The 2025 Minnesota Twins, If Trades and Free Agency Didn't Exist

Recently, Bradford Doolittle of ESPN wrote an article ($) that answered these exact questions, wherein he ranked each of the 30 MLB teams after running 10,000 simulations using 2025 player forecasts. Only players originally drafted or signed by a team via international amateur free agency counted toward their ratings. Through his methodology, the Twins ranked 17th overall and third in the American League Central behind the Cleveland Guardians (8th) and Chicago White Sox (14th). This hypothetical version of the Twins consists of nine position players, five starters, and three relievers, and just three are currently on the Twins.

Position Players: LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B), Jorge Polanco (2B), Royce Lewis (SS), José Miranda (3B), Mitch Garver (C), Brent Rooker (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), Max Kepler (RF), Luis Arraez (DH)

With the exception of Rooker, Buxton, and Miranda, it’s not surprising that this hitter group ranked 17th in Doolittle’s 10,000 simulations. The rest of the names are projected to be roughly average in 2025, which mostly aligns with their most recent seasons. The biggest concern with this lineup would be durability, as Lewis, Polanco, Garver (as a catcher) and Buxton have all suffered their fair share of injuries throughout their careers. If we had to build a bench following the same rules (minus the 10,000 simulations, of course), I’d add Ryan Jeffers at catcher, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer as super-utility options, and Nick Gordon as the fourth outfielder and Buxton insurance. 

Rotation: José Berríos, Bailey Ober, Luis Gil, Kyle Gibson, Cade Povich
Initially, I was pretty underwhelmed by this rotation, but I actually think it has solid depth—despite not having a true “ace”. It’s a bit of a wild card outside of Berríos and Ober, as Gil and Povich are unproven and Gibson is entering his age-37 season. If we were to add a spot starter or long man to this pitching staff, it would have to be David Festa or Zebby Matthews.

Bullpen: Griffin Jax, Yennier Canó, Liam Hendriks
This bullpen (like the rotation options above) is evidence of just how poorly the Twins drafted and developed pitching for much of the 2010s and 2020s. The most suitable bullpen options beyond the three relief names above are Taylor Rogers, Cole Sands, Michael Tonkin, and Kody Funderburk. Somewhat surprisingly, the pitching staff Doolittle put together ranked 15th in his 10,000 simulations.

This hypothetical version of the Twins projects for 80 wins, which is about six fewer than the real Twins are projected for. They would have 30.3% odds to make the playoffs and 0.6% odds to win the World Series.

As far as real-life Twins on the active roster, the following players would be sent back to the following organizations:

• Willi Castro to the Guardians
• Carlos Correa and Jorge Alcalá to the Houston Astros
• Christian Vázquez to the Boston Red Sox
• Austin Martin to the Toronto Blue Jays
• Pablo López to the Seattle Mariners
• Joe Ryan to the Tampa Bay Rays
• Simeon Woods Richardson to the New York Mets
• Chris Paddack to the Miami Marlins
• Jhoan Durán to the Arizona Diamondbacks
• Brock Stewart to the Los Angeles Dodgers
• Eiberson Castellano to the Philadelphia Phillies

That leaves the following players to remain somewhere in the Twins organization: Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Michael Helman.

This is an interesting exercise, as it provides an opportunity to reflect on transactions that have helped build the 2025 version of the Twins. Some of us think we should never trade prospects, but in that world, the Twins would finish with an average of 80 wins after 10,000 simulations. On the other hand, the Twins have moved some prospects in recent years (Povich, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand) and have a few division titles and a playoff series win to show for it. It surely will be interesting to revisit this exercise in the next five years, when the current wave of Twins prospects turned big-league regulars reach the end of their arbitration years.

Which player from the hypothetical Twins do you wish they still rostered? Which one(s) did the Twins make the right call on? Join the conversation in the comments