Kyle Farmer, Sausage King of the Twins, Has Leveled Up His Offense. Can He Sustain It?

[Eric Blonigen]

Kyle Farmer is a lot of things: clubhouse glue; actor; sausage purveyor; realist; and suddenly, a good hitter. What’s been behind his offensive surge, and can he keep it up?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

In 2023, Kyle Farmer was decent. He hit for a very average .725 OPS across 369 plate appearances. He played all over the diamond, and was roughly average as a fielder. By all accounts, Farmer was incredibly well-liked in the clubhouse, and the combination of adequate performance and likability led to him remaining with the Twins this season. Having a role player who’s still essentially an average player is a luxury.

Entering last offseason, given the Twins’ payroll inflexibility, many assumed that Farmer would be a prime non-tender candidate. His projected arbitration-determined salary would consume a significant part of their budget, and could be better used elsewhere. However, the Twins either overvalued his skillset or his charisma, or overestimated his trade market. They tendered him a deal, eventually agreeing to terms outside arbitration, and at the time, even Farmer expressed surprise at his situation for the year.

For most of this campaign, Farmer has been a slightly worse version of the 2023 iteration. He wasn’t hitting, putting up a .557 OPS as he slumped through the first half of the season. His sprint speed was a little worse. By midseason, fans were calling for the Twins to trade him or designate him for assignment, as he hit like a backup catcher for half a season. Then, the Twins announced that Farmer had been dealing with an injury for much of the year. He hit the IL, spent a month there, and upon his return, showed fans something unexpected.

Since Aug. 9, Farmer has 64 plate appearances. Over that span, he has hit .305, while slugging a ridiculous .627. He’s also cut down his strikeout rate to an impressive 17.2% over this stretch. In these 27 games, his .955 OPS is highest of anyone on the team not named Byron Buxton, and over a much larger sample than Buxton, who's just getting back from his own IL stint. Where did this offensive breakout come from, and is it sustainable?

To begin, let’s look at a direct side-by-side comparison, and see what we can glean.

	Pre IL Stint	Post Return
OPS	.557	.955
Slugging	.265	.627
wOBA	.256	.394
Barrel Rate	3%	14%
Average Launch Angle	16.1	22.3
Average EV	85.6	91.4
Hard Hit	22.8%	44%
K%	20.5%	17.9%
BABIP	.248	.289

So, a stark contrast, right? What’s been driving it? For starters, to state the obvious, he’s seeing the ball much better, and producing at a higher level across the board. What's behind this?

Pitch Mix
Farmer has done well against changeups all season. Post-return, he’s been crushing them, with a 5.2 run value on that pitch type. The scouting reports seem to have not caught up to that fact, though, as he’s seen proportionally more of them since his IL stint. Pitchers are also pumping more fastballs at him. Historically, that’s been a bit of a problem for him, as Farmer does not have elite bat speed. His swing averages around three miles per hour slower than league average. More telling, his fast swing rate (characterized as any swing faster than 75 miles per hour) sits at just 1.3% on the season, compared to the league average of 22.5%. While his results against four-seam fastballs are the worst of any pitch, since his return, he’s been better at catching up to them, just a bit worse than average.

Hitting for Average
So, he’s seeing the ball better and crushing changeups. Can he sustain it? BABIP is usually a good predictor for regression. In this case, Farmer’s BABIP since returning from the IL is actually aligned with his results, at .289. This is a sign that good times should continue.

Hitting for Power
In the first half, Farmer wasn’t squaring up, with just three barrels across 101 batted-ball events for a 3% barrel rate. Since his return, he’s had six barrels across roughly 40 batted balls. According to Baseball Savant, of the five home runs he’s hit since his return, two were no-doubters, and he’s also had four balls that would be out in most ballparks. He's also been pulling the ball 44% of the time, compared to 34% prior to his IL stint. Pulling the ball is generally the right approach to hit for power, and he has committed to this approach. It's how he found success last year.

All that said, this is the one piece that’s likely to be unsustainable for Farmer. He’s almost certainly not going to slug .600 long-term. But, can he do it for another month? Maybe. Based on these things, it’s fair to conclude that yes, Farmer’s improvements at the plate are for real. And, it’s about the best possible time for him to turn it on. With two weeks left in the regular season, and a fairly thin margin for error to reach the postseason, the Twins need all the hitting they can muster.

If Farmer does keep it up, he could also be setting himself up for a decent deal this offseason — it just probably won’t be with the Twins. Minnesota holds a $6.25-million mutual option, which will almost certainly be declined, and Farmer will test his fortunes as a 34-year-old utility infielder on the open market. But, his time with the Twins will forever be remembered for the Home Run Sausage. That memory will be a bit moldy if the team misses the playoffs, but if they make it and have another strong October, it'll be a piquant and poignant legacy.

View full article

[NYCTK]

Kyle Farmer's option was always a good pickup as insurance against Julien and Lewis. The criticism levied towards him just because he had a minimal contract on a terribly constructed roster was never fair to him and was actually an indictment of ownership and the front office. 

Can he sustain it? Of course not. He didn't suddenly become an mvp caliber hitter at the tail of his career. But happy to see a good player have a good stretch and have people get off his back for something that wasn't ever his fault. 

[Riverbrian]

I was OK signing him in the off-season. That was before I knew how the off-season would play out. 

After the off-season was done, the belt was tightened. I looked at the lineup construction. I questioned his being brought back in. We had committed way too much money to the short side. 

As the season progressed and his performance was about as bad as it can get for an uncomfortable length of time. I would have released him in July just so anybody else could take a shot at doing something productive with that roster spot.   

He is still here and now he is hitting the ball as well as anybody on the team. Therefore right now... he needs to be in the lineup. I don't believe that he will stay hot... he will cool down. Take advantage of his seeing the ball well while you can.

We sure could use someone hitting the ball well right now. 

 

[Karbo]

Maybe getting hit in the head by a pitch slowed him down, and like Miranda, took him some time to get right again.

[RpR]

Baldelli is dumped on for babying his players but at the same time he lets players with minor but play affecting problems play on till it becomes  a serious problem.

He did that with Farmer, Kepler maybe Lewis and now Larnach.

Small physical problems can have major effects.

[LambchoP]

It won't last of course, but might as well ride the hot bat until he comes crashing down again. Right now he's a much better hitter than Julien and his glove is way better. Stick with who's hitting, we need any offense we can get.

[Doctor Gast]

I've been confused how bad Farmer had been in the beginning of the season. Farmer has been a masher against LHPs so him playing hurt makes sense about his hitting decline. I wasn't aware of his injury or how it affected him, thank you for shedding a light on it. Farmer like many Twins should have informed the Twins much sooner about his injury obstacle that plagued him & the Twins. Yeah he's been hitting even RHPs better.

[bean5302]

It's just regression. Farmer's xwOBA is still .307 vs. actual .299. It's a little hot streak which he was due to have, but it's obviously not sustainable. Farmer is 50/50 on a MLB contract next year IMHO.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Farmer is 50/50 on a MLB contract next year IMHO.

For some other team maybe.  Odds would be even lower than that, for the Twins. 

Though Helman didn't get much chance to show his ability in MLB this year, I'd put him ahead of Farmer as a choice for Opening Day 2025 - and I actually would peg him for St Paul to begin the season, so that means no role for Farmer.

[Blyleven2011]

Can he sustain it , at least for the remainder of the season  I think the answer is yes , he a very motivated player  ....

PLUS , while he was on IL list and then on a rehab assignment , he said he changed his batting style back to his last year with Cincinnati  , so with his health good and a different  batting style ,  it's not surprising to see him perform better ...

Just keep hitting  Kyle  , we need the bat to keep collecting hits , we need it desperately  ...

[Road trip]

He can certainly sustain it for the duration of the regular season.  That's a blip of time where any player can get or stay hot.

For next year?  No sustaining this isn't likely.  I'd be a little surprised if Farmer gets a MLB contract next year.  He'll get a spring training invite somewhere I assume, if he want it.  However he's at nearly $17 million for career earnings, so money may not be his primary motivator.  He's at the age where he might want to start thinking about what is next. 

Seems like he might make a good coach, so if some team made him that offer I wonder if he would consider that route at this time.  Also, if he is as funny as his reputation I could see him in a broadcast booth.  Bob Ueker has to retire one of these days... someone new needs to carry the torch.

[DocBauer]

I was happy to see him back for one more season for a variety of reasons, even at his $. Had i known how bad the payroll crunch was actually going to be, I might have changed my mind. Still, I liked him back.

And then he was just awful at the plate. The 2023 version of Farmer was worth having stick around. The version we got was worth a DFA months ago.

The injury factor and sudden turnaround doesn't end up justifying his contract or presence, but we're way beyond that at this point.

No, he can't maintain this hot streak through the rest of 2024, which includes probable playoff appearances. He's way above career numbers, so it's a silly question. BUT, that doesn't mean he can't be the "normal", solid hitter he was in 2023 and for a good part of his career. That still has value to finish the season even without another month of this hot streak he's currently on.

[IndianaTwin]

Can he sustain his hitting for a long while? No, but neither was he likely to sustain the struggles of the first half. We shouldn’t be surprised that a guy with an 88 career OPS+ has an OPS+ this year of, let’s see, 90. 

[Rosterman]

Salary will send him away. Twins have names like Martin, Helman and even Chris Williams to consider for reserve roles.

Such a tough start to the season. But now a BIG roadblack on the left side of the infield.