The Case For Simeon Woods Richardson as 2024 Twins MVP

What does it mean to be the most valuable player? Do they have to be worth the most WAR on the team? Should they be the highest-paid? Maybe the clubhouse leader is the most valuable. Some say availability is the best ability, so should the MVP be the team iron man? There are many different ways to define value. The 2024 season was somewhat unique, in that there wasn’t a clear-cut team MVP. Because of that, I would argue that Simeon Woods Richardson was the most valuable to the team’s success.

To begin with, let’s look at some of the more conventional choices. If Carlos Correa were healthy all season, he certainly looked the part, with his typical great defense and solid hitting. However, he missed two months when it mattered most. Willi Castro had the inside track, for a while, as did Byron Buxton. Alas, the former was a non-factor in the second half, and the latter also missed time right when the team could least afford it.

Bailey Ober shoved for the majority of his starts, but laid some eggs as well. Sometimes, in the absence of a clear-cut choice, it’s helpful to really break it down. Value connotes getting more than you expect, more than you are paying. Through this lens, who was most instrumental to the team’s success?

To be clear, Simeon Woods Richardson was not the best Twins player this season, by any measure. Overall fWAR? That goes to Correa. bWAR? Same deal. Pitcher fWAR? Pablo Lopez. Wins? Still Pablo. Win Probability Added? Griffin Jax. All of those point to measurable statistical value. However, sometimes your most valuable player is the one who provides unexpected stability and fills a vital role without letting the team miss a beat, and Woods Richardson checks that box.

While the 2024 season was an immense letdown to everyone with a last name other than Pohlad, it’s important to recognize the fact that the Twins were in position to make the playoffs until the last few games of the season. And, that’s despite both the Royals and Tigers dramatically outperforming their preseason projections. If not for Woods Richardson, the Twins' season would have ceased being competitive probably a month sooner than it did.

The main argument for Woods Richardson as team MVP is the depth behind him. No other position would have experienced as big a drop-off as starting pitcher. Looking at the options,  David Festa entered the season nearly ready for a promotion to the Twins. But, the Twins needed more depth than just one more pitcher, and that depth just wasn’t there. When Anthony DeSclafani blew out his elbow in camp and Louie Varland blew out his rotation spot in April, Woods Richardson was there to fill the hole that had been gashed into Minnesota's starting rotation.

Behind Festa, the options weren’t great. Zebby Matthews got shelled in his first season in the majors. That makes sense, considering that if things had gone according to plan, he probably wouldn’t have gotten called up until midseason next year. After Matthews would have been Andrew Morris (even less ready); Randy Dobnak, who’s just not a major-league starter; or a Quad-A guy like Caleb Boushley. Any of those pitchers would likely have led to an additional four or five losses over the course of the season, when compared to the generally competitive starts made by Woods Richardson.

Going from an almost-afterthought headed into the season, when Woods Richardson got his chance, he never looked back. Despite running out of gas after surpassing his career high in innings in late August, Woods Richardson pitched to a 4.17 ERA and was worth 1.8 fWAR. Overall, that’s good fourth starter territory. Before tiring, his results were very solidly mid-rotation, to the point that he was set to be an assumed playoff starter after Joe Ryan went down for the year. Through his Aug. 21 start — the last before he reaching his prior innings maximum — he threw 112 innings of 3.69 ERA ball, while allowing a wOBA of just .287.

Aside from his results, his velocity was up, as was his strikeout rate. His walk rate was down. His WHIP was just 1.18. He was reliable, not missing a start. Despite being a rookie, he demonstrated a calm presence on the mound. He had three pitches with positive run values (but don’t look at his changeup). This is despite not having a single functional pitch in his previous limited experience with the Twins in 2022 and 2023. All of that is very, very promising.

Look, is Woods Richardson an ace? No. Can he get there? No, probably not. But, he doesn’t need to be. Giving the Twins nearly a full season of solid, mid-rotation results when called upon was the most unexpectedly valuable thing that happened this season, and he is the Twins’ 2024 most valuable player as a result.

As we roll out our year-end awards this week, Twins Daily writers will be making the cases for their favorite candidates for Twins MVP. Do you buy Woods RIchardson's case for the honor? Who would be your choice, if not? Weigh in.