Arbitrary Thoughts: Ryan Jeffers

[Matthew Lenz]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Last week, MLB Trade Rumors released their arbitration projections for the 2026 season. Jeffers stands to be the highest paid arbitration-eligible player with a projected salary of $6.6 million in his third and final round of arbitration. In his first two rounds, he made $2.425 million and $4.55 million, and grossly outperformed those salaries according to FanGraphs Value metric. While his home run power seemingly disappeared in 2025, it stands to reason that Jeffers projected arbitration salary for 2026 is well below the production level we’ve come to expect from the Twins only big league caliber catcher.

Ryan Jeffers’ 2025 season was largely productive, ranking as his second-best with a .752 OPS and a 113 wRC+, meaning he performed 13% better than the average hitter. He also posted career-best rates for walks (10.8%) and strikeouts (19.6%). The primary issue was a significant power regression, as he hit only nine home runs—a steep drop from the 35 combined in the previous two years - resulting in a career-low isolated power (iso) of .131. This was attributed to a decline in quality of contact, evidenced by a career-low 6.3% barrel rate, despite an above-average hard-hit rate (42.1%).

Jeffers altered his approach, adopting a deeper, more open stance to target the inner part of the zone and generate pull-side power. This change, however, was unsuccessful; his bat speed dropped (from 73.9 mph to 72.3 mph), and he pulled the ball less while hitting to the opposite field more. This led to decreased quality of contact and fewer pulled fly balls. Again, I don't want to undermine the fact he was still an above average hitter in 2025, though, the under-the-hood metrics suggests that a return to the more balanced approach seen in his 2023 season is necessary to maximize his future value.

Defensively, Jeffers continues to display poor framing, blocking, and throwing data. Three years under the tutelage of teammate Christian Vázquez has technically resulted in improvement in these areas, though he continues to produce a negative run value behind the plate. At this point in his career, it’s pretty safe to say that Jeffers will continue to be a below-average catcher moving forward. However, the implementation of the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS) in 2026, may help in mitigating the negative impact he has on defense. While it remains to be seen, we can speculate that the ABS will reduce the impact framing has on the game inherently improving Jeffers’ defensive value.

So, should the Twins tender Jeffers a contract? Simply put - yes. If for no other reason, the Twins don't have another player in their organization ready to take over primary catching duties at the big league level. Moreover, they don't have anyone ready to serve even as a back-up catcher to Jeffers. However, it's not just a matter of Hobson’s choice, Jeffers has been one of the most productive and durable catchers in all of baseball. There's no reason to suggest that will change in 2026. Even if the Twins (read: Pohlads) wanted to shed his salary, they would be remiss to nontender him instead of tendering and trading him.

 

Multiple projection systems predict that Jeffers will sustain his productivity in 2026. We'll be watching to see if Jeffers continues to evolve his plate approach after his last three seasons, and what his 2026 productivity looks like. Will he return to his more powerful production from 2023 and 2024, or will he continue to trade power for contact and patience like in 2025?

 

However he approaches 2026, Jeffers will be one of the easier arbitration decisions for the Twins to make. Tendering him a contract is an absolute no-brainer.

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[jmlease1]

Quote

At this point in his career, it’s pretty safe to say that Jeffers will continue to be a below-average catcher moving forward.

Defensively, that's possibly true, but the fact that he hits at or above a league average level makes him a viable catcher. Catchers that can hit are few and far between these days, Cal Raleigh not withstanding. But this was the first season since his rookie year in 2020 that Jeffers put up a negative defensive bWAR, so there's also a possibility that this season was a bit of a statistical fluke and he could bounce back.

Either way, he's still an easy tender.

I was a little surprised that he didn't get moved at the deadline and that there was reportedly no market for him. But maybe other teams are looking at him more like Mr. Lenz seems to be and predicting further degradation in his catching and hitting.

[LewFordLives]

"...the Twins don't have another player in their organization ready to take over primary catching duties..."

That's really the crux of the situation. They could probably trade him for a couple second tier prospects, but is that worth having zero legit options at catcher?  If the season really goes sour they could always trade him in July.

[DJL44]

I hope they give Jeffers a 3 year contract this offseason.

[NYCTK]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I hope they give Jeffers a 3 year contract this offseason.

I think an extension would be wise, and if not, they should try to trade him. Unfortunately for the Twins, the C trade market might be oversaturated with both Rutschman and Murphy potentially on the block. 

[PatPfund]

Glad there wasn't a 'why they don't tender him' section, because this one is as clear cut as it gets. One defensive skill not mentioned (partly because it has never been measured yet) is the ability to challenge pitches in the new system. I remember (qualitatively) Jeffers was really good at that last spring. Whether good compared to other catchers is yet to be seen, but we'll see it next year with Jeffers in a Twins uniform either way.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have been quite fortunate to get through the past three years with Jeffers and Vazquez. Vazquez is a FA and  Jeffers has one more year before he is a FA. A base decision on Jeffers is totally dependent on whether the team adds catchers. There is bound to be a fair amount of interest from clubs in adding Jeffers via trade because he will not be too costly and is sure to be a quality catcher in 2027. 

What do the Twins do about Ryan Jeffers? Surely he is offered arbitration. Then the Twins need to look far and wide to add a minimum of one catcher to their roster. After adding a body, the Twins can entertain conversations with teams about Jeffers. A decent return is worth considering. A good return is worth acting on. The Twins will not be AL Central leaders next season and thus it makes sense to seek a good offer. Lacking a solid return, Jeffers is the Twins primary catcher next season and he may boost his stock quite a bit if he starts 110-125 games behind the plate and delivers his normal production. 

I see Ryan Jeffers as a win-win-win situation. Trade him for value, keep him for major playing time, and Jeffers boosts his FA market through his play.

[Doctor Gast]

There is no doubt that Jeffers is worthy to be tendered a contract. Will he be or should he be traded? Are other questions. Will he be? Tough to say with Falvey. Should he be? Yes, he should be. Boras is his agent & Boras is against extensions; Falvey normally trades away players before they hit FA, getting something instead of nothing. Let's say Jeffers wants to stay, but wants a big extension. Sometimes Falvey does extend players he shouldn't & overpays them (Paddock case in point). Falvey has done nothing to compensate for losing both Vazquez & Jeffers, so to cover his behind again. I can see him paying the exorbitant Boras extension.

I don't want to disappoint my fan club by stating that Jeffers always gets worn down in the 2nd half. Defensively, he's more challenged, so it goes to show that his defense suffers more. IMO, Fangraph is much better at calculating defensive WAR than BR & Jeffers has had negative defensive WAR his last 3 years, so it's not an anomaly. I was impressed with Jeffers that he seemed less worn down than usual this year.

IMO, the challenge ABS won't change much as far as framing, you only get 3 challenges. So catchers will still try to steal strikes on a steady  basis & it'll still be important to teams.

[Nashvilletwin]

1. Twins young catching depth is probably 6-18 months away.

2. Via arbitration, Jeffers can be resigned relatively cheaply for one more season.  Then he is a FA.

3. Jeffers is unlikely going to be a good fit with the Twins post the ‘27 lockout. The exception is if he stays around in the Vasquez type role.

Conclusion: The Twins offer Jeffers arbitration and resign him for one season.  Someone needs to catch. Then, if the younger pups are getting playable, he gets moved at the deadline.

[mikelink45]

I will be so happy if the new electronic strike zone gets rid of the ridiculous "framing".  It is just legalized cheating.  Let's move forward.  The biggest question for me is his arm strength, speed, and accuracy as we are seeing a rebound in SB.  Otherwise are we looking at a duo of Gaspar and Paredes?  Yikes.  

[DocBauer]

I state my opinion on Jeffers with no attempt to change anyone else's opinion on him. We're way beyond that. But I like him behind the plate. Are there better defensive catchers according to measurements? Of course there are. But I like the way he calls a game and handles the staff. That's #1 in my books. Over the past 3yrs he and Vazquez are almost dead even in team ERA and CS%. I don't say that to downgrade Vazquez, who I have great respect for, but merely to point out that the better receiver isn't as far ahead as others and certain measurements say he is. 

I'd like to see a better balance of the numbers he improved on last season and a return od his power. But since his debut, I believe he still ranks in the top 5 of OPS for catchers who have at least 200 AB, or something similar. Maybe that changed in 2025, but his offense is still above league average, and well above what we generally see from the catching position.

Of course you tender him. And then you have to spend $3-4M for some sort of decent backup, though I'm predicting he starts something like 60-65% of the games in 2026. He's young enough and strong enough to handle that, IMO, if it's 2 days on, 1 day off.

If the season goes in the tank, I believe you could see if there's trade value at the deadline. But I don't know that you get enough back vs what he brings to the Twins. Maybe someone like Cardenas looks ready to contribute by then.

I believe his agent is Boras. So while I'd like to see a 2yr extension through 2028...when Diaw and Tait may be ready...I'm betting it takes at least 3yrs to get it done. A solid 3yrs and $30, though it might have to be a little more dollar wise. That puts him back on the market at 31yo. Young enough for another deal if he doesn't collapse. 

An extension doesn't break the bank, fills a major need that doesn't have anyone else ready, and doesn't force the Twins in to a prospect laden deal for a replacement. I just don't know if it's doable, but I'd like to see it happen.

[tony&rodney]

21 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Twins young catching depth is probably 6-18 months away.

Do you think Noah Cardenas is 6-18 months away? I'm wondering who you are thinking about. 

There have been conversations about bringing Christian Vazquez back. A few have wondered if the Twins can limp through next season using Gasper or Pereda too. Vazquez might be possible, but it seems unlikely depending on the dollars. The other two don't seem like fits going forward. Who did you have in mind, "young catchers"?

[JD-TWINS]

I like trying to sign Vazquez (or Vazquez like) or another FA to catch 80 games. Paredes catches 60 games. Jeffers stays competent and adds roster flexibility while catching 22 games (3-4 per month). He can DH after he catches to keep his bat in the line-up as MGR chooses. He’s the principal at 1B, playing 100 games there.

I think with lighter defensive load and a bit of tweaking his HR power returns. Gotta be realistic on the HR comments, he “averaged” 17 per year previous two seasons and fell back to 8 or 9. He was out with injury a bit which, I assume, reduced his AB’s in ‘25? Didn’t fall off a cliff!

I like his size/strength & general durability! His strikeout % being under 20% is a good sign as well. 10% walks - good rate! Gotta sign him & IF there’s a 3 year deal to be made, go for it from TWINS perspective.