Current starters that could be moved to the bullpen in 2026.

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't think Baltimore is going to trade Basallo , but that's a guess of course.

I preface this by saying I don't want to trade Ryan or Lopez, but if you do there are a few other C prospects that may be worthwhile spending some time trying to work out a deal.  The Cubs have Moises Ballesteros and Seattle has Harry Ford.  Harry Ford may be a bit easier to pry from Seattle who has Cal Raleigh.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Chembry said:

I preface this by saying I don't want to trade Ryan or Lopez, but if you do there are a few other C prospects that may be worthwhile spending some time trying to work out a deal.  The Cubs have Moises Ballesteros and Seattle has Harry Ford.  Harry Ford may be a bit easier to pry from Seattle who has Cal Raleigh.

Agreed. 

My point is.....there aren't many positions they'll look to fill from outside next year. C and great RH OF that can hit and field are about it, IMO (since no one trades for a 1B prospect). That limits the number of teams you deal Ryan to. There also aren't many contenders with budgets that have multiple top 50-100 prospects. 

I was shocked that Ford wasn't traded this deadline.......

[Chembry]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. 

My point is.....there aren't many positions they'll look to fill from outside next year. C and great RH OF that can hit and field are about it, IMO (since no one trades for a 1B prospect). That limits the number of teams you deal Ryan to. There also aren't many contenders with budgets that have multiple top 50-100 prospects. 

I was shocked that Ford wasn't traded this deadline.......

I was hoping Jax or Duran was going Seattle and Ford being the return.  Plus would have been easy to root for Seattle in the postseason.  I am a big J-Rod fan and they have several ex-Twins on their roster.

[DJL44]

On 8/5/2025 at 4:08 PM, chpettit19 said:

I'd be very surprised to see any of these 8 shifted to the pen before 2027. Travis Adams, Pierson Ohl, Corey Lewis, Andrew Morris, Darren Bowen. Those are the types of guys I expect to see getting shifted to 1 inning roles next year to see if they can build some back end relievers out of them.

Raya, Prielipp, CJ Culpepper, Hidalgo, Macleod, Gallagher

Hill, Soto and Rojas stay in the rotation

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Raya, Prielipp, CJ Culpepper, Hidalgo, Macleod, Gallagher

Hill, Soto and Rojas stay in the rotation

If Soto is in Minnesota in two years, I'll be shocked. He's missing the whole season this year, isn't he?

[darin617]

On 8/5/2025 at 6:27 PM, The Great Hambino said:

I will  believe there is a sale taking place when the agreement is signed.  I think people are putting waaaay too much stock in vague rumors of “momentum” - whatever that means - and the word of an untrustworthy commissioner.  The rumors were much more concrete when they said a sale would be done by opening day.

You can believe it’s happening if you want.  I don’t have to and won’t without actual evidence

I never said I believed it, I just said with a new owner. If there was someone interested in buying them it would have been done by now.

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 hours ago, Chembry said:

I was hoping Jax or Duran was going Seattle and Ford being the return.  Plus would have been easy to root for Seattle in the postseason.  I am a big J-Rod fan and they have several ex-Twins on their roster.

Harry Ford is a super fun prospect. Would love to see him with the twins. He is certainly blocked from a full time role there too with Raleigh around and all

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If Soto is in Minnesota in two years, I'll be shocked. He's missing the whole season this year, isn't he?

He won’t be ready for the bullpen or the rotation in the next 2 seasons. Hill probably won’t either. Maybe 2028.

[SaberNerd]

Festa is the first to the bullpen.  Career 2.45ERA/3.05FIP first time through the order, 7.56/5.35 2nd.  Should be flirting with 100 as well, could be a top 10 reliever.

We traded Jax for Bradley.  They view him as a starter, even this year he's fine for a back of the rotation guy and there is more to unlock.

[Twodogs]

I remember when Grateral and Duran were coming up through the minors that there was always a lot of talk about their "special" velocity.  Hovering around 102 - 103 all of the time.  I know all guys now throw hard but is there anyone coming up, even in high A or AA that has that little bit of extra Velo?? 

[Chembry]

8 hours ago, SaberNerd said:

Festa is the first to the bullpen.  Career 2.45ERA/3.05FIP first time through the order, 7.56/5.35 2nd.  Should be flirting with 100 as well, could be a top 10 reliever.

We traded Jax for Bradley.  They view him as a starter, even this year he's fine for a back of the rotation guy and there is more to unlock.

What is encouraging about Bradley is he had a sub 4 ERA heading into June this year.  Looking at his starts after June, he had 5 starts where he gave up >4 runs.  He gave an interview in St Paul where he said he had quite a few good starts this year, but in those rough outings he had this year he had a "harder time closing the door".  Good lessons learned.

 

1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

I remember when Grateral and Duran were coming up through the minors that there was always a lot of talk about their "special" velocity.  Hovering around 102 - 103 all of the time.  I know all guys now throw hard but is there anyone coming up, even in high A or AA that has that little bit of extra Velo?? 

I don't know if you consider Jacob Misiorowski up and coming.  He made his MLB debut in June for the Brewers.  He holds >100 mph as a starter.  I have seen him throw 100 into the 7th inning.  Graterol has had a whole host of injuries since joining the Dodgers.  Pretty sure he has only pitched about 7-8 innings since the start of 2024.

Inside the Twins organization, I am not aware of anyone that is throwing 100+ on the regular.  We do have several that will sit in the mid to upper 90's:

Taj Bradley (newly acquired at AAA): sits 95-97 comfortably and touches 99

Mick Abel (newly acquired at AAA): sits 95-97 comfortably and touches 99

Marco Raya (AAA): sits ~95.  Have seen him hit 98 a few times this year

Kendry Rojas (newly acquired at AAA): from scouting reports hits 97

Connor Prelipp (AA): Twins taking him slow after TJ surgery, but hits 97

Charlie Soto (A+): Turns 20 at the end of August and sits at 95-97

Riley Quick: (Drafted 2025): This guy is interesting.  Dude is huge.  6'6" at 255 lbs.  Chose baseball over football.  Missed his junior year at University of Alabama after TJ surgery.  Senior year his sinker was sitting at 96-97 touching 99. He just turned 21

Note- all these guys are starting pitchers where they sacrifice some velocity in favor of stamina.  If any of these guys make the transition to the bullpen (i.e. the Varland/Jax/Duran/Perkins route) most of these guys could probably hit 100 on a fairly regular basis.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I would love to be wrong...

But, I would be shocked if Lopez / Ryan / Ober are on the opening day roster in 2026. The starting pitching 'depth' is going to POOF really quickly.

Rotation in 2026...

1. Zebby Matthews

2. Simeon Woods-Richardson

3. Taj Bradley

4. Mick Abel

5. David Festa

That looks like the rotation of a 65 win team.

[Riverbrian]

Starter or Bullpen are just designations. 

What matters is the amount of innings that they throw. 

They are all on inning counts. Lopez, Ryan and Ober probably have higher innings (or pitch) counts but the rest are pretty young arms who will be on stricter inning counts. 

Therefore Matthews, Festa, SWR, Abel, maybe even Bradley would probably routinely pulled after 3, 4 or 5 innings. 

The Twins could therefore have multiple starters (Just a designation) on the staff on stricter inning counts. Doesn't matter if they start or relieve what matters is getting the innings in. If Matthews is going to go 4 innings, Abel can follow with 4 innings and you can get through the game that way. 

The starters don't have to be converted.  

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I would love to be wrong...

But, I would be shocked if Lopez / Ryan / Ober are on the opening day roster in 2026. The starting pitching 'depth' is going to POOF really quickly.

Rotation in 2026...

1. Zebby Matthews

2. Simeon Woods-Richardson

3. Taj Bradley

4. Mick Abel

5. David Festa

That looks like the rotation of a 65 win team.

If they go this route (my gut says they will), then Raya, Culpepper, Prielipp, and Rojas should be part of the mix as well at some point in the season.  They need to give all of them a look so a more permanent rotation and some semblance of a bullpen can be identified by the end of the year.  Adams and Ohl could be in this mix as well to varying degrees.  I don't see them as having real shots as permanent fixtures in the rotation (maybe they could be developed into long relief or mid-leverage bullpen options?), but they still should be there to fill out the rotation as needed if some of the above are better served in AAA or injuries start to rack up

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I would love to be wrong...

But, I would be shocked if Lopez / Ryan / Ober are on the opening day roster in 2026. The starting pitching 'depth' is going to POOF really quickly.

Rotation in 2026...

1. Zebby Matthews

2. Simeon Woods-Richardson

3. Taj Bradley

4. Mick Abel

5. David Festa

That looks like the rotation of a 65 win team.

If a sale doesn't happen quick, I do worry about the Twins top three starters being here.

But while cleaning the books may look like a good move to them right now, at some point the Pohlads are going to have to start asking if a buyer truly wants to buy a roster that's basically an expansion team, but without the excitement and fanfare that comes with opening up a new market. New owners will want a nice financial outlook, but they still want people going to the games and watching on TV.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

29 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If a sale doesn't happen quick, I do worry about the Twins top three starters being here.

But while cleaning the books may look like a good move to them right now, at some point the Pohlads are going to have to start asking if a buyer truly wants to buy a roster that's basically an expansion team, but without the excitement and fanfare that comes with opening up a new market. New owners will want a nice financial outlook, but they still want people going to the games and watching on TV.

Yup. Agreed about the potential for new owners. Sale can't happen soon enough.

[P Meyer]

On 8/5/2025 at 3:36 PM, The Great Hambino said:

I'm thinking that at least two of three of Lopez/Ryan/Ober are gone by the start of next year.  I tend to the more pessimistic viewpoint of a quick rebuild.

If it turns out that way, then they need to devise some ways to get all these guys turns in the major league rotation.  In this situation it's a true evaluation year, so treat it that way.  They shouldn't be locked into a traditional 5 man rotation in that case.  Get creative - 6 man rotation, cycle between AAA and the majors in some systematic way, piggyback - the best thing they can hope to get out of the 2026 season is information, so use it accordingly.   And let them fail, let them learn.  Stretch out the guys showing promise as a starter.  Find back-of-the-bullpen quality traits and develop them in the guys that aren't.  And if they show neither?  Let them marinate in AAA if it makes sense, or give them a chance to show value in long relief depending on stuff, age, options, etc.  For the guys you've been evaluating in your system, maybe you've already earmarked them as relief material (Raya?) and you can put them in the bullpen from the get go.  Hopefully by the end of the year you can see both a rotation and an actual bullpen starting to form.  

Whatever's left of Sands and Topa can keep the bullpen afloat with what I'd assume will be a DFA conga line of Jay Jackson-type signings.  But get them out of the way as soon as some young guys are showing bullpen promise.  A noncompetitive season doesn't have to be a wasted one if they treat it right

The Twins moving at least one of Lopez, Ryan, and/or Ober was my biggest take away from the Bradley acquisition. Zeb and Bradley with SWR and Festa battling for the 5th spot in 2025 seems like the intention. Which starter(s?) get moved probably comes down to a combination of return and salary savings.

[P Meyer]

39 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If a sale doesn't happen quick, I do worry about the Twins top three starters being here.

But while cleaning the books may look like a good move to them right now, at some point the Pohlads are going to have to start asking if a buyer truly wants to buy a roster that's basically an expansion team, but without the excitement and fanfare that comes with opening up a new market. New owners will want a nice financial outlook, but they still want people going to the games and watching on TV.

Lopez makes the most sense as he is the most expensive but the shoulder injury clouds that up.

 

Ryan likely gets you the largest return but will be the most scrutinized player if traded. 

 

Ober makes sense because he has not pitched great. but probably still has some value. Less pressure to get back a decent return but an easy salary to move for a player of his ability. 

 

My guess is one of Lopez/Ryan and then Ober as well. 

[P Meyer]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Starter or Bullpen are just designations. 

What matters is the amount of innings that they throw. 

They are all on inning counts. Lopez, Ryan and Ober probably have higher innings (or pitch) counts but the rest are pretty young arms who will be on stricter inning counts. 

Therefore Matthews, Festa, SWR, Abel, maybe even Bradley would probably routinely pulled after 3, 4 or 5 innings. 

The Twins could therefore have multiple starters (Just a designation) on the staff on stricter inning counts. Doesn't matter if they start or relieve what matters is getting the innings in. If Matthews is going to go 4 innings, Abel can follow with 4 innings and you can get through the game that way. 

The starters don't have to be converted.  

If this were true, multi inning relievers probably a higher priority than specific matchup relievers. A player like Raya might offer better roster value because of his history of being able to throw 2-4 innings.

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

If this were true, multi inning relievers probably a higher priority than specific matchup relievers. A player like Raya might offer better roster value because of his history of being able to throw 2-4 innings.

What I suggest is an option because the bullpen is really questionable right now and it just might require some creativity to get through it. I'll be surprised if the Twins actually do it like that but I can't see why it can't be figured out this way.  

You are correct... The more innings you throw... typically the more valuable you are. 

And the more money you make when Arbitration starts. 

That's why it would be hard for a rebuilding GM to pass up these deals. Duran - Abel, Jax - Bradley, Varland - Rojas. 

If the other team is willing to give up legitimate starting talent with the potential of 150 innings a year over guys that throw 60 innings a year. It would be hard to turn down. 

These trades work out real nice for the Twins if one thing happens. That they are able to develop the players acquired. If Abel, Bradley and Rojas are develop into above average at the very least. We potentially won't have to worry about starting pitching for awhile. 

Meanwhile... The Bullpen... They will start over and have to rebuild that thing. Using Creativity or duct tape. 

[Major League Ready]

On 8/6/2025 at 8:29 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I keep seeing people say they are certain that both Lopez and Ryan are getting traded. Other than the trade deadline happening a few days ago, I struggle to see why people are so certain of this.

That said, let's play it out. Let's say one of them is traded. I'll say Ryan because he is having the better year and isn't injured. What is coming back in that scenario? It's not like we trade him and then nothing is in return.

What do you think a return for Ryan would be? How would trading him help the 2026 and 2027 team? And how would that help the team more than trading him would?

Three reasons I am sure.  One, when you sell of key pieces with 2 plus years control like Duran, Jax, and Varland, you are not trying to win the next year.  Two, Lopez and Ryan have two years remaining after this year.  One year is certainly lost and the 2nd year has a low probability.   Their trade value is far higher than their value for the possibility of having one year in the playoffs.  Three, keeping them would be half-a$$ing it.  The entire point of a tearing down a mediocre team is to amass enough talent to move well beyond mediocre to actual contender.  Ryan and Lopez have the potential to bring back the type of impact players that are essential to going from good to great.  Stopping the rebuild now defeats much of the purpose of going through a rebuild.  We would be a little better for 1 year and worse for 4-6 years after 2027.  I look for 2 of the three to be traded this off-season.   

[Cory Engelhardt]

35 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Three reasons I am sure.  One, when you sell of key pieces with 2 plus years control like Duran, Jax, and Varland, you are not trying to win the next year.  Two, Lopez and Ryan have two years remaining after this year.  One year is certainly lost and the 2nd year has a low probability.   Their trade value is far higher than their value for the possibility of having one year in the playoffs.  Three, keeping them would be half-a$$ing it.  The entire point of a tearing down a mediocre team is to amass enough talent to move well beyond mediocre to actual contender.  Ryan and Lopez have the potential to bring back the type of impact players that are essential to going from good to great.  Stopping the rebuild now defeats much of the purpose of going through a rebuild.  We would be a little better for 1 year and worse for 4-6 years after 2027.  I look for 2 of the three to be traded this off-season.   

Maybe. But 2 follow-ups...

1) Why is trading both of them THIS offseason better than trading possibly one this offseason and another next deadline?

2) What exactly are you shooting for in a return? Are you trading them JUST to be bad? Are you trading them to supplement elsewhere for the major league team or to add to some positional group in the minors that needs more (for example, catching in the upper minors?)

The only thing I was saying is, I don't see the point in HAVING to trade both of them this offseason. I suppose it all depends on new owners really, but the goal doesn't HAVE to be to bottom out. Too much starting pitching talent in the mlb level and in the upper minors (in my opinion) along with all many guys who are either currently in the majors or on the cusp too.

 

Basically IF you trade both, what are you wanting back specifically? 

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Three reasons I am sure.  One, when you sell of key pieces with 2 plus years control like Duran, Jax, and Varland, you are not trying to win the next year.  Two, Lopez and Ryan have two years remaining after this year.  One year is certainly lost and the 2nd year has a low probability.   Their trade value is far higher than their value for the possibility of having one year in the playoffs.  Three, keeping them would be half-a$$ing it.  The entire point of a tearing down a mediocre team is to amass enough talent to move well beyond mediocre to actual contender.  Ryan and Lopez have the potential to bring back the type of impact players that are essential to going from good to great.  Stopping the rebuild now defeats much of the purpose of going through a rebuild.  We would be a little better for 1 year and worse for 4-6 years after 2027.  I look for 2 of the three to be traded this off-season.   

1. Jax asked for the trade and the Twins obliged.  End of story.  I don't think the Twins had any intention of trading Jax until he requested the trade.  Were they listening to offers, yes of course they were.  I really don't think they went into the day saying we are trading Jax.  That's why the deal was closed right at the deadline.

2. There is a story on MLB.com today about the Varland trade.  The Twins weren't intending to trade Varland.  According to Cory Provus, the Blue Jays have been trying to acquire Varland for a few years. When they came calling and offered Rojas/Roden for Varland/France, the Twins thought that was too good to pass up. Here is a few statements from the article: https://www.mlb.com/news/why-the-twins-traded-louis-varland-to-the-blue-jays

"First, know this: The Twins weren’t looking to move Varland. I don’t think anyone in the front office thought that the hometown kid would be one of the players moved. But as you hear all the time, all it takes is one phone call, and they got the call that made them -- to use a term I heard a lot this week -- “motivated.”

It starts with this: The Twins believe Alan Roden, who came over from the Blue Jays, will be something very close to an everyday Major League outfielder, and as you’ve seen, they’re already playing him that way. They like his athleticism -- he’s the best defensive corner outfielder currently on the roster -- and they like his approach at the plate.

But it’s the other player in the deal who they view as the real prize. The Twins rate lefty Kendry Rojas very, very highly. They were as fond of him as any pitcher in the Blue Jays’ system. Just because analysts don’t have him as a Top-100 prospect, doesn’t mean the Twins view him as lesser.

But there’s another aspect, and I found this very interesting. One thing that a lot of people have noted is that Varland still has five years of team control remaining. But I was told by someone in the industry that sometimes teams view that differently for relievers than other positions.

Relief pitchers are, without question, the most volatile players in baseball. If you took a look at the best relievers in 2021 and the best relievers in ‘25, there would be almost no overlap. So the math is just a little different. Yes, you have Varland for five years, but it’s not the same as having a hitter or starter for five years. The value is just different.

None of that may change your view. You may still be angry, sad or frustrated, and I’m not trying to change your mind. But I do hope you have a better understanding of the thought process."

My point is, I don't think the two trades you mention have any bearing or impact on trading Lopez/Ryan/Ober.  Now I believe one of them will be traded and I don't think that necessarily means they have punted.  From what I read, the Twins wanted Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu + prospects for Joe Ryan.  That doesn't scream punting to me.  That tells me the Twins think they can compete with a few additional pieces and build their bullpen internally from the fringe starters (Festa/SWR/Raya).     

[Major League Ready]

23 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Maybe. But 2 follow-ups...

1) Why is trading both of them THIS offseason better than trading possibly one this offseason and another next deadline?

2) What exactly are you shooting for in a return? Are you trading them JUST to be bad? Are you trading them to supplement elsewhere for the major league team or to add to some positional group in the minors that needs more (for example, catching in the upper minors?)

The only thing I was saying is, I don't see the point in HAVING to trade both of them this offseason. I suppose it all depends on new owners really, but the goal doesn't HAVE to be to bottom out. Too much starting pitching talent in the mlb level and in the upper minors (in my opinion) along with all many guys who are either currently in the majors or on the cusp too.

 

Basically IF you trade both, what are you wanting back specifically? 

1) it's not much different at all and may very well work out that way.

2) Two things.  One, impact players and sustained success.   Ryan has the highest probability by far of bringing back a star that can carry the team.  Two, positioning for sustained success.  We have an incredible amount of young talent that needs to be transitioned to the big leagues.  That means 2026 is a transition (lost) year and 2027 is still a long shot.  In other words, the probability of the big three contributing to a playoff run is very low.  For me, winning 72 or 78 games next year makes little difference.  The point being that passing on the return provided by trading these players offers very little value and most likely diminishes our chances for several years after 2027.   

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

1) it's not much different at all and may very well work out that way.

2) Two things.  One, impact players and sustained success.   Ryan has the highest probability by far of bringing back a star that can carry the team.  Two, positioning for sustained success.  We have an incredible amount of young talent that needs to be transitioned to the big leagues.  That means 2026 is a transition (lost) year and 2027 is still a long shot.  In other words, the probability of the big three contributing to a playoff run is very low.  For me, winning 72 or 78 games next year makes little difference.  The point being that passing on the return provided by trading these players offers very little value and most likely diminishes our chances for several years after 2027.   

And that could be. It just doesn't take into account that the young players who will really start to get a shot in 2026, you are assuming that they will produce worse than our lineup has in 2024 and 2025. That could be the case, or it might not be. That mostly then falls on coaching and development no?

 

If you already have a rotation in place, and you make a couple of moves for the bullpen, AND you have a lineup that stays healthy, that doesn't mean explicitly that it will fail.

[P Meyer]

18 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

And that could be. It just doesn't take into account that the young players who will really start to get a shot in 2026, you are assuming that they will produce worse than our lineup has in 2024 and 2025. That could be the case, or it might not be. That mostly then falls on coaching and development no?

 

If you already have a rotation in place, and you make a couple of moves for the bullpen, AND you have a lineup that stays healthy, that doesn't mean explicitly that it will fail.

I think trading both is a bit of a stretch. I think trading one along with Ober is the more likely scenario. 

[SF Twins Fan]

On 8/6/2025 at 11:41 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Didn't know about Anthony. I have zero interest in trading Ryan to Boston. Casas isn't a middle of the order bat.

He's just not all that good. He's 25 with a 56 wrc+ and negative .6 fwar this year. He wasn't good last year. He was mediocre the year before. 

I just don't get it.

If Ryan is traded I'd much rather try and complete a trade with the Mets.  They have four very good prospects (Two position players and two pitchers) at either AA or AAA.

 

EDIT:  Apparently I didn't read far enough as you've already posted this.  Ha.

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

I think trading both is a bit of a stretch. I think trading one along with Ober is the more likely scenario. 

Even then, Lopez is coming back from injury, and Ober has had a down year (to his standards.)

Other than simply trading guys away just to trade them, I haven't seen this front office trade away players coming off down or injured seasons. Have you?

[P Meyer]

2 minutes ago, SF Twins Fan said:

If Ryan is traded I'd much rather try and complete a trade with the Mets.  They have four very good prospects (Two position players and two pitchers) at either AA or AAA.

I think it will be very difficult to get equitable prospect only value back for Ryan.

 

Bryce Eldridge? He would be great but is he enough?

 

[jorgenswest]

46 minutes ago, Chembry said:

Relief pitchers are, without question, the most volatile players in baseball. If you took a look at the best relievers in 2021 and the best relievers in ‘25, there would be almost no overlap. So the math is just a little different. Yes, you have Varland for five years, but it’s not the same as having a hitter or starter for five years. The value is just different.

I do have a question. I do agree that their ERA is more volatile than a qualified hitters OPS or qualified starter’s ERA. Doesn’t samples size play a big factor here? I am not ready to accept that their talent level is more volatile. I am not even sure how to compare. Do relievers have shorter careers? Maybe. How do you compare? If you are a starting position player is that equivalent to a top three reliever on a team? How many starting second basemen in 2021 are still starters at 2B in 2025? How does that compare to relievers? I don’t know. I am ready to accept that talented relievers are more volatile.

In Varland’s case he has one partial season of success as a reliever in a sample size of batters faced that is not near stabilized. There is a good chance he is not going to replicate his performance through 49 innings this season in the next 49. His home run rate was well below his previous career rate as well as his rate in AAA. His BABIP was below his career MLB rate and AAA rate also. Both of those numbers need a pretty large samples and 197 batters faced isn’t close. His change to relief helps as there are starts mixed i. those other years but his strike out rates and walk rates aren’t that different from his career rate where he also had starts mixed in.

In Duran’s case he does have a multiple season record of success. I would expect he would remain successful. Jax does also but he has an age issue where players of all positions may begin to decline. Polanco was about the same age as Jax when traded. I thought he had a good chance to be headed towards decline. I think the same about Jax. Hendricks and Pressly were pretty solid through 33 though so the Rays could get two good years. They will be his more expensive arb2/3 seasons.

The reliever math is different. It takes multiple seasons to gain enough sample for the stats to be representative of a reliever’s skill level. The Twins should not need stats to assess Varland. Their eyes are a more reliable judge at this sample. If they believe his skill is among the top relievers in baseball they should not have made that trade. That skill should remain. If they believe that the very low home run rate and lower BABIP are not sustainable they were absolutely correct to sell high.