3 Free-Agent Landmines Twins Need to Avoid This Offseason

[Cris E]

This article is not sound for a few reasons. 

On the surface it is wrong because these are actually three pretty good free agents for the Twins. Lowe and Bednar are fairly consistent, neither is looking for five or more years, and both fill needs without blocking youngsters (assuming Lowe can slide to 1B when Houston shoves Culpepper out of SS.) Jeffers may be a rough signing for a team looking for four years of catching, but we have Lackey coming and a need for this RH bat, and best of all we don't pay the comp pick penalty. 

At a lower level this is a bad argument because it tries to walk a line that says free agency is very risky, these guys will blow up on you, but there are some others that will be fine.  OK, well, sort of, but no. Every team has to bring in talent from outside the organization to augment what the draft and develop source does not provide, so you must use free agency.   

Yes it's risky and/or expensive, but that's why these guys are available. If they were good and cheap their last team would have kept them. If they're bad you don't want them, and if they're expensive it just makes them players at market rate.  If you were better at draft and develop you wouldn't have to pay the extra price, but when there are holes that's what it costs. 

I guess I chafe at the complaining without also producing the names of the safer "legitimate opportunities to improve the roster through free agency."  Don't just be contrary, take a stand. 

I say (Jeffers, else Bauers, else Lowe)  plus a couple arms from the second shelf (ie not Bednar or Morejon.)

I say the depth in the pen is at least as important as the top end talent, and I'd rather have three or four very good guys than a lock down closer and what the Twins were doing last year. Hoffman and another couple guys about as good as him (and no Rogers or Topa or Hendricks grade filler) is better than spending all your money on Morejon and continuing to watch Orze and his ilk tiptoe through the seventh. 

[RpR]

8 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Agree on Lackey.  He gets a cup of coffee next year, begins to develop as a pro in 2028 sharing duties with Jeffers (and being tutored by Jeffers) as C2 for a good part of the year, 

Tutored how, teach him how go from 24.5 caught stealing in 2023 to 10.6 caught stealing in 2026?

As a catcher , Jeffers is a gaping hole in the defense.  Caratini's 16.2 is not great but still better than Jeffers.

[Nashvilletwin]

29 minutes ago, RpR said:

Tutored how, teach him how go from 24.5 caught stealing in 2023 to 10.6 caught stealing in 2026?

As a catcher , Jeffers is a gaping hole in the defense.  Caratini's 16.2 is not great but still better than Jeffers.

Yeah, that’s all Jeffers could teach - how to have a better arm.  Nothing else. Catching in the majors is only about throwing out runners and everything else either isn’t important or something young players just pick up on their own.

What a ridiculous comment.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, mickster said:

sign Bednar and sign Jeffers.   Love the comp pick and its still a win.

If we were to sign Jeffers to an extension - I would sign Bednar immediately.  Giving up a 3rd round pick and locking up a good catcher and elite reliever for 3-4 years seems to be an extremely smart deal to make for the Twins.  

[umterp23]

Free Agency is a necessary evil if you look at it that way or a necessary way to improve on the short term. Signing of young players to long term deals can lock down stars to be but that is still free agency risky. Yes we signed Buxton to favorable friendly deal, but his injuries year over year hasn’t been good business. Ask thenO’s if they truly love the long term lockdown signing of Bassalo at catcher. I’m from Maryland and family and friends bitch all the time that signing was very premature.
 

Signing any free agent comes with all kinds of risk vs rewards. The Jeffers risk is age to a degree, has always been in a role share tandem. Mentor a Lackey, or any up and comer, is a good thing. The hope that Lackey is ready in ‘28 to take over isn’t a guaranteed, he would have to jump through 3 levels to get there, just don’t see it. JPitch calling, ABS do’s and don’ts, clubhouse teammate, etc. plus any performance by Jeffers would be a good thing. Throwing out base runners is always the catchers fault when not successful. Hell, not many catchers are good at it. Would I sign Jeffers long term, yes but that ship has most likely sailed as the Twins aren’t a competitive team. Jeffers will want to be on a competitive teams that is playoff capable every year of his remaining playing time. Simple outlook is Twins aren’t that.
 

What scares me the most every offseason with twins is the leadership team. Evaluating talent for FA’s, trade targets, and money spent on dumpster diving to solving roster gaps, is the risk each year. Our reward, overpriced Correa deal, trade deadline explosion but not a full explosion to say rebuilding was the goal, bottom barrel acquisitions and the extremely poor use of roster construction (Jackson, Gray, for examples). 
 

 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

I couldn't disagree more. We should absolutely sign Jeffers and Bednar. The best available Catcher and one of the best Closers in the game will require an investment. If you want the best, you have to pay for it. 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, Whammy said:

Brandon Lowe's K% and BB% in 2026 were basically at his career averages. As was his OPS+.

His K% ticked up a little from 2025, but his BB% ticked up more. What I see is a dude who has had remarkable year-over-year consistency. Someone who has been strongly above-average basically every year of his career.

I don't see anything in his numbers that suggests there's any more risk with him that any other 32 year old. 

Every other MI has the equal ability to stat to decline at 32. Lowe had a 5 war season, otherwise he was in the mid 2 WAR range. 3/49 is even a risky contract 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Whammy said:

Outgoing: ~50th pick
Incoming ~ 35th pick

Outgoing is more like the 80th pick

[Whammy]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Outgoing is more like the 80th pick

I'm pretty sure it would be our 3rd highest pick (not counting a potential Compensatory pick for Jeffers). We have a competitive balance "A" pick coming our way, so our 2nd round pick would be our third highest pick.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, Whammy said:

I'm pretty it would be our 3rd highest pick (not counting a potential Compensatory pick for Jeffers). We have a competitive balance "A" pick coming our way, so our 2nd round pick would be our third highest pick.

They can trade the competitive balance pick, which would make them lose the 3rd round pick.

[laloesch]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

If we were to sign Jeffers to an extension - I would sign Bednar immediately.  Giving up a 3rd round pick and locking up a good catcher and elite reliever for 3-4 years seems to be an extremely smart deal to make for the Twins.  

THIS.  As long as Jeffers contract doesn't rise too far above 75 million, I'd do 4 years, but that's it.  Bednar is a no brainer decision.  They also need a 1st baseman desperately.  If Lewis starts the season as the starting 1st baseman the Twins might as well waive the white flag.  

[Whammy]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They can trade the competitive balance pick, which would make them lose the 3rd round pick.

I already tried to pull those shenanigans. I've been told this is not the case.

For purposes of what pick we might be losing, our Competitive balance pick counts, whether we own it or not.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Cris E said:

Every team has to bring in talent from outside the organization to augment what the draft and develop source does not provide, so you must use free agency.   

How many productive free agents did Milwaukee sign in winning the WS?

[RpR]

😂

4 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yeah, that’s all Jeffers could teach - how to have a better arm.  Nothing else. Catching in the majors is only about throwing out runners and everything else either isn’t important or something young players just pick up on their own.

What a ridiculous comment.  

LOL, 🤣It is about being good enough to influence the opposing runners not to run, and teaching rookies how to do it.   But if run-at-will , is OK with you, to each his own.😎

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

😂

LOL, 🤣It is about being good enough to influence the opposing runners not to run, and teaching rookies how to do it.   But if run-at-will , is OK with you, to each his own.😎

👍. 

[tony&rodney]

Can someone start a petition to end all articles involving any discussion of Ryan Jeffers? This topic has been beat to death. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 hours ago, Historyking88 said:

Bednar is one of the best closers in baseball. He instantly transforms your bullpen to at least good. And who cares about the comp pick when you will get a comp pick for Jeffers signing elsewhere which effectively negates that entire argument. Bednar also has several good prime years left and has been healthy for the majority of his career. So again tell me why they shouldn’t sign him? 

This bullpen is more than one reliever away from “good” but if the pen were already good, he could make it great.

[HerbieFan]

10 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Free agency comes down to overpaying for declining years based on the quality of production before FA.  I prefer trades and developing young players. 

So do the Brewers and Rays :)

[Cris E]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How many productive free agents did Milwaukee sign in winning the WS?

Bauers. Did you know the previous 1B in MIL, Rhys Hoskins, was also a free agent?  That was fun.  Now lets try the Rays:  Nick Martinez, Steven Matz, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo, and minor league free agent Cam Booser.

Here's what you should take from this: Not that free agency is bad, but that there are better ways to go when acquiring players. You should avail yourself of the most efficient way possible to fill your roster spots, so if you can't draft and develop then trade, and if you can't trade you should buy on the open market. You can try to go with youth growing into the job, but if that doesn't happen do not go without, find a real player.  That's the lesson.  The Twins are very passive in acquiring talent, valuing their own guys too highly and dreaming of possible improvements rather than their likeliness.  That's what TP and Zell need to take to heart.

 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

Bauers. Did you know the previous 1B in MIL, Rhys Hoskins, was also a free agent?  That was fun.  Now lets try the Rays:  Nick Martinez, Steven Matz, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo, and minor league free agent Cam Booser.

Here's what you should take from this: Not that free agency is bad, but that there are better ways to go when acquiring players. You should avail yourself of the most efficient way possible to fill your roster spots, so if you can't draft and develop then trade, and if you can't trade you should buy on the open market. You can try to go with youth growing into the job, but if that doesn't happen do not go without, find a real player.  That's the lesson.  The Twins are very passive in acquiring talent, valuing their own guys too highly and dreaming of possible improvements rather than their likeliness.  That's what TP and Zell need to take to heart.

 

I agree but let's not use Bauers without context.  he did nothing before this year and if the Twins signed a similar type of player this year it would absolutely smacked down here.  

Hoskins is an example of failure not success. He produced a grand total of 1.1 WAR in 2 seasons.

The Rays have done a great job of getting a lot out of modest priced free agents.  Nick Martinez signed for $9M which is not much for a SP.  He is not the type of signing posters here are looking for the Twins to sign.

The point was definitely not that the twins should not sign free agents.  I responded to the statement "Every team has to bring in talent from outside the organization to augment what the draft and develop source does not provide, so you must use free agency."    I think it's more accurate to say that free agency is a much less effective way to try to put together a roster when you fail to draft and/or trade for prospects.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Bednar was shaky with the Yankees at times last year. Hard pass.

I'm probably in the minority but I'd like to see Jeffers back on a multi-year deal. He'll get four on the open market and I don't think the Twins will be willing to do that.

[Cris E]

@Major League Ready No sir. You asked a very simple, context-free question that had a very obvious answer.  The answer is, when you don't have a 1B you have to go sign one. And hey, it worked.  

Free agency is more than seven year $200m contracts. In fact it's usually not a large deal.  A couple years for a reliever, your bridge SS, a back-end starter, that's how you build a roster. Look at the Rays list again. 

It sounds like I'm splitting hairs, but in fact once the top 8-10 guys are gone (and I would like to get one of them) all the rest are the short time, middle dollar types that every team picks through and adds from every year.

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Can someone start a petition to end all articles involving any discussion of Ryan Jeffers? This topic has been beat to death. 

Hard to avoid in any serious discussion about free agency, considering the Twins have a hole for 2027 at catcher and Jeffers is easily the best FA available.

[tony&rodney]

52 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Hard to avoid in any serious discussion about free agency, considering the Twins have a hole for 2027 at catcher and Jeffers is easily the best FA available.

There have been a dozen articles that include Jeffers. Jeffers is not close to the best free agent available. He is the best slugging catcher available. As has been discussed, Jeffers catches 80 games and maybe that could be pushed to 90 or even 100. There are a pile of glove catchers available. The key remains .... the budget. A $170M number has room for Jeffers. The TD number of $130M makes that real iffy. In any event, we should be able to agree that people have their thoughts and those positions have been made hundreds of time since the season ended.