Joe Ryan and the Elephant in the Room

[Original_JB]

I think MLB has expanded the playoffs to the point where the diluted quality of some of the teams involved (supposed "contenders") are deluded in their thinking that they actually have a chance to go somewhere.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

They absolutely do not need to trade Joe Ryan at the deadline. There is a key piece missing to any discussion about moving Ryan in a transaction. What is the return? The Twins do not need more DH type players. They do not need any more back of the rotation pitchers. The club has a plethora of iffy LH hitting OF prospects. Finally, the organization has more than enough utility infielders. If the Twins can somehow finagle a top prospect from a team, even if a couple of Twins prospects are added to Ryan, make a deal. I don't want the team to add any more "maybe" players because just getting a draft choice is as good as those maybes. So .... strong return = yes .... weak return = no.

Plus the fact that there may be an MLB shut down in 2027, would be a consideration for any team wanting to trade for Ryan.  That fact lessens Ryan's value as far as assuming he is "under control"  in 2027.  Prospects will always be "possibilities". The Joe Ryan Experience is not a possibility, but rather the real deal for this season and in 2027. The argument that Joe "might get hurt" can apply to  every player, including the valuable prospects received for Joe in a trade.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Are we convinced this is the right path forward, even if he's willing to accept it? The track record of paying 30+ year old pitchers that kind of money is not good. Large-market teams can afford it, which is why they're basically the only ones who make such deals.

Even if payroll goes up somewhat that's a big fraction annually going to one aging starter, for a franchise that (rightfully) prides itself on pitching development. 

Personally, I think the options are: trade him or plan to offer a QO following 2027. But as mentioned by commenters above, there's just so much uncertainty with next season and the CBA that there's major risk in not charting a decisive path now.

You're never sure about the decision to sign a big money contract. I am fine either way. I am not convinced they even want to, so I wanted them to trade him last offseason. 

But we gotta stop acting as though $30 million dollars AAV or $150 M total is some crazy contract out of reach for the Twins. The median payroll is something like $200 million. That is where the Twins SHOULD be, minimum, if they were trying to contend. If you're resigning Ryan, that's what you're committing to. So, no, that money is not a concern at all. 

[LastOnePicked]

This team has to - has to - maximize their future value with every transaction. Ownership and payroll is still a question mark. They're still several strong arms and bats away from contending. Teams like the Twins need to use savvy trades to sell high and buy low.

Jeffers, Buxton, Ryan and Lopez all should have been traded in the offseason. One is already off the table (Lopez), two are nearly off the table (Jeffers and Buxton) and Ryan has already had an injury scare. If they don't trade him and don't sign him, they will have lost tremendous future potential that could have been used to supplement the Abel/Jenkins/Culpepper era.

[JBK]

Pohlad better pull off a Herschel Walker trade or sign him long-term now.

[LambchoP]

I doubt we'll be able to extend him. If that's the case, the smart move would be to trade him at the deadline for a haul. Hopefully 2 top 100 prospects who are hopefully close to MLB ready. Maybe a solid SP prospect and a potential long term 1st baseman?

[laloesch]

4 hours ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Question:  If Ryan is "under control" through 2027, why do the Twins need to make the move at the deadline in 2026?

Because the 2027 season is likely lost due to an upcoming strike.  I would trade him now if they don't attempt to extend him, while he still has strong value.

[laloesch]

8 minutes ago, JBK said:

Pohlad better pull off a Herschel Walker trade or sign him long-term now.

uhhhhh....i hope you mean the reverse.  The Herschel Walker trade was an unmitigated disaster for the Vikings and basically set up the Cowboys for multiple superbowls.

[laloesch]

13 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

This team has to - has to - maximize their future value with every transaction. Ownership and payroll is still a question mark. They're still several strong arms and bats away from contending. Teams like the Twins need to use savvy trades to sell high and buy low.

Jeffers, Buxton, Ryan and Lopez all should have been traded in the offseason. One is already off the table (Lopez), two are nearly off the table (Jeffers and Buxton) and Ryan has already had an injury scare. If they don't trade him and don't sign him, they will have lost tremendous future potential that could have been used to supplement the Abel/Jenkins/Culpepper era.

THIS.  Ryan needs to be traded if they can't sign him.  They probably already know the answer.  Jeffers should have been traded at the end of last season, but they hung onto him and now he's down.  Buxton has a no full trade clause until 2028 if I remember correctly then it becomes a limited no trade clause.  However, after last season's deadline selloff there were grumblings that he would accept a trade for the right situation.  The Twins should have jumped on that.  Lopez was also receiving attention.

Simply put this team needs more talent at all levels.  A, AA, AAA, and the major league team. They have holes at 1st base, 2nd, 3rd, and short.  Culpepper will fill one, and possibly Keaschall too, but the rest are question marks.  Brooks Lee..... MAYBE.  Royce Lewis is teetering on the edge of has been.  From a macro perspective this team simply has too many holes to let guys as valuable as Ryan, Jeffers, Lopez, etc. walk without trading them.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

I get that.... But what have Tampa and Milwaukee achieved by operating that way..... Neither have ever won a world series.  Isn't that the goal?  We have a known commodity in Ryan who can be a starter in the playoffs - if we trade him, we're hoping to get someone as good as Joe, but there is no guarantee the player we get in return ever even plays in the majors.  Has this Front Office proven they can be trusted to get a good return for Joe - I think that is a valid question.

No mid market team has win the WS in over twenty years, I think. 

A realistic goal is an exciting, very good team. Imo. 

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No mid market team has win the WS in over twenty years, I think. 

A realistic goal is an exciting, very good team. Imo. 

St Louis and Kansas City are both significantly smaller markets and have won the World Series in that time. St. Louis twice. 

And that of course ignores teams like Detroit, Colorado, Tampa, Cleveland, and Arizona that have won pennants in that time as well. 

So...your thesis is not only wrong, it's very wrong.