Current starters that could be moved to the bullpen in 2026.

[P Meyer]

18 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Even then, Lopez is coming back from injury, and Ober has had a down year (to his standards.)

Other than simply trading guys away just to trade them, I haven't seen this front office trade away players coming off down or injured seasons. Have you?

IMO, it is a mix of dropping payroll and getting value. 

 

Ober is an easy salary dump where you can get a few prospects back because he has value and then slide someone like Festa or Taj into that spot and get close to that production.  

 

Lopez, even coming back from an injury, is probably easier to trade than Ryan because Ryan's value is tough to assess. What teams have the requisite number of top prospects to get Ryan? Is there even a prospect only package that is worth trading Ryan for? Lopez on the other hand could likely be had for a prospect package and gets off salary for the Twins. Win/win in that regard. The Twins might be willing to trade Lopez to the Mariners for a package around Harry Ford. This would enable the Twins to get off Lopez's contract, and give them a catcher so they don't have to pay 10 mi for a player like Vasquez.

 

Offloading 27 mil in Lopez and keeping from having to spend 10 mil re-signing Vasquez (or his equivalent) is a nice monetary swing.

[Major League Ready]

I am going to go with Morris / Raya going to the BP and Klein or Culpepper as less obvious choices.  I think they see how Taj Bradley measures up to the numerous prospects they have and he could end up in the back of the BP.   

The flip side of this question is who are the most likely to make the rotation.   

[Chembry]

19 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I do have a question. I do agree that their ERA is more volatile than a qualified hitters OPS or qualified starter’s ERA. Doesn’t samples size play a big factor here? I am not ready to accept that their talent level is more volatile. I am not even sure how to compare. Do relievers have shorter careers? Maybe. How do you compare? If you are a starting position player is that equivalent to a top three reliever on a team? How many starting second basemen in 2021 are still starters at 2B in 2025? How does that compare to relievers? I don’t know. I am ready to accept that talented relievers are more volatile.

In Varland’s case he has one partial season of success as a reliever in a sample size of batters faced that is not near stabilized. There is a good chance he is not going to replicate his performance through 49 innings this season in the next 49. His home run rate was well below his previous career rate as well as his rate in AAA. His BABIP was below his career MLB rate and AAA rate also. Both of those numbers need a pretty large samples and 197 batters faced isn’t close. His change to relief helps as there are starts mixed i. those other years but his strike out rates and walk rates aren’t that different from his career rate where he also had starts mixed in.

In Duran’s case he does have a multiple season record of success. I would expect he would remain successful. Jax does also but he has an age issue where players of all positions may begin to decline. Polanco was about the same age as Jax when traded. I thought he had a good chance to be headed towards decline. I think the same about Jax. Hendricks and Pressly were pretty solid through 33 though so the Rays could get two good years. They will be his more expensive arb2/3 seasons.

The reliever math is different. It takes multiple seasons to gain enough sample for the stats to be representative of a reliever’s skill level. The Twins should not need stats to assess Varland. Their eyes are a more reliable judge at this sample. If they believe his skill is among the top relievers in baseball they should not have made that trade. That skill should remain. If they believe that the very low home run rate and lower BABIP are not sustainable they were absolutely correct to sell high.

What you are questioning is a direct quote from the article.  Yes, I do believe relievers are more volatile, especially ERA.  And yes, that is largely due to sample size (innings pitched).  But also with the situation they find themselves in.  I can argue, when a starter gives up 4 runs early in the game, they have time to compensate.  However, when a reliever comes into the game, typically it's towards the back end of the game and don't have the length of rope a starter does, simply due to the situation.  So, when a reliever gives up 4 runs, it significantly affects their ERA.  So, yes I understand that is volatile.  But what about underlying metrics?

Let's take a look at some top relievers from 2021 (I just picked that year because that was in the article) and look at deeper metrics to see how volatile they really are.  I will throw in a few Twins relievers as well for fun.  

ERA
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Josh Hader	1.23	5.22	1.28	3.8	2.13
Emmanuel Clase	1.29	1.36	3.22	0.61	3.23
Ryan Pressley	2.25	2.98	3.58	3.49	4.35
Jordan Romano	2.14	2.11	2.9	6.59	6.64
Devin Williams	2.50	1.93	1.53	1.25	5.44
Tyler Rogers	2.22	3.57	3.04	2.82	1.87
Luke Jackson	1.98		2.97	5.09	4.54
Johan Duran		1.86	2.45	3.64	1.93
Griffin Jax	6.37	3.36	3.86	2.03	4.47
Jorge Alcala	3.92	0	6.23	3.24	6.64

BABIP
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Josh Hader	0.237	0.333	0.264	0.23	0.206
Emmanuel Clase	0.262	0.222	0.295	0.195	0.324
Ryan Pressley	0.296	0.26	0.272	0.333	0.31
Jordan Romano	0.252	0.256	0.292	0.3	0.304
Devin Williams	0.298	0.266	0.198	0.25	0.284
Tyler Rogers	0.278	0.293	0.268	0.274	0.263
Luke Jackson	0.253		0.284	0.319	0.267
Johan Duran		0.291	0.294	0.321	0.287
Griffin Jax	0.248	0.269	0.298	0.269	0.383
Jorge Alcala	0.245	0.333	0.209	0.219	0.351

 

ERA+
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Josh Hader	213	77	331	106	193
Emmanuel Clase	333	278	132	674	129
Ryan Pressley	191	129	119	116	89
Jordan Romano	209	183	149	63	67
Devin Williams	166	209	282	331	75
Tyler Rogers	186	111	138	137	210
Luke Jackson	220		142	79	84
Johan Duran		210	179	115	224
Griffin Jax	67	116	114	207	96
Jorge Alcala	109		71	130	64

The top half of the tables are the best relivers in 2021 in terms of ERA.  The ERA table shows that year to year their ERA is volatile, but we already knew that.  Looking into deeper metrics, BABIP there appears to be some volatility year to year and loose correlation to ERA.  I really like ERA+ as a metric.  Just in case you aren't familiar, ERA+ is  adjusts a pitcher's earned run average (ERA) to account for factors like ballpark and league environment, making it easier to compare pitchers across different eras and stadiums. A league-average ERA+ is 100, with higher numbers indicating better performance (a pitcher allowing fewer runs than average) and lower numbers indicating worse performance.  Looking at the table, there is significant volatility year to in most relievers ERA+.  I am not showing it here, but there is also volatility in HR/9, even with the best most consistent relievers in the game. 

With all that being said, you are correct that reliever math is different and that is mostly due to sample size due the situation they are in when entering the game.  The ultimate question you posed was can relievers maintain some of the deeper metrics (BABIP, HR rate).  The underlying metrics show there is some volatility year to year.  Some bigger than others.  Nobody knows if Louis can maintain the metrics he is putting up this year.  Time will tell.  Ultimately, the Twins thought trading a reliever (with 5 years of control) for what they think is an everyday OF in Roden (6 years of control) and a potential 2/3/4 spot LH starting pitcher (in AAA with high upside), was worth more than Varland and his 5 years of control, whether we like it or not.