Comparing AL Central Rosters: Part 1 (Infielders)

[Seth Stohs]

The Minnesota Twins' offseason has been pretty uneventful, but it isn’t as if the other AL Central teams are making big moves to push and pressure them. Let’s look at the projected starters for the five teams, starting with the infielders and catchers.

Image courtesy of Colt Keith (Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images), Jose Ramirez (© David Dermer-Imagn Images), Bobby Witt Jr (Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images), Royce Lewis (© Peter Aiken-Imagn Images), Andrew Vaughn (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images)

As I considered how to go about writing this series of articles looking at the AL Central rosters to see how the Twins stack up against the other teams, I realized that it has the potential to be really long. And I don’t want to do that to you, especially knowing that rosters will likely change at least a little bit over the next six to eight weeks. So I plan on splitting it into three or four parts; Infielders/Catchers, Outfielders/DH/Bench, Starting Pitchers, Relief Pitchers. 

Below, I’ll go position-by-position and post who I think will be the starter. With the name, I’ll include their fWAR from 2024. At that point, I will add a couple of sentences with thoughts on the position, but I also want to leave it to your opinion and how you choose to rank the five teams at each spot, and ultimately how to rank the five teams as a whole. Hopefully, this series can generate some good discussions. 

Catchers 
Twins: Ryan Jeffers (1.7)
Guardians: Bo Naylor (1.6)
Royals: Salvador Perez (3.2), Freddy Fermin (1.9)
Tigers: Jake Rogers (2.2)
White Sox: Kyle Teel (played in minors)

There are a couple of extremes in this grouping. I don’t know if Kyle Teel will make his MLB debut right away on Opening Day, but the Top 25 overall prospect who came to Chicago in the Sox-on-Sox trade involving Garrett Crochet reached Triple A a year ago and is very close. If he starts in the minors, Omar Narváez will likely get some more service time. On the other side is Salvador Perez, who I believe is going into his 37th season with the Royals. But he just continues to put up numbers. He will likely DH more and maybe even get some more time at first base, but it is noteworthy to see how well Freddy Fermin did in his opportunity. Jake Rogers had a down season. Bo Naylor will have to play without his brother, but having defensive whiz Austin Hedges to work with will certainly be helpful. And I’m biased, but when Ryan Jeffers is on, I’d put him with anyone in this group. 

First Base 
Twins: José Miranda (1.1)
Guardians: Carlos Santana (3.0)
Royals: Vinnie Pasquantino (1.5)
Tigers: Colt Keith (1.8) 
White Sox: Andrew Vaughn (-0.2) 

This offseason, the Twins lost Carlos Santana to his original team and Alex Kirilloff to injury-induced early retirement. For this exercise, I have José Miranda at first base, and you could put names like Edouard Julien, Mickey Gasper and others in for the Twins. We’ve seen the upside for both Miranda and Julien, and if they can perform near that level, the Twins will be happy. Santana had a remarkable season in 2024 for the Twins. He won his first Gold Glove Award and was a solid offensive contributor. Pasquantino has all the talent, but he has missed some time with injuries. He takes his walks and has the power you look for at this position. The Tigers recently noted that Colt Keith will move over to first base to accommodate Gleyber Torres's arrival. What does that mean for former top pick Spencer Torkelson, his present and his future with the Tigers? Andrew Vaughn took over at first base when José Abreu left the South Side. I think it’s fair to say that, at least, Vaughn has been better than Abreu, but he’s really struggled. He should be traded, and could perform better with a better team around him. 

Second Base
Twins: Brooks Lee (-0.3)
Guardians: Angel Martinez (0.0) 
Royals: Jonathan India (2.8)
Tigers: Gleyber Torres (1.7)
White Sox: Lenyn Sosa (0.1)

I placed Brooks Lee at second base. It’s possible that he and Royce Lewis could change places, but I went this direction. He was underwhelming in his injury-plagued partial rookie season, but I doubt any evaluators worry much about his ability to hit in the long term. Martinez (or someone) will need to replace Andrés Giménez, who was traded to Toronto. The Platinum Glove defender has struggled offensively. I still think that Cleveland will sign Jorge Polanco to play second base for a year. Speaking of trades, the Royals traded Brady Singer to Cincinnati and brought back Jonathan India, the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year. He should provide the Royals with an on-base guy at the top of the order, a missing ingredient for them in 2024. The Tigers added Torres on a one-year deal. It was clear the Yankees had no interest in bringing him back, but it could be a very nice signing for Detroit. 

Third Base 
Twins: Royce Lewis (1.2)
Guardians: José Ramírez (6.5)
Royals: Maikel García (1.1)
Tigers: Jace Jung (0.1) 
White Sox: Brooks Baldwin (0.1) 

José Ramírez is on a Hall of Fame trajectory. He has been an All-Star in six of the past seven seasons. He’s finished in the Top 6 in MVP voting six times in the past eight seasons, including three top-3 finishes. The 32-year-old is signed through the 2028 season. A typical Ramírez season, I think, remains what we Twins fans believe Royce Lewis can do if he is able to play a full season and realize his upside. Consider: in Lewis's MLB career, he has played in 152 games and has been worth 4.0 fWAR, with 27 doubles, 33 homers and 104 RBIs. That's even with his late-season struggles in 2024. The sky remains the limit. Jace Jung was a top-50ish prospect, but it will be interesting to see if the Tigers are able to add Alex Bregman. Maikel García is a nice player for Kansas City, although pushing him down the lineup with the addition of India will help him. And someone has to play third base for the White Sox. 

Shortstop 
Twins: Carlos Correa (4.3)
Guardians: Brayan Rocchio (1.1) 
Royals: Bobby Witt, Jr (10.4)
Tigers: Trey Sweeney (0.4)
White Sox: Colson Montgomery  

In 2024, Carlos Correa was well on his way to his best season since 2021, or 2017, or 2016. Unfortunately, plantar fasciitis cost him about 10 weeks of game action in the second half of the season. He was on his way to a 7-8 WAR season. And that would have been about 2.0 WAR less than what Royals shortstop Bobby Witt accrued in 2024. If not for Aaron Judge’s crazy numbers, Bobby Witt would have been the easy MVP choice. The 24-year-old fills up a stat sheet like few others. He played 161 games, led the league with a .332 average, and had a .977 OPS. He also led the league with 211 hits, including 45 doubles, 11 triples and 32 homers. He stole 31 bases and won both the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove. Equally important, I believe he has taken over the top spot in my personal favorite non-Twins player to watch, taking the mantle from Rangers shortstop Corey Seager, who stole it three or four years ago from Francisco Lindor.

Last season, the Royals paid him just $2 million in the first year of an 11-year, $288,777,777 contract that could keep him in Kansas City through the 2034 season (though he can opt out after 2030). SHould he stick around that long, the club has an option that could keep him there through the 2037 season. Bryan Rocchio is a fantastic defensive shortstop for Cleveland. Sweeney came to the Tigers in a mid-season trade, and he ended up taking over at shortstop for Javier Baez. It will be very interesting to see what AJ Hinch does at shortstop over the next couple of seasons. Colson Montgomery has been a Top 100 prospect at times and could debut in 2025.

Summary
At the beginning, I made the note that you should think through how you would want to rank each of these positions. Maybe you even want to consider degrees in 'better than'. Just for fun, I tried two exercises. 

The first chart simply ranks the teams, with "1" being the best player at each position, "2" being second best, and "5" being the worst of the group. In this case, you can see how the teams rank (at these positions) with the lowest total being the best. 

The second chart simply is a chart in which you get to divvy up 10.0 points for each position. Depending on how detailed you want to get, you can use whole numbers, as I did in the first two rows, or use fractions like in the last three rows. In my example, I have given Bobby Witt (Royals SS) five of the 10 available points. 

The intent for these is to see where each team's strengths and weaknesses may be relative to the rest of the division. As you know, it's all a matter of opinion. Even projections are calculated opinions and guesses. So, have some fun with this and make it your own. If you think Bobby Witt should get all 10 points, that's totally up to you. Or make up your own system of rank and comparison. Think you have a good system? Share it in the comments for us to all try. Even if you don't formalize your rankings in a chart, please leave a comment below with how you would rank the positions. Who would make your All-AL Central Preseason First Team? 

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Check back in coming days for the outfielders/DH/Bench and then the pitchers. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Just curious on the catcher line; how come the Twins only had 1 catcher listed (when they use 2) but the Royals had 2 listed? Thanks!

Also makes me think more moves are coming. I don't at all believe the starting 1B for the Twins is in the organization today.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I have heard the Royals connected to Kim. Who of course isn't opening day ready but when he is that would be a big boost to KC if they signed him.

[miller761]

Thanks for the comparisons. Very interesting. I feel that the success of the Twin's season will come down to our pitching staff. For that reason I am not concerned about the FO making very few moves. The team that the Twin's would field today will be very competitive and that is about all you can ask fro a mid market team.

[NYCTK]

Sitting at work, I just decided to run a fun little exercise. I wanted to see how much teams have improved themselves during the offseason (so far). Comparing the team's projected depth charts from November 5th to today: 

Team	fWAR added
Tigers	3.0
Twins	1.2
Royals	0.3
Guardians	-1.4
White Sox	-2.1

No surprises there. But what I found more interesting was that the division that was arguably the worst in baseball in 2024 has done, by far, the least to improve for 2025. 

NLW	9.5
NLE	9.2
ALE	8.6
NLC	8.0
ALW	6.6
ALC	1.0

[sweetmusicviola16]

24 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Sitting at work, I just decided to run a fun little exercise. I wanted to see how much teams have improved themselves during the offseason (so far). Comparing the team's projected depth charts from November 5th to today: 

 

 

Team	fWAR added
Tigers	3.0
Twins	1.2
Royals	0.3
Guardians	-1.4
White Sox	-2.1

No surprises there. But what I found more interesting was that the division that was arguably the worst in baseball in 2024 has done, by far, the least to improve for 2025. 

 

NLW	9.5
NLE	9.2
ALE	8.6
NLC	8.0
ALW	6.6
ALC	1.0

OK, what am I missing here? The Twins have improved by 1.2 WAR. But they've added nobody. So it must be that they are better by subtraction? 

[jmlease1]

Seems like a fairly reasonable assessment of where the Division stands for infielders right now. A few things that popped out for me:

1. 1B is pretty rotten in the AL central right now: it's hard not to pick Cleveland #1 there, but they're also hoping for Santana to hold off Father Time for yet another year. No one is really covering themselves in glory here
2. 2B shows the impact that a quality offseason move can make: India is an excellent fit for KC. Twins could do quite well here, but it's unproven
3. 3B drops off fast after Ramirez, even if you believe in Royce (which I do). And after Royce it could get quite ugly for the rest of the division
4. SS should be deeper, but holy cow Baez has utterly imploded in Detroit. Oof. 3 more years of that contract is pretty gross. 
5. C is the deepest position in the AL central infield. Didn't have that on my bingo card, but sure looks accurate, especially if you like Teel (which I do) for CWS.

It'll be very interesting to see where we think of the Twins at 2B and 3B at the end of the season. depending on health & development, we could be ecstatic...or searching for answers.

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

OK, what am I missing here? The Twins have improved by 1.2 WAR. But they've added nobody. So it must be that they are better by subtraction? 

No, because this has the free agents already removed from the roster.

Digging deeper, looks like it's nearly all adjustments made on defensive projections. Team defense collectively is -1.8 runs below average, opposed to -11.4 at the end of the season. Half a run here, half a run there. 4.4 runs better for Royce Lewis seems to be the single biggest adjustment. 

So...that's cool I guess...

[Joshua Kraayenbrink]

41 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

... what I found more interesting was that the division that was arguably the worst in baseball in 2024 has done, by far, the least to improve for 2025. 

NLW	9.5
NLE	9.2
ALE	8.6
NLC	8.0
ALW	6.6
ALC	1.0

The ALC had 3 out of the 6 AL postseasons spots, including 3 out of the 4 ALDS spots. I wouldn't say they were "the worst in baseball in 2024". They may not have the outstanding teams like the Yankees or Dodgers in the division, but I'd rather have 4 out of the 5 teams in the division competing for a wildcard spot versus 1 or 2 teams running away with the division.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

So basically 3rd in infielders in a weak division.
OF will probably not be much better.  Ditto with RP.  SP should be better...

How does anyone consider this team (as is) even a borderline playoff team?

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks, Seth for all the hard work you put into this. I'd prefer to use Fangraph projected WAR & use the combined WAR at that position. IMO the WAR you gave for Santana is super high, For 3 WAR, he'd have to be a monster masher. On Fangraph Santana (553 PAs) is listed at 1.5 & Miranda (455 PAs) is also at 1.5 combined 1B WAR, CLE is at 2.0 & MN is at 1.9. Very close, putting away projections I pick MN over CLE.

Looking at catching combined WAR, CLE is at 3.5 & MN is at 3.1. There is a vast difference between Jeffers 1.7 WAR & Naylor's 2.8 WAR but looking at the tandem of Jeffers/ Vazquez to Naylor/ Hedges, the difference is slight.

[jmlease1]

17 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So basically 3rd in infielders in a weak division.
OF will probably not be much better.  Ditto with RP.  SP should be better...

How does anyone consider this team (as is) even a borderline playoff team?

Tied for 2nd is basically 3rd? Right now I think it's very fair to have KC on top and the Twins and Guardians battling for #2. (and is it a weak division, or have we just been trained to think of it as weak? CWS might be the worst team in MLB, but no one else is a pushover)

why do you think our RP won't be well-rated? there's depth and top-end quality in our bullpen. The only thing we don't have is a proven LH specialist (which may be overrated anyways).

It's a borderline playoff team because they were borderline last season, haven't lost much, and have top end talent (Correa, Buxton, Lopez) high ceiling younger players (Lewis, Lee) and quality throughout the squad (Wallner, Jeffers, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax) that would slot in for most other playoff teams.

If they end up 2nd or 3rd in the division at almost every position and the division is good...that's a team without a lot of weaknesses.

[Parfigliano]

I like TC's chances.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

All seems highly subjective to me but I guess you do estimates based on the best data available.  Some players will excel this season vs last season and some will regress or get injured for major lengths of time, hence the subjectivity IMO.

Or they could all just stay the same.

[IndianaTwin]

7 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just curious on the catcher line; how come the Twins only had 1 catcher listed (when they use 2) but the Royals had 2 listed? Thanks!

Also makes me think more moves are coming. I don't at all believe the starting 1B for the Twins is in the organization today.

Yes. At catcher, you almost have to list two players for each team. 

[tony&rodney]

Comparisons are always fun and people like to add a pile of analytics to claim which players ranks where. I'm wondering if you could pick a player at each position how you might choose.

C) Salvy, Naylor Jeffers, Rogers, CWS / Need to consider both catchers really. 

1B) Pasquantino, Keith, Santana, Miranda & CWS tie / Lewis fits at 1B.

2B) India, Torres, Guardians & Twins tie, CWS / Hoping for Eeles or Keaschall.

3B) Ramirez, Lewis, Detroit, KC, CWS /  Detroit could still sign Bregman. He is perfect for  Fenway.

SS) Witt Jr., Correa, Rochio, Sweeney, CWS / Correa needs to stay healthy.

Infield) Kansas City - easily, Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit, CWS

There are still a couple of months to go. Deals can be made.

[bean5302]

I'd expect Teel to be the starter out of the gate for Chicago. It's not like that team has anything to lose. Not sure why the 2nd best catcher WAR last year gets the lowest score, but sure.

Honestly, it's way too hard to judge what the Twins are bringing to the table. It's possible Willi Castro is the starting 3B next year. Just don't know.

[tony&rodney]

50 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'd expect Teel to be the starter out of the gate for Chicago. It's not like that team has anything to lose. Not sure why the 2nd best catcher WAR last year gets the lowest score, but sure.

Honestly, it's way too hard to judge what the Twins are bringing to the table. It's possible Willi Castro is the starting 3B next year. Just don't know.

Chicago will likely leave Teel in the minor leagues for at least a couple of months, at least for control purposes.

Right, it is pretty much impossible to predict the Twins infield. Correa at shortstop and then ..... whatever. Just using the guys who played for the Twins last year, we are unsure who plays where or even if it is an open competition. Perhaps Falvey has a set infield. There is just no way to know what that guy has in the plans.

[Seth Stohs]

14 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just curious on the catcher line; how come the Twins only had 1 catcher listed (when they use 2) but the Royals had 2 listed? Thanks!

Also makes me think more moves are coming. I don't at all believe the starting 1B for the Twins is in the organization today.

Yeah, I included Fermin in the catcher spot just because Perez played a lot of 1B and DH and Fermin should probably catch more in 2025. For the other teams, I just had one and included one in the bench (to be posted on Tuesday). 

As far as 1B, I see little reason for them to go after anyone there. I mean, Pete Alonso isn't an option. I think I'd rather take my chances on one, if not both, Miranda and Julien hitting like we know they can. They already added Gasper, Mike Ford, and brought back Yunior Severino. 

[Seth Stohs]

14 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I have heard the Royals connected to Kim. Who of course isn't opening day ready but when he is that would be a big boost to KC if they signed him.

terrific defensive middle infielder, though I can't imagine them moving Witt or India. So, he'd probably take over for Garcia at 3B. Not sure that'd alter my rankings too much, but an improvement. 

[Seth Stohs]

13 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Sitting at work, I just decided to run a fun little exercise. I wanted to see how much teams have improved themselves during the offseason (so far). Comparing the team's projected depth charts from November 5th to today: 

 

 

Team	fWAR added
Tigers	3.0
Twins	1.2
Royals	0.3
Guardians	-1.4
White Sox	-2.1

No surprises there. But what I found more interesting was that the division that was arguably the worst in baseball in 2024 has done, by far, the least to improve for 2025. 

NLW	9.5
NLE	9.2
ALE	8.6
NLC	8.0
ALW	6.6
ALC	1.0

Agree with those who wondered how the Twins have gained 1.2 WAR when they have added zero players at the MLB level this offseason. 

Also, many years, the AL Central is the worst in baseball, and clearly the 2024 division housed the epically-bad White Sox. However, the Guardians had the second-best record in the AL. KC and Detroit were 5th and 6th, and the Twins were 8th, still over .500 despite their epic collapse. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Yeah, I included Fermin in the catcher spot just because Perez played a lot of 1B and DH and Fermin should probably catch more in 2025. For the other teams, I just had one and included one in the bench (to be posted on Tuesday). 

As far as 1B, I see little reason for them to go after anyone there. I mean, Pete Alonso isn't an option. I think I'd rather take my chances on one, if not both, Miranda and Julien hitting like we know they can. They already added Gasper, Mike Ford, and brought back Yunior Severino. 

We will see. I would prefer a more known quantity, especially on defense at 1b, than they currently have. I expect any addition to be via trade. 
I also have a hard time banking on anyone you listed 

[Riverbrian]

18 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So basically 3rd in infielders in a weak division.
OF will probably not be much better.  Ditto with RP.  SP should be better...

How does anyone consider this team (as is) even a borderline playoff team?

Because they are just rankings made by one guy. 

The rankings look reasonable but in the end they are just rankings made by one guy. 

[NYCTK]

5 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

However, the Guardians had the second-best record in the AL. KC and Detroit were 5th and 6th, and the Twins were 8th, still over .500 despite their epic collapse. 

Sure, but helps that three off those teams cleaned up against the White Sox. Guardians only ones that didn't ironically. 

AL West probably a bit worse last year but not by much. 

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just curious on the catcher line; how come the Twins only had 1 catcher listed (when they use 2) but the Royals had 2 listed? Thanks!

Also makes me think more moves are coming. I don't at all believe the starting 1B for the Twins is in the organization today.

Is Royce at 1B a crazy idea at his relatively young age?…….I assume he would push back.

To me, Lee is our best 3B defensively. Can piece 2B together with, potentially Royce, or Castro/Keaschall/Martin/Julien. Seems Lewis at 1B stabilizes the position with a player of proper offensive profile. No additional cost move. Lowest potential for injury and throwing errors. Thoughts?

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Is Royce at 1B a crazy idea at his relatively young age?…….I assume he would push back.

To me, Lee is our best 3B defensively. Can piece 2B together with, potentially Royce, or Castro/Keaschall/Martin/Julien. Seems Lewis at 1B stabilizes the position with a player of proper offensive profile. No additional cost move. Lowest potential for injury and throwing errors. Thoughts?

I think with the offseason steam of Lewis trimming down, I'd imagine he will either be our primary 2b or 3b this season, with Lee (hopefully his back is healthy) being the primary at the other spot.

I am curious if Keaschall could play his way into the 1B mix. I'd love it if Miranda could stay healthy for a full season too. But with a lot of offseason left, it'll be interesting to see what trade(s) they make to augment the roster.

[Seth Stohs]

12 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So basically 3rd in infielders in a weak division.
OF will probably not be much better.  Ditto with RP.  SP should be better...

How does anyone consider this team (as is) even a borderline playoff team?

Well... the OF and DH and Bench will be posted Tuesday sometime... I don't think the Twins outfielder will rank as poorly as you might thing. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Because they are just rankings made by one guy. 

The rankings look reasonable but in the end they are just rankings made by one guy. 

I actually laughed when I read this...

Stop bringing logic to an emotional argument.🙂

[NYCTK]

20 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So basically 3rd in infielders in a weak division.
OF will probably not be much better.  Ditto with RP.  SP should be better...

How does anyone consider this team (as is) even a borderline playoff team?

I think we all know the reason this is a borderline playoff team is only because the AL Central is the worst division in baseball so a mediocre team (or 3!) is able to sneak in. 

Vegas has the line at 83.5 wins. I'd bet the under if I were a betting man. Easy money. 

[LambchoP]

I don't think we have anywhere near enough offense to be a playoff team. Especially with Correa, Buxton and Lewis basically only being part time players. We need at least one more impact bat, preferably at first base. Still need another SP and a LHRP too. I don't expect the team to fill any of these holes externally unfortunately:(. New owners in town yet?!?