The Cost of Standing Still: How Padres Exemplify What Twins Should Have Done at Trade Deadline

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, FargoFanMan said:

. You think Falvey and Levine are stupid? Really? Come on.

I think they are for one reason , they believe they are the smartest people in the room and take no responsibility for there blunders ...

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, KikiMN said:

Does someone get fired if we don't make progress in the post season?

Someone should  ( pitching , hitting  and a third base coach ) for sure ,  next level  FO and Rocco ,  that's up to owners  and I've haven't seen them make a right decision in a long time  ...

[1985Fan]

1 minute ago, TopGunn#22 said:

That's a good point 1985Fan.  The situational hitting on this team has been and still is atrocious.  It's not just that they can't get the clutch 2-out hit.  It's that they strike out SO MUCH and seldom ever make a "productive out" by advancing the runner on 2nd base with nobody out to 3rd base.  

We don't bunt.  We don't hit-and-run.  We rarely steal bases.  We are seldom are aggressive on the base paths.  These are all "in-game" situations that we consistently fail at that are frustrating.  We need a philosophical change in how we approach these situations at bat by at bat. 

We seem to be a team of "guess hitters."  Julien looks completely out of synch.  Buxton seems to "pre-determine" that he's going to swing at whatever the 2-0 pitch is because "it's gotta be a good pitch to hit...right??"   

Agree 100%! Molitor made a comment during one of the extra inning games after an AB that the hitters were expecting FB when ahead in the count. He said that after 2-3 AB’s facing the pitcher, hitter should know the pattern is breaking ball or off speed, not FB. Really critical comment on the coaching staff and the players. 
Cleveland did not crush the ball against the Twins. But they were much more aggressive stealing bases to get in scoring position, putting the ball in play, and putting pressure on the defense. During the recent team slump, they have reverted to the station to station, wait for the three run home run philosophy that was a failure first half of last year. It looks like they’re back to trying to pull everything instead of hitting the pitch the other way and making contact. I blame the manager for not bunting more, calling for a steal, or even hit and run to try jump starting a morbid offense. 

[mikelink45]

The comments have warned me out.  I'm afraid the only thing to say is that we are the twins we are doing what the twins do. I have read about our front office, our manager, and our owner since 1961.  Different names same stories.   

[BH67]

In three years, Matthew, you will understand how much San Diego paid for this decision in terms of its future competitiveness. As for this year, I wouldn't bet on them getting past the Division Series. These Twins, of all teams, hit well off Tanner Scott in August.

[stringer bell]

25 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

That's a good point 1985Fan.  The situational hitting on this team has been and still is atrocious.  It's not just that they can't get the clutch 2-out hit.  It's that they strike out SO MUCH and seldom ever make a "productive out" by advancing the runner on 2nd base with nobody out to 3rd base.  

We don't bunt.  We don't hit-and-run.  We rarely steal bases.  We are seldom are aggressive on the base paths.  These are all "in-game" situations that we consistently fail at that are frustrating.  We need a philosophical change in how we approach these situations at bat by at bat. 

I think that every team in baseball will lament their lack of situational hitting. The Twins have been bad, but most teams are. The Red Sox performance last night with seemingly infinite chances to win the game would be Exhibit A.

The personnel on this team is not suited to a running game--full stop. The leader in steals is again Castro, but he's 14 for 23, not a winning percentage. They have made huge progress in making contact and last night was a prime example. However, in the end making soft contact doesn't pay off and currently many Twins are not making hard contact. The list of hitters that are struggling is long--Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers, Vázquez, Santana, The list that is doing well is pretty short. That is similar to the first twenty games of the year, but the problem now is exacerbated by a rookie-laden starting rotation in uncharted territory and an overworked and suspect bullpen.

[Otaknam]

2 hours ago, karcherd said:

We don't know if it was ownership or the FO that caused the inactivity at the trade deadline.  Ownership has stepped up in the past when needing money at the trade deadline and they knew more about the tv deal for this year at the deadline.  The FO has a history of waiting out the market even when they have money to spend and then scrambling to make a move after every other team has.  This happened in both the offseason and at the trade deadline.

This front office is risk averse and I don't think they should be given a pass, because I believe based on their history they sat back and then there was nothing left because they were passive.

 

This is on ownership. The FO would have acquired more pitching if the Pohlads allowed it. I guess they forgot the business adage “ You have to spend money to make money.” Now here they are, dragging themselves towards the finish line, likely being passed the surging Tigers. What a disappointing season!

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

While it's true he wanted to see them win before he passes, the change didn't happen because he got sick. He jacked up expenditures long before that. 

He was one of the billionaires that understood being rich has no value if you're not investing it in your community. He was well known to invest in San Diego, particularly homeless initiatives. 

Meanwhile our owner started earning his wealth by making people homeless. Go figure. 

I'm sure Carl is looking up at his family and smiling at their financial prudence. 

I mean that's factually incorrect. He had non-Hodgkins Lymphoma back in 2011-2012 and it came back in 2018. 2 full seasons before he spiked the payroll. 

And almost all billionaires "invest in their community." The Pohlad Family Foundation literally works with homeless. The Twins community fund "invests in their community." 

Again, not a fan of the Pohlads and am not trying to provide any cover for them, but at least speak facts. And I'd do some actual research on Carl Pohlad. He did start collecting loans in 1939, but he started earning money well before that in a variety of ways in both California and Washington while he was in college. The story that he was "making people homeless" during the great depression is greatly exaggerated. He didn't even graduate from high school until 1934. Was in college until 1939. Which, if my memory serves was the end of the great depression. He was then drafted for World War 2 in 1942. He was working in fields and selling used cars until the very end of the great depression.

[AKTwinsFan]

It's time to get out of the Balley Sports broke as a joke broadcasting. If the Timberwolves and Lynx can figure out a new broadcasting network it's time to jump on board with them. It could be lucrative and good for player retention.

[karcherd]

5 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

This is on ownership. The FO would have acquired more pitching if the Pohlads allowed it. I guess they forgot the business adage “ You have to spend money to make money.” Now here they are, dragging themselves towards the finish line, likely being passed the surging Tigers. What a disappointing season!

We will never truly know, that is my point.  This front office has been risk averse and not very proactive.  It is easy to say it is only ownership without knowing.  I am saying I think it is on both.

 

[terrydactyls]

10 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

Agree 100%! Molitor made a comment during one of the extra inning games after an AB that the hitters were expecting FB when ahead in the count. He said that after 2-3 AB’s facing the pitcher, hitter should know the pattern is breaking ball or off speed, not FB. 

Exactly.  Here's my prehistoric example.  I played a little American Legion baseball in 1965.  After going two for two in pinch hitting roles, I got my first start against a pitcher that we knew threw fastballs about 150 MPH (some exaggeration for dramatic effect).  I was batting 9th.  I watched our first 8 hitters take a first-pitch fastball right down the middle.  So when it was my turn, I started my swing when the pitcher began his windup.  It was a first-pitch fastball right down the middle.  I lined the ball right over second base.  Unfortunately, they were playing me not to be able to pull the ball and it went right to the shortstop who was positioned about two steps to the left of second base.  BUT, the point is still valid (I think).

[Maybe Next Year]

2 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

The signs all point to money. The TV fiasco aspect has hamstrung this franchise. When your bullpen is showing signs of failing, one of your top pitchers goes down and you turn to rookie pitchers who are approaching they’re most innings ever it points to money. The fact that their were guys on the waiver wire who could have helped in august and you’re not willing to take on 5 million points to money. And that message comes from accounting which points to ownership. The Joe Pohlad “right size” interview points to money. When the front office makes moves every deadline (good or bad) except the last 2 points to the tv situation which points to money. 

 I’m not sure if all you Pohlad haters realize this but KC’s payroll is $10m less than the Twins and Detroits is $20 million less than the Twins. The Braves, Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, White Sox, Mariners and others are all higher than the Twins payroll and none of them look like they will make the playoffs.
My point is this- spending money doesn’t guarantee you anything. An efficient and capable front office and a manager who has some baseball sense instead of relying on his computer spewed analytics is just as if not more important. 

[bean5302]

 

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

While I am by no means a pocket protector for the Pohlads, and have been incredibly vocal on these boards since November about how terribly they've handled everything since the playoffs, and think they could absolutely spend more if they wanted to, you're missing a really important piece of the Padres decisions...Peter Siedler was dying. He went crazy on spending because he wanted to bring his team a championship before he passed. Unfortunately that didn't happen. And they've cut back on spending since. Sielder said "eff this" because he knew he was running out of time. That's a significantly different situation to be saying "eff this" in.

Yep. Same as Mike Illitch when he exploded payroll up to the $200MM mark for the Tigers in the early 2010s. Same as Charlie Finley did for the Oakland A's in the 80s into the early 90s. When owners are on their way out and they're just chasing a dream, they'll open up the wallet wide because they can.

The Padres were forced to steeply cut payroll because Siedler had stretched the payroll to the point the team and ownership was in violation of MLB liquidity rules. It's ironic the World Series win might come a year after his death.

[D.C Twins]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

The San Diego Padres are a great example of what the Twins could be if they had an owner that wasn't awful. The padres used to be owned by old losers too, but the Krocs sold the team. The team passed through some different hands before arriving where they are now. 

Ten years ago, the two franchises weren't too dissimilar. Beautiful ballpark in downtown area, comparable market size (although Twin Cities are larger), similar franchise value, similar payroll. 

And then, something happened. Peter Siedler bought out the rest of the owners and said, 'eff this, why is a billionaire running a sports franchise like a McDonald's and not like a team trying to be exciting and win a championship?' 

And since then, the Padres entire culture has changed. Sure, they lost $60 million in 2023...but the franchise grew $200 million in value. So why would a billionaire care? 

Padres are out there spending, and trying, and the fans are rewarding them. They're going to the park. They're going from passive fans to loyal fans. The investment is paying off. 

The Mets are trying the same thing, but obviously the market isn't at all comparable. But I can tell you Mets fandom in the city is no longer a punchline. It's a common occurrence. The Mets are exciting. 

And the Twins could be too. 

This... This...aaaaaaaaaand.... THIS!

[NYCTK]

31 minutes ago, BH67 said:

In three years, Matthew, you will understand how much San Diego paid for this decision in terms of its future competitiveness. As for this year, I wouldn't bet on them getting past the Division Series. These Twins, of all teams, hit well off Tanner Scott in August.

They traded a lot of men, but it was basically one prospect and additional flyers. And both those prospects are the type that SD probably did well receiving any value for. Two SP with allure but no actual success. 

I like what SD is doing. 

[NYCTK]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I mean that's factually incorrect. He had non-Hodgkins Lymphoma back in 2011-2012 and it came back in 2018. 2 full seasons before he spiked the payroll. 

And almost all billionaires "invest in their community." The Pohlad Family Foundation literally works with homeless. The Twins community fund "invests in their community." 

Again, not a fan of the Pohlads and am not trying to provide any cover for them, but at least speak facts. And I'd do some actual research on Carl Pohlad. He did start collecting loans in 1939, but he started earning money well before that in a variety of ways in both California and Washington while he was in college. The story that he was "making people homeless" during the great depression is greatly exaggerated. He didn't even graduate from high school until 1934. Was in college until 1939. Which, if my memory serves was the end of the great depression. He was then drafted for World War 2 in 1942. He was working in fields and selling used cars until the very end of the great depression.

I apologize, I read he'd been fighting his illness for months before his passing. That's on me. 

But, the point stands. A billionaire towards the end of his life realizing obscene wealth is obscene. And might as well spend it. 

[terrydactyls]

I did a little research on the two trades the Padres made for relief help just to add some context to this article.  The numbers after the names of the players the Padres gave up are their prospect rankings.  Any comments added to the ranking are from MLB.com at the time of the trades.

The Padres made the following trade with the Marlins:

Received:  Scott (two-month rental) and Hoeing (middle inning reliever)

Gave up:  Beshears {not ranked but playing well in high-A), Snelling (#2 and dropping rapidly), Mazur (#8), Pauley (#12)

The Padres made the following trade with the Rays:

Received: Adam (under contract through 2026)

Gave up:  JD Gonzalez (#28), Lesko (#5 and dropping rapidly), H. Bush Jr. (#20)

The Twins' prospects that match the above rankings are:

For Scott & Hoeing:  #2 Emmanual Rodriguez, #8 Gabriel Gonzalez, #12 Billy Amick.  And they would have to add a propspect ranked lower than #30.

For Adam:  #5 Kaelen Culpepper, #20 Kalai'l Rosario, #28 Khadim Diaw

Would you make these trades?

[NYCTK]

22 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

 I’m not sure if all you Pohlad haters realize this but KC’s payroll is $10m less than the Twins and Detroits is $20 million less than the Twins. The Braves, Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, White Sox, Mariners and others are all higher than the Twins payroll and none of them look like they will make the playoffs.
My point is this- spending money doesn’t guarantee you anything. An efficient and capable front office and a manager who has some baseball sense instead of relying on his computer spewed analytics is just as if not more important. 

Kansas City is actually a small market unlike the Twins. But you know what they did this offseason and trade deadline? Spent money to improve their team. And we should expect them to again. 

I don't think anyone's saying spending money is a pathway to guaranteed success. But announcing that you're cutting payroll after a decent season sure is a message that ownership doesn't want to invest to win. 

Every dollar they spend is purely calculated for ROI. 

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, Fezig said:

In defense of the front office. Their track record or trading for pitchers is atrocious. That is, of course, unless they are looking to trade for pitchers to place on the IL. 

Maeda, Sonny Gray, Jake Odorizzi and Jaime Garcia were good trades.  (Jamie Garcia had one effective start before the Twins traded him again but that still counts).

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, terrydactyls said:

I did a little research on the two trades the Padres made for relief help just to add some context to this article.  The numbers after the names of the players the Padres gave up are their prospect rankings.  Any comments added to the ranking are from MLB.com at the time of the trades.

The Padres made the following trade with the Marlins:

Received:  Scott (two-month rental) and Hoeing (middle inning reliever)

Gave up:  Beshears {not ranked but playing well in high-A), Snelling (#2 and dropping rapidly), Mazur (#8), Pauley (#12)

The Padres made the following trade with the Rays:

Received: Adam (under contract through 2026)

Gave up:  JD Gonzalez (#28), Lesko (#5 and dropping rapidly), H. Bush Jr. (#20)

The Twins' prospects that match the above rankings are:

For Scott & Hoeing:  #2 Emmanual Rodriguez, #8 Gabriel Gonzalez, #12 Billy Amick.  And they would have to add a propspect ranked lower than #30.

For Adam:  #5 Kaelen Culpepper, #20 Kalai'l Rosario, #28 Khadim Diaw

Would you make these trades?

I gotta push back because they didn't give up any prospect nearly as touted as Emmanuel Rodriguez. As you pointed out, that particular prospects value was dropping rapidly. He may still show value but could definitely be a bust. 

[NYCTK]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

Yep. Same as Mike Illitch when he exploded payroll up to the $200MM mark for the Tigers in the early 2010s. Same as Charlie Finley did for the Oakland A's in the 80s into the early 90s. When owners are on their way out and they're just chasing a dream, they'll open up the wallet wide because they can.

The Padres were forced to steeply cut payroll because Siedler had stretched the payroll to the point the team and ownership was in violation of MLB liquidity rules. It's ironic the World Series win might come a year after his death.

Best owner in sports are the ones that do this before their on their deathbed. 

Mark Cuban. Steve Cohen. And, yeah, Steinbrenner.

Steinbrenner was a terrible owner when he tried to meddle with the baseball operations, but he built the single most recognized sports franchise in the country and one of the only global brands in sports. Because he loved the team and wanted to win above all else. 

[Brandon]

Looking back it did seem like the bullpen is where we needed to add.  The Twins did drive up the price of Kukichi for Houston.  The Twins were right not to pay that price.  The Twins could have used one more high leverage bullpen arm but we did have lots of depth options.  The real problem is no one was thinking the offense would crater as Correa and Buxton were out for most of the last two months and Lewis slumped badly during that time.  So did Miranda and Julien / Lee combo and All Star Castro and Kepler all slumped.  Wallner, Farmer, Santana, Jeffers, and Larnarch have been the offense. With a spurt of Velazquez for a month after the break.  There was no way to plan for the offensive collapse.  But that is the biggest reason why we are here.  
 

I suspect having another high leverage arm might have prevented a game losing blow up or two and that right now that really matters but having a better offense would have put us in first place.  
 

though this article is spot on in attacking for not getting a reliever,  it wasn’t as big of a need at the deadline as it has been the last 30 days.  The offense was humming along and so was our pitching too.  Not letting payroll go up a million or two for a reliever acquisition is inexcusable that is why everyone is so mad and rightfully so.  I hope in future seasons we are able to spend a little to go for it.  Atleast so we have the optics of going for it. 
 

And while pitching was humming along there were concerns with Paddack being hurt and Woods-Richardson was approaching his career high in innings pitched.  But glad they didn’t acquire a crap starter and didn’t pay a higher price for Kukichi.  

[1985Fan]

I agree that Twins needed BP additions. But I disagree that they should have spent prospect capital at the deadline. They should have added during the off season when prices were cheaper (my assumption), not at the deadline. 
With this FO history of BP trades, giving up significant prospects for relief pitching would be a problem. I think it’s better they didn’t mortgage the future on this team that can’t hit and has a manager and hitting coach that do nothing to help. 
If they had spent to add Scott and/or other arms, that wouldn’t have done anything to improve this offense.
 

[Rufus]

3 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Hind site is good site.  How many years have the Padres thrown money, big money out the window and prospects away for players and it has blown up in their faces. The Padres may be hot now, but I'll bet they fold easily in the playoffs.  The Twins traded a couple of years ago for Mahle and Lopez and look how that worked out.  At the time those both looked like decent deals.  But when they blew up the wanna be GM's sure were not shy about jumping all over the front office about what terrible deals they were and the stupidy of the Twins front office.  From the rumors I heard about what other teams wanted from the Twins for some very mediocre talent I don't blame the Twins for staying the course and hoping the players they had would get healthy and pull them through. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

they believe they are the smartest people in the room

See this a lot.  What's the source of this recurring opinion about what's inside someone else's noggin?  Just an echo chamber here, after someone once said it must be so?

Meanwhile we have thread after thread full of people who are certain they are smarter, and tell us so, repeatedly.

So who actually deserves to be labeled this way?  Some folks might ask themselves, Reddit-style, AITA?

[BH67]

35 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

They traded a lot of men, but it was basically one prospect and additional flyers. And both those prospects are the type that SD probably did well receiving any value for. Two SP with allure but no actual success. 

I like what SD is doing. 

I understand differently in terms of the talent the Marlins received. I wasn't impressed that Tanner Scott is effectively a rental, either.

Minnesota sports fans of a certain age (hello) remember a gambit from 1989: Mike Lynn trading twelve Vikings players and draft picks to get Herschel Walker from the Cowboys. Worked great for the Cowboys. That admittedly colors my thinking -- more extreme than what the Padres did, yes, but of similar intent.

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, Rufus said:

How many years have the Padres thrown money, big money out the window and prospects away for players and it has blown up in their faces.

Like 4. And they were in the NLCS one of those years. And very well could be again this year. 

And they're like 5th in the majors in attendance. They're exciting. The Twins are decidedly...less so. 

[BH67]

7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Like 4. And they were in the NLCS one of those years. And very well could be again this year. 

And they're like 5th in the majors in attendance. They're exciting. The Twins are decidedly...less so. 

San Diego has an outstanding women's pro soccer team that draws excellent crowds for its sport. The Padres' other market competition, thanks to Los Angeles, is...San Diego State University athletics.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, BH67 said:

I understand differently in terms of the talent the Marlins received. I wasn't impressed that Tanner Scott is effectively a rental, either.

Minnesota sports fans of a certain age (hello) remember a gambit from 1989: Mike Lynn trading twelve Vikings players and draft picks to get Herschel Walker from the Cowboys. Worked great for the Cowboys. That admittedly colors my thinking -- more extreme than what the Padres did, yes, but of similar intent.

Risk averse thinking in sports is a good way to be mediocre indefinitely. 

What we know for sure is they traded 2 second/third tier prospects and a handful of low tier flyers, and the return has been worth about 4 wins in less than 2 months. And they actually control two of those 4 guys next season as well. 

Organizations should be more willing to trade away prospects. If the answer to the question "can this player be a true star" then they are expendable. And a system usually only has 2 or 3 players to which the answer is Yes. Walker Jenkins. Emmanuel Rodriguez maybe? Brooks Lee...eeeeh. 

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, BH67 said:

San Diego has an outstanding women's pro soccer team that draws excellent crowds for its sport. The Padres' other market competition, thanks to Los Angeles, is...San Diego State University athletics.

This has always seemed like a lame excuse to me. Oh? There are other things to do in your metropolitan area? How unique. 

Padres aren't exciting their fans purely because they're starved for sports.