Grading the 9 Trades from the Twins’ 2025 Trade Deadline

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

They needed to trade at least one of Correa, Lewis, or Lee. 

Also, Luke Keaschall looks like a really nice player. Kudos to the scouts who originally put eyes on him, and kudos to the front office for accelerating him through the minors—Keaschall was clearly ready for the challenge. They did the same fast promotion track with Luis Arraez. 

Reminds me of another rookie second baseman who came up in the 90s who looked really good. No, not Todd Walker, I am talking about Chuck Knoblauch…

I agree with tony&rodney that I would have liked to know if there was a plan going into the deadline, or if they just got caught up in the moment. Maybe packaging Duran with Bader with a very good minor leaguer or one of the back end MLB starters, can get you Painter. I don’t how good Painter is but the board seemed to like him. Instead, they traded Duran and Bader to the same team separately. Maybe the outfielder from the Bader trade is the skill corner outfielder they are lacking. I would have extended Bader with the Twins, understanding that his hitting will revert. Keaschall, Bader, plus a healthy Lewis and Buxton, and suddenly the 2026 team would look quicker up the middle in the field and on the bases. 

They made it known the asking price of players.  They talked to Correa. They had a plan. The plan shifted once Jax asked for a trade. They did not get as good of return as Duran but they did honor the player request.  When you look at the journey of Varland as a starter he never got the chance to start regardless of outcome has Festa and Mathews. I suspect that the trade offer by Toronto was in their opinion a blown out of the water deal. They did not seem to value him.  

If the Phillies think Painter is going to be a front of the rotation starter the Twins probably would have to give up that level of talent in pitching. Them giving up Abel would indicate they did not foresee greatness. The same could be said for when Tampa gave up Ryan and the pitcher for Jax. The staff here probably has ideas on how to make these pitchers better, hence the trade. 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Tom Froemming said:

They’ve since added their thoughts, which I appreciate (and showed so with a like). I’m not sure if you’re putting words into their mouth, so I want to make it clear I’m addressing this concept you’re outlining directly and not necessarily aiming this at Nurse, since this isn’t coming from them.

Twins Daily would be a pretty boring site if all we did was write about what already happened. Yes, it’s difficult to try to analyze how things might work out in the future — even the people whose job it is to do that aren’t all that good at it — but it’s fun to try and makes for some interesting conversations, like in this piece. 

Allow yourself to have a little fun. Embrace your worthless opinions! 😅

I ran across your post and responded before I ran across his post that's why I added a second post to something that was already addressed. It's quite possible I'm putting words in his mouth because I can never be sure what he is thinking but I gave his comment a like because I agree with what I thought he was trying to say. I didn't take his response as an attack on you personally. You are one of X number of writers, bloggers and cat jugglers who grade trades after they happen. It's quite common. I read his post as a caution that the trade grades are premature because the winners and losers are yet to be determined. You just happened to be the lucky example to illustrate what he was trying to say.  

You seemed to be a little defensive in your response (Could be words in your mouth) and I was just trying to  clarify what I thought was happening and that defensiveness isn't necessary. That's all.    

I completely understand. Content is everything... and you need daily content when let's be honest... yesterday was like the day before and day before that making that necessary content difficult to come up with. I totally get it. This trade deadline was obviously big news and the bloggers would not be doing their job if they didn't come up with multiple angles to present for public consumption. I totally get it.  

In the grand scheme of things. My opinions are just as worthless as anybody's. I do embrace them, I spend thousands of words defending them and it takes guts to stand up to that wind. 

The thing that I personally have stopped doing is trying to predict what anybody will be in the future so while these articles are necessary and I read them for fun. I take very little stock in them.    

 

[DJL44]

Consensus seems to be the Twins got a little more for Bader than he was worth and a little less for Duran than what he was worth. Does it even out if you think of the trade as Bader and Duran for Tait, Abel, Mendez and Villoria?

[TNtwins85]

14 hours ago, SteveLV said:

My thoughts and hopes after the trade deadline:

1) Pohlads sell to a good new owner willing to embrace the fan base and reinvigorate the franchise;

2) A new TV deal in some form or another that helps the finances;

3) Ryan gets extended in the off season.  Otherwise, trade him for an excellent package;

4) The only thing I can come up with on the Stewart trade is that there is something very bad in his medicals;

5) I actually like the Varland trade package and like that this franchise finally has some LH starting pitchers in the pipeline;

6) Correa was becoming an emotional albatross on top of his salary.  He may very well excel in Houston, but that was never going to happen here based on his past performance;

I posted this before the trade deadline and I stand by the original comment:  I would rather watch young players try and possibly fail than waiver-wire wannabes flounder and trying to catch lightning in a bottle. I think all fans are more forgiving of young players trying to make the jump to the majors and enjoy rooting for the rookies.  LET'S GO!

P.S.  The only REAL hope for the Twins is a new CBA that institutes a real salary cap and floor, but that is probably a pipe dream.....

I would agree with you on most of this but I strongly disagree with you and almost everyone else on the salary cap and floor. Exhibit one: Luis Severino. 
While the A’s might have seen this as a good move speculation also points to the fact that per the CBA and previous MLBPA grievances this signing was used as a play to avoid any problems with their move and simply keep the MLBPA off the back of the athletics and MLB. Anybody can read the CBA and the grievances but in a nutshell the Athletics were forced to buy a player past his prime for more money than he really should have got to simply show they are spending money and “playing ball”. Now times that by 30 teams. That will force teams to spend money on aging FA’s who don’t necessarily “deserve” these pay days simply to show “hey, we’re spending money.” Meanwhile they’ll have a league wide inflation where the floor and ceiling move by certain percentage points every year. Older aging players will get their payday. Owners picket more money. We all know there are angles to all of this and the strongest angles are gonna be played by owners and established players. It’s gonna be about what’s best for the business and not what’s best for baseball as a game. People need to go read this stuff. There’s a reason some of the most lucrative franchises are all in the NFL. It’s not because of what you think. There’s a reason why MLB players are the highest paid in sports. It’s because they get a bigger piece of the pie. Now do you want the money in owners hands or players hands. That’s the question.

[Brandon]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Consensus seems to be the Twins got a little more for Bader than he was worth and a little less for Duran than what he was worth. Does it even out if you think of the trade as Bader and Duran for Tait, Abel, Mendez and Villoria?

Probably not but maybe 5% closer to even value than before.  

[Wedman13]

On 8/7/2025 at 9:14 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's entirely valid to look at trades beyond the impact they have on the baseball diamond. Varland is from St Paul and he grew up a Twins fan. Trading him away when he has so many years of control left sucks.

Here we go again....

[Reptevia]

23 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You'd have to add a number 4 (though this year 5) starter (with 4 years of control) to Duran to get the deal. 

 

Since Sears was sent to AAA, I guess we could have thrown in Dobnak or some other AAA player?  Fleeced. 

[SteveLV]

"I would agree with you on most of this but I strongly disagree with you and almost everyone else on the salary cap and floor. Exhibit one: Luis Severino. 
While the A’s might have seen this as a good move speculation also points to the fact that per the CBA and previous MLBPA grievances this signing was used as a play to avoid any problems with their move and simply keep the MLBPA off the back of the athletics and MLB. Anybody can read the CBA and the grievances but in a nutshell the Athletics were forced to buy a player past his prime for more money than he really should have got to simply show they are spending money and “playing ball”. Now times that by 30 teams. That will force teams to spend money on aging FA’s who don’t necessarily “deserve” these pay days simply to show “hey, we’re spending money.” Meanwhile they’ll have a league wide inflation where the floor and ceiling move by certain percentage points every year. Older aging players will get their payday. Owners picket more money. We all know there are angles to all of this and the strongest angles are gonna be played by owners and established players. It’s gonna be about what’s best for the business and not what’s best for baseball as a game. People need to go read this stuff. There’s a reason some of the most lucrative franchises are all in the NFL. It’s not because of what you think. There’s a reason why MLB players are the highest paid in sports. It’s because they get a bigger piece of the pie. Now do you want the money in owners hands or players hands. That’s the question."

 

I have a different vision of a MLB Salary Cap.  I would guarantee the players 55% of ALL revenue.  That is more than they are currently receiving.  This is the main carrot.

I would impose a hard cap and a hard floor for every team modelled after the NFL CBA.

I would impose true, full revenue sharing.

I would increase MiLB salaries 100% across the board.  Their treatment is ridiculous.

I would limit the length of all contracts to 5 years max.  That allows players to sign deals and second deals while still in their prime.

I would make players FA after 4 years of MLB service time, reduced to 3 years for player who meet performance goals similar to the time-served calculation.

I would raise MLB minimum salaries to $2M per player.

I would forbid future or deferred compensation deals beyond 5 years.

I would require financial transparency from all owners for all revenue streams.

My goals are:

1)  Get more $ in the hands of younger players, including minor leaguers;

2) Create competitive equality in the league like the NFL enjoys;

3) Raise the value of smaller market franchises;

4) Let players achieve FA earlier in their careers.

Who would say "Yes".  The players, except the very few elite players.  The vast majority of players benefit hugely under this proposal.  Small market teams, but they have to share the wealth with the players.

Who says "No".  Big market team owners and the few fat-cat elite players and their agents.

If this is presented properly, this should be accepted by the MLPA and the owners by majority vote.

This is a skeleton of a deal that would benefit MLB and MiLB immensely.  It will never happen.  Manfred is weak and the elite players and their agents control the MLBPA.

[JD-TWINS]

On 8/7/2025 at 9:49 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

What is the context of your ranking? Is it player based? ? How are you rating the prospects coming back? Is it from similar trades? Is it your gut feeling?

Given the variables of the team and the unknowns, other than the Varland move (which feels like you graded based off of emotions) I can't see any move being less than a B or B-. Finances ruled the day. Teams saw that everyone was being moved so they started to lowball all the trade offers. If this started a week ago, the returns may have looked different.

The Duran trade only looks worse because of the Miller trade, otherwise everyone would be crowing about it.

Correa gets a B in a bubble, but will be an F by next spring when that money is not reinvested back into salary.

All of that being said, the common knowledge comment: We will not truly know the success or failure of these trades until 2028-2030.

They got out from under a fading player’s enormously out of balance compensation. Taj Bradley & Abel & possibly Rojas should be in the mix on the 13 man staff through ‘26.

I certainly don’t think that the return can’t be gauged until ‘28-‘30.

Stewart, while solid this season and nearly always, when healthy, is like Russian Roulette from a physical standpoint. Outman was 3rd in ROY race in ‘23 - great lottery that cket move!

Coluombe - Paddack - Castro - Bader were all gone in 2 months and weren’t going to get them in the playoffs this year. The arms have similar upside to what they let go and they got  controllable years of service gains across the board.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

9 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

THIS!  I've been harping on this point in multiple threads.  They keep talking about addressing our issues but all we did was add starting pitching depth at the expense of our relief pitching depth.  We've done little to nothing to address the hitting which is exactly what our main issue is.

Thanks. Do I get a "like?"

[SwainZag]

On 8/7/2025 at 9:54 AM, Mike Sixel said:

The Stewart trade is embarrassing, truly. An awful trade. They didn't give up much, and got negative value in return. Outman should be DFA. 

Would we be okay with the Twins DFA'ing a guy who finished 3rd in ROY voting, and hit 23 HR with an .800 OPS less than 2 years ago?  He has proven over a full season he CAN hit ML pitching.  He might be a lost cause, and sure maybe he should be DFA'd, but....how much can any team really rely in Stewart? He's spent more time on the IL than he has the roster.  He will be 34 soon.  "Control years" don't really tell the whole story about a guy his age.  I would have preferred a younger lottery ticket, but when he is approaching his career high in IP (34) and he's been around for a decade.......how much do we really think he is going to get back?

We all know when he's 100% healthy he is filthy.  We should also all know that's very unlikely.  We should also know that other teams know this.  Embarrassing could be true, but it's a sight to been seen.  

[bunsen82]

Other than Mendez who I really really like, the only trades that really matter in magnitude is Jax, Duran, and Varland.  Jax for Bradley I had waffled back and forth but I am solely in the camp of being a very good trade. I’m starting to think Jax did us a favor by asking to be traded. The Varland trade was probably a pretty big overpay.  Roden looks like he might be able to man one of the corner outfield spots. As of now Rojas is still a bit of a project. Duran was a fair trade.  Both Tait and Abel look pretty good in a handful of games.  We are watching better baseball and got some pretty good prospects.  There is no point to really grade these trades. Ultimately it’s whether they can help the big league team. Roden has strung together 2 solid game.  

[old nurse]

On 8/7/2025 at 4:50 PM, DocBauer said:

I'm not sure if sending along $ in most of these deals would have made a difference other than the Paddack/Dobnak deal. (Correa's deal is its own mess). Stewart, Varland and France were on minimum or barely above deals. So their new teams are only hook for about a combined $1M. Jax is owed roughly $800,000. Coulombe is owed about $1M. Bader has about $2M still owed. So I don't know if  paying any part of those remaining contracts makes a difference? Maybe Bader?

Where I think it might have made a difference is picking up half of Duran's remaining $1.4M. Does half of that, or all of it, add a 3rd player to the deal?

I don't think a young catcher like Jiminez from Detroit was an awful return. He's a LONG way away from MLB, but he's got some bat potential, has a good arm, and reportedly is a natural behind the plate. So if you pick up some of Paddack's remaining salary and don't "force" Dobnak in to the deal, maybe they get a 1B, or solid OF, at A+...MAYBE AA...instead of a FCL catcher who's just been promoted to A- ball. I'm sure we will never know, but it does make me wonder.

 

A young player with a high ceiling was probably a better get than an AA player with a low one. Paddack has had a FIP of 4.7 something since the middle of June. That number is less damning than his ERA over 6. The FIP is sixth starter territory. The ERA is trade for a PTNL or cash territory. The grade for value received is likely better than the outcome, but when the results are in, Paddack will be long gone fishing

[Robert Gauthier]

According to morning Strib, Jax was worried about his stats when he was taken out.  Funny, it sucked most of the year and NOW he cares?

[TopGunn#22]

For the most part, I agree with the grades.  Of course, Matthew should be given the opportunity to re-grade about this time next year after he's been able to evaluate how Bradley and Abel are doing in the big leagues and how some of the other pieces are progressing through the minors.

What disappointed me about this deadline the most was that we were supposed to have leverage and I don't see that in ANY of the trades we made.  We got 2 good prospects back for Duran, but should have done better.  When you have one of the top 2 closers on the market (Mason Miller was the other) a team should extract a premium.  The Duran trade failed to attain that level.  As I've said, include Bader in the Duran deal and get the young CF prospect Crawford.  THAT would have at least approached a premium.

I agree with the assessment that we Twins fans overvalued Willi Castro.  Willie could play a number of places but LF was the only position he had even average fielding prowess.  Honestly, he was a below average fielder at 3B, 2B, SS & CF.  He was a decent, but not outstanding hitter.  We got about what he was worth. 

I hated trading Jax.  But we got a pitcher 6 years younger who could become a #3 SP or possibly a kights out RP.  Time will tell.

I think the Correa trade was a win just to off load the salary of a SS who spent a lot of time injured.  The grade for now is acceptable, but I agree it will rise or fall on what the new owner and new FO decides to do with the $20 million saved in salary.  Some of that could be used on an upgrade to a position player who hits better.  Some on replenishing the BP.  No grade can be considered "official" on the Correa trade until we see how that added payroll in invested...or NOT invested.

What I didn't like about the Stewart and Varland trades is that they were last minute and appeared to be rushed.  The FO completely botched the Stewart trade.  The Varland trade, with all the years of control remaining for Varland and the lack of anyone on the current roster to close games was unnecessary to me.  We may bring in a veteran closer at $3 million or so, maybe we don't.  But Varland COULD have been the closer in 2026 or at the least, the 8th inning set up guy.  Front office malpractice on the Varland and Stewart trades in my opinion.  

[jmlease1]

11 hours ago, Robert Gauthier said:

According to morning Strib, Jax was worried about his stats when he was taken out.  Funny, it sucked most of the year and NOW he cares?

well, this is the sort of story that comes out after a trade where someone throws a little dirt on a guy so the deal looks better.

It also might be true, and a reminder that just because a player might have a public bulldog image where they "only care about wins" and will do anything for the team...they also still might care a lot about their stats, especially behind the scenes.