Firing Rocco Baldelli is Moving Deck Chairs on Twins Titanic, and the Pohlads Sank the Lifeboats

[PatPfund]

This is a pretty whiny article written in the frustration of team-sellus-interruptus. I am no fan of the Pohlads, but... Who has provided their AL Central team with the most financial resources of the past few years? The Pohlads. The front office has had a bunch of hit and miss, but guess what? Almost everybody's does. One the OP missed in its bitterness was getting Austin Martin (not our draft pick, FYI) and SWR for Berríos; not popular at the time but Martin was the highlight of the second half (after Rocco both played him and stopped trying to turn him into another Castro), and SWR was almost a full game up on Berríos this year (while being a half dozen years younger). A big miss? Manuel Margot, but I'm pretty sure it was Rocco sending him up to pinch hit so many times he set the MLB record for pinch futility. Good managers can make a huge difference in how teams play, and changing managers now is the proper first move.

[Doctor Gast]

This is what I posted before Baldelli got fired.

"Small market teams like MIL & CLE have shown us the way to operate as a small/ mid-sized market. Which of . Falvey's weird analytical philosophies are the complete opposite. Philosophies that are ignorant of what is going on in the league, focusing on cold, hard data. Void of any human considerations like character, heart, & instincts. Void of any human underlying conditions like injuries or if the league hasn't or has adjusted to you. Void of fundamentals like defense, baserunning & bunting. Void of proper coaching instructions. Player evaluations that is based on if you hit their way or you are acquired by Falvey, then you have unlimited opportunities & none if you aren't. Beyond this, Falvey doesn't have the ability to initiate & close on an essential trade. IMO, Falvey doesn't really listen to anyone (including players) if they don't fit into his scheme of things. All this takes the heart & soul out of the team. Which became more & more obvious after Falvey failed to add to the '23 successful playoff core."

Falvey loves Baldelli, that's why he extended him. But delusional Falvey & Pohlads got together because, to their surprise, the seasonal tickets aren't being sold. Fans weren't buying their Kool-Aid that they solved the problem by selling off the core which was (in their opinion) the problem. Falvey & the Pohlads are our saviors so the problem wasn't them, so they had to pick another scapegoat. Baldelli was their last sacrificial lamb.

I'd like to point to SF. They had a baseball President of Baseball Opps. much like Falvey, which prioritizes analytics far above everything else. Their owner rightfully listened to their loyal fans & former players & canned this guy & set in Buster Posey. The team took off this season but could not sustain it because Posey failed to clean house below him & gave Bob Melvin a chance to redeem himself. He could not & was rightfully fired. 

Baldelli was fired due to poor ticket sales. I ask the Baldelli haters not to succumb to purchasing their season tickets yet because Falvey will hire another Baldelli or even worse. I assume that Bob Melvin is one of the top candidates others are Falvey's yes men, that'll be worse. IF we hold out my hope is they'll wake up & Pohlads sells or at least replace Falvey for a baseball smart head of opps. If this doesn't change, nothing will change.

[AKTwinsFan]

Part of the success is having consistent playing time. With Baldellis constant changes in the lineups and batting orders no players really had consistent success. I think 1-5 should stay the same with minor tweaks throughout the season, and 6-9 small platoon changes. It matters to players having repetition and consistency. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

26 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Brock, I keep hearing this but not sure where it is coming from.  I did see that Falvey said that he would help the next manager select his coaches, but I've never read or heard (other than this site) that he definitely selected or had major input into Rocco's coaches.  Can you please provide a source?

Funny you ask because in the latest Gleeman and the Geek Patreon episode, Aaron said what I said almost verbatim.

I don’t have a direct source, but it’s widely understood that Baldelli wasn’t making that kind of decision given how the entire organization is structured. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I don't believe this for a minute. Where is the money going? They have run payrolls every season far below what the league gives them in revenue sharing. They would have to be the most mismanaged team in professional sports to run up that much debt out of operating budgets. I think it is far more likely that the Twins are taking out loans from Northmarq (their other business) to move money from one set of books to the other.

 

The Atlanta Braves’ books are a little more open than most teams. Their luxury tax payroll in 23 was 276 million. Their total expenses were 505 million which means everything else with the club cost 230 million.  The same year a Pittsburg beat writer got access and found that the club had operating expenses of 171 million. Somewhere in between would be the Twins.  In 20 and 21 they did not lay anyone off despite no or decreased fans and revenue. It is entirely possible for the Twins to have run up that much debt.

[old nurse]

44 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Brock, I keep hearing this but not sure where it is coming from.  I did see that Falvey said that he would help the next manager select his coaches, but I've never read or heard (other than this site) that he definitely selected or had major input into Rocco's coaches.  Can you please provide a source?

Perhaps you can provide a source that specifically says that Baldelli would be the one hiring coaches when they were hired.  

[David HK]

This transaction means nothing unless Falvey follows him out the door.  For all of Rocco's foibles as a manager, the FO has precipitated far more damage, and in an even more profound way.

The real tragedy remains, however, that there is no one who can fire the stinking pohlad family.

[JD-TWINS]

Stewart - Coulombe - Cruz - Santana - Correa - France - Bader….. all thought of in 15 seconds of no research…….FA’s that delivered.

No FO “consistently wins one sided trades”….that’s silly.

Your depth of knowledge and expectations is weak, IMO.

Payroll: $124M in ‘21 - $134M in ‘22 - $154M in ‘23 (playoff series win) - Correa had been  signed to big $$ contract and Ownership cuts payroll to $129M in ‘24 & Lopez contract kicked up in $$ (2 guys made-up 41% of player spend) - $131M in ‘25.

The “hope” is that the Organization can spend $125M in ‘26 with some in press thinking it may not be $100M……….my point is without the forward knowledge on spending cuts and no knowledge of them until the commitment was made on Correa, how does Falvey operate? He’s not a magician! Nobody signs a guy to pay him $35M and then cuts payroll total by $35 at the same time!!!

Other Teams succeed with low payrolls - sure - but the President/GM have knowledge of spending expectations from ownership before CUTS are made.

Correa’s $35M was 27% of the total spend in ‘24………. the player spend budget from ‘23 to ‘24 was reduced by 16.5%………both of these are kind of difficult to plan around with no knowledge spending was going to be slashed!!!!!

Keep the guys now on roster and give Falvey $40M to spend (back to 2022 spending) - do it by mid-October & Team will be back in the playoffs in ‘26.

[Finlander]

Baldelli didn't assemble the roster. Losing so many second half games in the last 4 innings is no surprise after trading away nearly the entire bullpen at the deadline. Earl Weaver or Tony La Russa couldn't have won with that pen.

While Rocco's decision making could appear weird at times, I think the accountability hook seems a little misplaced, or at least incompletely applied.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Agree with your conclusion but not your premise. A lot of the prospects came up and were good or pretty great right away-Julien, Kiriloff, Wallner, Lewis, Miranda, Keaschell, Sano, etc. But then either the pitchers adjusted and they didn't adjust back or the league figured out holes in their swings and confidence cratered. Julien finished 7th in ROY voting and is now worthless. Miranda- expected to be a middle of the order bat, also worthless. Lewis was incredible for his first two injured riddled seasons (2022-2023). Keaschell is the only one who hasn't slowed down yet, which is encouraging. Martin looks to be figuring it out after a slow start.  

Theoretically it should be easier to hit in the minors than the majors, and a lot of guys are great players in AAA but never figure it out at the MLB level. The fact that the Twins have had a lot of guys who had some success at the MLB level but couldn't sustain it suggests some other issue with coaching or development. 

What I look at is the prospects coming up through other teams and their progression.  Some don't make it, but so many more do than the percent or Twins prospects.

[Danchat]

5 hours ago, Reptevia said:

The fact that all these prospects were good in the minors but it ends under Rocco ‘s (and his hand-picked staff) says it does matter who the manager is. They have not taken one position player prospect and turned him into MLB quality. Did the FO miss on EVERY pick?  Fire the entire FO. 

The majority of MLB prospects that play well in the minors struggle in the majors... I don't think it's unreasonable to say that the FO missed on almost every pick. Are there former Twins draft picks excelling elsewhere when they failed here? Brent Rooker, Lamont Wade... any others? Their pitching prospects have a rough record and that has nothing to do with Rocco.

Rocco didn't help develop any of these guys so it's worthwhile to find someone who can do the job better, but it's not on the manager when prospects come up with broken fielding skills and aren't used to playing a certain position that they ultimately get moved to. Just because a prospect is hitting well in the minors doesn't mean he is being developed well. It's a system issue, he could have mitigated it better but these prospects shouldn't be coming out of the pipeline broken.

[JD-TWINS]

44 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

This is what I posted before Baldelli got fired.

"Small market teams like MIL & CLE have shown us the way to operate as a small/ mid-sized market. Which of . Falvey's weird analytical philosophies are the complete opposite. Philosophies that are ignorant of what is going on in the league, focusing on cold, hard data. Void of any human considerations like character, heart, & instincts. Void of any human underlying conditions like injuries or if the league hasn't or has adjusted to you. Void of fundamentals like defense, baserunning & bunting. Void of proper coaching instructions. Player evaluations that is based on if you hit their way or you are acquired by Falvey, then you have unlimited opportunities & none if you aren't. Beyond this, Falvey doesn't have the ability to initiate & close on an essential trade. IMO, Falvey doesn't really listen to anyone (including players) if they don't fit into his scheme of things. All this takes the heart & soul out of the team. Which became more & more obvious after Falvey failed to add to the '23 successful playoff core."

Falvey loves Baldelli, that's why he extended him. But delusional Falvey & Pohlads got together because, to their surprise, the seasonal tickets aren't being sold. Fans weren't buying their Kool-Aid that they solved the problem by selling off the core which was (in their opinion) the problem. Falvey & the Pohlads are our saviors so the problem wasn't them, so they had to pick another scapegoat. Baldelli was their last sacrificial lamb.

I'd like to point to SF. They had a baseball President of Baseball Opps. much like Falvey, which prioritizes analytics far above everything else. Their owner rightfully listened to their loyal fans & former players & canned this guy & set in Buster Posey. The team took off this season but could not sustain it because Posey failed to clean house below him & gave Bob Melvin a chance to redeem himself. He could not & was rightfully fired. 

Baldelli was fired due to poor ticket sales. I ask the Baldelli haters not to succumb to purchasing their season tickets yet because Falvey will hire another Baldelli or even worse. I assume that Bob Melvin is one of the top candidates others are Falvey's yes men, that'll be worse. IF we hold out my hope is they'll wake up & Pohlads sells or at least replace Falvey for a baseball smart head of opps. If this doesn't change, nothing will change.

They won a playoff series in ‘23 with same Manager & GM. They were on the rise. Agreed??

Payroll went from $124M - $134M - $154M from ‘21 - ‘23. Agreed?

Lopez salary increases in ‘24 per contract & CC was set to make $35M. OWNERSHIP CUTS PAYROLL from $154M down to $129M in ‘24. Agreed? (16.5%) ……pretty tough to add to the ‘23 core under these circumstances!!

Based on previous trend with Ownership over  3 years, the FO’s expectation for budget planning in ‘23 wasn’t “…….we’ll probably cut payroll total next year by 16.5%”. Agreed?

Can’t run a sports franchise nor an IT company nor a manufacturing company if Management doesn’t have a view for spending expectations from Ownership out 2-5 years…….at least a general feel. Can’t decimate the budget for labor/talent and then, after the fact, have analysts compare the company’s results to competitors that have historically spent less in your industry. Agreed?

Has Falvey & regime been great? - maybe not. Was Baldelli a perfect Manager? - no. ………Should OWNERSHIP DECISIONS be blamed for 75% + (IMO) of the decline over the past 2 seasons? - certainly!

Injuries and players not playing to just average/norm expectations have been (IMO) 20% of Team’s issues.

Those two percentages added doesn’t leave a lot of blame to go around for FO & Field Mgmt.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

One the OP missed in its bitterness was getting Austin Martin (not our draft pick, FYI) and SWR for Berríos; not popular at the time but Martin was the highlight of the second half (after Rocco both played him and stopped trying to turn him into another Castro),

It has been a positive trade given it was for 1.5 years of control of Berrios... but it has been disappointing to see that it took 4 years after the trade to get replacement level or better play from Martin in the majors. Their plan to develop him into a MLB hitter should not have taken this long and I put that more on the organization than the player.

[SteveLV]

I would be curious to know how much salary (and bonuses and other compensation) Joe Pohlad and other family members take out of the Twins budget every year.  I suspect it is a pretty healthy number.

I would also be quite curious as to where the half billion in debt came from (or money went).

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

The Atlanta Braves’ books are a little more open than most teams. Their luxury tax payroll in 23 was 276 million. Their total expenses were 505 million which means everything else with the club cost 230 million.  The same year a Pittsburg beat writer got access and found that the club had operating expenses of 171 million. Somewhere in between would be the Twins.  In 20 and 21 they did not lay anyone off despite no or decreased fans and revenue. It is entirely possible for the Twins to have run up that much debt.

Why would the Twins be the only team running up $500M in debt? The Pirates have all the same disadvantages as the Twins and they don't claim to have that much debt. Average MLB revenue is $430M per team. With a $140M payroll that leaves $250M to run operations even if they're 10% below league average in revenue. Are the Twins running more expensive operations than the Braves?

[JD-TWINS]

35 minutes ago, Danchat said:

The majority of MLB prospects that play well in the minors struggle in the majors... I don't think it's unreasonable to say that the FO missed on almost every pick. Are there former Twins draft picks excelling elsewhere when they failed here? Brent Rooker, Lamont Wade... any others? Their pitching prospects have a rough record and that has nothing to do with Rocco.

Rocco didn't help develop any of these guys so it's worthwhile to find someone who can do the job better, but it's not on the manager when prospects come up with broken fielding skills and aren't used to playing a certain position that they ultimately get moved to. Just because a prospect is hitting well in the minors doesn't mean he is being developed well. It's a system issue, he could have mitigated it better but these prospects shouldn't be coming out of the pipeline broken.

I understand your point but to be clear, SF traded Wade Jr. in June for “player to be named later” and they had to pick up a chunk of his annual $5M salary in order for Angels to take him……he had modest success prior.

[Eric Blonigen]

27 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

I would be curious to know how much salary (and bonuses and other compensation) Joe Pohlad and other family members take out of the Twins budget every year.  I suspect it is a pretty healthy number.

I would also be quite curious as to where the half billion in debt came from (or money went).

I’m curious about that as well. Seems like about the only way they could run a significant operating debt, aside from 2020.

[Eric Blonigen]

1 hour ago, Sjoski said:

Here's the BAD TRADE that was left off your list.  Possibly the worst of them all.

●●●

On July 27, 2018, the Minnesota Twins traded Ryan Pressly to the Houston Astros for two minor league prospects: Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino.

 

Yeah, that wasn’t a great one. Might have been the start of their assuming good relievers are easily replaceable. At the time, Celestino was considered a get. But, you know, failure to develop players and all.

[Doc Lenz]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

This is a pretty whiny article written in the frustration of team-sellus-interruptus. I am no fan of the Pohlads, but... Who has provided their AL Central team with the most financial resources of the past few years? The Pohlads. The front office has had a bunch of hit and miss, but guess what? Almost everybody's does. One the OP missed in its bitterness was getting Austin Martin (not our draft pick, FYI) and SWR for Berríos; not popular at the time but Martin was the highlight of the second half (after Rocco both played him and stopped trying to turn him into another Castro), and SWR was almost a full game up on Berríos this year (while being a half dozen years younger). A big miss? Manuel Margot, but I'm pretty sure it was Rocco sending him up to pinch hit so many times he set the MLB record for pinch futility. Good managers can make a huge difference in how teams play, and changing managers now is the proper first move.

Couldn’t have said it better!

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Agree with your conclusion but not your premise. A lot of the prospects came up and were good or pretty great right away-Julien, Kiriloff, Wallner, Lewis, Miranda, Keaschell, Sano, etc. But then either the pitchers adjusted and they didn't adjust back or the league figured out holes in their swings and confidence cratered. Julien finished 7th in ROY voting and is now worthless. Miranda- expected to be a middle of the order bat, also worthless. Lewis was incredible for his first two injured riddled seasons (2022-2023). Keaschell is the only one who hasn't slowed down yet, which is encouraging. Martin looks to be figuring it out after a slow start.  

Theoretically it should be easier to hit in the minors than the majors, and a lot of guys are great players in AAA but never figure it out at the MLB level. The fact that the Twins have had a lot of guys who had some success at the MLB level but couldn't sustain it suggests some other issue with coaching or development. 

Martin “seems” to have evolved into a probable contributor (he looks to be playing with a maturity)……..Keaschall’s success after breaking his forearm & being down 3 plus months, that’s very encouraging.

I agree with your comments on the guys that haven’t blossomed - in contrast to Julien,  Outman was #3 in N.L. ROY in ‘23…….not washed yet, but a completely different organization in the Dodgers …. they couldn’t seem to fix him either & gave up.

[Doc Lenz]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Funny you ask because in the latest Gleeman and the Geek Patreon episode, Aaron said what I said almost verbatim.

I don’t have a direct source, but it’s widely understood that Baldelli wasn’t making that kind of decision given how the entire organization is structured. 

Well 100% proof if they said it because they help with hiring I assume.

[Eric Blonigen]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Why would the Twins be the only team running up $500M in debt? The Pirates have all the same disadvantages as the Twins and they don't claim to have that much debt. Average MLB revenue is $430M per team. With a $140M payroll that leaves $250M to run operations even if they're 10% below league average in revenue. Are the Twins running more expensive operations than the Braves?

 

47 minutes ago, Danchat said:

It has been a positive trade given it was for 1.5 years of control of Berrios... but it has been disappointing to see that it took 4 years after the trade to get replacement level or better play from Martin in the majors. Their plan to develop him into a MLB hitter should not have taken this long and I put that more on the organization than the player.

Exactly. Both Martin and SWR were perceived as close to ready at the time, despite SWR being pushed aggressively through the minors.

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

They won a playoff series in ‘23 with same Manager & GM. They were on the rise. Agreed??

Payroll went from $124M - $134M - $154M from ‘21 - ‘23. Agreed?

Lopez salary increases in ‘24 per contract & CC was set to make $35M. OWNERSHIP CUTS PAYROLL from $154M down to $129M in ‘24. Agreed? (16.5%) ……pretty tough to add to the ‘23 core under these circumstances!!

Based on previous trend with Ownership over  3 years, the FO’s expectation for budget planning in ‘23 wasn’t “…….we’ll probably cut payroll total next year by 16.5%”. Agreed?

Can’t run a sports franchise nor an IT company nor a manufacturing company if Management doesn’t have a view for spending expectations from Ownership out 2-5 years…….at least a general feel. Can’t decimate the budget for labor/talent and then, after the fact, have analysts compare the company’s results to competitors that have historically spent less in your industry. Agreed?

Has Falvey & regime been great? - maybe not. Was Baldelli a perfect Manager? - no. ………Should OWNERSHIP DECISIONS be blamed for 75% + (IMO) of the decline over the past 2 seasons? - certainly!

Injuries and players not playing to just average/norm expectations have been (IMO) 20% of Team’s issues.

Those two percentages added doesn’t leave a lot of blame to go around for FO & Field Mgmt.

I don't contribute to Falvey any success that the Twins have had. I contribute players falling into his lap. For example, Cruz fell into our lap due to Schoop's recommendations. TB came to us with the Cruz/ Ryan trade (they wanted Cruz when we got him). Correa had nowhere else to go, MIA came to us with the Lopez/ Arraez trade. The juiced ball came at the right time in '19. Luck plays a lot in baseball success. But now that the league has the book out on Falvey. His luck has run out. 

Other FOs had less to work with & still competed. All we needed was an essential trade & better managing.

[Sjoski]

3 hours ago, PatPfund said:

The front office has had a bunch of hit and miss, but guess what? Almost everybody's does.

Falvey’s moves have consistently weakened the team rather than strengthened it. 

The article is looking at the full body of his work.

Far more misses than hits.

The Dodgers aren’t just rich, they’re smart. Their baseball decisions consistently put them ahead, while the Twins often tinker without real results.

[insagt1]

I'm just a fan who watches from afar so I don't know all the ins and outs of the organization like you fellas do. I was much more invested when Twins were the parent club of the Red Wings.

What I saw this year was pretty sad. Particularly when Buxton finally played pretty much an entire season and put up some very good numbers. But overall the team was not fun to watch it was a few years back. So many hitters just didn't arrive this year. Then the FO gave away nearly half the roster at the deadline. Then we had to watch the likes of Outman play everyday even though I don't think he ever cracked .150. There were times when the guys just looked bored with the game, maybe because by August they all knew they were never going higher than 4th and they weren't quite as pathetic as the WhiteSox.

firing the manager is always an option that owners use liberally when things go south. O's ditched Hyde during the season and it had minimal results. They were also hard to watch, especially the k's. So much needs to improve in 2026, and as we have seen, sometimes things turn around real quickly. I hope thats the case because the last two Septembers were massive trainwrecks in Minnesota.

I haven't provided an ounce of analysis...just observation as a fan that it was a painful season.

Maybe next year.

[bloomwcjkl]

I like Rocco. 7 years is enough to see it just isn't going to work.

Some managers work. Some don't. Rocco got us our first playoff series win in a long time.

Not sure how the Twins mix "cheap" and "good" together to find the next manager. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[Nshore]

I can't imagine what all the angst is about.  Falvey shrewdly stole James Outman from the Dodgers - a fine example of his superior personnel judgment.  Soon the Twins will have their own Murderers Row.

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Why would the Twins be the only team running up $500M in debt? The Pirates have all the same disadvantages as the Twins and they don't claim to have that much debt. Average MLB revenue is $430M per team. With a $140M payroll that leaves $250M to run operations even if they're 10% below league average in revenue. Are the Twins running more expensive operations than the Braves?

When Forbes presents the revenue data it is the total after all the revenue sharing money is added and subtracted. 320-330 some million is their revenue, not 10% less than league average  

PAYROLLS

YearOpening Day 26-man
Year End 40-manCB Tax 40-man

 

2024$127,317,590 (18)$132,543,419 (19)$160,175,512 (19)

2023$153,713,740 (17)$166,950,772 (16)$177,100,325 (18)

2022$134,408,190 (18)$151,057,543 (15)$173,198,565 (14)

2021$125,277,666 (16)$125,983,176 (17)$145,511,247 (16)

2020$ 45,620,603 (18)$  52,627,942 (19)$168,319,022 (16)

From Cot’s baseball contracts for what the Twins paid for players for the year. 

1,202 mil revenue from 2020-2024   823 million paid out The final column in the list by Cot’s is what they paid in total for all the players.   So, including the cost of Target Field  upgrades it is quite possible to be that far into debt. 

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Martin “seems” to have evolved into a probable contributor (he looks to be playing with a maturity)……..Keaschall’s success after breaking his forearm & being down 3 plus months, that’s very encouraging.

I agree with your comments on the guys that haven’t blossomed - in contrast to Julien,  Outman was #3 in N.L. ROY in ‘23…….not washed yet, but a completely different organization in the Dodgers …. they couldn’t seem to fix him either & gave up.

Nobody mentions they let go of most of the pro level scouts when they mention Outman. Probably the same could be said for Roden 

[stringer bell]

10 hours ago, AKTwinsFan said:

Part of the success is having consistent playing time. With Baldellis constant changes in the lineups and batting orders no players really had consistent success. I think 1-5 should stay the same with minor tweaks throughout the season, and 6-9 small platoon changes. It matters to players having repetition and consistency. 

This is precisely the problem with the Twins. Who would you play every day and hit #1-5? Ask 10 more posters and you'll probably get 10 more answers. Aside from Buxton, no one has taken the step to be an established regular, much less a star. I think that is on Rocco and is the best reason to show him the door.