Twins’ Biggest Prospect Risers and Fallers in 2026

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins’ farm system looked a lot different at the end of 2026 than it did at the beginning. A number of top prospects made their way to Target Field this season, with names like Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, and Emmanuel Rodriguez all reaching the majors. There was also plenty of movement throughout the organization, as players climbed levels, battled through injuries, and either strengthened or weakened their standing within the system.

With all that movement came changes in the Twins’ prospect rankings. Let’s take a look at a couple of the biggest risers and fallers in the organization over the course of the year, starting with the risers.

Hendry Mendez
Mendez entered the season ranked as Twins Daily’s No. 16 prospect, but he now sits all the way up at No. 7. It’s easy to see why. Across 102 games between Double-A Wichita and Triple-A St. Paul, Mendez slashed .281/.374/.430, good for an .804 OPS. While the power numbers don’t immediately jump off the page—he hit 12 home runs and recorded just 31 total extra-base hits—power has never really been the main selling point of his game.

Instead, Mendez has built his profile around making consistent contact and controlling the strike zone, and those skills took a noticeable step forward this season. His 91.4% zone contact rate is excellent, and his 23% chase rate points to a hitter who understands the strike zone and rarely expands it. That combination is a strong foundation for offensive success, especially for a player who already puts plenty of balls in play.

There’s a very good chance Mendez makes his major-league debut in 2027, and if those bat-to-ball skills translate the way the Twins hope they will, he could make an impact fairly quickly.

Riley Quick
Quick entered the year as the Twins’ No. 11 prospect and now finds himself firmly inside the top five. Considering the questions surrounding him entering the season, that’s a significant jump. The Twins selected Quick 36th overall in the 2025 draft, but there was understandable uncertainty due to his limited collegiate workload and previous Tommy John surgery. This year didn’t erase every concern, but it answered quite a few of them. Quick threw 81 2/3 innings across Low-A, High-A, and Double-A, striking out 110 hitters in the process. His 30.6% strikeout rate showcased exactly why the Twins were so intrigued by his upside in the first place.

The swing-and-miss stuff was obvious. That said, there’s still work to do. Quick posted a 13.4% walk rate, and command remains the biggest hurdle standing between him and the major leagues. He also struggled after reaching Double-A, finishing with a 6.68 ERA at the level. Still, those concerns shouldn’t overshadow the overall picture.

For a pitcher making his first full season of professional starts after Tommy John surgery, this was a successful year. And with a strong 2027 season, Quick could find himself pitching at Target Field sooner rather than later. It was an encouraging year for Mendez and Quick, but unfortunately, it wasn’t all good. Let’s take a look at a couple of fallers.

Eduardo Tait
Tait entered the season as Twins Daily’s No. 4 prospect, but he’ll finish the year at No. 8. That drop stands out even more when considering that Connor Prielipp, Dasan Hill, and Kendry Rojas — three of the four players ranked immediately behind him entering the year — all lost their prospect eligibility.

Even with openings near the top of the rankings, Tait slid four spots. Over 116 games with High-A Cedar Rapids, Tait slashed .221/.281/.418, producing a .699 OPS. Those are underwhelming numbers for one of the organization’s top offensive prospects, but there’s also reason to believe the season wasn’t quite as disappointing as the stat line suggests.

His strikeout rate improved slightly compared to 2025, and his walk rate moved in the right direction as well. Tait also finished with a .243 BABIP, which suggests he may have suffered from some poor batted-ball luck. With a few more balls finding grass, his season could have looked considerably different.

Still, prospect rankings are heavily influenced by production, and Tait’s overall numbers simply weren’t strong enough to maintain his previous standing.

Marco Raya
Raya entered the season ranked as the Twins’ No. 15 prospect, but despite making his major league debut this year, he now sits outside the organization’s top 20.

He did pitch well in his brief time with the Twins, allowing two earned runs over six innings, but his Triple-A season told a different story. Across 64 1/3 innings with St. Paul, Raya posted a 5.32 ERA while allowing 14 home runs. It marked the second straight season with an ERA north of five, and that's started to reshape what his future role looks like.

That doesn’t mean there weren’t positives. Raya improved his strikeout rate from 22.6% in 2025 to 27.8% this year, and his walk rate dropped from 12.6% to 9.1%. Those are meaningful steps in the right direction. But keeping the ball in the park remains a major issue.

At this point, it’s still very possible that Raya can carve out a role in the Twins’ bullpen, and there’s enough arm talent to believe he can contribute in the majors. However, the hope of him developing into a quality starting pitcher has faded considerably. That makes 2027 an important season for Raya, and in many ways, for several players throughout the system.

Prospect rankings can change quickly. One strong season can send a player soaring up the board, while one disappointing year can create new questions. The Twins saw plenty of both in 2026, and the answers those players provide next season will go a long way toward shaping the future of the organization.

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[DJL44]

Rising: Caden Kendle, Ben Ross

Falling: Charlee Soto, Quentin Young

[Blyleven2011]

Balazovich comes to mind on the hype we kept hearing about him , what happened , he fizzled out …

quick is moving through the system relatively fast , hope all the hype pans out …

raya dropping in the list is alarming , he is definitely just a bullpen arm going forward and still young enough to have upside …

[Linus]

I have a much different view of these profiles. Mendez is ok but has no speed or power and is not a good fielder. Quick is a huge question mark to me. You have to hope the poor control was due to TJ - if it wasn’t he isnt going anywhere. Given his age, I’m not nearly as worried about Tait. I don’t think Raya is a legit prospect anymore - he’s never performed in the upper minors for any length of time. An obvious riser not mentioned is Winokur. 

[old nurse]

59 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Balazovich comes to mind on the hype we kept hearing about him , what happened , he fizzled out …

quick is moving through the system relatively fast , hope all the hype pans out …

raya dropping in the list is alarming , he is definitely just a bullpen arm going forward and still young enough to have upside …

Prospect rankings do not value bullpen arms yet a back of the bullpen arm is a valuable player 

[Brandon]

Raya is becoming more of a pitcher than a thrower.  If his role is mid reliever that is still obtainable.  

What the author said about prospect rankings being on production and not potential is pure garbage.  Tait had a low average and on base but his power developed and his strikeouts decreased.  Seems he is making adjustments.  Let's wait and see.  

CJ Culpepper pitched ok in AAA.  Why isn't he talked about more? He is a reliever now and that is his likely ceiling.

 

 

[Eris]

MLB is has updated their top 100 prospect list. Tait and Emmanuel Rodriguez are no longer on the list. Houston in 54th. Not sure exactly when they were removed as I can’t see the full list for the mid season update. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

I see the strikeout numbers from Quick. Those look good. But a 6.68 ERA really moves you into the Top 5? Even Mendez with an .804 OPS isnt all that impressive. No power will only be less against ML pitching and its unlikely he maintains a .374 OBP. Also, no defense. Having those 2 jump so high doesnt give me hope at all.

Our system was filled with a lot of bad seasons from players who were supposed to be prospects. Charlee Soto, Quentin Young, Tait. Even QuicK performed poorly IMO and moved up. Not a single pitcher in AAA gives me any excitement. 

There werent a ton of good performances. Caden Kendle, Khadim Diaw, Marek Houston, Lackey.  

Wallner and Sabato had great AAA seasons but likely won't be back next season. 

[D.C Twins]

I'm bullish on Raya as a quality cheap 7th-9th inning MLB bullpen piece. This was year 1 of the transition. He will be more comfortable next year

I think Quick eventually becomes a high leverage bullpen arm

[TopGunn#22]

Yeah, this is a pretty tepid list of those who were "risers" and guys like Raya have done little to merit attention as anything more than a fringe prospect.  Maybe this is the result of seeing Jenkins, Culpepper, Keaschall, E-Rod, Prielipp, Matthews, and others transitioning to the big league club, but otherwise it doesn't appear anyone other than Marek Houston is making a strong case to break camp with the team or join by the All Star game.

Guys like Wallner or Martin seem like trade candidates this off season as well.

Other than Tait, where are all the other catching prospects?  I have been operating under the assumption that they were progressing nicely.  In the case of Tait, if your walk rate is trending in the right direction but your OBP is still just .281, it must have been a rather modest upward trend.  He was supposed to have good power when we acquired him.  12 HR's isn't "bad" necessarily, but I thought he might blow past 15 this year, even getting to 19-20.  

If the Twins are going to acquire a catcher that can essentially be our #1 for 2027 and move Caratini to a backup role, I thought someone like Tait or one of the other young catchers not named Lackey or Tilly could be included in the deal.  We're supposed to have a surplus of catching talent in the minors.  Is Tait packaged with someone like Ober good enough to bring us a starting MLB catcher like the Padres Campusano, or CWS Edgar Quero, maybe Susac from the Giants?  

I still like Riley Quick's potential and would focus more on the fact that he returned from Tommy John and had a healthy season.  2027 there should be greater scrutiny of his raw numbers.  His command should be the #1 priority.  The "stuff" is pretty good.  

[LambchoP]

We have a few good looking hitters in the minors. Of course after Culpeper, Jenkins and Rodriguez all got called up we have a lot less. I'm more worried about the pitching prospect pipeline. Mainly the fact that we don't have one. We really should have traded, Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach, Bell, Wallner, Martin and Rodgers for whatever we could get...

[HerbieFan]

22 hours ago, Linus said:

I have a much different view of these profiles. Mendez is ok but has no speed or power and is not a good fielder. Quick is a huge question mark to me. You have to hope the poor control was due to TJ - if it wasn’t he isnt going anywhere. Given his age, I’m not nearly as worried about Tait. I don’t think Raya is a legit prospect anymore - he’s never performed in the upper minors for any length of time. An obvious riser not mentioned is Winokur. 

Like Winokur a lot as well

[HerbieFan]

A big riser for me is Marek Houston.  I know he was a first round pick.  To me he's a big riser because of what he showed.  We knew the glove is elite.  But the offense has come around in a big way.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

Like Winokur a lot as well

For whatever reason, people remain convinced he's a prospect after 4 years of disappointing performances.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

On 10/3/2026 at 12:12 AM, DJL44 said:

Falling: Charlee Soto, Quentin Young

I know that Soto keeps having injury issues, but they don't seem major ones at this point. Does it seem like he will be healthy heading into next season or is it too early to tell?

[Fatbat]

There is a young crop of pitchers developing but none of them have taken a huge step towards MLB. Hopefully’27 will bring that development into play. 
Houston and Mendez definitely took a step forward in the batters box but both have plenty of development to go before they are called up. Winokur needs even more. 
They upper minors has thinned out with all the rookies mKing their debut but those milb spots will be filled and with talented kids!! 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

I know that Soto keeps having injury issues, but they don't seem major ones at this point. Does it seem like he will be healthy heading into next season or is it too early to tell?

 

From a quick A.I. interwebs search, you see a very Matt Canterino-like injury history.

Injury Timeline

Date	Injury Description	Status
April 29, 2025	Right triceps strain	Placed on 7-day injured list
June 17, 2025	Transferred to 60-day injured list	Extended recovery
March 11, 2026	Elbow surgery (bone spur removal)	Expected to miss early season
May 18, 2026	Wrist ligament sprain	Began rehab
June 2026	Forearm soreness during rehab	Rehab assignment paused
September 21, 2026	Activated from 7-day injured list	Currently active

Right forearm strain - Concerning

Right forearm strain that takes nearly a full season? 95% going to need TJ sooner than later

Elbow surgery - Never heard of elbow surgery being considered minor. 

Wrist ligament sprain - Odd one, but that's a very important part of the pitcher's body the moment he starts a rehab. Not minor.

Right forearm "soreness" - See extreme forearm strain history already. Needs TJ

[bean5302]

Biggest faller for me is Charlee Soto. From a potential front line starter to potentially never making an appearance in MLB is catastrophic.