Tom Pohlad Promised He Wasn't a "Half Measures" Guy. This Trade Deadline Proved It.

[jmlease1]

34 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Just to make sure we are talking about the same guy you are comparing Dasan Hill to Chris Vallimont who went to Mercyhurst was drafted in the 5th round and we got as PTBNL from Marlins for Diaz?  The same Vallimont that generally has a 9,7K per a 9 in the minors and was never a top 100 prospect.  

The most likely outcome - being that he is 6'5" and only 20 that he will gain more control of those limbs and the walks will come down.   My comparison is a more refined Brody Brecht 6'4" that is 3 years older.   Similar K/9 numbers and both high walk numbers.  Both picked in same draft - Brecht 38 and Hill 69.   Both have a high risk of becoming relievers.  I think Dasan will always be a higher walk pitcher, but I also think he lost some confidence this year.   Baltimore likes to take these high octane arms and they convert several.  Especially for the bullpen.   Maybe he flounders,  but my guess is he starts turning a corner which the last start may have been (zero walks)  gains confidence and repeats at high A before going to AA and the lefty high octane arm will still be on track. 

I'm not comparing them as prospects; Hill is obviously much more highly regarded. But it's important to understand when looking at his video game numbers that they aren't necessarily predictive. 

I think Hill has a ton of talent and a thunderbolt for a left arm, but he's going to struggle until he can find the zone consistently. One game before the trade deadline doesn't mean much; he was awesome on May 16th too, and then proceeded to walk 14 guys in his next 4 starts over 8 1/3 innings.

Hill is still quite young, and maybe his new team will do better in fixing his control. But he's a long ways away, and it's better than even odds that he doesn't make AA next season.

[laloesch]

6 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Not trading Jeffers was ludicrous. I wonder if we could’ve got just that one top RHer prospect from the BoSox.  That would have been a great deal.

Wait and see - we will get nothing for Ryan either.

The Twins actions at the deadline have not substantively moved the dial on competing this year, while missing the opportunity to substantively improve the franchise in the future.

Sorry, but this year’s deadline only proved that Tom P played the political game with the media and fans.  His illusion of aggressiveness has pacified many TDers, but did not contribute to the goal of creating a WS champion.

I agree.  Getting nothing for Jeffers was a huge waste.  The Twins aren't going to pay him and I doubt he signs an extension for what he's expecting.  This team may not even make the playoffs either.  Considering the Rays and Red Sox made trades for catchers so close to the deadline and the Yankees didn't really get anything decent either for that position makes me believe the Twins had an astronomical unrealistic price.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

9 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm not comparing them as prospects; Hill is obviously much more highly regarded. But it's important to understand when looking at his video game numbers that they aren't necessarily predictive. 

I think Hill has a ton of talent and a thunderbolt for a left arm, but he's going to struggle until he can find the zone consistently. One game before the trade deadline doesn't mean much; he was awesome on May 16th too, and then proceeded to walk 14 guys in his next 4 starts over 8 1/3 innings.

Hill is still quite young, and maybe his new team will do better in fixing his control. But he's a long ways away, and it's better than even odds that he doesn't make AA next season.

It sure seemed like you were comparing them as prospects.  Most long limbed fireball pitchers struggle with Command.  Randy Johnson average over 6BB/9 until he was 28.   Yes Randy isn't the norm,  but this isn't something that has never happened before either.  His walks jumped this year.   Ok - but this isn't a death nail for his career which is what you appear to be doing.  His value has gone from an excess value of over 20 to 8.  Having a prospect retest a level isn't the worst thing.  I understand your concern but the upside is still immense and he has pretty good chance at meeting it.    I would also venture he does go to AA next year.   

[laloesch]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The only legitimate reason Gausman is not on the roster is because the Pohlads didn't want to spend.

And that in and of itself tells you this team has no intention of signing Joe Ryan or Ryan Jeffers to extensions.  They SHOULD have traded both of them this deadline and gotten the prospects now instead of letting them walk (Jeffers first this offseason and Ryan the next).  I'm not impressed.  They only did these moves to boost ticket sales to give fans a hope for a 1 and done playoff run this fall.  I really wish the Pohlads would have sold.  Tired of this nonsense.  

[Western SD Fan]

Multiple things can be true at the same time.  Of course, Tom's statements at the beginning of the season were designed to create interest in a team that many fans have quit paying attention to.  It ultimately depends on how you are measuring and your expectations for the season. 

If you're measuring against a normal MLB GM trying to address needs to make a serious playoff push, this deadline was a clear half-measure.  If you are measuring this against what other Twins GM's and current ownership have done since the year 2000, this is about as "all-in" as the Twins get.  That is more indicative of how the Twins operate as a whole.

Now to the expectations part.  If your expectations were to make a real push for a WS or a deep playoff run, this was just a half-measure and likely not moving the needle other than the relievers will help us not lose winnable games in the late innings.  I'm not concerned on what we gave up for Kremer.  I'm more concerned about Kremer himself as a pitcher being able to meaningfully contribute.  I'm not sure he is any better than Zebby, who's spot he replaced in the rotation, and who many people here want converted to a bullpen arm.

My expectations were to make moves to keep us in contention while not selling the farm for a marginal chance at a playoff spot.  I think we accomplished that with this deadline.  Compared to where many people pegged this team at the beginning of the season, we are close to playing with house money at this point.  Sometimes it's about staying the course, even if we don't know what the course is at times.  We could have maximized some trade potential, such as moving Jeffers and Larnach, I am fine that we did not do this.  That is probably the fan in me vs what the correct move would have been to make.  

Look up Tankathon's SOS linked here: MLB Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon  Compare this to the WC standings.  Most of the teams that are near, or chasing us, have weaker SOS than us the rest of the season.  That doesn't mean we can't make it.  It's just another tool to use when aligning your expectations on how the deadline went and how it aligns with Tom Pohlad's statements.  

[bean5302]

30 minutes ago, laloesch said:

And that in and of itself tells you this team has no intention of signing Joe Ryan or Ryan Jeffers to extensions...

Good.

I think I share your sentiment that the team didn't go nearly big enough. It's too close to standing pat and I don't have confidence the team is playoff competitive. I think we probably have to sit back and make the call on things now when the Twins get eliminated.

[StiltedGopher]

Tom, is that you?

[HarmonK03]

9 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

what's the plan here?

Until they purge this front office starting with Zoll, I don't think we will see one.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

I agree.  Getting nothing for Jeffers was a huge waste.  The Twins aren't going to pay him and I doubt he signs an extension for what he's expecting.  This team may not even make the playoffs either.  Considering the Rays and Red Sox made trades for catchers so close to the deadline and the Yankees didn't really get anything decent either for that position makes me believe the Twins had an astronomical unrealistic price.

Given what Boston gave up, it seems plausible they could have gotten Eyanson straight-up.  If they passed on Eyanson, that would be disappointing.  

[Jacksson]

Typical posturing by a Pohlad organization to make middling player moves while addling a minimal amount of payroll expense and characterizing that as "going big".  While NAME starters who were established difference makers ended up elsewhere, we got Dean Kremer.  We added two Middle Of the Road relievers, who should have been added this past off season to help the team jump out of the gate as opposed to watching as leads became losses due to a failed assortment of DFA level relievers. We now have an established closer, who was once our property before we let him slip through our fingers, who spent the early part of the season igniting fires rather than being a fireman.

Meanwhile, Jeffers is still a Twin, Larnach is still a Twin, Ryan is still a Twin, Buxton is still a Twin (and on the injured list once again), Bell is still a Twin, Wallner is still a Twin, Travis Adams is still on the 26 man roster, Tristen Gray is still on the 26 man roster and rotating into the line-up playing SS, the team is still carrying 3 Catchers on the 26 man roster, despite the freefall of his batting average, Martin is still on the 26 man roster, and so is Roden. 

Since the beginning of the season: our 1B is now the DH, our other 1B is now 2B & RF, our 2B is now CF & RF, our SS in now 3B, our back up SS & CF is now at SS, our 3B is now 1B, our RF is buried in the minors and seems to be on a path out of the organization, our CF is on the injured list for the THIRD TIME this season (so far) and as for pitchers we have 6 on the 60 day IL.

Seems like the s****y stewardship of ownership requires the use of TP!  

[IndianaTwin]

The thing about the trade deadline I haven’t heard about yet is how the team liked the movie Monday afternoon. 

[Mike Sixel]

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

An article I would find interesting in assessing the "go big-ness" of Tom Pohlad/the Twins this deadline is comparing them to the teams they're fighting against for the division and wild card spots.

I'd argue Boston (maybe they shouldn't be included with how hot they've been?), Chicago, Cleveland, and Seattle improved their teams more than the Twins did. Texas and Houston did about the same as the Twins.

Is it really "going big" when 2/3 of your competition (including the 2 teams above you in the division) went "bigger?"

Truth. This wasn't going big at all. 

I'm convinced the OP is paid by the pohlad family at this point. 

[Woof Bronzer]

46 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Truth. This wasn't going big at all. 

I'm convinced the OP is paid by the pohlad family at this point. 

Fangraphs playoff odds on August 2: 32.9%

Fangraphs playoff odds on August 4: 29.2%

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Woof Bronzer said:

Fangraphs playoff odds on August 2: 32.9%

Fangraphs playoff odds on August 4: 29.2%

So you're saying there's a chance. 

Other teams did more. It's that simple.

[TheLeviathan]

Do these moves feel forceful and decisive?  2022 felt decisive and forceful.  This felt....fine.

Isn't that what a half-measure is?  Why are we falling all over ourselves to be happy with this?

Here's the thing: there are a bunch of people telling us they are happy we didn't sell because it sends the right message.  It's cool to think that.  Why do we have to pretend it's anything more than that?  This is a half measure.  It's not some ground-breaking investment.  It just wasn't selling.  That's it.

The most forceful thing about this deadline is the folks here who want to heap praise on these actions.

[ashbury]

23 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Do these moves feel forceful and decisive?  2022 felt decisive and forceful.  This felt....fine.

This is going big.

[Vanimal46]

@Matthew Taylorare you ready to change your profile pic on X from Sell to a pro Tom Pohlad pic? As well as changing your bio from sell the team to founder of the Church of Tom Pohlad?

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, chinmusic said:

Additionally, although many think that not trading key contributors is foolish (Jeffers, Larnach, etc) it's also symbolic of a proactive approach. As for offensive reinforcement, it seems like a no brainer Jenkins will be called up shortly.

Both Jenkins & Culpepper had big nights on Tuesday! Both of them for Roden & Gray seems to be another needed step!

The strike is fair but seems to promote the, “we did what we said we would do at the deadline……..” our offense has scored most runs in A.L. to date………rationalization from Organization.

There’s a big difference between pursuing Skubal as a rental & Robbie Ray or even lower tier, Dustin May.

I think the staff (if Joe comes around???) is close enough to get into the mix in September………. offense (minus Buxton) no chance.

Spending for guys & “taking on their contracts” also comes with better player performance, that’s how it works. $106M going into the year is not a “go big or go home” guy?

Luis Arraez ….. 2 hits in debut in Philly ……. batting FOURTH. His career average w/RISP is .352 …….. this year he’s hitting .382. Would have been perfect shot in the arm — brining former Twin back……..outside of 2 Catchers just drafted and Jenkins, Culpepper & Houston….. do not care what 1 or 2 top 20 guys of Twins had to go……. that’s go big or go home mentality.

[chinmusic]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

“we did what we said we would do at the deadline……..”

Yes, I 'd prefer Pohlad hadn't said that. Oh, well.

If you listen to broadcasters from different cities on both sides of a trade, rationalization and different spin on the same player runs rampant. As you can imagine, here in Toronto Jeff Hoffman is a lightning rod for controversy. Let's hope he becomes the Twins next Louis Varland. (tongue firmly implanted in cheek)

Want to mention, I did not particularly want Arraez back. The Twins need all the defense they can get. How much can his fielding have improved all of a sudden after all these years? I'm a bit skeptical.  That said, an offensive spark can't happen soon enough. Last night was sad. I think maybe they were trying a little too hard. The Royals are loose, and they have the big guy back.

Let's see what happens tonight.