The Case For Simeon Woods Richardson as 2024 Twins MVP

[Eric Blonigen]

As silly as this might sound, this team might never have been good enough to collapse, but for the rookie who stood the gap when things threatened to blow up right away in the spring.

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

What does it mean to be the most valuable player? Do they have to be worth the most WAR on the team? Should they be the highest-paid? Maybe the clubhouse leader is the most valuable. Some say availability is the best ability, so should the MVP be the team iron man? There are many different ways to define value. The 2024 season was somewhat unique, in that there wasn’t a clear-cut team MVP. Because of that, I would argue that Simeon Woods Richardson was the most valuable to the team’s success.

To begin with, let’s look at some of the more conventional choices. If Carlos Correa were healthy all season, he certainly looked the part, with his typical great defense and solid hitting. However, he missed two months when it mattered most. Willi Castro had the inside track, for a while, as did Byron Buxton. Alas, the former was a non-factor in the second half, and the latter also missed time right when the team could least afford it.

Bailey Ober shoved for the majority of his starts, but laid some eggs as well. Sometimes, in the absence of a clear-cut choice, it’s helpful to really break it down. Value connotes getting more than you expect, more than you are paying. Through this lens, who was most instrumental to the team’s success?

To be clear, Simeon Woods Richardson was not the best Twins player this season, by any measure. Overall fWAR? That goes to Correa. bWAR? Same deal. Pitcher fWAR? Pablo Lopez. Wins? Still Pablo. Win Probability Added? Griffin Jax. All of those point to measurable statistical value. However, sometimes your most valuable player is the one who provides unexpected stability and fills a vital role without letting the team miss a beat, and Woods Richardson checks that box.

While the 2024 season was an immense letdown to everyone with a last name other than Pohlad, it’s important to recognize the fact that the Twins were in position to make the playoffs until the last few games of the season. And, that’s despite both the Royals and Tigers dramatically outperforming their preseason projections. If not for Woods Richardson, the Twins' season would have ceased being competitive probably a month sooner than it did.

The main argument for Woods Richardson as team MVP is the depth behind him. No other position would have experienced as big a drop-off as starting pitcher. Looking at the options,  David Festa entered the season nearly ready for a promotion to the Twins. But, the Twins needed more depth than just one more pitcher, and that depth just wasn’t there. When Anthony DeSclafani blew out his elbow in camp and Louie Varland blew out his rotation spot in April, Woods Richardson was there to fill the hole that had been gashed into Minnesota's starting rotation.

Behind Festa, the options weren’t great. Zebby Matthews got shelled in his first season in the majors. That makes sense, considering that if things had gone according to plan, he probably wouldn’t have gotten called up until midseason next year. After Matthews would have been Andrew Morris (even less ready); Randy Dobnak, who’s just not a major-league starter; or a Quad-A guy like Caleb Boushley. Any of those pitchers would likely have led to an additional four or five losses over the course of the season, when compared to the generally competitive starts made by Woods Richardson.

Going from an almost-afterthought headed into the season, when Woods Richardson got his chance, he never looked back. Despite running out of gas after surpassing his career high in innings in late August, Woods Richardson pitched to a 4.17 ERA and was worth 1.8 fWAR. Overall, that’s good fourth starter territory. Before tiring, his results were very solidly mid-rotation, to the point that he was set to be an assumed playoff starter after Joe Ryan went down for the year. Through his Aug. 21 start — the last before he reaching his prior innings maximum — he threw 112 innings of 3.69 ERA ball, while allowing a wOBA of just .287.

Aside from his results, his velocity was up, as was his strikeout rate. His walk rate was down. His WHIP was just 1.18. He was reliable, not missing a start. Despite being a rookie, he demonstrated a calm presence on the mound. He had three pitches with positive run values (but don’t look at his changeup). This is despite not having a single functional pitch in his previous limited experience with the Twins in 2022 and 2023. All of that is very, very promising.

Look, is Woods Richardson an ace? No. Can he get there? No, probably not. But, he doesn’t need to be. Giving the Twins nearly a full season of solid, mid-rotation results when called upon was the most unexpectedly valuable thing that happened this season, and he is the Twins’ 2024 most valuable player as a result.

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As we roll out our year-end awards this week, Twins Daily writers will be making the cases for their favorite candidates for Twins MVP. Do you buy Woods RIchardson's case for the honor? Who would be your choice, if not? Weigh in.

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[DJL44]

Quote

To be clear, Simeon Woods Richardson was not the best Twins player this season, by any measure.

He's not the MVP. You successfully contradicted your entire article.

[rv78]

I don't understand the mentality of thinking.... that he performed better than expected. Why did they accept him in a trade if they didn't think he'd be a decent pitcher? Is the goal,.. to fill the minors with Randy Dobnaks? If anything, one should be critical of the FO for bypassing him for a DeSclafani or Varland. Those two literally forced their hand to go with him when their obvious choice was someone else. How's that for evaluating talent? Can we say Gallo and Wallner? Same situation. Or Margot and Martin? Same thing again. 

[TwinsDr2021]

Is this a joke?

[S Bart]

TD must be having a tough time thinking about potential topics.

[thelanges5]

Nice to see the Berrios trade starting to bear fruit. 

[Linus]

I don’t know about MVP but Sim was really important to the Twins. He clearly performed better than one could reasonably expect. Sim starting instead of Barland probably added 3-4 wins. 

[Rosterman]

Yes, what he did was totally unexpected. And, as we saw, he did have a limit to the quality of innings and starts he could do for the season.

 

MVP? Naw. Others had to come in and either win or lose the games. Notably, probably, Cole Sands.

[IndianaTwin]

I get where you went with this, but if you were going to use that argument, I'd suggest that Willi Castro is a better choice.

Whereas SWR went 133 innings (and 28 starts), with a 99 ERA+ that protected us from seeing more of Varland, Matthews and Festa, Castro went a similarly average 102 OPS+, but actually led the team in plate appearances and saved us from a lot more of some combination of Julien, Margot, Martin, Farmer and Lee.

[LonelyseatinMOA]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He's not the MVP. You successfully contradicted your entire article.

Please understand that titles are supposed to get you to click and read the article. Also understand that the title is an excuse to highlight an under appreciated Twins player and is a thought experiment exploring what it means to be a Most Valuable Player, the author is taking a more literal approach(who was most valuable to the team not; who was the best on the team). You may have missed the part where he said he is making the case for SWR, "making the case" is not something you have to do for someone who obviously and clearly should be awarded the title MVP.

If you disagree that's fine, make your case. That's what the comment section is for. What the comment section is not for is pithy little statements denigrating the author and making this place more toxic. If you don't want to engage meaningfully with these articles please just keep it to yourself, you don't have to be here 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, LonelyseatinMOA said:

You may have missed the part where he said he is making the case for SWR, "making the case" is not something you have to do for someone who obviously and clearly should be awarded the title MVP.

It is weird to have an author say "This player is clearly not the best choice but I'm going to make the case for him anyway." What is the point of that article? Are we going to get a similar article for everyone on the team? If so, I'll opt out of engaging in the "Making the Case for Ronny Henriquez as 2024 Twins MVP" article.

[thelanges5]

Jax or Sands. Otherwise there is so much inconsistency and injury time that there aren’t a lot of standouts. 

[Doctor Gast]

Simms was not expected to contribute anything to this club by most fans & maybe even the head honchos. But by his extra effort, he helped to make us more respectable, keeping us in games & winning games he started in a disappointing season. In a disappointing season, Simms is a bright spot as a rookie.

[shabbos1]

There was no 2024 Twins MVP.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Team MVP? That's Carlos Correa. Team fell off a cliff without him. 

But that doesn't take away from what SWR accomplished. Really liked what he showed in 2024 and I think there's big time upside going forward.

[The Mad King]

UVP - unexpected valuable player

[joefish]

My vote goes to Santana.

[bean5302]

Only on TwinsDaily would a back end rotation arm get a potential MVP vote. 28 games started 1.8 fWAR. Even had the Twins made the playoffs, it'd be pretty crazy to bring Sim into this discussion.

WAR = Wins Above Replacement. Meaning Sim was worth less than 2 wins over a Caleb Boushley or an Adam Plutko or Randy Dobnak type pitcher. It's not that Sim did a bad job or didn't take a massive leap forward in production, but there's plenty to be concerned about in regard to how he finished the season and the fact he was worn out despite pitching only 133.2 innings. His velocity dropped back to early season numbers in September, and instead of like in the early year, hitters tee'd off on him. Does that mean the scouting reports are out and Sim will need to hold 94mph to be successful? Tough to say.

Correa 4.3
Buxton 3.7
Lopez 3.2
Castro 3.1
Ryan 3.1
Santana 3.0
Ober 2.9
Jax 2.6
Wallner 2.1
---------------
SWR 1.8