Intro to Twins Payroll 2025: Twins Will Need to Increase Payroll (or Dump More Core Players)

[Teflon]

12 hours ago, umterp23 said:

How does lewis go from $740K this year to $2.5M in '25 under the category of team control?  Team control should equal mlb minimum increase to a Julien/Wallner level.  

That confused me, too. Lewis isn't eligible for arbitration for another year.

[mnfireman]

18 minutes ago, Teflon said:

That confused me, too. Lewis isn't eligible for arbitration for another year.

Baseball Reference has him listed as Pre-arb, FanGraphs has him listed as Arb1. Not sure which is correct.

[mnfireman]

9 hours ago, Jeff K said:

Royce Lewis situation is especially concerning.  He really appeared to lose interest.

He said he was tired......

[nicksaviking]

11 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

If they can't find a way to offload Vasquez.....this is going to be an ugly offseason.

What cuss word were these ellipsis replacing?

[thelanges5]

 

[thelanges5]

3 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

 

Twins (14)

• Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
• Diego Castillo (5.001): $1MM
• Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM
• Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
• Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
• Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
• Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
• Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
• Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
• Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
• Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
• Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
• Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
• Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM

[Jocko87]

9 hours ago, ashbury said:

Baseball-reference.com lists Twins 2024 payroll at $135.76M.

Depending on how all the pieces are counted, maybe there's room?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-misc.shtml

 

6 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Yes. That figure is closer to what I was remembering than the $122M in the OP. 

 

This was my first take too but he qualifies it as a 26 man payroll in the text.  Nobody has a 26 man payroll, good reminder this is napkin figures. 

It was $131m on Fangraphs. 

It was never $122m.  Odd he would use that number...

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

What cuss word were these ellipsis replacing?

They all work.

[TheLeviathan]

55 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

 

Twins (14)

• Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
• Diego Castillo (5.001): $1MM
• Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM
• Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
• Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
• Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
• Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
• Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
• Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
• Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
• Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
• Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
• Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
• Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM

My quick math is 38M for that.  The other guys are 93M.  So 131M based on those projections.

Cool, -1 million is plenty of room to add talent right?

[DJL44]

Looks like Alcala spent enough time on optional assignment to gain the extra year of team control.

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I saw that two of the Twins hitting coaches have been let go (Popkins) or are likely to be reassigned to the minors (Shomon) if not let go. I do expect a shakeup on the pitching side as well.

The biggest shakeup the Twins could and should do to improve quality of the business is a complete shakeup of the marketing and operations staff. I live in LA so maybe the marketing is better than what I read here, but it sure sounds like the Twins are stuck in the 1970s or 1980s where all you were selling was a baseball game, not an entertainment experience. People now want more. You need to have more giveaways, bobble head nights, after game concerts, group promotions, free or heavily discounted tickets to schools to fill up the bleachers, etc. You can either drive attendance by having an elite team, something no one really seems to be able to do year after year other than the Dodgers and the Yankees, or you can make the ballpark an entertainment experience that people want to have which also includes a baseball game. That's what the Twins need to create and I just don't think Dave St. Peter is the guy who can do that.

Dave St. Peter has been out of touch for what can only be counted in decades now rather than years.  The single greatest thing the Twins could do to improve their long term outlook is fire him or shuttle him away to a corner office.

Basic competence would be a massive upgrade.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Baseball Reference has him listed as Pre-arb, FanGraphs has him listed as Arb1. Not sure which is correct.

Spotrac has him listed as Arb 1 (of four years) as a Super-Two player. 

[IndianaTwin]

20 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

My quick math is 38M for that.  The other guys are 93M.  So 131M based on those projections.

Cool, -1 million is plenty of room to add talent right?

There's probably a couple non-tender candidates in the mix -- Castillo, Tonkin, maybe Kirilloff. 

Also, Alcala already has a contract for $1.5M. If he's double-counted and already in your $93M, those four knock $6M off your total.  

[thelanges5]

How much are the jersey patches worth? 3M or Medtronic pay for Willi Castro?

[chi-town twins fan]

Thanks for this intelligent analysis, John. One thing I've been thinking about that I haven't seen anyone discuss yet is what motivates the Pohlads' thinking on cutting payroll. Of course, it's the money, but I think it's more than that. The question is, which community do they value? It's clearly not the community of Twins' fans, but rather that of their fellow owners: they'd rather show their loyalty to that group by slicing payroll than seek the approval of the team's fans. It's a continuation of what Carl did back in the bad old days of contraction: the Pohlads seem quite willing to sacrifice the fan base to earn status among the small community of MLB owners (and it's not even all of the owners: the playoffs this year are heavily loaded with teams whose owners were willing to buck the trend and spend extra money).

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

There's probably a couple non-tender candidates in the mix -- Castillo, Tonkin, maybe Kirilloff. 

Also, Alcala already has a contract for $1.5M. If he's double-counted and already in your $93M, those four knock $6M off your total.  

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, chi-town twins fan said:

Thanks for this intelligent analysis, John. One thing I've been thinking about that I haven't seen anyone discuss yet is what motivates the Pohlads' thinking on cutting payroll. Of course, it's the money, but I think it's more than that. The question is, which community do they value? It's clearly not the community of Twins' fans, but rather that of their fellow owners: they'd rather show their loyalty to that group by slicing payroll than seek the approval of the team's fans. It's a continuation of what Carl did back in the bad old days of contraction: the Pohlads seem quite willing to sacrifice the fan base to earn status among the small community of MLB owners (and it's not even all of the owners: the playoffs this year are heavily loaded with teams whose owners were willing to buck the trend and spend extra money).

Which owners are part of the community? Which owners are bucking the trend?  

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

There's probably a couple non-tender candidates in the mix -- Castillo, Tonkin, maybe Kirilloff.   

I think I would keep Tonkin. They couldn't find anyone better for $1.5M last offseason.

[stringer bell]

14 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Baseball Reference has him listed as Pre-arb, FanGraphs has him listed as Arb1. Not sure which is correct.

He’s on the border of Super 2. I think he’ll qualify for arbitration. 

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think I would keep Tonkin. They couldn't find anyone better for $1.5M last offseason.

You don't need to pay 1.5 million for a man that was DFA'd 3 times last season.

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

You don't need to pay 1.5 million for a man that was DFA'd 3 times last season.

Not to mention I'd rather they focus on finding players that weren't DFA'd 3 times last season.

 

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Not to mention I'd rather they focus on finding players that weren't DFA'd 3 times last season.

They'll probably sign a bunch of pitchers who weren't DFA'd 3 times but only because they pitched the whole season in AAA.

Arbitration salaries aren't guaranteed in December. If they sign someone better they can cut him. They can also say "we offer $1M, take it or leave it" and then pick him back up off waivers in May for a higher price.

[bean5302]

MLBTradeRumors.com released their arbitration estimates for the 30 teams. The Twins have the 2nd highest number of Arb eligible players in MLB behind the Cubs' 14. Most teams have 10 or fewer. MLBTR also expects Royce Lewis to hit Super 2 status. I am surprised only with the seemingly very low figure for Griffin Jax. Fangraphs' model has Jax at more like $4.5MM if I remember right, but who knows?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html

Twins (13)

• Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
• Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM (Twins hold $1.5MM club option/$55K buyout)
• Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
• Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
• Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
• Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
• Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
• Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
• Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
• Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
• Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
• Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
• Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM

 

[Linus]

I’m thinking about 2025 the lack of progress by our younger players really casts a doubt over next year. If one assumes they are not spending in free agency and that they are not bringing Santana back it looks like this to me regarding the lineup. 
 

Buxton and Correa are written in pen. So are Vázquez and Jeffers. Not because either is great they simply have nobody else. That 3 spots covered. 
 

Questionables

Larnach Wallner Julien Lee Miranda Lewis Martin and Kiriloff. I have some optimism about Larnach and Wallner as the league has seen them made adjustments and they have adapted. The rest are total questions in my mind. 
This group has two other common denominators: they are all subpar or worse fielders. Lee will eventually be good I think. They all are subpar or worse baserunners. Martin has sufficient speed but lacks instincts and judgement. The rest are just sleds. Kind of speaks to the profile of player they are drawn to. 
So we need to fill 5 spots in the everyday lineup from that group. Anybody feeling good about the chances that we find 5 productive players out of that group of 8?

I think Falvey is going to make a couple trades ( right handed hitting outfielder, good lefty reliever, slugging first baseman?) and he is going to have to connect on all of them.   2025 is shaping up to be a do or die year for all involved. 

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, NYCTK said:

You don't need to pay 1.5 million for a man that was DFA'd 3 times last season.

I don't know the number of folks that need to be protected from Rule 5, but freeing up his roster spot would also be a benefit. 

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I don't know the number of folks that need to be protected from Rule 5, but freeing up his roster spot would also be a benefit. 

Not many this year.....I think there will be PLENTY of room on the 40 man this year.

[IndianaTwin]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not many this year.....I think there will be PLENTY of room on the 40 man this year.

Thanks. Do you know where a list is? I haven't been able to find one. 

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Thanks. Do you know where a list is? I haven't been able to find one. 

There's a thread in teh minor league area, also, Fangraphs sort of helps here, but you need to look person by person, I think.

[IndianaTwin]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There's a thread in teh minor league area, also, Fangraphs sort of helps here, but you need to look person by person, I think.

Which I also started, about three weeks ago. 😀

But thanks, I hadn't seen that there have been responses in the last couple days. 

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Not to mention I'd rather they focus on finding players that weren't DFA'd 3 times last season.

 

DFA'd and selected off waivers each time is still arguably more promising than the dreck we DFA'd and no one took off our hands and we added again later on anyway.  You pay a premium for that kind of desirability.  😀