The 2025 Minnesota Twins, If Trades and Free Agency Didn't Exist

[Matthew Lenz]

What would a world look like where there were no trades, and no free agency? What would the 2025 version of the Minnesota Twins look like? Where would some current Twins players be? Let’s explore this hypothetical world.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Recently, Bradford Doolittle of ESPN wrote an article ($) that answered these exact questions, wherein he ranked each of the 30 MLB teams after running 10,000 simulations using 2025 player forecasts. Only players originally drafted or signed by a team via international amateur free agency counted toward their ratings. Through his methodology, the Twins ranked 17th overall and third in the American League Central behind the Cleveland Guardians (8th) and Chicago White Sox (14th). This hypothetical version of the Twins consists of nine position players, five starters, and three relievers, and just three are currently on the Twins.

Position Players: LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B), Jorge Polanco (2B), Royce Lewis (SS), José Miranda (3B), Mitch Garver (C), Brent Rooker (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), Max Kepler (RF), Luis Arraez (DH)

With the exception of Rooker, Buxton, and Miranda, it’s not surprising that this hitter group ranked 17th in Doolittle’s 10,000 simulations. The rest of the names are projected to be roughly average in 2025, which mostly aligns with their most recent seasons. The biggest concern with this lineup would be durability, as Lewis, Polanco, Garver (as a catcher) and Buxton have all suffered their fair share of injuries throughout their careers. If we had to build a bench following the same rules (minus the 10,000 simulations, of course), I’d add Ryan Jeffers at catcher, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer as super-utility options, and Nick Gordon as the fourth outfielder and Buxton insurance. 

Rotation: José Berríos, Bailey Ober, Luis Gil, Kyle Gibson, Cade Povich
Initially, I was pretty underwhelmed by this rotation, but I actually think it has solid depth—despite not having a true “ace”. It’s a bit of a wild card outside of Berríos and Ober, as Gil and Povich are unproven and Gibson is entering his age-37 season. If we were to add a spot starter or long man to this pitching staff, it would have to be David Festa or Zebby Matthews.

Bullpen: Griffin Jax, Yennier Canó, Liam Hendriks
This bullpen (like the rotation options above) is evidence of just how poorly the Twins drafted and developed pitching for much of the 2010s and 2020s. The most suitable bullpen options beyond the three relief names above are Taylor Rogers, Cole Sands, Michael Tonkin, and Kody Funderburk. Somewhat surprisingly, the pitching staff Doolittle put together ranked 15th in his 10,000 simulations.

This hypothetical version of the Twins projects for 80 wins, which is about six fewer than the real Twins are projected for. They would have 30.3% odds to make the playoffs and 0.6% odds to win the World Series.

As far as real-life Twins on the active roster, the following players would be sent back to the following organizations:

• Willi Castro to the Guardians
• Carlos Correa and Jorge Alcalá to the Houston Astros
• Christian Vázquez to the Boston Red Sox
• Austin Martin to the Toronto Blue Jays
• Pablo López to the Seattle Mariners
• Joe Ryan to the Tampa Bay Rays
• Simeon Woods Richardson to the New York Mets
• Chris Paddack to the Miami Marlins
• Jhoan Durán to the Arizona Diamondbacks
• Brock Stewart to the Los Angeles Dodgers
• Eiberson Castellano to the Philadelphia Phillies

That leaves the following players to remain somewhere in the Twins organization: Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Michael Helman.

This is an interesting exercise, as it provides an opportunity to reflect on transactions that have helped build the 2025 version of the Twins. Some of us think we should never trade prospects, but in that world, the Twins would finish with an average of 80 wins after 10,000 simulations. On the other hand, the Twins have moved some prospects in recent years (Povich, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand) and have a few division titles and a playoff series win to show for it. It surely will be interesting to revisit this exercise in the next five years, when the current wave of Twins prospects turned big-league regulars reach the end of their arbitration years.

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Which player from the hypothetical Twins do you wish they still rostered? Which one(s) did the Twins make the right call on? Join the conversation in the comments

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[Vanimal46]

How bored are the writers at Twins Daily? Spring training can’t start soon enough. 

[DJL44]

Quote

 Nick Gordon as the fourth outfielder

Umm, no. Larnach and Wallner in the OF please.

[bean5302]

Not sure how much value this exercise has. Primarily, it speaks to drafting, I guess, but some of the team was drafted/signed 16yrs ago. It just seems to be a curiosity. Still, I think it provides some real bones to to build around. I think limiting the players to team controlled periods, but allowing free agency would be more interesting as an overall viewpoint of how drafting and development have worked for the Twins. Still no trades allowed.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This is a pretty weird hypothetical.  That’s not how baseball works, and even historically there have been trades.  If people want to be entertained by it, OK, but  its lack of relevancy makes it pretty uninteresting for me.  

[MMMordabito]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Umm, no. Larnach and Wallner in the OF please.

They were until Max Kepler refused to play CF after the 357th simulation when Buxton got injured and was unavailable for the next 1,732 simulations.

[bean5302]

32 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

They were until Max Kepler refused to play CF after the 357th simulation when Buxton got injured and was unavailable for the next 1,732 simulations.

I just watched a baseball simulation in my head with Buxton chasing down a fly ball, then falling down and yelling "aahhhhhh" and twitching like it was the old Blades of Steel game. I want games to incorporate that injury logic for players now.

[DocBauer]

So Garver would start over Jeffers in this scenario? Larnach, Wallner, Helman, and Keirsey are in no man's land while Gordon is a prime 4th OF? I'm extremely puzzled by this, unless jt was designed to be ridiculous and invite debate?

BTW, that pen doesn't look bad at all. 

That team, as listed, is put together very poorly.

[twinzcynic]

"This bullpen (like the rotation options above) is evidence of just how poorly the Twins drafted and developed pitching for much of the 2010s and 2020s."

Hold on a second, I've said this before but the genius fans of the current decision makers of the Twins love to state that our pitching pipeline is amazing and so full it could burst!

That said, I'd be ecstatic to have either Gil or Povich (or Chase Petty shortly) in our rotation. Finally, I think it's hilarious (and damning) that Falvine was so in love with Jake Cave as a fourth outfielder they let Wade walk and traded Gil for him. Truly one of the front offices of all time.

[Craig Arko]

Contracted?

[miracleb]

ESPN pay wall so I can't look at the article, but I would be more interested in who finished #1 and #2.  Then, let's figure out what needs to change......to be able to finish #1......10 years from now!

[KBJ1]

So much for our supposedly strong farm system.

[Trov]

Although a fun thing to do, it really is just something for a baseball writer to do in the dead season.  Good thing pitchers and catchers report in 2.5 weeks.  Hopefully we will get some good stories on trades, not just by Twins, in coming weeks. 

[saviking]

19 hours ago, twinzcynic said:

"This bullpen (like the rotation options above) is evidence of just how poorly the Twins drafted and developed pitching for much of the 2010s and 2020s."

Hold on a second, I've said this before but the genius fans of the current decision makers of the Twins love to state that our pitching pipeline is amazing and so full it could burst!

That said, I'd be ecstatic to have either Gil or Povich (or Chase Petty shortly) in our rotation. Finally, I think it's hilarious (and damning) that Falvine was so in love with Jake Cave as a fourth outfielder they let Wade walk and traded Gil for him. Truly one of the front offices of all time.

That's what I took away. We have sucked at drafting and developing pitchers. But I feel better about the young group we have today.