You’re not a GM. You Shouldn’t Want to Trade Ryan Jeffers.

[IndianaTwin]

48 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He caught IN 88, 86, 82, and 84 games those years. He didn't catch 88,86, 82, or 84 games. You can feel free to count games where he caught an inning or 2, but I don't.

And you could make an argument that they mismanaged him during those time share seasons if you'd like, but you'll find a bunch of people on here who will point out that he faded down the stretch in every one of them despite the time share. As I said in a subsequent post, I'd certainly bet on him over Caratini when it comes to their chances of being an everyday catcher, but the other poster pointed to Caratini's lack of more than 87 games caught as proof he wasn't a good bet. Age 30 Jeffers isn't a great bet either is all I'm saying. Being "on target" for 120 games doesn't impress me. We have no idea what he would look like over the stretch of the entire season at that pace. He doesn't get the benefit of the doubt from me based on his previous track record of not doing it.

Oh, it is definitely rare. But that's because most of the time you're trading someone it's because you already know you won't pay the player what they're asking. It's a naturally biased data set.

I'd much rather have Jeffers for the next 3 or 4 years than piece things together beyond Caratini and Jackson. But, I believe, if Jeffers and the Twins were on the same page for a contract he'd already be signed.

Fair responses all.

I don't know that I'd argue they mismanaged him (at least not substantially) in the past, even when they had Vazquez as the other. I would have liked to see them tilt a bit more to Jeffers. Rather than essentially 80/80 between the two catchers, I'd have preferred something more like 90/70 or even 100/60. For example, I would have liked them to use the off day as a boost to tilt the games toward Jeffers. In other words, by playing him every other calendar day rather than than every other game, that would probably gotten them closer to the 90/70. Going into this season, I was actually hoping for something like a 108/54 split, with Jeffers playing two of every three.

Also to note, Jeffers hasn't tailed off that much in the second half. His career OPS numbers are .762 and .742 before and after the break, so a modest decline, but I don't know how much difference makes it statistically significant. Last year helped in bringing those numbers together. He hit better in the second half -- .769 to .742. In 2023, he hit MUCH better after the break (.778 to .928).

In 2024, the decline was so large I have to wonder if there was injury or something at play, but in two of the three last three years he's actually hit better in the second half. I thought I read that his not wearing down last year was a factor in them planning to move away from the 80/80 to something that seems like it was at least intended to something like 110-120 starts.  

[chpettit19]

41 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

@chpettit19, this comment may actually be better for another post, since it's not really Jeffers-specific, but it sorta is, so I'll put it here. 

I've been smackdab with you on a lot of your posts, but you've had several where you've named a preference for trading both Jeffers and Ryan under the premise that 2027 doesn't seem promising. I'm curious on your thought process on that. (And to show my bias, I lean toward keeping Jeffers for reasons that are mostly beyond this post, but am really interested in keeping Ryan, believing that 2027 actually does shape up well.)

I start from the premise of saying the Twins were 26-28 through the first third. They will be either 28-26 or 27-27 for the second third after Tuesday's game. I'd love to see them go on a run, but if they match those, they will be essentially an 81-win team. 

I'm not sure your definition of competitive, but in one of the strands, people (I don't remember if it was you) were using something like 90 wins. Is that a fair take for this exercise?

So as I think about whether the Twins can nine games better next year, it seems pretty feasible. 

Lopez is an add, so a rotation would start with Lopez/Ryan/Bradley. Particularly when you consider that Bradley starts the year with a strong season under his belt, adding Lopez makes that trio a much better front half of the rotation than they've had this year. Then, when you consider some level of success from Matthews, Prielipp, the snippet from Abel, maybe even Rojas if they decide to/need to keep him as a starter, and that all of these guys are younger than average and would be a year more experienced, it feels like the back end of the rotation should also be stronger than it has been this year. This doesn't take into account that Lopez's injury has made Ober the de facto No. 3 starter this year, whereas a Lopez return slides Ober to No. 4 at best. 

In the bullpen, much has been written about how bad/inexperienced they were at the beginning of the year. In a bunch of articles, I've applauded their approach of churning through bodies this year. I've had a hope that they will essentially identify one body per month that they can pencil in as an expected contributor for next year. So far, I've got Gomez, Morris, I would say Banda and Rojas if they go the pen route with him. Funderburk hasn't been up all year, Sands just came back and the first couple outings from Nance have looked promising. There's two more months left. If they can get another two to "count on status" and enter the offseason with as many as six solid relievers, that's a far cry from entering the season with what we did this year. 

I'm not going to go through the offense position by position, but it seems the net is that it would be better next year, even with just the internal folks. Buxton is the only real stud and returns. I keep thinking that Clemens is going to turn into a pumpkin, but the dadgum guy keeps performing. The current Lee at 3B seems substantially better than the Lee that started the year at SS. The current Lewis at 1b seems substantially better than the Lewis who started the year at 3B. It feels like I could make similar statements about others. And then it seems likely (or at least very feasible) that somewhere between Jenkins, Culpepper and others there will be some level of addition from rookies. The sum of the parts seems better than what the sum of the parts has been this year. And that's using a current offense that's somehow the AL leader in runs scored, so it's not starting from a bad spot.

A note on losses. At this point, I see Bell as the only known loss among contributors on the offensive side of the ball. I'm putting an asterisk on Jeffers. I think it's at least 80 percent that he's gone, but my personal preference is to hang on to Jeffers through the deadline and offer him a QO. I don't think he would take it, because I think he'll easily get at least 3/$60M or 4/$72M. But if he does take it, I don't feel bad about what might be a slight overpay on a one-year deal and they'd enter the offseason in a good spot.

As I said, I think it's most likely Jeffers is gone, so for the sake of this conversation, let's assume that. But I think Bell is easily replaceable internally, so losing Jeffers would leave catcher as the only known setback among the positions.

I think that even with no moves, there would be an improvement over this year's 81 wins. Enough to get to 90? I'm not sure, but perhaps.

You've said, "as currently constructed," so let's leave it there. But it seems like that's a roster that doesn't have huge holes to fill. Even with six or so knowns in the bullpen, I'd love to see additions there. I don't have a specific position in mind, but I'd love to see them add a bat that they could count on being the level of this year's Larnach.

Tom Pohlad has again made comments about spending and wanting to be competitive. I commented in another post yesterday that while much of TD is going to discount (or ignore or disparage) anything he says, I take him at least somewhat at his word. He's been smart enough to say the right things in terms of PR regarding recognizing the frustration of fans, yadda, yadda. I think he's smart enough to know that making the kind of statements he's made recently and then not following through would be an even bigger PR disaster than he inherited. 

So again, I've really liked your posts, but I've been curious on where you see things differently.   

        

I don't have huge disagreements with this. It's all matters of degree. 

90 wins is as good a mark as any for a goal in being actually competitive. 

With those 2 things in mind, here's where I'm at on some things.

Starting Pitching:
Lopez. I don't trust going into a season with a guy coming off TJ and counting on them to just be themselves from the jump. I'd give Lopez about as good a chance as anyone based on the things we know about him from the outside, but he'll be 31 next year and the body does what it does. I love him, and would actually like to see them try to turn this TJ surgery into a cheapish extension for another couple years with him. Taj clearly has an incredible ceiling, but he was available last year for a reason. Consistency. I am happy to have him but not sold on his consistency yet. But do feel better about it now than at the start of the year. Ober is doing a heck of a job smoke and mirroring his way through things right now. Guys who rely on that tend to fall off cliffs in an instant. Prielipp, Rojas, Abel are all very exciting pieces. I watched Abel throw a pen in spring and I have no idea how he doesn't dominate every time out. Ball explodes out of his hand. I actually really like the rotation with or without Ryan. But expect there to be some ups and downs with the young guys.

Bullpen:
So unpredictable. Sands was a "trusted" late inning guy going into 2025 because of 2024, and couldn't hold that. Can Gomez, who has been around the block a time or 2, and Morris, who is very new to the role? I hope so, but I don't trust relievers until they've done it for 2 or 3 years. Just such a variable position. Will definitely feel better going into next year than this year, but I never trust a pen.

Lineup:
I don't trust rookies to come up and be consistently good right away. That is a large part of my view on things. If 2 or 3 of Jenkins, Culpepper, Emma, Mendez, Gabby, etc. come up and explode next year the team is going to likely be better than this year whether they have Ryan and Jeffers or not. I don't trust Larnach, Lee, Clemens, Kreidler, etc. types. Clemens has definitely made me eat crow this year, and it's probably me being more stubborn than I should be, but I just don't trust him to sustain. Hope he keeps making me look foolish. But the offense as a whole has produced significantly better with RISP than their normal stat lines. That isn't sustainable. And I think we've seen a lot of that since the break. Outside of 2 games, this team has really struggled to score. If the youth come up and pull a Wallner, Lewis, Julien from a few years ago, those other guys dipping won't matter. But I don't like predicting great, sustained, consistent success from rookies from the jump. It's why I wanted, and still want, them to all get a lot of experience this year to be able to be more consistent next year.

To sum it all up, I think the keys to next year being successful are the young guys, and if they all do well, it doesn't matter if we have Ryan and Jeffers or not. If they all fail, it doesn't matter if we have Ryan and Jeffers or not. The level the new guys will have to perform at for them to be a 90+ win team are higher than I expect, so I'd prefer to use it as a transition year (which I wanted this year to be more of) and add more possible pieces to the puzzle for 2028 and beyond to help their chances of building a sustainable winner. All that is also why I don't mind if they get A+ type top prospects for Ryan and Jeffers. I want sustainable and the guys already in the org are already the key to opening the window in the first place. Adding to the next wave is important, too.

I probably come across harsher than I mean about 2027. .500ish feels like a reasonable goal for next year. 90 wins is more optimistic than I can get to. And it feels like the difference between our thoughts are probably minor and mostly about the level of faith we each have in certain outcomes.

[mluebker]

Don’t trade Jeffers, don’t trade Ryan. Keep the current guys together.
 

Maybe tinker around the edges to fill what holes they can, bring up the most deserving from St. Paul, and make us believe they really want to field a competitive team, and actually make the playoffs. 

2027 looks like it’s going to be a lost season anyway, while the owners and players association fight their way to a new CBA.
 

So let’s have some fun while we can. Let’s see what these current guys can do. Heck, maybe some of them still could be around in 2028 when that “young core” we keep hearing about are ready to go. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Starting Pitching:
Lopez. I don't trust going into a season with a guy coming off TJ and counting on them to just be themselves from the jump. I'd give Lopez about as good a chance as anyone based on the things we know about him from the outside, but he'll be 31 next year and the body does what it does. I love him, and would actually like to see them try to turn this TJ surgery into a cheapish extension for another couple years with him...

Thanks. Makes sense throughout. Because I'm optimistic enough about some of the pieces for 2027, Ryan seems like an essential enough piece in the whole that I don't like the thought of opening that hole. With Lopez coming back from injury and the youth of Bradley, I don't want to just add one (or even two) to the Prielipp/Abel/Rojas group in a trade of Ryan -- I'd like to know going in (as much as one ever can know) that I've 30-32 starts covered with Ryan. 

 

I tend to view TJ guys similarly and posted something similar to this on Lopez. Someone pointed out that he had "only" the internal brace procedure rather than the full TJS ligament reconstruction, which apparently does shorten the recovery time somewhat. I've not heard anything about recovery and whether he's on track, early or behind. Probably too early to tell.

Ditto on extension. I made a comment elsewhere that in my mind, simply adding a year to his contract at a similar salary feels like a no-brainer for both sides. No long-term commitment for the Twins, a second year to prove he's definitely back for Lopez as heads to free agency as a 32 YO, hopefully with a shot at getting another four years or so from someone. I also like that it would take his leaving off the same calendar as Ryan's.   

[mluebker]

I see it rankled some people, but the original poster is right—most of us here are more interested in how the front office might add or subtract from the roster to improve the team, than we are what happens on the field. 
 

While the latter is kind of the required reading to formulate informed opinions about the former, playing GM has become pretty much the default among fans. With so many more ways to analyze players and games, the business of baseball seems to have become more interesting than the games themselves.  
 

I’m not saying that’s a bad thing, it’s just different. What actually provides the entertainment seems to be second-guessing the front office and owners, not so much listening to the games, maybe second-guessing the manager, and hoping against hope that they win. At least if you go by what gets talked about here every day. 

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Thanks. Makes sense throughout. Because I'm optimistic enough about some of the pieces for 2027, Ryan seems like an essential enough piece in the whole that I don't like the thought of opening that hole. With Lopez coming back from injury and the youth of Bradley, I don't want to just add one (or even two) to the Prielipp/Abel/Rojas group in a trade of Ryan -- I'd like to know going in (as much as one ever can know) that I've 30-32 starts covered with Ryan. 

 

I tend to view TJ guys similarly and posted something similar to this on Lopez. Someone pointed out that he had "only" the internal brace procedure rather than the full TJS ligament reconstruction, which apparently does shorten the recovery time somewhat. I've not heard anything about recovery and whether he's on track, early or behind. Probably too early to tell.

Ditto on extension. I made a comment elsewhere that in my mind, simply adding a year to his contract at a similar salary feels like a no-brainer for both sides. No long-term commitment for the Twins, a second year to prove he's definitely back for Lopez as heads to free agency as a 32 YO, hopefully with a shot at getting another four years or so from someone. I also like that it would take his leaving off the same calendar as Ryan's.   

No problem whatsoever on that stance. I have no problem with people wanting to keep Ryan or Jeffers. I just disagree. And disagreeing and debating is what brings me back to TD.

[dxpavelka]

You don't get better if your best player(s) are playing for other teams.  You also seldom win deals in which the best team in the deal ends up playing for a different team.  This can be a little less true in baseball than other sports but still, more often than not it's true.  Sure there will be the occasional Jeff Bagwell / Larry Anderson trade.  Or the Doyle Alexander  / John Smoltz deal.  But, on the other hand, anyone remember the return the Twins got for Rod Carew?  

[amjgt]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The odds of the Twins making the playoffs are not good. The odds of them having home playoff games are even worse. Like really, really low kind of worse. The wildcard round is all played at the higher seed's stadium. The Twins would have to jump a whole lot of teams during the season or win 2 or 3 on the road in the first round to get a home playoff game.

Currently the White Sox have a 1st round bye. So I guess technically we’re only 3.5 games back of a 1st round bye. We only need to jump the Gaurdians and White Sox to pull that off.