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Posted

It's time to check back in with another Twins mock. The MLB Draft is just five weeks away. This class is as muddled as any I've covered, though it's plenty deep in talent. You can find our consensus board here. Let's check in on some player profiles it's currently mocking to the Twins with their first few picks in July

At #3, the Twins Select Vahn Lackey, Catcher, Georgia Tech
Every draft cycle seems to produce 2-3 first-round catchers, most of whom have warts offensively, defensively, or both. Georgia Tech's Vahn Lackey may be the most complete college catcher in recent seasons and has been the name with the most helium associated with it in the early going in 2026.

Lackey entered 2026 viewed as an excellent defensive catcher, with athleticism uncommon for the position, in addition to having strong bat-to-ball skills. He continues to look excellent behind the plate, with good receiving and blocking skills, an excellent arm and strong pop and transfer times.

Offensively, his power has taken a step forward. After hitting 6 home runs in 60 games in 2025, he has 9 in his first 25 in 2026, with more walks than strikeouts, adding a high on-base floor to his profile. He'll need to continue to prove it in conference play, but a continuation of his early-season improvements will push Lackey into top-5 consideration due to the completeness of his skill sets on both sides of the ball.

At #43, the Twins Select Archer Horn, SS/RHP, St. Ignatius College Prep, CA
Horn is a two-way prospect out of Northern California, currently committed to Stanford. He's a talented pitcher who has been up to 95 mph with his fastball, also mixing in a good changeup and a solid curveball that has strong spin traits. Most evaluators think his future is as a hitter, however.

In the box, Horn has good bat speed, barrel feel, and demonstrates the ability to consistently generate loft in his left-handed swing. I think he'll eventually be a power over hit profile, but he currently has the potential to be at least solid average in both tools.

Defensively, it's likely he moves off shortstop eventually, but he has a future on the first at second or third base. His commitment to Stanford, and his placement on the board in the 40-60 range generate some skepticism around his signability.

Riojas pitched for two seasons at UTSA prior to transferring to Texas. He's continued to take steps forward in his two seasons with the Longhorns, capped by an excellent 2026 season.

At #74, the Twins Select Ruger Riojas, RHP, Texas
Riojas is undersized for a starter at 6'0, 195 pounds. He'll also be 23 on draft day, one of the older prospects selected in the entire class. His fastball sits 94-96 mph with good carry and will peak at 97-98 mph. It's backed up by a splitter that sits in the mid 80s, a cutter, a sweeper and a curveball to round out a well-developed arsenal.

Riojas has a strikeout rate north of 35% heading into the end of the regular season, combined with an impressive 5.2% walk rate. He'll be drafted in the first 3 rounds as a priority senior sign that will allow an organization some financial flexibility with other early picks.

At #79, the Twins Select Taylor Rabe, RHP, Ole Miss
Taylor Rabe is a 6’5, right-handed pitcher for Ole’ Miss, who has been a significant late riser on draft boards down the stretch of the 2026 season. After blowing out his elbow in his senior year of high school, he made it to campus and spent his 2024 season recovering from TJ surgery.

Rabe transitioned into a starting role in 2026, after functioning primarily as a reliever his sophomore season. Entering Super Regional play, he’s logged a career high 63.1 innings, posting a strikeout rate north of 34%, while managing a 3.82 FIP, an excellent mark given the quality of the competition he’s facing regularly.

Rabe has an excellent fastball that sits 95-97 mph but has touched triple digits. It’s primarily complemented by a cutter (86 mph), a slider (82 mph), and a changeup (87 mph), giving Rabe a solid four pitch mix with which to transition into pro ball. There’s excellent strike throwing here. Rabe has walked just 3.8% of hitters in 2026. That’s actually up from 2025 (2.5%) and he gets good extension down the mound.

There’s a ton of starter traits here, and I like Rabe a ton to polish up his arsenal and optimize his approach with an offseason in a pro system under his belt. The arrow is firmly up here.


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Posted

For no particular reason, I have switched to Jackson Flora as my choice. However, there are plenty of days left to change my mind.

Roch and Vahn had their struggles down the stretch as the tournament played out and their teams, which were ranked #1 and #2, were eliminated in the regions. Flora was a stud whenever he pitched all year including in the tournament play downs. Unfortunately, a starting pitcher cannot win a series by himself, just the game they pitch.

Posted

Jamie you always know your board so I trust you.  Still I think I'd prefer Spangler to Horn, but maybe you see what I don't which is that Spangler doesn't make it that far.  I'm fine with any of the top three hitters and if it goes as planned right now I think we do get Lackey.  Don't love the shorter pitchers, but if it's a needed save money move I'm down with that.  I like Rabe at 79.  That sounds right up the Twins ally.

I think hitter, hitter makes a lot of sense especially if going high school hitter. Still I think I'd like to save pick 43 for an over slot high school pitcher.  Preferably a good lefty.  Maybe the best ones will all get eaten up in the comp rounds before us, but I'd like to get a potential elite arm to go with the elite bat picked at number 3.  Logan Schmidt, Hirschkorn or Borthwick would be names I'd consider there if still on the board. maybe Contreras as well?

I'd like the Twins to make this more of a pitcher draft early and late. I feel like they did well with Quick Ellwenger, Reitz and Barr along with their notable late round arms.  I'd like to see them focus there as it feels like they have more success there.

Also it's early but it seems like they have a good crop of FCL hitters that will likely hang out at A ball next year so might not need as many drafted bats and I'd guess that Beltre and Young will be repeating that level as is.  I'd also think that if they are seller's at the deadline they could get some FCL or A ball throw in's if needed to fill out the roster.

I just think high quality arms are so important and with so many of our young arms up in the big leagues I'd like to see them replenish the farm with more of them.  Also so many arms get hurt you almost need double the amount you think to make it through a season.  Every level seems short on arms right now.  That might change with some guys coming back from injury but my reasoning still stands.  They appear to be good at Identifying good arms early and late in the draft.  They should embrace where they find value and find hitters in the margins.  It seems like the track record is if they don't find their hitter in the first round they generally don't make it.  Very few second round picks have made it as hitters and pretty much nothing after that.  Arms they have hit on from almost everywhere in the draft. I'd focus on arms if I were them.

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