Hunter Greene Is Worth Hunting. Here's What It Would Cost

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

If Greene didn't have risks associated with him, you'd have to look at Chris Sale trade.

#1 overall MLB prospect. 
#30 overall MLB prospect.
#8 org in probably the best farm system in baseball.
fast rising swing start/reliever

Equivalent for Twins
Vahn Lackey
Walker Jenkins
Dasan Hill
Adrian Bohorquez

This is what I suggested on when it was reported to be a coin flip on acquiring him. I have no problem giving up Emma Rodriguez or Tait, Hill or Quick, and another top 15 prospect to make it happen. If it takes another prospect sure. They can’t trade Lackey. 

Greene does carry some risk with his injury history. So the Chris Sale trade doesn’t hold much weight. 

[TheLeviathan]

I like him, I think the proposed deal is reasonable for him, but I imagine the Reds wait to move him.  He's not exactly pitching well and this seems like a low point in value.

I'd definitely call them up though and see if that offer works.

[Hunter4848]

6 hours ago, arby58 said:

In 2023 the Twins may not have made the play-offs or had their Wild Card series win over Toronto without Lewis. The Twins were 27-26 when he was called up, and promptly went 2 for 5 with 4 RBIs in a 7-5 win at Houston. Lewis hit 15 HRs in 217 ABs, including 4 grand slams, and the Twins finished the season 12 games over .500.

Wow, one playoff series win... What a pathetic bar thos franchise has

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Hunter4848 said:

Wow, one playoff series win... What a pathetic bar thos franchise has

 

1 hour ago, Hunter4848 said:

Wow, one playoff series win... What a pathetic bar thos franchise has

How many have the Reds won with Greene?

[Hunter4848]

57 minutes ago, arby58 said:

 

How many have the Reds won with Greene?

Who cares about the Reds? Can you really tell me you rather have Royce Lewis?!

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

Who cares about the Reds? Can you really tell me you rather have Royce Lewis?!

In a one for one deal, Greene is the much better side. 

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, laloesch said:

Wouldn’t the Twins love to have that draft pick back so the could have taken Hunter Greene instead.

 

Twins fan in Cincinnati - he’s like having Emma on the Red’s staff, relative to health. that frustrating!

Twins are good going forward with Abel - Festa - Sands coming back (any ONE would be a plus) ……… Rojas - Prielipp - Matthews - Ober …… Lopez - Bradley - Ryan.  IMO, less assets out for a rental like RAY or MAY or MIZE - etc. would be a better move for ‘26. Can shift Kremer or Prielipp to PEN if they land a starter…… along w/Matthews.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

 

How many have the Reds won with Greene?

Thumbs up on that comment, from me in Cincinnati!

[arby58]

23 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

Who cares about the Reds? Can you really tell me you rather have Royce Lewis?!

You didn’t answer the question because the answer is none. 2023 was a great season  for the Twins - and that year Greene was 4-7 with a 4.82 ERA. So focused on 2026? Greene has a -0.4 WAR. For all Royce’s struggle this year, at least his is positive at 0.8.

[arby58]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

In a one for one deal, Greene is the much better side. 

We’re not talking about a one for one trade, this guy wants to redo the draft from eons ago. Who cares? I know as a Twins fan I cared about 2023, and Lewis was key to their success that year. Besides, Greene is negative WAR this year - really sure he’s not just injury toast?

[Hunter4848]

4 minutes ago, arby58 said:

You didn’t answer the question because the answer is none. 2023 was a great season  for the Twins - and that year Greene was 4-7 with a 4.82 ERA. So focused on 2026? Greene has a -0.4 WAR. For all Royce’s struggle this year, at least his is positive at 0.8.

I am so glad we traded one playoff series win for years of a good starting pircher... Meanwhile we have Lewis who had to be sent to the minors this year because he was so bad. Twins fans are so mired in losing that they treasure making it out of the first round. It's absolutely pathetic 

[jkcarew]

I like it with a much lower-level prospect swapped for Culpepper….and only if the half season that Greene will miss is the same half of the season that Buxton plays.

[arby58]

Just now, Hunter4848 said:

I am so glad we traded one playoff series win for years of a good starting pircher... Meanwhile we have Lewis who had to be sent to the minors this year because he was so bad. Twins fans are so mired in losing that they treasure making it out of the first round. It's absolutely pathetic 

 

Just now, Hunter4848 said:

I am so glad we traded one playoff series win for years of a good starting pircher... Meanwhile we have Lewis who had to be sent to the minors this year because he was so bad. Twins fans are so mired in losing that they treasure making it out of the first round. It's absolutely pathetic 

He’s negative WAR this year and you make him out to be a dominant pitcher. Statistic  much?

[Hunter4848]

Just now, arby58 said:

 

He’s negative WAR this year and you make him out to be a dominant pitcher. Statistic  much?

And still a better player than Lewis. But hey you treasure that one playoff win like a World Series victory...

[Wedman13]

On 8/2/2026 at 12:35 PM, arby58 said:

In 2023 the Twins may not have made the play-offs or had their Wild Card series win over Toronto without Lewis. The Twins were 27-26 when he was called up, and promptly went 2 for 5 with 4 RBIs in a 7-5 win at Houston. Lewis hit 15 HRs in 217 ABs, including 4 grand slams, and the Twins finished the season 12 games over .500.

This is 100% correct and why arm chair fans suck.  Sorry.... Royce is a good player not great.   .  He was one of 5 guys teams considered #1.  Should we have drafted Brendan Mcay or whatever his name was?  The new Ohtani, that's now pumping gas somewhere?

 I hate cynicism 

 

[Doc Munson]

Nice article, I had a similar post a few days ago, but much better said here.  I would only make the comment that I think we could get him without giving up our top prospects. Include a team like the Yankees who may be willing to overspend for someone like Jeffers. We send Jeffers to NY,  and we include the lower prospects like Diaw and have the Yankees send over the top 100 prospects.

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

This is what I suggested on when it was reported to be a coin flip on acquiring him. I have no problem giving up Emma Rodriguez or Tait, Hill or Quick, and another top 15 prospect to make it happen. If it takes another prospect sure. They can’t trade Lackey. 

Greene does carry some risk with his injury history. So the Chris Sale trade doesn’t hold much weight. 

Did you read my post? Oh, you didn't. Okay. Just making sure. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's fair for me to pay 2 million for a great house in an expensive city, doesn't mean I should. 

I hear that. I like Hunter Green as a possibility, but not at the price of two of our top 10 prospects. Maybe for 1 top 5-10 guy plus a couple farther down the list, but I just don't think that's going to be enough so he's probably a pipe dream. Unfortunately, Emma now has residual soreness in his thumb so this is yet another year wasted for him and he now has basically zero trade value. I don't really see anybody else in our top 10 that I would trade unless we were getting a frontline starting pitcher with multiple years of remaining control like Reid Detmers.

I'm expecting one more trade for a good but not elite relief pitcher and maaaybe a prospect for rental starting pitcher kind of trade, although the latter might be my pipe dream. Most likely we either trade a prospect in the 15 – 30 range for a solid relief pitcher on expiring contract or trade someone like Larnach for that same guy with one year of control left. And hey, I think you have to count the Nance trade as a deadline deal so a deadline of trading for three relief pitchers without giving up anyone in your top 20 prospects is actually not such a bad deadline.

[killercarewoliva]

23 hours ago, TL said:

I’m not sure who’d I’d rather give up - Houston or Culpepper - but if the Twins believe Houston’s breakout is real then you can absolutely do this trade. It would hurt for sure, but a parade would help heal those wounds!

you have to give up something to get something. so if one team needs pitching the other team needs outfield. it helps both teams but to get a guy like green it's going to have to be a good piece of outfield. Culpeper is not hitting major league level averages in AAA. I understand he's a above average fielder but Houston. why isn't he in AAA look at his average that young man can hit and he can field like the best of them. I think he's way ahead of Culpeper but that's just me. Houston is untouchable. Culpeper is not, although he's a great player. you get to bring of three people come September 1st. I'd go ahead and do it. give Houston a chance. well everybody we can see I'm really high on Houston.

[USAFChief]

So, ask yourself, "Why would Cincinnati be interested in trading Hunter Greene?"

Hard Pass. 

And I'm a guy who thinks prospects are the most overvalued thing in baseball. 

[laloesch]

14 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

I am so glad we traded one playoff series win for years of a good starting pircher... Meanwhile we have Lewis who had to be sent to the minors this year because he was so bad. Twins fans are so mired in losing that they treasure making it out of the first round. It's absolutely pathetic 

No argument here.  I think your spot on.  I'd take Greene any day of the week and twice on Sunday over Lewis at this point.  Lewis is still not doing all that great.  Certainly, better since being called back up but not great.  I look at the season as a collective whole not cherry picking stats from hot stretches, which is what the homers are doing.  Overall, he's done very poorly AGAIN.  Now if he finishes the year strong and raises that BA and OBP back up to a reasonable level I'll amend that, but the slow starts are just brutal.  And in 2024 and 2025 he was just awful.

[laloesch]

14 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

 Sorry.p...  Royce is a good player or great.   .  

 

Is this sarcasm? Honest question.  I don't see how ANYONE can think "Royce is a good player or great."  Sure he was good in 2023 for 58 games, but he's been mediocre to terrible at best since then.

[Bodie]

150 IP as a career high, but will take front-of-the-rotation package to get him.  HUGE injury risk based on his history. 

Intriguing, but not worth it.

And a moot point now, anyway!

[Mike Sixel]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/08/reds-hunter-greene-injured-list-elbow.html

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/08/reds-hunter-greene-injured-list-elbow.html

 

Just saw this now. Must be why he wasn’t traded or why the Reds didn’t move him to be honest. Could be he never gets back to what he was.

Plus with Skenes starting to look more human. Makes me think max effort all the time for the best pitchers in the world can’t last forever. We will see.

[TheLeviathan]

Good thing it was an elbow!  Everyone knows we like our damaged goods relating to shoulders.

[ashbury]

I skipped this thread when it first came out, but activity on it tonight caught my eye.  I'm trying REALLY hard not to second-guess now that we have this follow-up news.  But I want to say a couple of things.

Someone brought up Buxton in this discussion, and Greene's remaining contract indeed resembles Buxton's.  Moderately priced for a guy who (in their respective ways) can carry a team, "when healthy."

The thing with Buxton, though, is that we signed him to the contract without having to give up any prospect capital.  I mean, well, as a #2 overall pick, that represents prospect capital in a way.  But far from the same.  With Greene, we'd have to cover a rather similar contract, but also give up a haul of prospects.  If I were a fan of another team, even if I like Buxton "in a vacuum" I'd be hard pressed to advocate to my team's FO that they give up a lot to get Byron.

Huh.  Aside from 10/5 trade protection, a hypothetical Buxton-Greene swap straight up would be a fun "challenge trade."

The other thing that came to mind: it's fascinating to see posters' varying approaches to risk.  Again, I say that as neutrally as I can, given recent news colors everyone's views about Greene.  Risk (health is not the only one) lurks in every discussion of talent evaluation.  For on the field performance we can look at measures such as RBIs or OPS or WAR - use them or dismiss them to our own tastes - but I can't think of anything remotely similar when it comes to judging risk.  I got to chat for five minutes the other day with the Guardians' chief of analytics Keith Woolner (a very humble and engaging man), and he claimed to have no handle on this topic - perhaps he has a good poker face, perhaps he was being candid as he seemed about other topics during his panel discussion that morning at SABR.