Week in Review: Opportunity Is Knocking

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So you agree you aren't that far off of a 60 million contract.  Thats affectively where I am at - with a blow out end of the year could end at that 80-100 million range.  

If there is a team with real money that wants him, I see 5/75. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

If there is a team with real money that wants him, I see 5/75. 

Then thats a 1st round comp pick if he turns down the QO.    Thats effectively what I am looking at.  Yes the last 2 months will make a major determination on his value.  I understand that.   Currently I am stating 50% chance which is what the current estimates are of a $60 million contract.     

[MMMordabito]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Now we're in the most boring sports week of the year... 

You don't get a kick out of Boomer sounding off with, "Back, back, back, back, back, back, back, back, back!"

[Vanimal46]

Just now, MMMordabito said:

You don't get a kick out of Boomer sounding off with, "Back, back, back, back, back, back, back, back, back!"

The HR derby is on Netflix... No idea who's calling it on that network. But no, I don't really care about the All Star festivities for any sport. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The HR derby is on Netflix... No idea who's calling it on that network. But no, I don't really care about the All Star festivities for any sport. 

Agrees. I just dont' find them interesting at all.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

.246/.328/.414/.742
.263/.329/.406/.735

Which one is Caratini and which one is Jeffers? Those are their slash lines from the last 2 seasons. 

That ignores the 2023 and 2026 seasons.  You picked Jeffers' worst two seasons out of the most recent four, and Caratini's best two.  2026 isn't complete yet, but that's no reason to throw it out as meaningless.

And even then, best versus worst, Jeffers has a tiny, tiny edge in OPS.  To me, that makes them not especially close as comparable as batters.  Across 2023-26 it's .790 to .723.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So you agree you aren't that far off of a 60 million contract.  Thats affectively where I am at - with a blow out end of the year could end at that 80-100 million range.  

I don't think 60 would be crazy, no.

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, ashbury said:

That ignores the 2023 and 2026 seasons.  You picked Jeffers' worst two seasons out of the most recent four, and Caratini's best two.  2026 isn't complete yet, but that's no reason to throw it out as meaningless.

And even then, best versus worst, Jeffers has a tiny, tiny edge in OPS.  To me, that makes them not especially close as comparable as batters.  Across 2023-26 it's .790 to .723.

I hope Boras can convince a team he's a .800+ (or .900+ if you're going off this year) OPS guy and he gets crazy money. I don't think it's likely. I think most teams are going to look at a guy going into his age 30 season, who already has trouble sustaining performance for entire seasons, has never started more than 81 games at catcher, and is a below average defensive catcher and think he's more likely than not going to perform around his career number of a .756 OPS over the life of a deal. And that's a rich man's Victor Caratini. Or at least a whole lot closer to Victor Caratini than any of the guys who got $100+ million deals.

[TheLeviathan]

God I hate that the AL is so aggressively sub-mediocre.  

This feels like the year the Vikings chose not to deal Danielle Hunter while playing some astronaut at QB.

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I hope Boras can convince a team he's a .800+ (or .900+ if you're going off this year) OPS guy and he gets crazy money. I don't think it's likely. I think most teams are going to look at a guy going into his age 30 season, who already has trouble sustaining performance for entire seasons, has never started more than 81 games at catcher, and is a below average defensive catcher and think he's more likely than not going to perform around his career number of a .756 OPS over the life of a deal. And that's a rich man's Victor Caratini. Or at least a whole lot closer to Victor Caratini than any of the guys who got $100+ million deals.

I don't have much disagreement with any of these points.  I just didn't think it necessary to overstate the case.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I don't have much disagreement with any of these points.  I just didn't think it necessary to overstate the case.

Extra dramatics to show how he wasn't at all like the MVP candidates he was being comped against. People tend to be more open to comps when you can give them blind numbers and they can't pick out their favorite Twins player when comped against a guy they aren't as familiar with but certainly don't see as an elite player at the position.

[Mike Sixel]

29 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

God I hate that the AL is so aggressively sub-mediocre.  

This feels like the year the Vikings chose not to deal Danielle Hunter while playing some astronaut at QB.

This.

[mickster]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Bell typically cools off in August which is why contending teams have had no interest in him the last few years.  I hope he continues his June production but history says it is unlikely.

 

Roster sizes only increase by 2 to 28 now and typically one is a pitcher.  So you aren't going to get reinforcements in September or be able to take a look at younger guys like in the past.

If still in contention, that projects to most likely Arcia

[HarmonK03]

9 minutes ago, mickster said:

If still in contention, that projects to most likely Arcia

I hope it's not Arcia, he has no business on a contending team.  He has nothing left to offer at the the major leagues except for the 5th or 6th option as an injury replacement.  No one claimed him when he was available in June.

Culpepper needs to be up here when healthy and Kreidler can be the utilty.  My guess for the extra player would be Fedko or someone similar to be a pinch runner and defensive replacement. 

[Brandon]

16 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

It has been a great first half compared to what I had expected before the season started.  I had thought that the high end of this team was about .500.  Now I think we can be better with some minimal improvements, specifically the bullpen or a starting pitcher.

Here are some of the moves I would be anticipating over the next few weeks:

• When Buxton comes off the IL, I would expect Buxton to return to CF and a platoon of Roden, Keaschall, Martin, and Larnach.  Larnach may end up being traded, which would help alleviate the platoon.
• I would expect Jeffers to be traded at some point.  A lot of the chatter I am reading is suggesting that, since there will be so few sellers, it may come down to competitors trading with each other.  Trading pieces of strength for pieces of weakness.  This is where I expect Jeffers to fall, being traded as a position of strength to another team willing to trade for players we need, not necessarily prospects.
• More bullpen help could be on the way.  The Red Sox just DFA'd our old friend Danny Coulombe.  Like Nance or Go, he wouldn't be the splashiest of pickups.  He could be better than Funderburk or Rojas at this moment in time and provide adequate relief. 
  • The hope would be that he can maintain his defense and occasional production long enough for them to promote Culpepper when he is healthy and built back up again. where we will need Rojas (bullpen or starting).
  • Cole Sands is coming back and that should spell the end for Travis Adams on the ML club for now.  Acton is expected to come back near the end of the month, but I would expect him to be sent to St. Paul or DFA'd when he comes off the IL since he is on the 60-man IL and would require a 40-man spot.
• I can see Caratini getting some games in at 1B again going forward.  This gives an opportunity for Caratini to get playing time and play the platoon game with Lewis.  This has nothing to do with Lewis's production or play in the field.  Just making sure that everyone gets some playing time.
• I hope Buxton's return means the end of Gray on the roster.  Kreidler would be the prominent SS and, I expect similar to Gray, that with more playing time his numbers will revert closer to his career.  Lee could play SS in a pinch, if needed.  Gray or Arcia would still be in St Paul in case Kreidler gets hurt.  Think of Kreidler as a Temu Andrelton Simmons.  He's there to play lockdown SS and any production is a bonus.  The hope would be that he can maintain his defense and production long enough for Culpepper to return from the IL and build himself backup before being promoted.

I doubt Lewis sits much so Cartini can play.  Also while in contention they won't trade Larnarch. Roden will go back down when Buxton is off the DL and Martin will be the backup.  He is not hitting well enough to start.