Joe Ryan Has Put The Twins in a Tough Spot

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd argue the opposite. The Twins were in a tough spot, but they have no decision left to make now, and the situation is very easy. A truly rebuilding team would've traded Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers before this season started. They would've maximized the number of shots they had at adding impact pieces for 2027/2028 and beyond. They changed plans mid-rebuild and decided not to trade those 3 guys. Lopez blew out his arm, Ryan collapsed again, and they kept Jeffers because the AL is abysmal. Lopez and Ryan aren't real trade chips anymore. The decision is easy now.

The only way this becomes a tough decision is if the AL is improved next year, the Twins are still hanging around .500, and Lopez and/or Ryan are having success and worth more than a comp pick in trade at the deadline. They have no decisions to make on the "big trade" front until next deadline. The Joe Ryan situation is incredibly simple now.

The fact that the decision has essentially been made for them does not mean they are in a good spot. Personally I thought trading Ryan — either at the deadline or in the offseason — was the obvious best course of action. I mean just look at the offer they rejected from Boston last year, franchise-changing. The way he was pitching as of a month ago would've opened up some pretty exciting possibilities. They are loaded on starting pitching depth going forward to absorb his loss. Alas, their leverage in any kind of trade talks has plummeted.

[howeda7]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Pretty sure they plan on Kremer filling the New Good Starter role. 

If Ryan is back, I see them choosing between Ober and Kremer and only tendering one of them. They will both make ~$7 million and if you keep them both plus Ryan, Lopez and Bradley there's no spots for Abel, Prelipp etc.

[nicksaviking]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If Joe Ryan wanted out he could've forced his way out pretty easily. I don't buy this for a second. If Joe Ryan demanded a trade last deadline, Joe Ryan would've been traded. If Joe Ryan demanded a trade this offseason, Joe Ryan would've been traded. If Joe Ryan demanded a trade this deadline, Joe Ryan would've been traded.

The Twins aren't stubbornly holding a disgruntled player for multiple years. I have no expectation that Joe will re-sign here, but if he wanted out so badly, he'd be out.

Not to mention a pitcher not giving it his all because he hates his team isn't exactly going to compel another team to trade for him. 

Or pay him his next contract, presuming that's important to said pitcher.

[Linus]

15 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

As the person on editing duty today, I'll wear this. The way I read it (and the way I'm sure Cody meant it) was "Joe Ryan's inability to hold up in the second half year after year puts the Twins in a tough spot." But I can see how it would read as unfairly accusatory. Obviously he's not trying to break down like this time and again.

I get your point but I still would push back on the premise. This is who Joe is - most of the posters on Twins Daily know the discrepancy between his first and second hand performances so the FO certainly should and act accordingly. If they can’t manage that dynamic it’s on them. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Pretty sure they plan on Kremer filling the New Good Starter role. 

Which is why I didn't like the trade and would have preferred Gausman/Ray/May/Peralta.

But if he keeps pitching well, it won't be a bad problem to have. And if he doesn't, his arbitration figure might make for an easy decision.

[mikelink45]

I need to take a different tact since this is an article designed to get the kind of responses that the commentors have posted.  We complain about Ryan failing in the second half and he has.  No debate there, but the question is - is there a remedy?  Because he is so good the first 1/2 - 2/3rds.  And he has pitched every year while Pablo Lopez is everyone's Ace despite the fact that injuries have kept him out of the rotation all this year and in 2025 he went out of the rotation on June 5.  

I am not arguing that Lopez is a bad pitcher, but the fact is, we have been able to count on Ryan more than Pablo.  Fix the problem.

[Craig Arko]

Vibranium arm replacement, just like Bucky. Maybe vibranium butt replacement as well.

[chpettit19]

35 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The fact that the decision has essentially been made for them does not mean they are in a good spot. Personally I thought trading Ryan — either at the deadline or in the offseason — was the obvious best course of action. I mean just look at the offer they rejected from Boston last year, franchise-changing. The way he was pitching as of a month ago would've opened up some pretty exciting possibilities. They are loaded on starting pitching depth going forward to absorb his loss. Alas, their leverage in any kind of trade talks has plummeted.

Oh, this is exactly why I spent all offseason saying they should trade Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers and that they don't just automatically have those pieces to trade for quality returns at future points. But I don't think I'd describe the situation as "tough." They made their choice, knew the risks, and got burned by the risks as far as their options to trade Ryan goes. 

I think the possibility of trading Ryan despite all of Tom's words since he took over was a tougher situation than they're in now. Preaching "we're in it to win cuz we care" and pushing the "we're buyers" storylines made doing the right baseball thing with Ryan more difficult. That decision is gone now. It's a bad situation, but not a tough one. Now you just sit back and hope he bounces back next season.

[HerbieFan]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Pretty sure they plan on Kremer filling the New Good Starter role. 

Eh.  I think they plan on Kremer being a #4/#5 guy.  Which is still a good get.

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Bradley is the ace on this team. Ryan is the #2 guy

I think that's they way things have played out this year. Remember, Ryan was never the #1 on the staff before Lopez got hurt; he was always a strong #2.  Next year, Lopez is the #1 again, assuming he's the same guy he used to be before the surgery. Bradley may be the #2 .

[Linus]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, this is exactly why I spent all offseason saying they should trade Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers and that they don't just automatically have those pieces to trade for quality returns at future points. But I don't think I'd describe the situation as "tough." They made their choice, knew the risks, and got burned by the risks as far as their options to trade Ryan goes. 

I think the possibility of trading Ryan despite all of Tom's words since he took over was a tougher situation than they're in now. Preaching "we're in it to win cuz we care" and pushing the "we're buyers" storylines made doing the right baseball thing with Ryan more difficult. That decision is gone now. It's a bad situation, but not a tough one. Now you just sit back and hope he bounces back next season.

Nailed it. A friends uncle was famous for his malaprops. He would say “ you’ve buttered your bread now lay in it”. The Twins buttered their bread let’s hope Ryan takes us somewhere. 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Ryan is making $6.2M. You rarely see arbitration salaries triple in one year. $13M is more likely.

Not sure how you forgot about the Skubal ruling?

The fair market value clause for final year of arbitration had been there since the start of the current CBA, but I don't know as it had ever been used. Skubal decided to push that and the arbiter agreed. Players in their final year of arbitration should be compared to fair market value as a free agent. 

Skubal 2025 $10.5MM. Estimate based on the old methodology $15MM-ish (50% increase). 

Tigers figure $19MM.

Skubal's ask $32MM.

There is no way in hell the MLBPA doesn't solidify the fair market value process in the next CBA.

[CRF]

Well...look at it this way. It's very possible that next season may not start on time...maybe a long lockout or even a strike. So, that means Ryan's first half...might not be until the second half of the season! There ya go! Problem solved! 🤪

[Wedman13]

7 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

Joe Ryan PUT the Twin is in a bind????

I am sure he spent hours trying to find a way to do that.

Uggg...one of the reasons I read less and less of the Twins Daily. 

Sensationalism.

Love a strong post.  But I do disagree.  I think JR is a good guy, a 3/4 on a good team.  Zero more, and that's awesome.  I'd take it.  But he is not an ace, surely not for 20 starts a year.  I'm glad we have him but the article is spot on

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Joe Ryan probably has minimal trade value this offseason. I don't think he's worth moving. There has to be an assumption his final arb contract is near $20MM so his trade value is going to be pretty low.

Isn’t ‘27 his last year of Team control? He’s signed through ‘27 at $13M …….. for what I thought was his last year….. - right?

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I think that's they way things have played out this year. Remember, Ryan was never the #1 on the staff before Lopez got hurt; he was always a strong #2.  Next year, Lopez is the #1 again, assuming he's the same guy he used to be before the surgery. Bradley may be the #2 .

I don’t know if Lopez or Bradley will start Opening Day in ‘27?  Regardless, Taj has the best stuff on the Staff with or without Pablo.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, CRF said:

Well...look at it this way. It's very possible that next season may not start on time...maybe a long lockout or even a strike. So, that means Ryan's first half...might not be until the second half of the season! There ya go! Problem solved! 🤪

Yeah, that's a good one, but it's actually a solid take. 

And that goes for any team that rosters a bunch of young players who might otherwise get worn down from playing a longer season than they have before. So, the vet laden big market clubs may lose an advantage if there are fewer games. Combine that with possible/likely onset of caps and floors AND that a change in the system means all teams have to start over tinkering to figure out new methodologies, and 2027 could be a year where a non-major market finally has a chance to break through and win it all.

[Linus]

20 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Isn’t ‘27 his last year of Team control? He’s signed through ‘27 at $13M …….. for what I thought was his last year….. - right?

It’s a mutual option which usually don’t end up happening. 

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

As the person on editing duty today, I'll wear this. The way I read it (and the way I'm sure Cody meant it) was "Joe Ryan's inability to hold up in the second half year after year puts the Twins in a tough spot." But I can see how it would read as unfairly accusatory. Obviously he's not trying to break down like this time and again.

Is it impossible to edit a headline (or article content, for that matter)?  Simply changing "Joe Ryan" to "Joe Ryan's Injury" takes care of most of the pushback on this one.

Elsewhere at the site we see occasional errors get corrected in the comments, the author acknowledges the mistake, but the text remains unchanged.  I know publishing gets done on a deadline, but it sure would be nice if flat-out errors could be corrected.

[RaoulDuke]

They should have sold him with everything else last dead line.

 It would have been another, if not the major kick in the nuts for fans but if they are not going to pay a player when they reach free agency they need to capitalize on them in a trade.

Ryan at his best is not an ace.  He is a fine 2 but would be best as a 3 in a contending playoff rotation.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, Linus said:

It’s a mutual option which usually don’t end up happening. 

OK, I get the mutual option………He’s an All-Star …… but hurt for 4th straight year in 2nd half……..solid ERA for sure……….unless he rebounds considerably in next few weeks, I don’t think he gets much more than $13M via arbitration. Who knows how the new CBA may change things though?

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

Is it impossible to edit a headline (or article content, for that matter)?  Simply changing "Joe Ryan" to "Joe Ryan's Injury" takes care of most of the pushback on this one.

Elsewhere at the site we see occasional errors get corrected in the comments, the author acknowledges the mistake, but the text remains unchanged.  I know publishing gets done on a deadline, but it sure would be nice if flat-out errors could be corrected.

Seriously?

Do you want to go back 8 hours and edit your comment?

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

Love a strong post.  But I do disagree.  I think JR is a good guy, a 3/4 on a good team.  Zero more, and that's awesome.  I'd take it.  But he is not an ace, surely not for 20 starts a year.  I'm glad we have him but the article is spot on

He’s certainly frustrating since he just doesn’t hold up! He is a back to back All-Star though …… not many of those guys as a 3 or 4 on any staff.

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Isn’t ‘27 his last year of Team control? He’s signed through ‘27 at $13M …….. for what I thought was his last year….. - right?

He has a mutual option. Either Ryan or the Twins can opt out. Ryan is 100% going to opt out after the Skubal decision... unless he continues to have a terrible 2nd half.

[Wedman13]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

He’s certainly frustrating since he just doesn’t hold up! He is a back to back All-Star though …… not many of those guys as a 3 or 4 on any staff.

Fair.  I was too harsh but we need him.  It's not his Pablo's...., bucks.... fault.  If you are hurt you are.