Who Deserves the Blame for Another Second-Half Collapse by the Twins?

[IndianaTwin]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There might be six threads on this whole site if we didn't analyze things we didn't control, and the site would fold. 

😀

I just think using the language of "analyzing" rather than "blame" ratchets down the emotions and contributes to better comment threads. I think "analysis" rather than "blame" allows for more nuance when part of the answer is sometimes that "life happens." 

(I think your comment is in response to mine. If not, my apologies.)

EDIT to add: As in, I appreciate your analysis above noting that this hasn't really been a collapse, but rather an extension of a team that has generally played a few games below .500. That's much more helpful to the conversation than another diatribe.

 

[TheLeviathan]

38 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

On this we agree.

Well... except this deadline part. The off-season was the time to set the correct course.

Joe Ryan was probably half his January trade value at the trade deadline. That would have pissed me off more than keeping him using all of his trade value by hanging on to him until the very end and getting nothing at all. 

 

 

 

I thought we should have moved him last year, but I just want to be clear:

You think from January 2026 to July 2026 his value halved?

[ashbury]

We played the blame game continually during the past 12 months or so.  The manager was incompetent and so a replacement was found.  The POBO was incompetent so he and ownership agreed to part ways, and someone else is driving the roster decisions.  The team was peeking its head above .500 at the end of July and the roster was rewarded with replenishments in the area of greatest weakness, the bullpen, and those acquired players have as a group performed well, yet the team as a whole laid an egg during August just when you would think they'd be inspired to get better.  Now we ask again whom to blame.

The nice thing about advocating "sell" instead of "buy" at the deadline is that the blame game for those moves won't come around until half a decade later when the prospects collected in trade demonstrate their merit or lack of same.

Articles like these suggest easy answers are possible.  I can't help but tune out.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

We played the blame game continually during the past 12 months or so.  The manager was incompetent and so a replacement was found.  The POBO was incompetent so he and ownership agreed to part ways, and someone else is driving the roster decisions.  The team was peeking its head above .500 at the end of July and the roster was rewarded with replenishments in the area of greatest weakness, the bullpen, and those acquired players have as a group performed well, yet the team as a whole laid an egg during August just when you would think they'd get better.  Now we ask again whom to blame.

The nice thing about advocating "sell" instead of "buy" at the deadline is that the blame game for those moves won't come around until half a decade later when the prospects collected in trade demonstrate their merit or lack of same.

Articles like these suggest easy answers are possible.  I can't help but tune out.

Other than a few here, I'm not sure most people say the answers are easy.  But I could be wrong. 

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I thought we should have moved him last year, but I just want to be clear:

You think from January 2026 to July 2026 his value halved?

I'd say it's about one fourth. 

[JADBP]

6 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

It's the entire structure. The Twins have spent plenty of time talking about building a sustainable contender. Now they have to prove they know how to actually do it.

This is where Pohlad needs to prove himself going forward, can he identify the right team to lead the process of building a sustainable contender.  I don't believe Zoll is that person, rostering Gray and Jackson was the final proof of this.  So can he hire someone and let them do their job and give them the reasonable resources necessary.

That is what I will be looking for this offseason so we can hopefully get off this treadmill of mediocrity. 

You hit the nail on the head!  I'd have to say the fault is 90% Zoll and 10% Falvey.  Its their job to run the ENTIRE organization!!!

The owner's job is to fund their investment and select able managers to run the organization.  They are funding, albeit at modest levels.  But what the organization does with that money is up to Zoll (and formerly, Falvey).  I keep saying that it will take some years, maybe 2-3-4 years, to undo Falvey's mistakes.  Now Zoll.....new boss same as the old boss--not undoing.

Shelton has to do the best with what he is given.  But he isn't even given a full team...carrying 3 catchers means he is wasting one spot on the bench with dead weight that he refuses to play.  And, not just the catchers! He's carried other dead weight throughout the season.  He just doesn't play them! Wallner, early Lewis, RPs, etc.  

And, Shelton doesn't make promotions.  Zoll does.  Holding back all that ready OF talent available in AAA (instead, watching Wallner, Keaschall, and several others fumble around in the OF) is NOT Shelton's fault.  Its Zoll's fault.  

The players can take some blame if you say that Wallner is useless in an MLB RF.  It is Zoll who built this mess of a team.

Maybe our facilities or training or medical staff or coaching or something else is the reason for so many injuries?  But you can't blame the players in AAA who Zoll never (or too late) promoted.  

Zoll is the reason the roster is so screwed up.  While we can certainly blame him for some of the flailing additions he's made in his tenure, we must also lay blame on Zoll for the moves he DIDN'T make.  He  could have moved Jeffers for a key future piece (why the H are we carrying three C's if we kept him?).  I know he tried to trade Larnach, but he should have had a backup plan to pivot once the deal fell through.  Larnach was immediately replaceable with any of three great AAA OFers at minimum cost. Those, and several other non-trades, demonstrated that Zoll is simply not ready for the big time. 

As a minumum, Zoll could help dampen the criticism if he was a little more open about his through process.  But, he spews nonsense.  He must have spent too much time watching Joe P.

The one thing that Pohlad has to do besides invest was choose a management team to run the team.  Zoll was promoted into the job because Pohlad had few other options on Jan 30.  Now he has had time to watch Zoll flounder, we dearly hope that he brings in an experienced, professional baseball manager to run the organization!  That's our best hope for a winning future!

[Saxophone Joe]

11 minutes ago, Czelgert said:

You cannot give away almost 10 wins in the first half of the season with a minor league level bullpen and think that will make no difference when there are inevitable stumbles in the second half.  

Almost 10 games might be on the generous side. The Reds, Pirates, first KC home series, etc. all come to mind. Credit to the pen, they did a much better job from mid-June into August. But the damage was done. 

[HarmonK03]

1 minute ago, JADBP said:

You hit the nail on the head!  I'd have to say the fault is 90% Zoll and 10% Falvey.  Its their job to run the ENTIRE organization!!!

The owner's job is to fund their investment and select able managers to run the organization.  They are funding, albeit at modest levels.  But what the organization does with that money is up to Zoll (and formerly, Falvey).  I keep saying that it will take some years, maybe 2-3-4 years, to undo Falvey's mistakes.  Now Zoll.....new boss same as the old boss--not undoing.

Shelton has to do the best with what he is given.  But he isn't even given a full team...carrying 3 catchers means he is wasting one spot on the bench with dead weight that he refuses to play.  And, not just the catchers! He's carried other dead weight throughout the season.  He just doesn't play them! Wallner, early Lewis, RPs, etc.  

And, Shelton doesn't make promotions.  Zoll does.  Holding back all that ready OF talent available in AAA (instead, watching Wallner, Keaschall, and several others fumble around in the OF) is NOT Shelton's fault.  Its Zoll's fault.  

The players can take some blame if you say that Wallner is useless in an MLB RF.  It is Zoll who built this mess of a team.

Maybe our facilities or training or medical staff or coaching or something else is the reason for so many injuries?  But you can't blame the players in AAA who Zoll never (or too late) promoted.  

Zoll is the reason the roster is so screwed up.  While we can certainly blame him for some of the flailing additions he's made in his tenure, we must also lay blame on Zoll for the moves he DIDN'T make.  He  could have moved Jeffers for a key future piece (why the H are we carrying three C's if we kept him?).  I know he tried to trade Larnach, but he should have had a backup plan to pivot once the deal fell through.  Larnach was immediately replaceable with any of three great AAA OFers at minimum cost. Those, and several other non-trades, demonstrated that Zoll is simply not ready for the big time. 

As a minumum, Zoll could help dampen the criticism if he was a little more open about his through process.  But, he spews nonsense.  He must have spent too much time watching Joe P.

The one thing that Pohlad has to do besides invest was choose a management team to run the team.  Zoll was promoted into the job because Pohlad had few other options on Jan 30.  Now he has had time to watch Zoll flounder, we dearly hope that he brings in an experienced, professional baseball manager to run the organization!  That's our best hope for a winning future!

Yes it was too late to bring someone in January to replace Zoll.  But he could have brought in a senior advisor type, other teams have done this.  Also I believe Zoll had a bigger hand then we realize on constructing this roster during the offseason.  He was Falvey's #2, I am sure he had a lot of input into the roster and who to sign and not sign.  That is my frustration so many act like Zoll just got here, he has been here for 10 years and is a major part of this mess we are in even if he wasn't the top decision maker.

Also Zoll learned corporate speak from Falvey. it just sounds like Charlie Brown's mom whenever he speaks.

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I thought we should have moved him last year, but I just want to be clear:

You think from January 2026 to July 2026 his value halved?

I have no way of knowing so I can only guess like the rest of us. But... Yeah... I'm obviously making up a number but his value would have dropped significantly.

His primary value was this year at 6 million and that primary value was largely eaten up by the Twins.  

Two years at 19 Million... Compared to a year and two months at 15 million?

His pending arb raise alone is going to drop his value significantly. Not to mention two absolute dreadful performances where he gave up 12 runs right before the deadline that is going to plant that injury doubt in the nervous heads of buyers.   

You can only recoup that value with trade deadline desperation and then when you look around the league and notice that there isn't really a comparable but nobody was coughing up the elite prospects. Yeah... I think we took a trade value hit to the shorts. 

 

[David Maro]

People are missing the point I was making this team will look to sign Lewis to a Buxton type deal and he will remain a Twin for years to come. When he and Wallner should be moved in the OS so the team doesn't have to deal with someone who is in St Paul or Slumping for the Twins. Until the other night when the game was over and no pressure Lewis was 5 for 59 or some ridiculous number. He needs and they need a change of scenery. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Speaking as someone who just came home to a fresh batch of banana chocolate chip muffins made by Mrs. IT, I concur. 

Tasty

[Major League Ready]

58 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

On this we agree.

Well... except this deadline part. The off-season was the time to set the correct course.

Joe Ryan was probably half his January trade value at the trade deadline. That would have pissed me off more than keeping him using all of his trade value by hanging on to him until the very end and getting nothing at all. 

 

This IMO is the difference between Tampa / Cleveland / Milwaukee and the Twins.  They understand that everyone gets 20 draft picks and they can't buy an advantage.  Therefore, they must turn short-term assets into long-term assets if they are to amass enough impact talent to contend.

If the report of Tolle / Arias for Ryan is true, that's the type of trade that elevates a team from a mid 80-win team to 90-win team.  They also failed to cash in on Jeffers and to a lesser degree Larnach.  This failure is one of the reasons we have perpetual mediocrity.  It really rubs me the wrong way this time around because they well-positioned to rebuild very quickly.  I think they will still be decent as soon as next year but they blew a chance to elevate the organization for several years based on the delusion this team was a contender.  

[Patzky]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

There was no collapse. The Twins were under .500 at the break.

Well we gained 0.5 games in the division standings today but fell 0.5 further back in the wildcard race. Such is life in September. 

HOU 6 CHW 2 (f)

TOR 6 CLE 3 (f)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Yeah, didn't you hear Plouffe recently on the broadcast? The players don't have time to focus on bunting🤣

All they have to do at every batting practice is to bunt the first pitch thrown down the first base line and the second pitch thrown down the third base line and then resume regular hitting practice. That takes 10 seconds. This way at least bunting in a game  is not such a novelty.  I honestly think part of the reluctance to bunt is the normal , unspoken fear of getting hit in the face while turning to bunt, since pitchers are taught to throw up and in as a defense against the bunt. I know I always thought about that when I bunted in my high school games.  And when I was pitching in high school, I was taught to throw up and in at bunters.  Maybe that was just me.  Maybe I was taught wrong. 

[Saxophone Joe]

23 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Also Zoll learned corporate speak from Falvey. 

[Riverbrian]

17 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

This IMO is the difference between Tampa / Cleveland / Milwaukee and the Twins.  They understand that everyone gets 20 draft picks and they can't buy an advantage.  Therefore, they must turn short-term assets into long-term assets if they are to amass enough impact talent to contend.

If the report of Tolle / Arias for Ryan is true, that's the type of trade that elevates a team from a mid 80-win team to 90-win team.  They also failed to cash in on Jeffers and to a lesser degree Larnach.  This failure is one of the reasons we have perpetual mediocrity.  It really rubs me the wrong way this time around because they well-positioned to rebuild very quickly.  I think they will still be decent as soon as next year but they blew a chance to elevate the organization for several years based on the delusion this team was a contender.  

There is a contention from many on this website that rebuilds (or re-whatevers) means a long period of darkness.  

I simply don't believe that is the case at all. It can result in that depending on the depth of the rebuild... for example trading everything not nailed down. But...  I've been paying close attentioni to the youth coming into the other 29 teams and seeing success with youth.   

There are scales to everything. You don't have to trade everyone. The Brewers cashed out Burnes, Peralta, Hader and they added to the farm system in those deals. Some panned out... Some didn't but they cleared space for more incoming youth. Today they own the best record in baseball and the starting staff (even without Woodruff) is perhaps the best in baseball... Not on Paper but by measurement of 2026 results. The Brewers know they can't compete with the big boys in the big boys free agent market. 

All anyone has to do is look around the league at the other 29 teams and take note of what the Nats young offense is doing? The Cardinals have been tough to deal with. The Marlins, The White Sox. 

The Twins can't take the Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies approach. They can't unless the CBA changes drastically. 

They have to make a similar commitment to youth and they have to be good at it and that will mean that they have to trade peak value players to get peak value prices in return. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, MeleMouth said:

There is only one possible "Carlos Correa move" in free agency this year, which would be to sign Skubal. That has maybe a 1% chance of happening and maybe a 10% chance of working out better than the Donaldson and Correa signings if it does. (Remember how everyone wanted to say "good riddance" to both of them within about 18 months?) The price for Skubal would also be much higher than the price for Correa, so high that it would eat most of the team's budget, making it difficult to plug any other holes.

They could try to make a trade, superior to Arraez for Lopez, but to get talent superior to Lopez they would probably have to offer Jenkins plus another top prospect. That sounds like a good way to continue the Twins' streak of futility. (Since 2011, tied for second-worst playoff record in MLB; since Falvey's arrival in 2017, fourth worst in playoff wins among the 28 teams that have qualified for the playoffs, and absolute worst in winning percentage.)

If Pohlad really wants to run the team well, he should tell his baseball experts to come up with a sustainable plan that requires two to three years to execute. Trying to solve years of meandering and oscillating by one or two big moves is what they keep doing; doing it again would be a good way to extend their mediocrity.

We have to stop thinking in terms of quick fixes to deep problems.

Yeah, I have hardly any interest in free agency. I'd be looking to make a big splash for a big player with a big contract via trade. 

And no, they wouldn't have to trade Jenkins to get someone as good as Lopez. Arraez had value, but nowhere close to the value Jenkins has. Less than half the value. 

[Brandon]

The Twins are 2nd behind the White Sox in Runs Scored and 2nd in the league in most runs given up.  You tell me who the culprit is.  But it's kinda staring us in the face.  Our pitching staff.  So injuries to 4 starters Ryan, Abel, Lopez and Festa and implosion of Woods-Richardson and a bullpen that wasn't fully constructed properly after last season's sell off until this seasons trade deadline buys.  After saying all that I am sure it's not the pitching staff.  Definitely not them...🤔

At this point we are a healthy Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez away from being serious contenders.  Maybe injuries are the problem.....

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I have no way of knowing so I can only guess like the rest of us. But... Yeah... I'm obviously making up a number but his value would have dropped significantly.

His primary value was this year at 6 million and that primary value was largely eaten up by the Twins.  

Two years at 19 Million... Compared to a year and two months at 15 million?

His pending arb raise alone is going to drop his value significantly. Not to mention two absolute dreadful performances where he gave up 12 runs right before the deadline that is going to plant that injury doubt in the nervous heads of buyers.   

You can only recoup that value with trade deadline desperation and then when you look around the league and notice that there isn't really a comparable but nobody was coughing up the elite prospects. Yeah... I think we took a trade value hit to the shorts. 

 

I look at it slightly different than you and @Mike Sixel.  I think the value last deadline (2025) was peak.  I'd probably quarter it in the offseason and half it since then.  So for me the dip from offseason to deadline isn't nearly as steep.

However....whenever we deal him from now on the values get steeply worse.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

I look at it slightly different than you and @Mike Sixel.  I think the value last deadline (2025) was peak.  I'd probably quarter it in the offseason and half it since then.  So for me the dip from offseason to deadline isn't nearly as steep.

However....whenever we deal him from now on the values get steeply worse.

Absolutely last deadline was peak, but I still think two top 100 guys and another this off-season was possible. Now? One guy at the bottom of the top 100 and a guy around 175....

[JADBP]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

Yes it was too late to bring someone in January to replace Zoll.  But he could have brought in a senior advisor type, other teams have done this.  Also I believe Zoll had a bigger hand then we realize on constructing this roster during the offseason.  He was Falvey's #2, I am sure he had a lot of input into the roster and who to sign and not sign.  That is my frustration so many act like Zoll just got here, he has been here for 10 years and is a major part of this mess we are in even if he wasn't the top decision maker.

Also Zoll learned corporate speak from Falvey. it just sounds like Charlie Brown's mom whenever he speaks.

You are right....Zoll has had a part in this for many years.  That's why I assigned him 90%--I was going to go 80/20 for Zoll/Falguy,  But then I realized he is probably far more to blame than we can see.  Day to day operations, lack of training facilities, poor minors coaching/training, lots of problems from one end to the other.  And, if it is really this messed up (just look at all the roster f'ups!), then WHY didn't Zoll change anything/fix anything?  He just kept on doing what Falvey taught him to do.

There is only one long term fix that is absolutely imperative for the Twins:  replace the Zoll organization--starting with Zoll.  Its the only way we ever get out of this mess.  

The LAD Dodgers are a fantastic team NOT because of an owner that throws massive money at the players payroll (see, for example, the NY Mets)--its because the owner built a great team from end to end.  Great facilities, great scouts, great management, great marketing, great, smart everything!

[TheLeviathan]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Absolutely last deadline was peak, but I still think two top 100 guys and another this off-season was possible. Now? One guy at the bottom of the top 100 and a guy around 175....

Yeah I can't disagree too much, obviously we're all guessing until we get info like Tolle/Arias down the line.  Your stance is definitely plausible.  

And what I'm about to say for those reading is a fact: we lost that value and have absolutely nothing to show for it.   Walker Jenkins and the rest of the new Twins will get zero of that lost value to help them rise up.

This board should get used to hearing about opportunity cost.  We've been swimming in it.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

Yeah I can't disagree too much, obviously we're all guessing until we get info like Tolle/Arias down the line.  Your stance is definitely plausible.  

And what I'm about to say for those reading is a fact: we lost that value and have absolutely nothing to show for it.   Walker Jenkins and the rest of the new Twins will get zero of that lost value to help them rise up.

This board should get used to hearing about opportunity cost.  We've been swimming in it.

Those same people will say there aren't any young guys to call up and it's the fault of the same management that they praised for not selling. 

[JADBP]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Yeah sure but the article was implying "another 2nd half collapse".  

The 2nd half has been pretty heavily influenced by that stretch of games that I highlighted. 

The Twins were 15-9 in July. 

11-18 in August. 

26-27 for both months. It's .500 ball and that is where you find most teams during most 30 game stretches or entire seasons.  .500 ball is where half of them reside at any given time and .500 isn't a collapse... it's normal. 

Where does the 2nd half start? If it's game 82. The Twins were 38-43 in the first half and that means 29-30 in the 2nd half. If it's the all-star break. We were 48-49 at the all star break. We are 19-24 since.  

Season's are up and downs and if the Twins or any team can control the roller coaster. We would all have to find something else to complain about. 

Now... if the purpose of this article is to get the TD posters to attack prior decision making. OK... in that case... I have my criticisms... I would have taken another approach in the off season... However... my approach... your approach... anybody's approach wouldn't be immune to a sub par stretch of baseball at any given time of the season like our August has been. 

Case in point... The Dodgers are 13-17 in their past 30 games. The Dodgers like the other 29 teams do not have immunity from the ups and downs. 

 

 

 

Uhhh....the Dodgers are 82/57!  I wouldn't mind a 13-17 stretch when you are 9 games ahead of the 2nd place team!  Poor choice of case in point.

[JADBP]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

We played the blame game continually during the past 12 months or so.  The manager was incompetent and so a replacement was found.  The POBO was incompetent so he and ownership agreed to part ways, and someone else is driving the roster decisions.  The team was peeking its head above .500 at the end of July and the roster was rewarded with replenishments in the area of greatest weakness, the bullpen, and those acquired players have as a group performed well, yet the team as a whole laid an egg during August just when you would think they'd be inspired to get better.  Now we ask again whom to blame.

The nice thing about advocating "sell" instead of "buy" at the deadline is that the blame game for those moves won't come around until half a decade later when the prospects collected in trade demonstrate their merit or lack of same.

Articles like these suggest easy answers are possible.  I can't help but tune out.

The easy answer is to replace Zoll with a competent, experienced and professional baseball GM.

[JADBP]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Yes it was too late to bring someone in January to replace Zoll.  But he could have brought in a senior advisor type, other teams have done this.  Also I believe Zoll had a bigger hand then we realize on constructing this roster during the offseason.  He was Falvey's #2, I am sure he had a lot of input into the roster and who to sign and not sign.  That is my frustration so many act like Zoll just got here, he has been here for 10 years and is a major part of this mess we are in even if he wasn't the top decision maker.

Also Zoll learned corporate speak from Falvey. it just sounds like Charlie Brown's mom whenever he speaks.

On the one hand, a senior manager would have been a good idea...if Zoll would listen to him.  Even the great one, TK, had smart, experienced support around him.  On the other hand, if the ownership stuck with Zoll for the season and then he's gone, why bother to bring in backup in the Spring?  Why not just wait out the year.  

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, JADBP said:

Uhhh....the Dodgers are 82/57!  I wouldn't mind a 13-17 stretch when you are 9 games ahead of the 2nd place team!  Poor choice of case in point.

It's a poor choice if you miss the point. Agreed. 

All teams go through down stretches. 

Yes... The Dodgers haven't had as many of those things. 

[Major League Ready]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Those same people will say there aren't any young guys to call up and it's the fault of the same management that they praised for not selling. 

Funny how that works!