Twins Have "Shown Little Appetite" In Trading Pablo Lopez

[Brock Beauchamp]

Alex Speier of The Boston Globe wrote a throwaway line near the bottom of his recent piece about the Red Sox pursuing pitching help this offseason, saying the Twins have "shown little appetite for dealing righthander Pablo Lopez."

In an offseason completely devoid of Twins rumors, this is good news. Speier is a highly-respected Red Sox beat reporter and is tuned into the Sox's pursuit of high-end starting pitching, which has been active with news since the completion of the 2024 season.

And the Sox are engaged with almost everybody right now. They've met with every pitcher expected to receive a nine-figure deal. They were runner-up on Juan Soto. They're in on Alex Bregman. They kicked the tires on Willy Adames. They've been circling Garrett Crochet for weeks.

Long story short, if anybody is keenly aware of who is available on the current market and where they're wasting their time, it's the Boston Red Sox.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I have this idea in my head, based on a few tea leaves I feel like I've seen (especially from Dan Hayes) that the Twins and Boston could match up. It's a working theory, and I feel like I'm Charlie Day with the beautiful mind gif going on at the moment, but hear me out...

1) Boston wants pitching. They've also said they would listen on Tristan Casas.

2) The Twins want to be creative to upgrade the roster.

3) Dan Hayes, even today, said the Twins may have to be open to trading one of Jax, Duran or Ober to help the roster.

4) My theory is, the Twins won't trade players coming off of injured or down years. They want players coming off of a good year, or even a career year, so that their value is at their highest.

5) Throwing out the idea of Jax going back to starting (in my opinion) isn't a throwaway. I think that COULD happen, especially if they trade someone like Ober.

Basically, a move that centers around Ober for Casas (with other parts going each way, depending, but I do think more would come back from Boston than would go out for us) could help both teams in my opinion. And IF Jax can make the switch to starting, then it certainly would be cheaper to add another solid bullpen piece than it is to add another starter.

Yes, I'm crazy. But this is also the type of move I could see being discussed.

 

[tony&rodney]

Tristan Casas has the potential to hit 40 home runs per year. He is also very slow and brutal as a first baseman. The Twins currently have a pile of guys who fit best in the DH slot. I'm hopeful for an improvement in converting balls in play into outs. 

The Twins should be tough in any discussions about Pablo Lopez. He is good, signed, and projects for around 200 effective innings per year. Boston may get desperate. I'm not keen on any deals for non catching prospects or Abreu. They do have a couple of players worth acquiring in Jarren Duran and Kyle Teel. Lopez and Jeffers for Duran and Teel deal makes some sense. The particulars are open. The Twins could add Castro or something. MLB starting pitching value is going through the roof right now. Falvey & Sons need to keep lines of communication open with teams and consider multiple options. There are opportunities.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I have this idea in my head, based on a few tea leaves I feel like I've seen (especially from Dan Hayes) that the Twins and Boston could match up. It's a working theory, and I feel like I'm Charlie Day with the beautiful mind gif going on at the moment, but hear me out...

1) Boston wants pitching. They've also said they would listen on Tristan Casas.

2) The Twins want to be creative to upgrade the roster.

3) Dan Hayes, even today, said the Twins may have to be open to trading one of Jax, Duran or Ober to help the roster.

4) My theory is, the Twins won't trade players coming off of injured or down years. They want players coming off of a good year, or even a career year, so that their value is at their highest.

5) Throwing out the idea of Jax going back to starting (in my opinion) isn't a throwaway. I think that COULD happen, especially if they trade someone like Ober.

Basically, a move that centers around Ober for Casas (with other parts going each way, depending, but I do think more would come back from Boston than would go out for us) could help both teams in my opinion. And IF Jax can make the switch to starting, then it certainly would be cheaper to add another solid bullpen piece than it is to add another starter.

Yes, I'm crazy. But this is also the type of move I could see being discussed.

 

A LOT more would need to come back from Boston. Like, Casas has little if any excess value, imo. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

A LOT more would need to come back from Boston. Like, Casas has little if any excess value, imo. 

Ok, what is a LOT? 

I don't see Teel coming back with him. But maybe there is a lower level pitcher they like, along with maybe a good reliever who is already at the mlb level. 

Would Casas, a good reliever and a decent arm/prospect be enough? Would you want something else?

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Ok, what is a LOT? 

I don't see Teel coming back with him. But maybe there is a lower level pitcher they like, along with maybe a good reliever who is already at the mlb level. 

Would Casas, a good reliever and a decent arm/prospect be enough? Would you want something else?

I'm not all that interested in Casas, but I could be wrong. I'd need to think about this more. 

I think if you deal Ober, you are getting back the equivalent of 1 top 50 and 1 top 100 prospects, plus one more good prospect. He's a healthy number 2/3 on a cheap deal. That's worth an awful lot, given the scarcity of SP. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not all that interested in Casas, but I could be wrong. I'd need to think about this more. 

I think if you deal Ober, you are getting back the equivalent of 1 top 50 and 1 top 100 prospects, plus one more good prospect. He's a healthy number 2/3 on a cheap deal. That's worth an awful lot, given the scarcity of SP. 

Fair enough. I don't think it has to be Casas. I certainly think he would fit the bill (when healthy) of a middle of the order type bat that we have missed since Nelson Cruz left. His 2023 numbers are awesome, and I would hope he could get back to that type of production.

So yeah, maybe this is just a thought process here. But I could see a fit somewhere between the two teams. We'll see.

[nicksaviking]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not all that interested in Casas, but I could be wrong. I'd need to think about this more. 

I think if you deal Ober, you are getting back the equivalent of 1 top 50 and 1 top 100 prospects, plus one more good prospect. He's a healthy number 2/3 on a cheap deal. That's worth an awful lot, given the scarcity of SP. 

I'd rather have Ober than Casas by a country mile. I'd guess Casas would be compelled to slide to a full time DH role before too long and he looks like a 25-30 HR guy, not a 30-40 HR guy. Also, his K% went from 26% to 31% last year. That has to be a sizable red flag.

In the end, I'd bet the difference between Casas and Miranda is significantly smaller than the difference between Ober and whomever replaces him.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd rather have Ober than Casas by a country mile. I'd guess Casas would be compelled to slide to a full time DH role before too long and he looks like a 25-30 HR guy, not a 30-40 HR guy. Also, his K% went from 26% to 31% last year. That has to be a sizable red flag.

I'd in the end, I'd bet the difference between Casas and Miranda is significantly smaller than the difference between Ober and whomever replaces him.

He wasn't healthy in 2024. I was thinking more, if he were healthy, he could get back closer to his 2023 numbers.

But I see where you are coming from. I wasn't at all saying I'd do Ober for Casas 1-1. I'd need another good piece or two. But if it is 2 good pieces (whatever that looks like) that's when I'd listen.

[dxpavelka]

good

[SteveLV]

Mentioned on the Correa thread, but if they move Carlos they might as well trade Lopez too.

Orioles want starting pitching, and they have some wonderful young, cheap players in their farm system and introduced to the majors: Targets would be obvious guys like Mayo, Basallo (package Vasquez too), Bradfield Jr., and Reilly.  Good trade partner if they lose Burnes.

[Otaknam]

No reason to trade the mainstays of the starting rotation of Ober, Ryan or Lopez. Without a solid rotation you have no chance to win. A cursory look at Casas shows that he has some power, strikes out a lot, and hits left handed. This team needs a right handed power hitter, especially for when Buxton and Correa again go down with injuries. Casas isn’t the answer. 

[cmoss84]

Correa and Lopez

for

Casas, Duran, and a few lottos. 

[tony&rodney]

So, once again, we get a little press on Pablo Lopez via MLB.com. ESPN's Jeff Pasan suggests that the Twins are "listening" on deals for Lopez. 

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

So, once again, we get a little press on Pablo Lopez via MLB.com. ESPN's Jeff Pasan suggests that the Twins are "listening" on deals for Lopez. 

Smart. He still relieves the most salary and brings the highest return given how expensive starting pitching is. We are subjected to whatever Falvey thinks he is worth. Any team in the AL East makes sense. I still think Baltimore, especially after they lose Burnes.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

We are subjected to whatever Falvey thinks he is worth.

Don't know if this is scary or not. I'm of the mind to hold an AL East team hostage for a big return, something like Jarren Duran from Boston. While that seems unreasonable on the surface, the Red Sox know they have outfielders and can buy a couple of bats. They need better pitching in order to play with the Yankees. Orioles - Samuel Basallo is interesting as is Heston Kjerstad. Baltimore won't pay the price and Falvey should not cave in negotiations. Prefer to keep Pablo unless the price is paid. The Twins don't need any more sorta decent players.

[notoriousgod71]

I think it's funny one of casas's similarity scores is Kennys Vargas.

It is really going to annoy me if they deal any pitcher right now.

[Cory Engelhardt]

51 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Don't know if this is scary or not. I'm of the mind to hold an AL East team hostage for a big return, something like Jarren Duran from Boston. While that seems unreasonable on the surface, the Red Sox know they have outfielders and can buy a couple of bats. They need better pitching in order to play with the Yankees. Orioles - Samuel Basallo is interesting as is Heston Kjerstad. Baltimore won't pay the price and Falvey should not cave in negotiations. Prefer to keep Pablo unless the price is paid. The Twins don't need any more sorta decent players.

I’d hate to trade him. I would. I don’t see Boston trading Duran, but I would imagine they would start with Casas and Meyer. If Baltimore does offer Basallo and say another of their high end guys (Mayo?) and maybe a lottery ticket, it could get interesting. I bet new hitting coach Borgschulte would have an opinion to share. 

[Doctor Wu]

Unless the Twins are fully committed to a rebuild you do NOT trade Lopez. 

[laloesch]

On 12/20/2024 at 6:16 AM, Doctor Wu said:

Unless the Twins are fully committed to a rebuild you do NOT trade Lopez. 

I have to agree.  Do not trade Lopez unless you are committed to a full rebuild and at that point it's time to unload Buxton, and Correa.

[DJL44]

Sean Manea just signed for more than Pablo Jorge Lopez is getting paid. I would much rather have Lopez.

[Brandon]

If the Twins trade Lopez, they better get value back and include all of Vazquez salary in a trade.  Maybe send a million or two max but that’s it.  And for talent coming back it needs to include a hitter or C that is pre arbitration and a pitching prospect in high minors that is highly rated..  since we are trading Paddack we can take back a little salary in this trade so…..

[bean5302]

On 12/23/2024 at 8:40 AM, DJL44 said:

Sean Manea just signed for more than Jorge Lopez is getting paid. I would much rather have Lopez.

To be fair, Jorge Lopez was pretty good with Baltimore for before being traded to the Twins in 2022, but I'd probably take Manea. Actually, Jorge Lopez wasn't terrible last year, either. 2.89 ERA? (3.94 FIP), and he was downright good with the Cubs after the Mets traded him (2.03 ERA, 3.20 FIP). I honestly did not see that coming.

Also. :p