 

This is the crux of the problem. Many Twins fans just can’t get over we are not the Yankees or the Red Sox. The Yankees have approximately $250M more revenue than the Twins and the Red Sox have an additional $120M. While this is not a small market team it would be foolish for the Twins to adapt the practices of large market teams. I am not so sure there practices are well-advised even with the increased revenue. It’s a risky practice. The Yankees better hope they can get out of A-Rods contract and Sabathia looks like he is fading fast w.3.5 years to go on his deal. How about the Angels? They bought themselves a big long-term problem or two.

 

To continue the spending debate, you have to be willing to just completely ignore that the Rays have been very competitive with a payroll about one-third of the Yankees and RedSox. The Rays and As have a combined payroll of just under $124M (approx $62M/ea). The Twins need to adapt their practices.

 

What we should be debating IMO, is how the Twins should refine their practices to follow the successful examples of the As and Rays. And, how we could use the $50M in additional revenue we have over those teams. Should we use it to retain our own players, sign international prospects or Free Agent’s? I recognize that it will be a few years before our top prospects will arbitration eligible and eventually free agents. However, top free agents require very long-term deals and eat-up that $50M in a big hurry. Do we really want SPs next year that require a six year contract (2014-2019).

 

Many of the top free agents do perform for awhile. But the norm is to pay them well past their prime so even the ones that do perform will likely hurt the team for a couple of years. That can be obsorbed if you are NY or Boston, not so much if you are the Twins. The rest are a crap shoot, especially pitchers.

[nicksaviking]

This is the crux of the problem. Many Twins fans just can’t get over we are not the Yankees or the Red Sox. The Yankees have approximately $250M more revenue than the Twins and the Red Sox have an additional $120M. While this is not a small market team it would be foolish for the Twins to adapt the practices of large market teams. I am not so sure there practices are well-advised even with the increased revenue. It’s a risky practice.

 

That's rediculous, no one on this board argues the Twins should spend like the Yankees and Red Sox. The comps they most often get her are in regard Detroit and St. Louis. No one asks for a top five payroll, most don't even argue for the 2010 payroll, people are just frustrated that they don't use all of the resources available to them.

 

And don't think the Rays wouldn't spend more if they got the new stadium they have been after. Would we all be happy with a Rays level of success right now? Obviously, but they are winning due to being terrible and getting high draft picks. Hopefully the Twins plight will result in the same fortune. However, the Rays are also succeeding due to an eager use of Sabrmetrics and continued success in identifying and developing pitchers. The Twins have proven an ability to do neither, hence the need to acquire pitchers from outside the organization.

 

You say the Twins should save their money to retain their top prospects, that's great and they sure as hell better, but those contracts will not be an issue for the better part of a decade. I'm not a fan of a six year deal as you mentioned above, but it would have little affect on the ability to retain a Buxton or Sano, and a more likely three, four or five year deal would have zero impact. Also, it is way too early to assume the top prospects will pan out enough to require mega-contracts. I hope they do and I anticipate they will extend at least one, but counting on the prospects alone, like some here want to, is very dangerous.

[ThePuck]

That's rediculous, no one on this board argues the Twins should spend like the Yankees and Red Sox. The comps they most often get her are in regard Detroit and St. Louis. No one asks for a top five payroll, most don't even argue for the 2010 payroll, people are just frustrated that they don't use all of the resources available to them.

 

And don't think the Rays wouldn't spend more if they got the new stadium they have been after. Would we all be happy with a Rays level of success right now? Obviously, but they are winning due to being terrible and getting high draft picks. Hopefully the Twins plight will result in the same fortune. However, the Rays are also succeeding due to an eager use of Sabrmetrics and continued success in identifying and developing pitchers. The Twins have proven an ability to do neither, hence the need to acquire pitchers from outside the organization.

 

You say the Twins should save their money to retain their top prospects, that's great and they sure as hell better, but those contracts will not be an issue for the better part of a decade. I'm not a fan of a six year deal as you mentioned above, but it would have little affect on the ability to retain a Buxton or Sano, and a more likely three, four or five year deal would have zero impact. Also, it is way too early to assume the top prospects will pan out enough to require mega-contracts. I hope they do and I anticipate they will extend at least one, but counting on the prospects alone, like some here want to, is very dangerous.

 

It's starting to get comical how often we hear the counter argument to pursuing decent FAs is that we shouldn't be spending to achieve a payroll like the Yankees, Angels or Dodgers...as if anyone who has says we should spend to pursue decent FAs has said anything remotely like that. Since when is suggesting we spend around 100M the same as saying we should spend like the big spenders?

[Mike Sixel]

In additon, the Rays use advanced defensive shifts, platoon players, etc.....all things the Twins have not figure out actually matter. Nothing about how the Rays and Twins run is similar. The As and Rays trade players at their peak value, not let them walk in FA for nothing. The Twins have waaaaaaaay more revenue than those teams, they should use that advantage for something other than lining the owners' pockets, imo. Or, they should pay off the taxpayer funded part of the stadium and buy it from us.

[Winston Smith]

Simple really they have said time and time again they will spend 50% of revenue. Forbes says they are at 212 mill give or take the same as the Tigers. The Tigers spend well over 50% because they have an owner that wants to win. The Pohlads could care less about winning and everything about making money. Now that they have the stadium that 50% has gone out the window after the first couple years. That was the main reason why Smith and Ryan switched offices. Smith wanted to spend the money and Ryan said he could get it done on the cheap. They called it "philosophical differences".

Is there any question that if they spent around 50% of revenue every year that we wouldn't on average have a better baseball team. If they didn't then they need a new GM.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm all for adding talent in the way that kab outlies, but I do think we need to again emphasize that while the Twins have mid-market and possible 100 million payroll, they simply can't afford to miss on these type of contracts (Again, why it's hard for the Twins to ever sign a Grienke). We dismiss the risk because the payroll is so low during losing seasons, but over the course of the contract, it very well could prevent the Twins from acquiring necessary assets.

 

I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't acquire a guy like Guerrero, but rather making such an acquisition isn't as obvious as many are insisting. If the cost is 7/32 that's certainly manageable, but that sounds pretty pollyanneish to me.

[cmb0252]

Hey look, a perfectly good forum that is getting turned into a payroll argument again....yay.

[nicksaviking]

We dismiss the risk because the payroll is so low during losing seasons, but over the course of the contract, it very well could prevent the Twins from acquiring necessary assets.

 

I don't think many people realistically thought going after Grienke was a good move, but there are many levels of free agency between the Grienke's and the Marquis'.

 

While signing a bigger free agent is a risk as they may not pan out and you may want the money to acquire future assets, when the time comes, won't you then be questioning whether the future asset is a good deal? Sure the Twins don't normally have the margin of error a big market club does, but it's not like they need to sweat free agency. With a commited payroll of just over $50 million next year and no uber-prospects in need of a large commitment for at least a half decade, the Twins have about as large of a margin of error as any team.

[DaveW]

I would sign him as long as the price was right, anything over 40-45 mil guaranteed would be too much for me honestly.

[Major League Ready]

In additon, the Rays use advanced defensive shifts, platoon players, etc.....all things the Twins have not figure out actually matter. Nothing about how the Rays and Twins run is similar. The As and Rays trade players at their peak value, not let them walk in FA for nothing. The Twins have waaaaaaaay more revenue than those teams, they should use that advantage for something other than lining the owners' pockets, imo. Or, they should pay off the taxpayer funded part of the stadium and buy it from us.

 

Part of your point is the real issue. The Twins need to improve in the same areas as the Rays and As. That would provide a very high probability of improved success.

 

I don't think one dime of tax payer money should ever go toward building stadiums. It is a subsidy for private business that certainly does not require it. If you want to be mad, be mad because our legislature/society takes tax revenue for sports teams who then use it to drive-up sports salaries that are already phenominally high. However, that ship has sailed so get over it. They spent when it made sense. We can complain when it comes time to spend to keep the talent they are developing.

 

What are the viable options? We don't want to block Hick's, Arcia or Buxton so FA outfielders does not make sense. We have Mauer at catcher with Pinto being ready soon, Hermann as back-up and several fresh recruits at catacher. Sano or Rosario and Florimon is among the top couple short stops defensively. That leaves us w/1B and pitching. Harrison or Kepler are likely candidates and 1B would be easy to fill via free agency.

 

It's easy to speak of how we should use free agency in general terms and to say they should have spent every last dime but how specifically should they have spent the money, short of having a crystal ball for the couple of FAs who did not require 4-6 years that did happen to work out. So, what exactly should they have done differently in free agency? I have to say the Pelfey signing was overly optimistic in terms of how quickly he be back in form if at all but there were many names floated here and out side of Grienke and Sanchez, most are not performing. The simply would have spent more money and tied up more roster spots for a longer period of time.

 

Last season is a shining example of the current free agent market for pitchers. There will be 2-3 really top pitchers that will command 4-6 years. If you go back 4-6 years, most of those acquistions were poor or very poor values.

[PseudoSABR]

I don't think many people realistically thought going after Grienke was a good move, but there are many levels of free agency between the Grienke's and the Marquis'.

 

While signing a bigger free agent is a risk as they may not pan out and you may want the money to acquire future assets, when the time comes, won't you then be questioning whether the future asset is a good deal? Sure the Twins don't normally have the margin of error a big market club does, but it's not like they need to sweat free agency. With a commited payroll of just over $50 million next year and no uber-prospects in need of a large commitment for at least a half decade, the Twins have about as large of a margin of error as any team.

I don't disagree. But since I know so little about this player, I can hardly blame the Twins if they aren't going to spend on him. Likewise, I'd rather them invest in expensive FAs when they are closer to competitiveness (and have a better idea of their true needs, though I agree assets are assets), in spite of however low payroll is now.