Article: Trading Perkins Makes Too Much Sense

[twinstalker]

Glen Perkins is obviously the Twins biggest trade chip, if they choose to make him available. Normally, a much sought-after reliever on a bad team is a no-brainer trade candidate, but Perkins is different. Consider:

 

 

• We have to hope 2014 shows substantial improvement for the Twins as both the pitching stabilizes and the prospects graduate. Then we pretty much have to hope this team can contend starting in 2015. If that hope isn't there, then what in the hell are we even doing here? I personally expected 2013 to be just like it is, but the time for crap is over after this season.
  
• Perkins, unlike most outstanding relievers, has a very team-friendly contract that extends out through 2016. To wit: 14:$3.75M, 15:$3.75M, 16:$4.5M club option with incentives that likely add a mil or two each year. Much better than $8-12M you normally pay for his level of performance.
  
• When the team is ready to contend in 2015, the absence of a lock-down stopper could create problems.
  

 

So there is a lot to weigh here. What is the probability we'll need a closer like Perkins in 2014, 2015, and/or 2016, and what is the probability that the Twins could find a suitable replacement if they let him go? By 2015 Michael Tonkin or another unknown could well be a fine stopper.

 

Then, of course, there is the question of what sort of return Perkins can bring. It's my personal opinion that if we're not talking high-end prospects, the discussion ends right here. As much as I like, say, Jorge Polanco and Adam Brett Walker, if another team were to offer them up to the Twins for Perkins, the probability of one of them being a positive impact eventually is too small and their upside not high enough to give up a commodity like Perkins.

 

So I'm going to bring up six scenarios and attach names to them. Not necessarily names that are available but names that represent their positions and their prospect status. Please avoid the "the Giants/Rangers/Whatevers will never give him up" statements, because that's not really the point. The point is the value from the Twins point of view. If the team in question would never consider such a deal due to not being in contention or just the value from its point of view, that's fine, the names are just examples.

 

Scenario 1: Trade Perkins for a top shortstop prospect at the A level. I'm talking almost sure things here, names like Addison Russell, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa. Do the Twins do it? These guys won't contribute until 2015 or 2016, but there is very little doubt about them, and your shortstop is set for perhaps a decade. The obvious problem is that the names I mention are basically the only names in this class, and their teams aren't going to make that deal. But do you make that deal if offered? I think you obviously have to. More realistic shortstop names are in Scenario 6, guys that I'd want but not alone for Perkins.

 

Scenario 2: Trade Perkins for a top prospect hitter who's nearly ready but is a corner guy, an area where we expect Hicks, Arcia, Sano, Plouffe, and perhaps the best of the rest to occupy. One name I've heard mentioned in this regard is Detroit 3B/OF Nick Castellanos, a current AAA rh hitter with a very good hit tool and very moderate power (but no less so than any current MLB Twins). There is a very good chance that Castellanos will be a quality bat at even the corner positions. Another is Pirate prospect Gregory Polanco, whose prospect to us is dimmed just slightly by the fact that some of his value is as a good CF, which he won't play here. Both these players are in the current BA top 15, but it's important to note there is a gap between their prospects and the Top 10 guys like Bogaerts, Yelich, and Sano. Do you trade Perkins for one of these guys? As difficult as it is, I think you do. These might not be as unrealistic as the Scenario 1 guys. Detroit is filling needs, and Pittsburgh already has two star CFers playing everyday. Castellanos is ready in 2014, Polanco not until 2015 probably. My opinion is yes, trade Perkins, because a high-quality hitter in the hand is worth one hundred non-Sano non-Buxtons.

 

Scenario 3: Would you trade Perkins for a top and close pitching prospect? The type of names I'm referring to here are the Alex Meyer types. There are certain pitchers (Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Taijuan Walker e.g.) that carry franchise-type labels. We won't consider them. Would you, though, trade Glen Perkins straight up for a pitcher of the quality of Jameson Taillon, Yordano Ventura, or Noah Syndergaard? These three are all very close to MLB and all have extremely high upside, but none are sure things. Note that each is considered a better prospect than Meyer. I do this trade for any of the three. The first two hit 100 mph, and the third is uber-polished. I doubt any guy like this would be made available.

 

Scenario 4: Would you trade Perkins for a high end prospect pitcher in A ball? This is what Alex Meyer was last year at this time. Names are Robert Stephenson, Taylor Guerreri, and Max Fried. Scout gush over these guys for different reasons and predict MLB success for all. We're looking at 2016 for this type of guy. Again, I think I would pull the trigger. This type of return for Perkins should not be unrealistic. Fans of the other team will scream, but so many things happen to derail even the best Class A arms.

 

Scenario 5: The Ramos scenario, except that Perkins is good. The Twins need a catcher to catch 60-80 games in 2015 and take over for Mauer soon thereafter. Gary Sanchez (NYY) and Austin Hedges are the guys who qualify here as candidates from strictly our point of view. Do you trade Perkins for a catcher as good as these guys? I think this is a tough one, and we should consider Josmil Pinto is already in the system putting up great stats. Are they better than Pinto?

 

Scenario 6: Should we look at lesser prospects in tandem for Perkins? The teams involved here, if interested in Perkins, would certainly not want to give up more than just one name, but I don't know that it would make sense for the Twins to get just one name. Alen Hanson (Pit) and Dorsyss Paulino (Cle) are two name that are relatively highly rated (Top 100) but not guaranteed to stick at SS. Getting a shortstop is important, but getting a shortstop's bat that has to move to another position is dangerous. Adding another name would reduce the risk. Again, what we'd likely need is something another team won't likely give, but you never know when the Bill Smith in a GM might come out, like it did with Sabean in 2003. Would you make a deal for two nice prospects (one top 150, one top 250) for Perkins? Combinations that come to mind are Pittsburgh's Hanson and Josh Bell (yeah, I know, too much), Baltimore's Eduardo Rodriguez and Nick Delmonico, Arizona's Chris Owings and Andrew Chafin (or David Holmberg), Texas' Luis Sardina and Jorge Alfaro and Cleveland's Dorssys Paulino and Mitch Brown (Paulino being good enough for us to accept lesser-rated Brown as the addition). I would do any deal like this that brings back a shortstop or top prospect starter as one of the pieces.

 

To put this in perspective, Baltimore laughed when the Cubs wanted either Jonathan Schoop or Eduardo Rodriguez in a deal for Matt Garza. Of course, Garza is a free agent at the end of the year, and Perkins is controlled through 2016, so perhaps we're not too far off. Again, this is supposed to be from the Twins' point of view. What would it take for a deal to make sense for the Twins, given the value Perkins brings with his arm and his contract?

 

The simple answer could be that we'll never get this kind of return in any of the scenarios, and that therefore why trade him? For instance, I mentioned Mitch Brown, the kid from Rochester, MN who was deemed 1st-rd supplemental quality in the 2012 draft. Perkins would easily bring him and probably another like him, but that package for the Twins (two Browns) would be extremely risky and, well, dumb. You would cross your fingers lottery-like and hope one would become Perkins. So perhaps Perkins is un-tradeable. If true, so be it.

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2080-Trading-Perkins-Makes-Too-Much-Sense

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sure, Perkins should be available.

 

For a top 50 prospect and a high upside guy, maybe borderline top 100 talent.

 

Anything less than that and you tell the opposing GM to hit the bricks and come back with a real offer. The Twins don't need to trade Glen.

 

Also, that top 50 prospect should be a starting pitcher or a middle infielder. Set the bar high and tell the other GM to piss off if they don't like it.

[Jon Marthaler]

Nooooooooooo

[Oldgoat_MN]

I have never understood the hype over Nick Castellonos. It's not that he couldn't be a very good player one day, maybe even a star, but his numbers in AA weren't all that intimidating and his numbers in AAA are below those of Arcia, Colabello, Bigley, Richardson and Clete Thomas.

 

I believe you have to pull the trigger if offered a lot, but some of these guys seem like they have reputations that they have yet to earn.

[gunnarthor]

I have never understood the hype over Nick Castellonos. It's not that he couldn't be a very good player one day, maybe even a star, but his numbers in AA weren't all that intimidating and his numbers in AAA are below those of Arcia, Colabello, Bigley, Richardson and Clete Thomas.

 

I believe you have to pull the trigger if offered a lot, but some of these guys seem like they have reputations that they have yet to earn.

 

Numbers aren't everything although his are fine. He's about a year younger than Arcia and reportedly plays better defense. He's also right handed which seems to be better longterm for RF. He's easily a top 20 prospect. I would be absolutely thrilled if the Twins got him for Perkins and I hope that he's the type of high upside guy we're looking for.

 

(It would also be nice if the Red Sox bullpen started blowing more games so they might panic and trade Ranauda).

[twinstalker]

I have never understood the hype over Nick Castellonos. It's not that he couldn't be a very good player one day, maybe even a star, but his numbers in AA weren't all that intimidating and his numbers in AAA are below those of Arcia, Colabello, Bigley, Richardson and Clete Thomas.

 

I believe you have to pull the trigger if offered a lot, but some of these guys seem like they have reputations that they have yet to earn.

 

There's quite a difference between AAAA players who have figured out AAA but not MLB and 21 year olds who have advanced so far. His numbers are very good at AAA for a 21 yr old. That his numbers don't quite match the year-older Arcia's shouldn't be a slight at all. To wit, having another Arcia-quality bat would be a very big deal to the team. Also, I should add that Castellanos has hit 9 of his 12 HRs away from Toledo, a sign that the Mud Hens' park might mute his power. Just my two cents.

[jorgenswest]

To add or counter Dave Cameron's article, a look at all closer age 30 for 1991-2010. There 32 closers in the 20 year span. many effective closers stayed effective.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0Apr9y6uWjOUKdGxlNzJJRXQzTGx6WDVfLWp0a2JBcmc

 

Cameron looked at if differently in his take. Only looking at 2010 gives a very different group. You get young closers that haven't shown they can stay healthy with the workload. You get guys who haven't proven they will be effective in the closer role.

 

Will he remain effective?

 

Perkins has shown that he can pitch very effectively given this workload. Effective pitchers in this list remained effective through age 33.

 

What about an injury?

 

Yes, there were some injuries. The number of injuries was smaller than when I did a similar look at set up man.Let's assume there is a 20-25% chance that Perkins will lose a significant chunk of one of the next three seasons. Isn't it just as likely that a top 100 starting pitching prospect would miss significant time to injury in the next 3 years?

 

What value can you get for a closer or very effective reliever?

 

Most recent comps might include trades for Matt Capps, Jonathan Broxton, Mike Adams, Koji Uehara and Brandon League. Those are the best of the relievers that moved in the summer.

 

The Uehara deal worked out great. Should we take a failed prospect? How often to guys like Davis turn it around? Would we take a Ramos a top 100 prospect having a bad half season a AAA? You will recall his OPS at the time was .625.

 

The ceiling for any trade last year was probably Grienke. His return was a #55 prospect in Jean Segura and two other guys. Hellweg would have been in the top 200. It would be a steal if a reliever could match a Grienke level return. The Twins would absolutely do this trade.

 

That level is probably not attainable. Where does Ryan set the line for Perkins?

[Yossarian]

This presumes there are a bunch of GMs as idiotic as Bill Smith was when he traded Ramos for Capps, quality closer extraordinaire....

[Winston Smith]

A little off the chart but would a Perkins for Mark Trumbo (or somebody like him just an example) work? An everyday, semi proven possibly position blocked, player rather than a prospect or two with 3+ years of control make more sense?

[Joe A. Preusser]

Sure, Perkins should be available.

 

For a top 50 prospect and a high upside guy, maybe borderline top 100 talent.

 

Anything less than that and you tell the opposing GM to hit the bricks and come back with a real offer. The Twins don't need to trade Glen.

 

Also, that top 50 prospect should be a starting pitcher or a middle infielder. Set the bar high and tell the other GM to piss off if they don't like it.

 

Agree except for the MI part. It has to be a pitcher or a SS, not a 2B.

[gunnarthor]

A Trumbo-type + high prospect isn't nec a bad idea although Trumbo himself isn't a guy I'd want. Just by WAR, Perkins should be worth something around 9-11 WAR over the rest of his contract which is also very cheap. Half year rentals Beltran, Ramos, Mujica, Sanchez etc have gotten a lot more than a Trumbo like guy. Perkins should get the Twins a high upside young player. If they can't find a top guy (or guys) then they should keep him.

[twinstalker]

A little off the chart but would a Perkins for Mark Trumbo (or somebody like him just an example) work? An everyday, semi proven possibly position blocked, player rather than a prospect or two with 3+ years of control make more sense?

Along those lines, is there a shortstop (beside Machado or Bogaerts) who's waiting in line for some team? Frankly, the Twins don't have any reasonable options there, and if they could acquire someone like Erick Aybar was his first couple of years, that (with a decent but not top prospect) might be the sort of thing that makes sense.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Perkins should definitely be on the table, but I wouldn't mind waiting until the offseason, or even a future trade deadline, to deal him if the right offer isn't presented right now. Even keeping him through 2016 is fine -- good pitcher, great contract, local guy, nice asset.

 

It will be interesting watching the market to see if the "right offer" is likely.

[twinstalker]

It has to be a pitcher or a SS, not a 2B.

 

I agree and don't think the Twins are likely to find a much better bridge and prospect than Dozier/Rosario. I feel like 2B is determined. Though I don't recommend just any bum, they can still use some corner sticks. Arcia, Hicks, Sano will be a part of this team going forward. They need five or six when you include DH in the picture.

[jeffk]

Maybe this is just denial, but with several years left on his contract he should still be cheap and dominant in a couple years when, with any luck, the Twins have completed their rebuild, at which point he's quite useful.

[Brandon]

The return would need to be significant as we already have a strong collection of prospects we are short on MI and Starting Pitchers so I think we would want a real good prospect plus a couple of low level prospects with potential. Because you are not just getting Perkins but also getting an invisible 7 million per season as his contract is that team friendly.

[Willihammer]

The first roadblock to a Perkins trade is that the most interested buyer would probably the Tigers. I don't like the idea of giving him to a division rival, but as with all things, if the haul is big enough then it would be worthwhile. It would have to be a pretty gigantic haul to make it worthwhile though, IMHO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Most recent comps might include trades for Matt Capps, Jonathan Broxton, Mike Adams, Koji Uehara and Brandon League. Those are the best of the relievers that moved in the summer.

Broxton and League were both rentals (set to be FA at year's end). Capps, Adams, and Uehara were almost rentals (FA after the following season).

 

Perkins is under contract for THREE affordable seasons beyond this one, so it's going to be hard to find good comparables. Also means he might be just as likely to be dealt in the offseason, or next summer...

[kab21]

 

Will he remain effective?

 

Perkins has shown that he can pitch very effectively given this workload. Effective pitchers in this list remained effective through age 33.

 

 

What exactly has Perkins done to show he can continue to pitch effective? He has pitched 2.5 seasons out of the bullpen. That's not a long track record. He also missed half of the 2009 season with a shoulder injury.

 

If a team is putting a Crick, Barnes, Webster or Castellanos level prospect out there for Perkins the Twins should jump at the trade. I don't care what position the prospect plays as long as he's top 50 (or better) talent with some upside.

 

Anyone that is critical of Castellanos needs to consider that he was a 20 yr old in AA. He's now a 21 yr old in AAA (not the PCL) putting up a .800 OPS with excellent K:BB numbers and solid power numbers.

[TheLeviathan]

I'll throw something out there:

 

Archie Bradley and Chris Owings from Arizona for Doumit and Perkins.

 

Maybe a bit unrealistic, but I'd jump all over it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just by WAR, Perkins should be worth something around 9-11 WAR over the rest of his contract

That's seems like a too-high estimate. Having a career year so far, he's only on pace for 2.5 WAR this season. 3-4 WAR reliever seasons are generally pretty epic (like Kimbrel's 16.7 K/9, Rodney's 2012, etc.) -- Perkins is good, but he hasn't looked epic yet.

 

I'd say Perkins range will be more like 7-9 WAR over the 3.5 years remaining on his deal, assuming he continues to be a very good closer. That's 2-3 WAR per season, which is on par with most decent starting position players (like Trumbo) or starting pitchers (like healthy late-career Radke).

 

I'd agree, I'd like more than that in return if we're going to move Perkins, but realistically, that offer might not come. Although holding onto him is not a bad consolation prize, especially with multiple more deadlines and offseasons to shop him, if so desired.

[jorgenswest]

Broxton and League were both rentals (set to be FA at year's end). Capps, Adams, and Uehara were almost rentals (FA after the following season).

 

Perkins is under contract for THREE affordable seasons beyond this one, so it's going to be hard to find good comparables. Also means he might be just as likely to be dealt in the offseason, or next summer...

 

 

Those are the best returns for relievers moved midseason in the last three years. Perkins merits the top end of those deals.

 

Many trades suggested on these pages are better than a Grienke level deal (a 55 and another guy that would be a top 10 in most organizations).

 

There is little chance Ryan can come out of this looking good. He could get a better return for a reliever than any GM in the last three years and it won't be enough. He could keep Perkins and be blasted for not trading him at his peak.

 

Anyone would take a Segura and Hellweg for Perkins. Is it a reasonable expectation that any reliever would comp with a #1 starter?

 

It is possible and if Ryan gets a chance he will take that deal. The hard decision comes when the deal is closer to the the market rate for relievers the last three years.

[Dave T]

Having seen many, many bad closers, both here and elsewhere, I am not at all interested in trading Perkins. A good closer is hard to find. Perkins is the kind of blue-chip player you want to build around. Now, if another team knocks on our door with an offer we shouldn't refuse (e.g. the KC trade for Shields), well then OK.

[jimbo92107]

I would recommend cryogenic freezing until Sano, Buxton, Rosario, et al, are up and in their prime. However, the current state of the technology is such that freezing pops all your cells, turning your brain and body into mush. Thus, I don't recommend it for Glen Perkins. Maybe Terry Ryan?

 

Reluctantly I am forced to conclude that there's little chance Perkins will still be operating at a high level four or five years from now. For that reason I would consider trading him for Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Well, maybe a little less than that...How about Matt Moore and Matt Harvey? There must be a package out there...

[nicksaviking]

Having seen many, many bad closers, both here and elsewhere, I am not at all interested in trading Perkins.

 

But that's half the misunderstanding about closers. Who were the bad closers here specifically? Ron Davis 30 years ago? Did Eddie Guardado allow a ton of baserunners and make us sweat? Yes, regularly, but the results of the games would not be that much different had Mariano Rivera been pitching. I don't think the outcome of many games is actually affected by the closer.

 

25 pitchers have 15 or more saves. 1 has blown zero saves, 1 has blown six. Everyone else has blown a number in bewteen. There just isn't that much variance with the results when it comes to closers, it's more about opportunity.

[jmlease1]

It would have to be a pretty big deal for me to think it's a good idea. Normally, I'm all about flipping closers for prospects/every day help, but Perkins is actually on a contract that is a good one for a solid relief guy and is excellent for an elite one. Moreover, he's on that contract through the 2016 season.

 

Unless the Twins are overwhelmed by an offer, I don't see the urgency to sell high on him. It's doubtful anyone would be willing to give up a quality starting pitcher unless they're still an A-ball roll of the dice, which I might be interested in if Perk was going into the last year of his deal, but less than enthusiastic about with 3 years left.

 

The Twins would need to be getting a shortstop who is MLB-ready or a starting pitcher who is also close to really consider this.

[Smcginnity]

Having seen many, many bad closers, both here and elsewhere, I am not at all interested in trading Perkins. A good closer is hard to find. Perkins is the kind of blue-chip player you want to build around. Now, if another team knocks on our door with an offer we shouldn't refuse (e.g. the KC trade for Shields), well then OK.

 

Sorry Dave T, completely disagree. Good closers are NOT hard to find. Joe Nathan was a failed starter (mediocre player) and the Twins converted him to a closer. Eddie Guardado, failed starter. Glen Perkins, failed starter. We have plenty of these type of guys in the system that can be converted to closers. Jason Wheeler or Hudson Boyd are guys I could see eventually fitting that mold. Plus, we have Michael Tonkin and AJ Achter waiting for their opportunity as closers. Not even counting guys in the low minors such as Mason Melotakis, Zach Jones, Tyler Duffey, Brandon Peterson etc. that all used to be closers in college. Closers hard to find? not at all in my opinion. What's hard to find is a top-end starting pitcher. And if we can get one by trading a closer like Perkins, you MUST do it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sorry Dave T, completely disagree. Good closers are NOT hard to find. Joe Nathan was a failed starter (mediocre player) and the Twins converted him to a closer. Eddie Guardado, failed starter. Glen Perkins, failed starter. We have plenty of these type of guys in the system that can be converted to closers. Jason Wheeler or Hudson Boyd are guys I could see eventually fitting that mold. Plus, we have Michael Tonkin and AJ Achter waiting for their opportunity as closers. Not even counting guys in the low minors such as Mason Melotakis, Zach Jones, Tyler Duffey, Brandon Peterson etc. that all used to be closers in college. Closers hard to find? not at all in my opinion. What's hard to find is a top-end starting pitcher. And if we can get one by trading a closer like Perkins, you MUST do it.

 

Yeah, pretty much all of this.

 

Will it be hard to find a pitcher as good as Perkins? Probably. Given the ridiculous constraints put on closers by managers, do you need a pitcher as good as Perkins? Absolutely not.

[E. Andrew]

Nice article. I'd HATE to see him go, but business-wise, it makes perfect sense, and it'd be great to load another nice prospect into the system.

 

Also, there's this on the situation for those that missed it:

The Mets and Twins Should Remember Joakim Soria | FanGraphs Baseball