Rosethal: Uncertainy Swirling for Twins as Winter Meetings Approach

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I don't know if that's encouraging.  Help me figure out this equation:

60 win current roster + ??? (with little if any payroll increase, and possible a decrease) = 80-90 win roster  needed to "compete"  

Can you fill in the ???  

The Twins FO thought the 24 team was good enough to compete in the Central, so that's how they approached last offseason.  It is extremely alarming to hear them consider doing the same thing this offseason and expecting different results.  

I am extremely discouraged by this reporting.  It feels like the FO is as delusional as some of the fan base as to the quality of this roster.  It pains me to keep saying it but this is one of the worst rosters in the game. 

Consider the insanity of this statement:  "The Nationals front office believes the team is talented enough to compete in 2026."  If they actually said this they would get laughed out of the room.  The Twins were 3 games worse than the Nats after the deadline.    

 

I don’t see a 60 win team. Thats why. 

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t see a 60 win team. Thats why. 

I don't see a 60 win team either.  I am celebrating (on my 3rd Sud) hearing from reliable source they are not planning on trading Buxton, Lopez, or Ryan.  Plus, planning on adding to the roster.  Give me signings of Luis Arraez 1B and quality closer like Pete Fairbanks would be a strong start.  If Luis Arraez hits above .330, That will make up for lack of power at corner infield position. i think if he plays first base full-time.  He will be above average fielder.  He has good hands to be really good at catching throws in the dirt.   I'm old enough to have seen HOF Rod Carew play first base be an MVP and perirenal all-star.  So, I don't agree if you say he is bad signing due to lack of HRs.  I heard our new manager say he loves the talented SP arms he has available.  He, also, said the key to the Twins making a deep run in the play-offs.  Will be the development of the young position players.  He thinks with the help of coaching staff he has assemble it's very possible.  I'm with him, the central division is winnable.  Once, you get in the play-offs you got a chance.  Strong starting pitching is huge in short series.  I renewed my 40-game season ticket package for 2026.  Let's go Twins!

[Cory Engelhardt]

15 minutes ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

I don't see a 60 win team either.  I am celebrating (on my 3rd Sud) hearing from reliable source they are not planning on trading Buxton, Lopez, or Ryan.  Plus, planning on adding to the roster.  Give me signings of Luis Arraez 1B and quality closer like Pete Fairbanks would be a strong start.  If Luis Arraez hits above .330, That will make up for lack of power at corner infield position. i think if he plays first base full-time.  He will be above average fielder.  He has good hands to be really good at catching throws in the dirt.   I'm old enough to have seen HOF Rod Carew play first base be an MVP and perirenal all-star.  So, I don't agree if you say he is bad signing due to lack of HRs.  I heard our new manager say he loves the talented SP arms he has available.  He, also, said the key to the Twins making a deep run in the play-offs.  Will be the development of the young position players.  He thinks with the help of coaching staff he has assemble it's very possible.  I'm with him, the central division is winnable.  Once, you get in the play-offs you got a chance.  Strong starting pitching is huge in short series.  I renewed my 40-game season ticket package for 2026.  Let's go Twins!

See id be fine sending a prospect or 2 for Tristan Casas, taking a flier on a relief prospect in the rule 5 and then signing a couple more relief arms and calling it a day for now and seeing how development goes. I’d prefer to know more about SS defense and how Brooks Lee is going this offseason too. But just knowing they don’t have to gut more is a positive sign

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

If Lewis why not Julien or Clemens or Lee or Wallner or Larnach?

If Keaschall, why not Martin or Roden or Outman or Jenkins or Rodriguez or Gonzalez or Fitzgerald?

I may like Lewis and Keaschall quite a bit but they really have proven themsleves to this point. We know if Buxton is on the field he will be decent, we can't know that yet with any other guy. We hope though.

I have zero point zero hope for Outman to be anything positive.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, MileHighTwinsFan said:

You may not have liked it, but that is what he did.  He got out of a contract that was never going to pay off, traded a bunch of expiring contracts, and relief pitchers to bring in future starters, relievers, and MLB ready position players. The team was going nowhere, he knew it, and he took action.

Guys screaming Banzai waving swords charging machine guns took action too.

[nicksaviking]

Why is it that all of our bigger Twins bits this offseason, have come from NEW YORK?!? 

This is basically my only tin-foil hat topic, but OK, here it goes:

The Pohlad family rolls over their real estate losses on to the Twins to play funny tax games -- The Pohlads decide to sell the team for liquidity to pay off unrelated debts -- No one bites due to the funny tax games debt -- The Twins decide they'll get some liquidity for selling PART of the Twins -- A hedge fund licks it's lips, winks and says, "Oh yeah, we love businesses with losses; after our sister accounts short them" double wink and a lip pucker -- The Pohlads whisper to each other, "Is this legal, I feel dirty" -- A Pohlad advisor says, "Yeah, this looks real bad, you can't do this in public" -- A second well-liked and very attractive local investor knocks on the door and in a sultry voice, asks if they could buy a slice of the team -- The Pohlad advisor says, "OK, maybe you can do this in public, but no guarantees. And you guys have to keep your mouths shut and pretend you don't exist for four months." 

Meanwhile in a secret lair lined with the skulls of lost arbitration victims:

Joe Pohlad presents the new investors to the rest of the league -- Crickets -- Joe explains that with these investors, it will help the other billionaire owners, as it will make the Twins a more solvent team -- John W Henry asks Joe, "Do you know what the word solvent means?" -- Crickets -- Steve Cohen asks, "OK, can you at least tell us how this new ownership will lesson your burden on us in terms of revenue sharing?" -- Joe says, "Well your revenue sharing money will now be paying off less debt from our other businesses, like we've been having you do since COVID but forgot to tell you about. -- Crickets -- "And then we won't have to sell our team below market, which would lower the bar for all the rest of you -- Rob Manfred finally steps in and with a terrible James Cagney accent says, "We can't let these mooks shave dimes off of your teams' values, we'll approve these wise-guys" He then turns to Joe, "But you ain't passing off another IOU onto the rest of the owners and we're done with youse trying to rig the game, you're at least going back to top 20 in payola." -- After the Pohlads confer, Jim Pohlad tells the rest, "Our fans are already expecting a 60M payroll, plus all the East Coast reporters have already started reporting about our player sell off" -- Rob Manfred looks down at his boots and says, "Ken, stop shining, I have a story for you to write"

I mean, is there any doubt this is exactly what happened?!?!

[Woof Bronzer]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t see a 60 win team. Thats why. 

Fair enough although I guess I'd say whatever you "see" is fine, but factually speaking the current roster played at a 57 win clip after the trade deadline.  Whether or not that "feels" right, those are the actual results this roster has produced.  Results matter.  

Again, we've been through this before....literally last offseason.  Falvey "saw" a roster that was better than the actual performance of the team and decided to "run it back" and hope for better results.  But of course, maybe THIS time it'll work...

[Woof Bronzer]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

And yet a fair number of people believe the AL Central is within reach with this current roster. I will continue to hope for change.

"The Chicago White Sox front office believes their roster can compete for the Central next year" still sounds bonkers.  And yet the Sox were a few games better than the Twins post-deadline.  

[Woof Bronzer]

3 hours ago, MileHighTwinsFan said:

You may not have liked it, but that is what he did.  He got out of a contract that was never going to pay off, traded a bunch of expiring contracts, and relief pitchers to bring in future starters, relievers, and MLB ready position players. The team was going nowhere, he knew it, and he took action.

They went from around a 75 win team to a 57 win team in 2 months after he "improved" the team. If his plan was to make the 25 team better he failed spectacularly, and quite possibly pulled off the worst trade deadline of any team in the history of the sport.  

For his sake I hope he was lying!  

[Vanimal46]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This is the same quote, verbatum, from each of the last two offseasons.

Without change, which does not mean trading any of the three guys, the Twins are at maximum a 75 win team. Worse yet, their style of play might remain the same: poor defense, slow on the bases, and difficulty hitting with runners on base. Pray for change.

Most people want to be spoon fed positive spin in the offseason. I’m used to that in spring training when everyone is in the best shape of their lives. But now it’s spilling into the offseason. That turns me off since pretending the owners aren’t actively slashing salary is being labeled as pessimistic doomer. 

Oh well. I’ll listen to my weekly episode of Gleeman and the Geek and SKOR North Twins show and keep my opinions to myself. 

 

[Whitey333]

Well we have gotten 3 different views from different national noted baseball insiders just within the past couple of weeks. Who do you believe?  Galveys greatest asset is selling snow in the wintertime.  You can't believe much of anything he says.  IMO if the don't trade some of those players now when their value may be at its peak it's a huge mistake.  If you then aren't going to add significant pieces to your team then it's a huge mistake.  Way too many holes to fill.  Way too much "if" mentality.  Running back the same team will be a disaster.

[Jeff K]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Agree with much of what you say, but none of these players are established players in my opinion and thus not what I would call "core" guys. Way too many ifs to every name. 

The players I have the most confidence in to perform in 2026 if given the chance are: Keaschall, Jenkins, Gonzalez (DH), and Culpepper. This will draw ire and disagreement but that is just one person's opinion. I'm not ready to call any of these guys core players though. Ton of ifs in that short list.

Those are the guys I think have the best chance of being good players.

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

And yet a fair number of people believe the AL Central is within reach with this current roster. I will continue to hope for change.

Have you seen the other AL central rosters? Someone could win the central with 82 wins.

[LewFordLives]

I sincerely wish that they keep Ryan, Lopez, and Buxton.  I don't believe in rebuilds. They rarely amount to anything but a decade of misery. There is talent on this team. Ownership and the front office owe it to the fans to build around what they have and field a competitive product, no matter the payroll.

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Have you seen the other AL central rosters? Someone could win the central with 82 wins.

The Twins were by far the healthiest team in the AL Central last season with Detroit players missing more than double the number of days than the Twins. 

We cannot know how the rosters will line up in April of 2026, but Detroit and Kansas City are expected to add talent. MN, CLE, and the White Sox are up in the air at this time. If one lines up the rosters right now, the Twins are battling the Chicago team for the bottom of the ALC. It is true that no current ALC  roster is seen as running away from the others in the division but unless changes are made it is difficult to ignore last season's results.

[MGX]

12 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Fair enough although I guess I'd say whatever you "see" is fine, but factually speaking the current roster played at a 57 win clip after the trade deadline.  Whether or not that "feels" right, those are the actual results this roster has produced.  Results matter.  

Again, we've been through this before....literally last offseason.  Falvey "saw" a roster that was better than the actual performance of the team and decided to "run it back" and hope for better results.  But of course, maybe THIS time it'll work...

The team that played at a 57 win clip featured a bullpen consisting of names like - Erasmo Ramirez, Jose Urena, Genesis Cabrera, Noah Davis, Brooks Kriske, Thomas Hatch, should I go on. Apologies, but I'm not putting much stock in that 57 win clip the last two months.

With that said they can't completely rely on Sands & converted starters to fill that void. They may get a couple of successes, but signing at least one proven high leverage reliever would help a lot. If they won't even do that then it's hard to believe they truly have a plan to compete this season.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, MGX said:

The team that played at a 57 win clip featured a bullpen consisting of names like - Erasmo Ramirez, Jose Urena, Genesis Cabrera, Noah Davis, Brooks Kriske, Thomas Hatch, should I go on. Apologies, but I'm not putting much stock in that 57 win clip the last two months.

With that said they can't completely rely on Sands & converted starters to fill that void. They may get a couple of successes, but signing at least one proven high leverage reliever would help a lot. If they won't even do that then it's hard to believe they truly have a plan to compete this season.

There were people who wondered why the Twins used the above relief pitchers. It is impossible (for me) to know who will actually be in the bullpen in April of 2026. Of course i have tried to guess. That said, if one looks at the struggles of a number of relief pitchers within the Twins minor league system it is at least minimally possible that the list of guys above are equal to the fellows throwing next April and May. I sure hope not and will expect better but I find it difficult to sort out a plan at this time. 

A few people have written that we need to listen to what Falvey says. I try to keep hoping for something better and have not had my hopes met for the last several offseasons. But i keep hoping. Falvey keeps saying the team is talented enough right now. And so it goes.

[Twinsrtheworst]

On 12/5/2025 at 4:54 PM, MileHighTwinsFan said:

Thank you! Falvey has been saying this for weeks, but no one took him at his word. So maybe now we can put all this trade chatter and doomsaying to rest. 

That would be nice, but now those that make a living off reporting rumors will move on to asking us if we should trade Jeffers, Emma, or insert players name.

[tony&rodney]

14 minutes ago, se7799 said:

That would be nice, but now those that make a living off reporting rumors will move on to asking us if we should trade Jeffers, Emma, or insert players name.

Does this mean you think the Twins current roster is of championship quality? Are you opposed to making changes or trading any of the Twins players? What does your 2026 Twins team look like? I'm curious about how different people put together a roster.

[Woof Bronzer]

11 hours ago, MGX said:

The team that played at a 57 win clip featured a bullpen consisting of names like - Erasmo Ramirez, Jose Urena, Genesis Cabrera, Noah Davis, Brooks Kriske, Thomas Hatch, should I go on. Apologies, but I'm not putting much stock in that 57 win clip the last two months.

With that said they can't completely rely on Sands & converted starters to fill that void. They may get a couple of successes, but signing at least one proven high leverage reliever would help a lot. If they won't even do that then it's hard to believe they truly have a plan to compete this season.

Sure, building the bullpen would help.  How do you do that with at best a minimal payroll increase, and more likely a decrease?  Trade bad relievers for better ones?  Good luck.  Trade hitters for relievers?  Now you've got to add more offense without adding payroll.  

[Brandon]

On 12/5/2025 at 12:35 PM, Cory Engelhardt said:

This article by Rosenthal, I know we are heavy in rumor season, but it is actually pretty encouraging.

 

1) Minnesota's goal is to keep Buxton, Lopez and Ryan and build around them to compete in 2026

2) "Club officials believe the team is talented enough to compete in the AL Central...And now that they have clarity from ownership, they believe they have "mild flexibility" to make additions.

3) The Twins need bullpen help after trading most of their relievers at the deadline and possibly a 1st baseman.

 

4.  A back up SS/IF.  Is needed too.  
 

If we sign a 1B then the Twins could trade Larnarch.  There are three top prospect OF about ready to emerge.  Rhodes and Martin can platoon for a month or so till one of them warrants a call up.  

[old nurse]

On 12/5/2025 at 8:22 PM, Parfigliano said:

I have zero point zero hope for Outman to be anything positive.

when they traded for him, i don't think they expected anything out of him either. They  left him in the minors in favor Rodon and Martin 

[Twinsrtheworst]

22 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Does this mean you think the Twins current roster is of championship quality? Are you opposed to making changes or trading any of the Twins players? What does your 2026 Twins team look like? I'm curious about how different people put together a roster.

All great questions and I appreciate you asking.  We definitely do not have a championship roster, but a possible low seed playoff roster. I would be open to trading Ryan for the right guy.  But I’m not to enthusiastic about trading for prospects in a rebuild with 2 years of control. I just don’t see teams willing to part with the elite of the elite prospects in return. I 100 percent expect our development department to improve, and expect we will see this right away starting in spring training routines.Gathered from various conversations, I believe we will begin to perform and the past couple years of underachieving will be a thing of the past or yes there will be a new front office in place by start of 2027.  I havnt enough information to put together a roster yet, but soon.  I also expect a payroll over 120m.  I don’t see replacing the entire front office, Burton, Lopez, Ryan and Rocco in less than 12 months as anything the owners would ever consider. So these rumors of trading all 3 guys before the season starts?  Honestly not even at the rumor level because it’s not being considered by the powers that be. Just reckless speculation by others. I always enjoy your insight on here so ty, Sorry I’m always late to these Conversations on TD.

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, se7799 said:

All great questions and I appreciate you asking.  We definitely do not have a championship roster, but a possible low seed playoff roster. I would be open to trading Ryan for the right guy.  But I’m not to enthusiastic about trading for prospects in a rebuild with 2 years of control. I just don’t see teams willing to part with the elite of the elite prospects in return. I 100 percent expect our development department to improve, and expect we will see this right away starting in spring training routines.Gathered from various conversations, I believe we will begin to perform and the past couple years of underachieving will be a thing of the past or yes there will be a new front office in place by start of 2027.  I havnt enough information to put together a roster yet, but soon.  I also expect a payroll over 120m.  I don’t see replacing the entire front office, Burton, Lopez, Ryan and Rocco in less than 12 months as anything the owners would ever consider. So these rumors of trading all 3 guys before the season starts?  Honestly not even at the rumor level because it’s not being considered by the powers that be. Just reckless speculation by others. I always enjoy your insight on here so ty, Sorry I’m always late to these Conversations on TD.

Thanks. I put up 3 different GM Tool rosters, the last of which was more "tongue in cheek" due to the $50M payroll. Trading all didn't ever seem realistic but I can see one team coming with a ridiculously high offer, which would be tough to turn down. Additionally there are always options on the fringes to add players via free agency or trades. Status quo cannot be an option. 

There are two ways I see improvement. One is via propsects such as Jenkins. I think he is ready and I believe the coaches know that. Secondly, I believe in the new people brought aboard in the dugout.

[Twinsrtheworst]

20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Thanks. I put up 3 different GM Tool rosters, the last of which was more "tongue in cheek" due to the $50M payroll. Trading all didn't ever seem realistic but I can see one team coming with a ridiculously high offer, which would be tough to turn down. Additionally there are always options on the fringes to add players via free agency or trades. Status quo cannot be an option. 

There are two ways I see improvement. One is via propsects such as Jenkins. I think he is ready and I believe the coaches know that. Secondly, I believe in the new people brought aboard in the dugout.

I agree 100 percent with you on Jenkins playing a part in our improvement even if it starts in June as opposed to opening day.  He is ready from my POV as well.  I see Emma, Connor, Raya all as having an impact next year as well amongst quite a few others that are near ready or ready mid season barring injuries of course.  We still havnt seen the best of Lee and I know he is working his A off this offseason..  I still am a big believer in Lewis and will see his true colors this year in a leadership role as well. I know you watch a lot of baseball, same here. I love MIlbtv and make sure to attend every affiliate for games as well. If we can get things moving the right direction next season, which I believe will happen. And hopefully the team can maintain a solid fan base. I hate making predictions because everything is fluid. But we are going to be more than pleasantly surprised going into 2027 and do not need to rip it down to the studs to get there..  I also agree if a desperate team comes in needing a pitcher and will make a desperate offer, we’ll take it.  I just don’t see that until the deadline or next offseason. I will check out the GM roster tool, thanks.

[Greglw3]

On 12/5/2025 at 7:22 PM, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

I don't see a 60 win team either.  I am celebrating (on my 3rd Sud) hearing from reliable source they are not planning on trading Buxton, Lopez, or Ryan.  Plus, planning on adding to the roster.  Give me signings of Luis Arraez 1B and quality closer like Pete Fairbanks would be a strong start.  If Luis Arraez hits above .330, That will make up for lack of power at corner infield position. i think if he plays first base full-time.  He will be above average fielder.  He has good hands to be really good at catching throws in the dirt.   I'm old enough to have seen HOF Rod Carew play first base be an MVP and perirenal all-star.  So, I don't agree if you say he is bad signing due to lack of HRs.  I heard our new manager say he loves the talented SP arms he has available.  He, also, said the key to the Twins making a deep run in the play-offs.  Will be the development of the young position players.  He thinks with the help of coaching staff he has assemble it's very possible.  I'm with him, the central division is winnable.  Once, you get in the play-offs you got a chance.  Strong starting pitching is huge in short series.  I renewed my 40-game season ticket package for 2026.  Let's go Twins!

I agree wholeheartedly. Signing Arraez back would be the best thing they could do and I, too, saw Rod Carew and the havoc he wreaked with high batting averages. Arraez has hit .354 for a whole season, a rare accomplishment.