Week in Review: Opportunity Is Knocking

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

There are currently no catchers making 20 million a year. 

Cal Raleigh has an AAV of 17.5 

If a QO is offered. Jeffers will take it. 

Jeffers would be the best catcher hitting the market with plus defense and plus offense.  If he finishes the year strong and he hits the market he is getting a 5 year $100 million contract.  He will not be taking a 1 year 22 million contract.   He will take the payday and be happy.  

Edit - since some disagree, does everyone agree that the Yankees have a massive need at C.  Depending on how things go,  he will most likely sign a big contract and well over $50 million.   You offer the QO and see what happens.   

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I would be willing to make the qualifying offer. That would set a higher bar for a trade return.

That is true but deceptive. The first three years bought out arb years. The three post free agent years (31-33) in his contract have an AAV of 25 million when you factor in the age 34 buy out.

He's not close to that good though. Are we really comparing him to Raleigh? Catchers don't make giant money. He'd be a fool not to accept 1. 23.... And be a free agent the next year. 

It's been a nice half year, pretty much what projection systems said, even if we fans weren't believers. But I can't see keeping Jeffers. 

Bradley has been amazing. The Twins and he deserve a lot of credit for his improvement. Matthews shows the value of moving mediocre starters to the bullpen, something they should do more over time. 

For the roster crunch? I'm dealing Bell if possible, with Buxton and Larnach splitting time at DH. Got to keep Byron healthy. If that doesn't work, maybe Larnach if I can get a prospect I can make a RP quickly.  This is tricky....

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Jeffers would be the best catcher hitting the market with plus defense and plus offense.  If he finishes the year strong and he hits the market he is getting a 5 year $100 million contract.  He will not be taking a 1 year 22 million contract.   He will take the payday and be happy.  

Edit - since some disagree, does everyone agree that the Yankees have a massive need at C.  Depending on how things go,  he will most likely sign a big contract and well over $50 million.   You offer the QO and see what happens.   

No chance he gets 5 100, imo. 5 75 is my guess. 

[HarmonK03]

58 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Hasn’t he been taking really good at bats and making really good contact so far? He lost an extra base hit when his smash off the wall was a walk off and counted as a single. Thus far his average exit velocity is second on the team and 63.6% of his balls in play have been hard contact while his strike out rate has been relatively low.

He's been up a week and has 3 hits.  Let's see some consistent production before we appoint him our next superstar.  He has struggled in the past in his short stints in the major leagues.  We just don't know yet what he can do.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Mid season Review

What has worked -  The offense is starting to click.  The Twins have multiple players beginning to get hot.  Larnach, Lee, Clemens, Lewis, Caratini, Bell.   Jeffers coming back.   Buxton has been a beast with the bat again.  The offense is legit.    

Injuries galore - Starting pitching got hit hard.   Losing Lopez, Abel and Festa hurt.   Having 8 plus starting arms coming into the year was a godsend,  but the depth is maxed out, with minimal option left.    

Found a star -  Bradley is becoming the starter we expected to have in Lopez.  The Twins have as good of a 1-2 punch in Ryan and Bradley as anyone in the league.  

Bullpen - Bend but don't break.  Yes the ERA is the worst in the league, but its more been blow outs of games we were already losing.  They have not had the blown saves or holds like they had at the end of the year.  Again injuries have hurt - Banda, Sands.   Wow has Gomez and Morris really stepped up.   They appear to be the 2 high leverage relievers to rely on the rest of the way.  We need to find 2-3 more.  Nance is a good start and Sands is coming back.  I really really hope we can bring back Coloumbe.  We have more needs than most and a knowledge of what he can do.  

Minor deals have worked really well -  Larnach back at 4 million looks great in hind sight.   Bell at 5.5 millions looks good down the stretch when he typically gets hot.  Caratini was godsend when Jeffers got hurt.  Jackson looks like a legit backup catcher which is why we are keeping 3 catchers.  At this point, I would deal with the roster limitation for 6 more weeks until we get to Sept 1st and the roster increases.  Caratini and Jackson are a great duo for next year.  Banda really settled in prior to the injury.  Rogers for 2 million has done a ton of leverage work.  That a lot to expect out of a declining arm.  Gomez is an absolute find as stated before.  Kreidler is manning the SS position admirably.  Clemens has improved over last year.     If the only player to not really pan out was Orze,  this was an extremely successful rebuild of the bullpen all things considered with minimal resources put into it. 

If the Twins can begin to really solidify the bullpen into the strength which has some possibilities,  the Twins could become a decent threat in the playoffs.  2 good starters can carry you and the offense looks decent.  They are still likely too aggressive to succeed in the playoff but its a start.  If Nance, Sands, and potential Coloumbe can lock down the middle relief then,  you are looking at adding 1-2 bullpen arms at the deadline.  Considering where they started at thats a major win.  

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Jeffers would be the best catcher hitting the market with plus defense and plus offense.  If he finishes the year strong and he hits the market he is getting a 5 year $100 million contract.  He will not be taking a 1 year 22 million contract.   He will take the payday and be happy.  

Edit - since some disagree, does everyone agree that the Yankees have a massive need at C.  Depending on how things go,  he will most likely sign a big contract and well over $50 million.   You offer the QO and see what happens.   

There are 2 catchers in MLB with $100 million deals currently. JT Realmuto had one previously. Ryan Jeffers is not JT Realmuto, Cal Raleigh, or Will Smith. He is not a plus defender. And he is not an .800+ OPS guy. He isn't ever getting MVP votes. I think familiarity, and general lack of offensive stars in MN, has lead to a significant overrating of Ryan Jeffers.

He's absolutely a solid player who can start for a contender. But he's not in the same stratosphere as the catchers who get $100 million deals. His best case is probably the Kirk deal at 5 years and 58 million. But Kirk is 26, not 29. Jeffers getting 5 years and being paid until he's 34 is also no sure thing.

Would people have been happy paying Victor Caratini 5 years and 50+ million this offseason? If I told you we signed Victor Caratini to a 1 year, $23 million deal before this season would you have been thrilled? They're both below average defenders and their lines the last 2 years are:

.246/.328/.414/.742
.263/.329/.406/.735

Both had an OPS+ of 106. Unless you think Ryan Jeffers is suddenly a .900 OPS guy, he's Victor Caratini. And nobody would be happy paying Victor Caratini the numbers that get thrown around on Jeffers.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not close to that good though. Are we really comparing him to Raleigh? Catchers don't make giant money. He'd be a fool not to accept 1. 23.... And be a free agent the next year. 

It's been a nice half year, pretty much what projection systems said, even if we fans weren't believers. But I can't see keeping Jeffers. 

Bradley has been amazing. The Twins and he deserve a lot of credit for his improvement. Matthews shows the value of moving mediocre starters to the bullpen, something they should do more over time. 

For the roster crunch? I'm dealing Bell if possible, with Buxton and Larnach splitting time at DH. Got to keep Byron healthy. If that doesn't work, maybe Larnach if I can get a prospect I can make a RP quickly.  This is tricky....

I assume you mean Morris, not Matthews, but this is pretty much where I'm at on things, too.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not close to that good though. Are we really comparing him to Raleigh? Catchers don't make giant money. He'd be a fool not to accept 1. 23.... And be a free agent the next year. 

It's been a nice half year, pretty much what projection systems said, even if we fans weren't believers. But I can't see keeping Jeffers. 

Bradley has been amazing. The Twins and he deserve a lot of credit for his improvement. Matthews shows the value of moving mediocre starters to the bullpen, something they should do more over time. 

For the roster crunch? I'm dealing Bell if possible, with Buxton and Larnach splitting time at DH. Got to keep Byron healthy. If that doesn't work, maybe Larnach if I can get a prospect I can make a RP quickly.  This is tricky....

Cal Raleigh signed a 6 year $105 million contract - which also bought out arbitration years.  Had he hit free agency Raleight would have gotten more than $100 million so this isn't a apples to apples comparison.  Jeffers will come into free agency hitting 2+ War in 3 of the last for years and likely with 2 - 3 plus WAR.   Do to the lack of decent catchers that hit free agency he will have significant demand.   We won't keep Jeffers its why we are carrying 3 catchers. I go deeper into this on my previous post.   

As to the Twins, they are effectively stating they aren't selling.  They have said no on Ryan and Jeffers,  unless they tank the next 2 weeks, and Larnach and Bell appear to be safe as well.  They think they can get to the playoffs,  and honestly, their arrow is way up.  The offense is beginning to hit on all cylinders,  the defense is improving with Kreidler manning short,  Lee doing better at 3rd and Clemens doing admirably at 2nd.  Lewis is holding his own at 1st.    You deal with the roster crunch for 6 more weeks.  They will be fine.   

[mickster]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not close to that good though. Are we really comparing him to Raleigh? Catchers don't make giant money. He'd be a fool not to accept 1. 23.... And be a free agent the next year. 

It's been a nice half year, pretty much what projection systems said, even if we fans weren't believers. But I can't see keeping Jeffers. 

Bradley has been amazing. The Twins and he deserve a lot of credit for his improvement. Matthews shows the value of moving mediocre starters to the bullpen, something they should do more over time. 

For the roster crunch? I'm dealing Bell if possible, with Buxton and Larnach splitting time at DH. Got to keep Byron healthy. If that doesn't work, maybe Larnach if I can get a prospect I can make a RP quickly.  This is tricky....

Jeffers may not project that high, but catchers are thin at the MLB level right now and signing him to an extension may be an overpay, but also necessary for the next couple of years.  Bell wont' bring much more than a single A prospect.   I would ride him out for the year.   Larnach needs to stay - ERod/Martin/Wallner should be the trade pieces

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Jeffers would be the best catcher hitting the market with plus defense and plus offense.  If he finishes the year strong and he hits the market he is getting a 5 year $100 million contract.  He will not be taking a 1 year 22 million contract.   He will take the payday and be happy.  

Maybe... I have no idea how the market will pay out. Competition for his services should drive the price up but I'm under the impression that major league front offices are pretty disciplined. 

I agree that he will most likely be the top catcher in the free agent market. 

To my knowledge... only two catchers have been offered a QO since 2018 and both declined.

Grandal was offered a 17.9 QO. Turned it down and he signed for 18.7 One Year. 

Realmuto was offered a 18.9. Turned it down and he signed for 5 years/123 million. 

Realmuto was coming off three years of .825, .820, .840 OPS which is something Jeffers achieved once in 2023. 

I'm not knocking Jeffers but the QO should be around 23 million and we don't have a lot of precedence set at the catcher position.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, mickster said:

Jeffers may not project that high, but catchers are thin at the MLB level right now and signing him to an extension may be an overpay, but also necessary for the next couple of years.  Bell wont' bring much more than a single A prospect.   I would ride him out for the year.   Larnach needs to stay - ERod/Martin/Wallner should be the trade pieces

What are you getting for those players? I can't see dealing ERod without a highy overpay.

[mickster]

11 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Mid season Review

What has worked -  The offense is starting to click.  The Twins have multiple players beginning to get hot.  Larnach, Lee, Clemens, Lewis, Caratini, Bell.   Jeffers coming back.   Buxton has been a beast with the bat again.  The offense is legit.    

Injuries galore - Starting pitching got hit hard.   Losing Lopez, Abel and Festa hurt.   Having 8 plus starting arms coming into the year was a godsend,  but the depth is maxed out, with minimal option left.    

Found a star -  Bradley is becoming the starter we expected to have in Lopez.  The Twins have as good of a 1-2 punch in Ryan and Bradley as anyone in the league.  

Bullpen - Bend but don't break.  Yes the ERA is the worst in the league, but its more been blow outs of games we were already losing.  They have not had the blown saves or holds like they had at the end of the year.  Again injuries have hurt - Banda, Sands.   Wow has Gomez and Morris really stepped up.   They appear to be the 2 high leverage relievers to rely on the rest of the way.  We need to find 2-3 more.  Nance is a good start and Sands is coming back.  I really really hope we can bring back Coloumbe.  We have more needs than most and a knowledge of what he can do.  

Minor deals have worked really well -  Larnach back at 4 million looks great in hind sight.   Bell at 5.5 millions looks good down the stretch when he typically gets hot.  Caratini was godsend when Jeffers got hurt.  Jackson looks like a legit backup catcher which is why we are keeping 3 catchers.  At this point, I would deal with the roster limitation for 6 more weeks until we get to Sept 1st and the roster increases.  Caratini and Jackson are a great duo for next year.  Banda really settled in prior to the injury.  Rogers for 2 million has done a ton of leverage work.  That a lot to expect out of a declining arm.  Gomez is an absolute find as stated before.  Kreidler is manning the SS position admirably.  Clemens has improved over last year.     If the only player to not really pan out was Orze,  this was an extremely successful rebuild of the bullpen all things considered with minimal resources put into it. 

If the Twins can begin to really solidify the bullpen into the strength which has some possibilities,  the Twins could become a decent threat in the playoffs.  2 good starters can carry you and the offense looks decent.  They are still likely too aggressive to succeed in the playoff but its a start.  If Nance, Sands, and potential Coloumbe can lock down the middle relief then,  you are looking at adding 1-2 bullpen arms at the deadline.  Considering where they started at thats a major win.  

Now get Ryan signed and you have Pablo, Joe and Taj to lead the SP

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I assume you mean Morris, not Matthews, but this is pretty much where I'm at on things, too.

Yes. 

[mickster]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

What are you getting for those players? I can't see dealing ERod without a highy overpay.

Same as you get with Bell.    Wallner/Martin not much more than a lottery ticket.   I am not a believer that ERod will reach his ceiling, and even if he does, all of the OF prospects can't all be on the team.   He is the one I trade for help

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There are 2 catchers in MLB with $100 million deals currently. JT Realmuto had one previously. Ryan Jeffers is not JT Realmuto, Cal Raleigh, or Will Smith. He is not a plus defender. And he is not an .800+ OPS guy. He isn't ever getting MVP votes. I think familiarity, and general lack of offensive stars in MN, has lead to a significant overrating of Ryan Jeffers.

He's absolutely a solid player who can start for a contender. But he's not in the same stratosphere as the catchers who get $100 million deals. His best case is probably the Kirk deal at 5 years and 58 million. But Kirk is 26, not 29. Jeffers getting 5 years and being paid until he's 34 is also no sure thing.

Would people have been happy paying Victor Caratini 5 years and 50+ million this offseason? If I told you we signed Victor Caratini to a 1 year, $23 million deal before this season would you have been thrilled? They're both below average defenders and their lines the last 2 years are:

.246/.328/.414/.742
.263/.329/.406/.735

Both had an OPS+ of 106. Unless you think Ryan Jeffers is suddenly a .900 OPS guy, he's Victor Caratini. And nobody would be happy paying Victor Caratini the numbers that get thrown around on Jeffers.

Realmuto signed his 115 million contract in 2019.     Raleigh signed an extension which took away his 3 option years.   Will Smith has a 10 year 140 million contract.  

Currently Dingler has the highest WAR for catcher with 3.9, followed by Langeliers at 2.2 and then its Jeffers with $50 million.   Fine if you don't agree he will be a $100 million contract, which I think is a possibility I will stand by that he will get more than $60 million right now and would place a bet now.   With multiple years of 2+ year this isn't just a 1 off.  To find solid defense with good offensive potential those just don't grow on trees.  Now will the Twins be willing to take the risk of offering the QO.  I say no, but if they think they will have to spend,  along with several other teams,   there will be minimal risk to doing so, and they could then trade off Jackson.