The Potentially Catastrophic Repercussions of Trading Christian Vázquez

[old nurse]

2 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

More then enough blame to  go around last year  to ensure everybody gets a taste

Can’t blame Jay Johnson. He pitched about as bad as expected 

[sweetmusicviola16]

In regard to the original title of the story, trading Vazquez would be catastrophic. If the backup/s were Camargo, Cartaya and Gasper and 50% of the catching time were given to them. If Vazquez were traded and either Diaz or McCann were signed I'm thinking it would be minimal damage. If this happened the catching situation might even be slightly better. Though I hold out that the pitching staff might be slightly worse off. 

I actually see trading Jeffers as a better idea than Vazquez. Trade Jeffers for one of the nearly ready milb C's and let Vazquez mentor the new catcher. Or you use Duran in trade for the future and soon to be present catcher.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I don’t think it makes sense to trade him for $5 million of relief, if we have to sign a similar catcher for $5 million to replace him. It would only make sense if the Twins have faith in their minor league guys.
 

As an aside, the pitching splits by catcher were interesting—weirdly similar pitching performance with either Jeffers or Vasquez.

[Shaitan]

[stringer bell]

19 hours ago, Post-Concussive Blues said:

I don’t think it makes sense to trade him for $5 million of relief, if we have to sign a similar catcher for $5 million to replace him. It would only make sense if the Twins have faith in their minor league guys.
 

As an aside, the pitching splits by catcher were interesting—weirdly similar pitching performance with either Jeffers or Vasquez.

These stats on the run prevention side coupled with the offensive numbers put up by Jeffers as compared to Vázquez show Jeffers to be the superior player by a lot. Nothing indicates that Vázquez is among elite receivers or that he is some kind of a pitcher whisperer. If he is a good guy in the clubhouse, that's good, but it doesn't turn replacement player production into someone worthy of $10M per season. 

As for arguments presented in this (and other) threads: 1) Jeffers now has four plus years in the majors, does he need a mentor? I think not. 2) Jeffers best has been when he was alternated with his catching partner. Is there any reason why he can't assume a more regular role? Maybe Rocco and his staff see reasons in the clubhouse, but Jefers is 27, big and strong. Perhaps this will be the year when he catches closer to 100 games than 80. 

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Margot doesn't look good on paper.  He looks good when no longer a TC.

Totally agree, I'm saying how he was presented to us.

[Doctor Gast]

59 minutes ago, Post-Concussive Blues said:

I don’t think it makes sense to trade him for $5 million of relief, if we have to sign a similar catcher for $5 million to replace him. It would only make sense if the Twins have faith in their minor league guys.
 

As an aside, the pitching splits by catcher were interesting—weirdly similar pitching performance with either Jeffers or Vasquez.

These stats are not credible to evaluate catcher's intangibles as I have given before but people will believe what they want to believe.

"Sabermetrician Bill James also performed research into CERA, finding that while it is possible that catchers may have a significant effect on a pitching staff, there is too much yearly variation in CERA for it to be a reliable indicator of ability."

[arby58]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There are potentially catastrophic consequences of keeping Christian Vazquez. 80 games of replacement level performance might be enough to make the team miss the playoffs.

Less than replacement level: -0.2 WAR last year. -0.3 WAR the year before. OPS+ of 60 and 64. The Twins offense collapsed down the stretch last year - having practically give away at bats from one batter in your starting lineup is not helpful.

[arby58]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Even worse if/when it's below replacement level performance.

He's been below replacement level performance according to WAR both of the last two years. How much worse can it get?

[Post-Concussive Blues]

51 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

These stats are not credible to evaluate catcher's intangibles as I have given before but people will believe what they want to believe.

"Sabermetrician Bill James also performed research into CERA, finding that while it is possible that catchers may have a significant effect on a pitching staff, there is too much yearly variation in CERA for it to be a reliable indicator of ability."

I think you’re throwing the baby out with the bathwater to dismiss season long objective data because Bill James said there was variability. Should we compare them with something more subjective, like your personal “eye test?”

Is there a point when we have enough data to draw conclusions? Here are the 2023’s catching splits:

 

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Vazquez was an -0,2 WAR last season. So was he the reason the team missed the PO's last season then? 

I try to agree with you as much as I can but this -0.2 WAR is totally off. WAR doesn't come close to evaluate the real worth of a catcher, they focus nearly entirely on slugging, little focus on defense & ignore intangibles. The real worth of a catcher has little to do with his ability to slug but more to do with his defense & intangibles. Some WAR are worse than others but this WAR is the worst I've ever seen. To answer your question. Absolutely not. Vazquez is one of the reasons that brought us out the gutters in '22 to the success we had in '23 & kept us in the wildcard hunt in '24 until we didn't, with his defense & intangibles.  

I wish we didn't need Vazquez & his salary, but we do. I wish we had an elite defensive catcher in our system but we don't. So we are doomed until we do.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

In regard to the original title of the story, trading Vazquez would be catastrophic. If the backup/s were Camargo, Cartaya and Gasper and 50% of the catching time were given to them.

There is no reason to believe that if Vazquez is traded the second catcher would catch 50 percent of the time. For example, Bo Naylor started 101 games and appeared in 115 at catcher for the Indians. That's not exactly iron man status either - there are catchers that catch more than that. Cal Raleigh started 125 games and caught in 135 last year. Shea Langeliers was 123 and 131. Logan O'Happe was 121 and 127. Etc., etc., etc.

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, arby58 said:

He's been below replacement level performance according to WAR both of the last two years. How much worse can it get?

To be fair, his fWAR was positive both years.

[arby58]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

To be fair, his fWAR was positive both years.

I don't know that it is an issue of fairness - you like your Fan Graphs stat, I like Baseball Reference's. In neither case is he going to set the world on fire - and if another catcher handles, say, 60 games a year, I highly doubt it will be catastrophic for the Twins.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Post-Concussive Blues said:

I think you’re throwing the baby out with the bathwater to dismiss season long objective data because Bill James said there was variability. Should we compare them with something more subjective, like your personal “eye test?”

Is there a point when we have enough data to draw conclusions? Here are the 2023’s catching splits:

 

Totally agree. Nearly every defensive stat these days still has yearly variation. Very few are "sticky" stats. If a catcher's intangibles aren't leading to better results on the field, what good are they? Not to mention CERA isn't the only stat in that line that Jeffers beat him at. He beat him at basically everything. Both years. The Twins pitchers have performed better with Jeffers behind the plate for 2 straight years in nearly a 50/50 split of catching starts. They have better K/W ratios, BA, OBP, and SLG (except the first year when hitters slugged slightly better with Jeffers behind the plate).

[stringer bell]

30 minutes ago, Post-Concussive Blues said:

I think you’re throwing the baby out with the bathwater to dismiss season long objective data because Bill James said there was variability. Should we compare them with something more subjective, like your personal “eye test?”

Is there a point when we have enough data to draw conclusions? Here are the 2023’s catching splits:

 

Yeah, two years of pretty rigid alternating and if one is better than the other at preventing runs, it is Jeffers. I'm sure some stats really have variability, but two years with only two catchers mean a lot of information and none of it shows a huge benefit for Vázquez to be behind the plate. 

1400 innings caught should limit a whole bunch of the variability. 1400 innings is 7-8 years of full-time work for a pitcher and that many innings would eliminate almost all of the variability. 

[Doctor Gast]

24 minutes ago, Post-Concussive Blues said:

I think you’re throwing the baby out with the bathwater to dismiss season long objective data because Bill James said there was variability. Should we compare them with something more subjective, like your personal “eye test?”

Is there a point when we have enough data to draw conclusions? Here are the 2023’s catching splits:

 

People attempt to measure intangibles but according to Sabermetrician Bill James, you can't. & I appreciate his honesty. People can make stats say whatever they want. I dismiss this data because it's unreliable there is no baby in this bathwater no matter how much you want there to be one.

[arby58]

21 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Vazquez is one of the reasons that brought us out the gutters in '22 to the success we had in '23 & kept us in the wildcard hunt in '24 until we didn't, with his defense & intangibles.  

I certainly try to agree with you as well, but this is premium hyperbole. When you have a 60 OPS+ as a regular player, you are an incredible drag on a team's offense. The defense would have to be Gold Glove worthy or the rest of your lineup absolute beasts - neither is/was the case. You make it sound like he should have gotten votes for team MVP.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

I don't know that it is an issue of fairness - you like your Fan Graphs stat, I like Baseball Reference's. In neither case is he going to set the world on fire - and if another catcher handles, say, 60 games a year, I highly doubt it will be catastrophic for the Twins.

I don't like either WAR when it comes to catchers. I'm not arguing that Vazquez is good or that losing him would hurt the Twins. I've been wanting them to replace him for 2 years. Just pointing out that there is WAR that likes him. I don't find WAR to be that valuable for catchers at all because we don't have an effective way to measure their defensive value.

[sweetmusicviola16]

20 minutes ago, arby58 said:

There is no reason to believe that if Vazquez is traded the second catcher would catch 50 percent of the time. For example, Bo Naylor started 101 games and appeared in 115 at catcher for the Indians. That's not exactly iron man status either - there are catchers that catch more than that. Cal Raleigh started 125 games and caught in 135 last year. Shea Langeliers was 123 and 131. Logan O'Happe was 121 and 127. Etc., etc., etc.

Jeffers has shown over the course of his career that he should be limited to half time. Therefore the other catcher is going to need to play half the time as well.

[arby58]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

I don't like either WAR when it comes to catchers. I'm not arguing that Vazquez is good or that losing him would hurt the Twins. I've been wanting them to replace him for 2 years. Just pointing out that there is WAR that likes him. I don't find WAR to be that valuable for catchers at all because we don't have an effective way to measure their defensive value.

Fair enough, but we have offensive measures, and there are few MLB regulars, including catchers, that have an OPS+ of 60. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins need to get some good young catchers is my takeaway.

For those who believe/ would bet that Ryan Jeffers can catch 120 games, bet the over on Buxton at 140 games. Can happen and Correa plays over 150 games too. Can and will ...

[chpettit19]

Just now, arby58 said:

Fair enough, but we have offensive measures, and there are few MLB regulars, including catchers, that have an OPS+ of 60. 

Totally agree. And I don't think his defense comes anywhere close to making up for being a complete black hole in the lineup. I'm not at all a Vazquez defender.

[sweetmusicviola16]

28 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I try to agree with you as much as I can but this -0.2 WAR is totally off. WAR doesn't come close to evaluate the real worth of a catcher, they focus nearly entirely on slugging, little focus on defense & ignore intangibles. The real worth of a catcher has little to do with his ability to slug but more to do with his defense & intangibles. Some WAR are worse than others but this WAR is the worst I've ever seen. To answer your question. Absolutely not. Vazquez is one of the reasons that brought us out the gutters in '22 to the success we had in '23 & kept us in the wildcard hunt in '24 until we didn't, with his defense & intangibles.  

I wish we didn't need Vazquez & his salary, but we do. I wish we had an elite defensive catcher in our system but we don't. So we are doomed until we do.

I totally agree. I'm not a huge WAR fan. Myles Straw is a good example of the value of WAR imo. I value Vazquez. I believe he is the best available catcher for this team for 2025. He is overpaid by my estimation. But that is due to our FO agreeing to this overpay. But we should not be trading Vazquez unless a very good secondary plan is put into action. 

How I see it, if Vazquez was getting paid 6-6.5 mil this season we would have a very good catcher at a good price.

[arby58]

1 minute ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Jeffers has shown over the course of his career that he should be limited to half time. Therefore the other catcher is going to need to play half the time as well.

He hasn't really been afforded the opportunity. He's entering his sixth MLB season - seems like it's time to 'stretch him out.'

[arby58]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins need to get some good young catchers is my takeaway.

For those who believe/ would bet that Ryan Jeffers can catch 120 games, bet the over on Buxton at 140 games. Can happen and Correa plays over 150 games too. Can and will ...

It doesn't have to be 120, but 100 seems completely reasonable.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

It doesn't have to be 120, but 100 seems completely reasonable.

Yes, 100 games should work.

[arby58]

3 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I totally agree. I'm not a huge WAR fan. Myles Straw is a good example of the value of WAR imo. I value Vazquez. I believe he is the best available catcher for this team for 2025.

MLB calculates DWAR for catchers. Both Christian and Ryan check in at 0.5, which is tied for 25th. Seriously, with a 60 OPS+, you can't be 25th among catchers in DWAR.

[Linus]

Not having a part time replacement level player hardly qualifies for catastrophic.  Having said that relying on any of the AAA catchers is putting the Cartaya before the horse. 😂

[arby58]

Just now, Linus said:

Not having a part time replacement level player hardly qualifies for catastrophic.  Having said that relying on any of the AAA catchers is putting the Cartaya before the horse. 😂

OK, that was funny. From what I hear, Cartaya is a good defensive catcher. Could he possibly do worse than a 60 OPS+ offensively?