Minnesota Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

[Nick Nelson]

You've probably heard that the Twins are projected by FanGraphs to have the best bullpen in baseball this year. But the volatility of relief pitching makes it difficult to confidently set expectations, and we're already seeing why in spring training.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

TWINS RELIEF PITCHERS AT A GLANCE

Bullpen: Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Danny Coulombe, Jorge Alcala, Justin Topa, Louie Varland
Depth: Michael Tonkin, Kody Funderburk, Scott Blewett, Alex Speas, Huascar Ynoa
Prospects: Eiberson Castellano, Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, Matt Canterino

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 5th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 1st out of 30

THE GOOD
Coming out of last season, the path to an elite bullpen in 2025 for the Twins was pretty clear: part ways with underperforming vets, bring back the high-octane core at the back end, maybe add one or two solid pieces. Check, check, check. The laggards who dragged down the 2024 bullpen – Caleb Thielbar, Steven Okert, Josh Staumont Jay Jackson and Trevor Richards combined for a 5.29 ERA in 146 innings – have all moved on. The top dogs are back: Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax and Cole Sands present a stellar late-inning trio, with Brock Stewart hopefully rounding out that group by finding a way to stay healthy at last. The Twins added an accomplished veteran free agent in Danny Coulombe to round out their late-inning stable.

There just aren't many bullpens out there capable of going four or five deep with that kind of quality. Jax leads the way, and was by some measures one of the two or three best relievers in all of baseball last year. His deep pitch mix and devastating sweeper made him an overpowering weapon, and Rocco Baldelli routinely turned to Jax in the biggest moments. 

Jax and the Twins flirted with idea of a transition back to starting during the offseason, but ultimately opted to stick with what is working brilliantly. Having him as a fireman gives the Twins a big late-game advantage. Add in Durán, with his 2.59 career ERA, and Sands, who posted a 3.28 ERA and 2.63 FIP last year, and the Twins can stack power arms in the seventh, eighth and ninth. Coulombe covers them against tough lefties and can hold his own against righties. 

Stewart has what it takes to be the best of the bunch if he can stay healthy. It's a massive "if," and he's already dealing with a hamstring issue this spring, but there's a lot of optimism around the state of his arm following shoulder surgery. Signs have been positive on that front in spring training, where he was touching 97 MPH before being sidetracked by the hammy.  

Jorge Alcalá and Louie Varland are wild-cards in the middle-relief picture, with either one capable of elevating into a setup role if they can keep the homer-proneness at bay. We saw how dominant Varland could be as a reliever in late 2023 and now he'll have the opportunity to fully prepare and build up as one. We saw how effective Alcalá can be in the first half of last season; for his career he's posted a 3.64 ERA while averaging a strikeout per inning.

Another wild-card: Eiberson Castellano, the Rule 5 pick out of Philadelphia, who is trying to latch on in a long relief role. With just over a week left in camp, it remains to be seen if he'll find his way onto the 26-man roster, where he would need to stay all year in order to be kept. I would be extremely surprised if he makes the roster but he's certainly an intriguing pitcher who has flashed glimpses this spring of what the Twins saw in him.

And one to watch over the course of the summer: Connor Prielipp, the former second-round draft pick who finally appears to be healthy following a tumultuous run of arm issues. If he can keep the injuries at bay, he has a chance to be fast-tracked into the big-league bullpen and could be a huge rookie difference-maker.

THE BAD
The big question mark for me is Durán, whose continued excellence is critical to this bullpen meeting its lofty projection. Last year, after missing the start of the season with an oblique injury, the big right-hander's fastball velocity was down a couple of ticks, which played a role in his results going from great to good. His strikeouts were down and he gave up some big bops in crushing moments.

Durán did not pitch poorly last year, and his 3.86 ERA was influenced by some fluky factors that should even out, including a .321 BABIP and 61.5% strand rate (seventh-lowest out of 169 qualified MLB relievers). If his performance in 2025 is the same as last year, I'd expect better numbers, but will he maintain that level or were we seeing the start of a decline? This spring Durán has been unable to summon the same velocity he showed even last year, with his fastball struggling to touch triple digits and his repertoire failing to generate whiffs.

What happens if hitters catch up to more of Durán's pitches this year? It's going to be painful, given his occupation of the closer role. How many early hiccups would it take for Durán to move down in the bullpen hierarchy? He's earned a degree of patience over the past three years, but if the pitches aren't working as they once did, the Twins will need to be ready to adjust.

This strikes me as the biggest non-health-related concern facing the unit. (Assuming it is not health-related.) Of course, injuries will come into play in this bullpen, and they already have. The dream of having Matt Canterino splash onto the scene this summer is all but dead after his shoulder flared up again this spring. That's an extra tough pill to swallow because, in keeping Canterino on the 40-man roster, the Twins lost a couple of potentially useful arms to waivers in Ronny Henriquez and Brent Headrick. 

Not the world's greatest tragedy, but depth is depth and the Twins have already seen some of theirs whittled away. With Justin Topa and Michael Tonkin already hampered by shoulder issues this spring, the cavalry is going to be needed. How deep can the Twins dig if needed? For all the supposed quantity in last year's relief corps, the team still found itself turning to waiver pickup Cole Irvin with the season on the line in September. 

THE BOTTOM LINE
You can never have too many relief pitchers, as Twins fans were reminded last year. The talent and track record residing in this bullpen are easy to see, but health woes have already begun to surface and Durán's worrisome spring casts a shadow over the whole unit's outlook. Fortunately, wild cards like Stewart, Varland and Prielipp have the potential to offset a decline or elevate this relief corps to a new level if Durán is his usual self.

The Twins bullpen has what it takes to be the best, but projections stop mattering once they're actually put to the test. For a team that figures to be in a lot of close games, the ability of this bullpen to rebound and excel will likely prove pivotal to Minnesota's fate.

Share your thoughts on the outlook at relief pitcher below and check out the rest of our Position Analysis Series:

• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Left Field
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Center Field
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Right Field
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter
• Twins 2025 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

 

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[Mark G]

As I see it, we have the elite, the elite when they can stay healthy, the potentially elite, and the........hmmm.........the depth?  In other words the shuttle bus guys.  If the top 8 on your list stay healthy and live up to their potential, yes, we may have the best bullpen, at least one of the top 2 or 3.  If anyone goes down, or if two go down, or just plain don't pitch well, then the top 4 better have rubber arms, because I fear the depth may not be that deep.  

Let's go with glass half full this time; the top 8 are going to see us through.  Please.  😳

[mikelink45]

I just do not buy into projections on BPs.  There is nothing more volatile than the arms in the pen and I do not mean just the Twins.  Duran continues a downward trend, Jax gets injured and ???  We know that we cannot count on health, we cannot count on consistency from year to year. 

The way the BP can stay the best is if the SP go deeper and out dependency on the BP is not stressed by needing them to step up every day.

[LambchoP]

I think if we end up needing some bullpen depth guys like Prelipp, Morris and Raya could make their debuts in the pen and be a big help this year, before going back to starting next year. Our bullpens effectiveness is going to be directly related to how deep our SP can go.

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I just do not buy into projections on BPs.  There is nothing more volatile than the arms in the pen and I do not mean just the Twins.  Duran continues a downward trend, Jax gets injured and ???  We know that we cannot count on health, we cannot count on consistency from year to year. 

The way the BP can stay the best is if the SP go deeper and out dependency on the BP is not stressed by needing them to step up every day.

What is your definition of "go deeper"?

The Twins have already gone deeper than other teams. The MLB average was 5.2 innings last year. Take out the two games started by Openers and the Twins averaged 5.4. 

Digging deeper, Ryan averaged 5.9 innings per start last year and Lopez and Ober 5.8 innings each. Paddack averaged 5.2 innings and odds would suggest he'll go longer in a second year removed from TJS. The rookies averaged less than 5 innings, in part because of load management, particularly after they fell out of the race. It's logical to think that they will go longer this year as well.

Only four teams averaged more than 5.5 innings last year but it seems very feasible the Twins will be above that. It wouldn't be out of line to add a paragraph to the "The Good" section of the OP noting that the strength of the Twins rotation means their bullpen shouldn't be as stressed as others. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am 100% in agreement on Duran.  He is looking like Eddie Guardado out there:  pitching himself into trouble and then (hopefully) pitching himself out of it.

Even with Duran's velo decrease, he should still be a top-level RP.  He needs to make the necessary adjustments if he wants to regain an elite level status.  As I said elsewhere, he looks like a player that the Twins may want to trade while his value is high and the bullpen looks deep.  Better a year too early than a year too late, especially for a RP.

[Cris E]

Nick, what's your opinion on Castellano?  Your depth chart includes Topa and your first depth piece is Tonkin so there may be a place for him. Do they try to keep him? Should they?  This is the bullpen piece, take a swing.

[Jeff K]

If Castellano is good enough that the Twins want to keep him, then he is good enough to trade for him and get him in the minors where he belongs this season.

[Doctor Gast]

10 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I think if we end up needing some bullpen depth guys like Prelipp, Morris and Raya could make their debuts in the pen and be a big help this year, before going back to starting next year. Our bullpens effectiveness is going to be directly related to how deep our SP can go.

IMO our true wild cards are Prielipp, Morris & Raya. Alcala & Varland are true high-leverage RPs if managed properly. Keep Alcala at 1, nonconsecutive innings & Varland in the BP. I shared on Castellano before. I was disappointed with losing Canterino & Duran will remain a good RP but how good? RPs aren't very high on the totem pole but in the Twins case, it could be pivotal.

[Danchat]

I get the reasons to be optimistic - Jax is a beast, having Alcala/Varland/Coulombe as middle relief is better than what we usually have, and if Duran and Stewart are healthy, this could be a string unit. But there are legitimate reasons to worry about Duran regressing and I'm doubtful on Stewart making 25+ appearances due to his health. Will they stick with Alcala/Varland or option them for the likes of Blewett/Tonkin too quickly? Will Castellano prove to not be a liability when he eventually gets put into a close game?

I think Ynoa has sneaky upside as a reliever if he can stay healthy. I also wonder if some former starter prospects could make a dent in the latter half of the year like Prielipp and Raya. 

And please, if we get to the trade deadline and we're competitive but the bullpen is running out of gas, do something! I'm not asking for a massive move, but acquiring Trevor Richards and doing nothing else last year was the equivalent to flipping the bird at the fanbase. 

[jmlease1]

There's a lot of good in the Twins bullpen. I am concerned about Duran's loss of velocity, but it may well be that he's able to manage it just fine without needing to hit 102-104 consistently on the gun with the fastball. Especially since he has the excellent curve and "splinker" to rely on. (the curve has been his best pitch for the past 2 years anyways) but it's fair to be worried. Him being the primary 9th inning guy may actually help the Twins in this regard, putting him in some easier situations at times.

Jax is a monster. Sands did very well last season; it will be interesting to see whether he drops back and becomes one of those fungible relievers when you don't really know when his next good season will be, but even an average one makes him a fair option in the 6th-7th inning. Stewart's health is a huge issue, but his arm seems healthy and his stuff is filthy. That gives you 4 guys who at least from the start of the season you should feel confident in for the last couple of innings. That's a really good base.

Coulombe is another guy whose health needs to be monitored, but he's been very effective the past 3 seasons and gives you a LHP who can shut down LH hitters without giving it all back to the RH pinch hitter. He's got flexibility of use. 

Alcala is a guy I like more than most it seems; he's not consistent enough to be a real weapon, but he's also not filler. Right now he's maybe 6th in the pecking order, which is pretty great, IMHO. I feel pretty good having a guy like him being up in the 6th-7th innings, and his stock could rise again if he finds consistency again. he had a couple of bad blowups late, but he was really good last season outside of the August Implosion. 

I'm excited to have Varland transition to the bullpen full time. I think he can be really good there, and has the stuff to be a back-end guy, not a middle relief/long man. If he's able to stay refined with his fastball/cutter combo at max effort, he'll be a weapon...and he's going to start the season as likely the 7th man.

I'm fine with them giving the last slot to Castellano; he's got the stuff to hang and the last man in the bullpen isn't going to pitch very much anyways. I'd prefer the Twins make a deal on him so they can send him down as needed, but especially while we're waiting for Topa/Tonkin to get healthy.

I assumed going in to the season that the Twins would have 1-3 injuries i the bullpen either coming out of spring training or very early in the year, and that's tracking. The good thing is, none of them look too serious, and none of them are impacting our top relievers. Right now, our depth looks capable of managing through this.

things do start getting a little thinner if we have to go much beyond this; Blewett is Just Another Guy, Ynoa is still coming back from a major injury really, etc. Prielipp is an exciting arm, but hasn't thrown an inning above A-ball yet and only 30 innings as a pro. That said...he seems to be healthy, finally and the stuff is incredible. Hopefully he's starting at AA; more A-ball seems like a waste.

It's a good bullpen with the ability to be great.  Considering how deep the rotation is, this could be one of the better twins pitching staffs in a long time. here's hoping they get decent health.

[bean5302]

Brock Stewart underwent shoulder surgery last year and he has precious little track record as the pitcher he is now, throwing 97 instead of 93. One thing which has been consistent is he's always hurt. I think he's supposed to start throwing again in the next couple days.

Tier 1 - Duran, Jax.
Tier 2 - Stewart, Alcala
Tier 3 - Sands, Coulombe, Topa
Tier 4 - Varland, Tonkin, everybody else


It should be a very good bullpen. Tonkin won't be pitching for the Twins for the first couple weeks at least. Topa and Stewart are both constantly injured. I don't really care too much about who is 7th or 8th in the bullpen. They shouldn't be seeing much action where the game is actually in doubt.
 

[minman1982]

The big question mark for me is Duran. It would not surprise me if he is losing some fastball velocity just due to age and use rather than injury or other factors. How will he adapt if he can't throw at 103 MPH anymore? Does that make his other pitches less effective? 

Overall, bullpens and relief pitching are so hard to predict and project. One or two bad mistakes can wreak havoc on the stats of a reliever for quite some time. If you are only going to throw forty or fifty innings in a season, that increases the chance that fluky things can impact your overall performance.

[Blyleven2011]

I'm concerned about the Duran , rookie year was sensational  , 2nd year had some hiccups  , 3rd year injured to start the year , velocity down the rest of the season  , another eye test is he is better as a ninth inning guy than coming in the 7th or 8th inning against the opponents heart of the order ...

Use Duran correctly and it should be a good season for Duran  ...

Yes Jax was exceptional last year and I see no reason the righthander can't repeat  , such a bull dog when he shuts down an opponents inning  with 15 pitches or less , any more pitches and he's not on his game ...

Sands , can he establish himself with a quality season again this year ...

Rest of the staff needs to perform  and stay healthy  , are we a number 1 bullpen , TIME WILL TELL  ...

 

[mikelink45]

8 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

What is your definition of "go deeper"?

The Twins have already gone deeper than other teams. The MLB average was 5.2 innings last year. Take out the two games started by Openers and the Twins averaged 5.4. 

Digging deeper, Ryan averaged 5.9 innings per start last year and Lopez and Ober 5.8 innings each. Paddack averaged 5.2 innings and odds would suggest he'll go longer in a second year removed from TJS. The rookies averaged less than 5 innings, in part because of load management, particularly after they fell out of the race. It's logical to think that they will go longer this year as well.

Only four teams averaged more than 5.5 innings last year but it seems very feasible the Twins will be above that. It wouldn't be out of line to add a paragraph to the "The Good" section of the OP noting that the strength of the Twins rotation means their bullpen shouldn't be as stressed as others. 

Well I am still a believer that a starter can go 7.  If you don't like that I cannot argue the point - it is just an opinion

[DocBauer]

I'll probably repeat myself in the Duran OP, but I'm just not worried about Duran ar this point. He's still hitting 100 mph and has crossed it a couple times. He's been working on a 4th pitch...a 2 seamer I want to say?...and working on the shape of his stuff and sequencing as well. 100mph is still crazy good. Said it before, but MAYBE a slightly less velocity simply means taking off a tiny bit of his other pitches? Or just some tweaks? His BABIP in 2024 was crazy. So for now, I'm just not worried.

Jax is great.

Stewart is a question mark to some degree. He suffered a mild hamstring pull. It wasn't his arm. When he got his cleanup in the offseason he says his arm hasn't felt this good in a few years. With his usage limited, at least the first couple of months, even 40 IP makes a difference.

I've got faith in Coulombe in his role as the veteran LH who doesn't stink against RH bats. He's not a LOOGY, but he fits a certain role in the 7th...maybe the 8th once in a while...and I feel confident he's going to handle that role well.

Sands started to show real promise in 2023 before taking the next step last year. He was fantastic. He could regress some and still be very good.

I've been a fan/believer in Alcala since 2021. Just a shame he spent most of the next 2 years on the shelf. Despite a bad finish last season...probably wore out...his career numbers are a 3.64 ERA, only 123 H in 163 IP and a WHIP of 1.084! And he's a 9 K per 9 IP.  And that's from what might be our #6 pen arm? His final 2024 numbers were still really good even with a poor finish to the season. Not hard to imagine him better with a full year behind him after missing the previous two.

Varland is a bit of a wild card. We saw the potential late in 2023. We've seen the numbers and the results as a SP 1 time through the order, and they are really good. Now he gets to crank it up for 1-2 innings and 1 time through the order. He's got to prove himself still, and continue to make the permanent adjustment to the pen, but he could be a future set-up arm.

Topa was throwing pretty well the other day when I watched him Monday. The wind was crazy, he did allow a run, but he struck out 2 and was sitting at 92-93 and touched 94 at least once. I believe that was his first game back after sitting for a week or so. Not saying he's great, or ready, but the velocity seemed to be there, or close to where it needs to be.

I'm CONFOUNDED by Castellano. I've watched him a few times and the STUFF is there. I'd love to keep him. But, not unexpectedly for a young pitcher jumping from AA, the control is lacking. He's had a couple really nice appearances that give optimism he could fill the role of long man with good stuff that can fill a role, and then he's been all over the place and you just know SOMEONE ELSE would have to come out of the pen to take the ball from him and tax the pen. I just don't know if he's ready to fill even the 8th man innings filler role. And that's a shame as I'd love to keep him. I'm still hoping they can find an acceptable trade to keep him. But as has been pointed out by others previously, Topa could start at AAA, and they could see what Castellano does once the season starts, and cut him at any time.

But if out biggest worry about the pen is keeping a AA rule 5 pitcher as the 8th man, things are looking pretty good!

IF they keep Castellano to begin the season, who knows what happens. Maybe he turns a corner. Maybe he gets hurt, in which case he can go to the IL, then rehab to work some more, before coming back. Maybe he's cut. Topa sits and waits. Tonkin is what he is, a non-upside veteran middle man with a cheap contract and a recent resume as a solid 1-2 IP middle man who is available probably middle April if needed. Funderburk is still a very live arm with potential sitting and waiting.

I doubt there's many teams opening the season with the 7-8 arms projected to be in the Twins pen opening day. And there's some depth there as well. Not just the names already mentioned. IF Castellano is removed via being cut, it opens up a 40 man spot. If he's somehow traded for and kept, at least he can be optioned for another arm on the 40 man. It might also be time to just move Canterino to the ML 60 man list. You'd have to pay him a little more...peanuts to any teams payroll...and you start his service clock. But who cares? You start the clock on a 27-28yo who might never pitch again? That opens up a 40 man spot for a Blewett or anyone else not on the 40 man roster.

And IF injuries hit the pen hard...knocking on wood...nothing says starters can't be relievers in the temporary. 

Again, if the 8th spot in the pen is an issue, we are looking damn good. There's some depth. There are SP options on the roster to help fill in as well if there is a serious injury issue. And at some point, almost every team in MLB ends up calling up a "serviceable" arm or two that usually ends up cut, and re-signed again for AAA. 

Only massive injuries or massive underperformance should keep the Twins from having a solid pen for 2025.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Well I am still a believer that a starter can go 7.  If you don't like that I cannot argue the point - it is just an opinion

That would be awesome, and they will sometimes. Lopez did eight times, Ober seven, Ryan five, Paddack twice and SWR once. So almost a quarter of the time with the top three and then a couple more. There were also a dozen or so other times when the starter was given a shot, but didn’t get through the seventh. 
 

Realistically, however, I don’t see them getting past an average of 5.5-5.7 in today’s game, but that would be well above average.

 

[Mark G]

5 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

That would be awesome, and they will sometimes. Lopez did eight times, Ober seven, Ryan five, Paddack twice and SWR once. So almost a quarter of the time with the top three and then a couple more. There were also a dozen or so other times when the starter was given a shot, but didn’t get through the seventh. 
 

Realistically, however, I don’t see them getting past an average of 5.5-5.7 in today’s game, but that would be well above average.

 

I have two sons that are polar opposites in a lot of ways.  The 31 year old is a sports nut across the board, and we kick stuff around all the time for hours.  The 29 year old is not into sports much at all except for the NCAA tournament (he is loving this month).  Last year he heard me and his brother talking and actually asked what a complete game was.  I explained it to him and told him if he lives to be the same age as me or older he might live to see one someday.  😉

I believe the stats you listed for the 5 guys.  And I have to think that 23 times out of 162 games is not enough to keep a pen from overworking, and that is only 7 innings.  I still remember Bert talking on TV about the "quality start" stat when it first started to be a stat.  One got the impression he hated it, and he certainly made fun of it.  6 innings or more and 3 earned runs or less; and that is earned runs.  You can have all the unearned runs that come across.  Now 6 innings of any kind is considered a great start.  I might have to tell my son that if he lives long enough he will have to explain to his son someday what a "starting pitcher" used to be back in the day.  🙃

[IndianaTwin]

7 hours ago, Mark G said:

I have two sons that are polar opposites in a lot of ways.  The 31 year old is a sports nut across the board, and we kick stuff around all the time for hours.  The 29 year old is not into sports much at all except for the NCAA tournament (he is loving this month).  Last year he heard me and his brother talking and actually asked what a complete game was.  I explained it to him and told him if he lives to be the same age as me or older he might live to see one someday.  😉

I believe the stats you listed for the 5 guys.  And I have to think that 23 times out of 162 games is not enough to keep a pen from overworking, and that is only 7 innings.  I still remember Bert talking on TV about the "quality start" stat when it first started to be a stat.  One got the impression he hated it, and he certainly made fun of it.  6 innings or more and 3 earned runs or less; and that is earned runs.  You can have all the unearned runs that come across.  Now 6 innings of any kind is considered a great start.  I might have to tell my son that if he lives long enough he will have to explain to his son someday what a "starting pitcher" used to be back in the day.  🙃

Wait -- do you know something about my sons that I don't know? Mine have the exact same ages and similar dispositions. 😀

I was skeptical about the "quality start" at first, but have come to feel less so. As long as I define "quality start" as "kept my team in the game" as opposed to "Cy Young worthy," I think it means something. Not everything, by any means, but one of those quick-and-dirty stats that lets you look at a guy and say, "Yeah, he gave our team a chance to win."

Most any time a starter gets through six and gives up only three runs (not distinguishing between earned and unearned runs), I've got some chance of winning. If my offense has scored no runs or only one, I'm generally sunk, period. If they've scored even two, I'm a solo run from tying. And as we've seen above, six innings also means that he's gone longer than average.

The list of last year's leaders correlates pretty well with successful seasons.

QS also has a way of softening the effect of outlier games in a pitcher's ERA when the manager leaves him in after getting shelled because the bullpen is depleted, etc. Ober had 18 quality starts out of 31, which is pretty good, for example, but his ERA was only 3.98 thanks to having given up 17 of his 79 earned runs in two starts. Without those, two starts, he's a spiffy 3.18. 

I found Jose Quintana as a guy who had a virtually identical ERA+ (105 compared to Ober's 104) in a similar number of innings (170.1 to 178.2). But Quintana only had 12 out of 31 QS compared to Ober's 18 of 31. That suggests Ober kept his team in the game in a bigger percentage of his starts. I'd rather have Ober's season on my team than Quintana's.

An argument I've heard against the QS start is that it's only a 4.50 ERA, which it is for that individual game. But to keep using Ober as the example, only two of his 18 QS were exactly that figure. Every other combination in a QS, even three earned runs in 6.1 innings, lowers the ERA. I didn't do the math, but Ober's ERA in his 18 QS is likely well below the 3.18 referenced above.

I'm not advocating for this, but I do wonder if, given that starts are getting shorter, someone will start advocating for a QS starting to include two runs in five innings or more.

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

...I'm not advocating for this, but I do wonder if, given that starts are getting shorter, someone will start advocating for a QS starting to include two runs in five innings or more.

That's essentially what I call QS2. 5.0+ innings, ERA of 3.99 or less. The reason is the likelihood of winning a game. For each run your pitchers allow, the chances of winning a game drop dramatically.

Here are the winning percentages if the Twins pitchers allowed <x> number of runs, assuming ties are 50/50 win/loss. Notice after allowing more than 1 run, it's a pretty linear decline in winning percentage for every run allowed.
0 = .969 (157-5)
1 = .895 (145-17) -.074
2 = .772 (125-37) -.123
3 = .623 (102-60) -.142
4 = .500 (81-81) -.129
5 = .377 (61-101) -.123
6 = .265 (43-119) -.111

This is why 6.0 Innings and allowing 3 Runs is not really a quality start IMHO. You leave your bullpen in a situation where they need to throw 3 scoreless innings (very difficult) because if they allow another run, you're not likely to win the game. A pitcher who goes 6.0 innings and allows 3 ER (4.50 ERA) didn't give their team a good chance at a playoff record.

6.0 IP and 3 ER has a much lower chance of victory than 5.0 IP and 2 ER because the bullpen can cough up a run in the latter case and still have a great chance at winning.

[Mark G]

15 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Wait -- do you know something about my sons that I don't know? Mine have the exact same ages and similar dispositions. 😀

I was skeptical about the "quality start" at first, but have come to feel less so. As long as I define "quality start" as "kept my team in the game" as opposed to "Cy Young worthy," I think it means something. Not everything, by any means, but one of those quick-and-dirty stats that lets you look at a guy and say, "Yeah, he gave our team a chance to win."

Most any time a starter gets through six and gives up only three runs (not distinguishing between earned and unearned runs), I've got some chance of winning. If my offense has scored no runs or only one, I'm generally sunk, period. If they've scored even two, I'm a solo run from tying. And as we've seen above, six innings also means that he's gone longer than average.

The list of last year's leaders correlates pretty well with successful seasons.

QS also has a way of softening the effect of outlier games in a pitcher's ERA when the manager leaves him in after getting shelled because the bullpen is depleted, etc. Ober had 18 quality starts out of 31, which is pretty good, for example, but his ERA was only 3.98 thanks to having given up 17 of his 79 earned runs in two starts. Without those, two starts, he's a spiffy 3.18. 

I found Jose Quintana as a guy who had a virtually identical ERA+ (105 compared to Ober's 104) in a similar number of innings (170.1 to 178.2). But Quintana only had 12 out of 31 QS compared to Ober's 18 of 31. That suggests Ober kept his team in the game in a bigger percentage of his starts. I'd rather have Ober's season on my team than Quintana's.

An argument I've heard against the QS start is that it's only a 4.50 ERA, which it is for that individual game. But to keep using Ober as the example, only two of his 18 QS were exactly that figure. Every other combination in a QS, even three earned runs in 6.1 innings, lowers the ERA. I didn't do the math, but Ober's ERA in his 18 QS is likely well below the 3.18 referenced above.

I'm not advocating for this, but I do wonder if, given that starts are getting shorter, someone will start advocating for a QS starting to include two runs in five innings or more.

Isn't it neat watching two brothers, so totally different from each other, spend time with family and blend right in as though they were twins?  🫠