The Twins’ Path to the Playoffs: A Wild Card Race Primer

[Matthew Taylor]

With just 15 games left, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in a tight Wild Card race. While they’ve secured key tiebreakers over the Tigers and Mariners, their path to the postseason still hinges on how they perform down the stretch. Let’s dive into the scenarios that could define their playoff fate.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

With just over two weeks left in the regular season, the Twins are right in the thick of the Wild Card race. With their magic number sitting at 12, the Twins are in a strong position, but plenty of scenarios are still in play as they head into this crucial stretch of the season. Let’s take a look at the tiebreakers and what the Twins need to do to secure the final Wild Card spot.

First, the good news: the Twins have already clinched key tiebreakers over the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, thanks to their season-long head-to-head advantage against both teams. This means that neither Detroit nor Seattle can leapfrog the Twins in the standings by way of a tie.

However, the Boston Red Sox still present a threat. The Twins currently hold a 2-1 lead in the season series against Boston, with three games remaining at Fenway Park next week. Depending on how those games go, there are three potential outcomes for the tiebreaker with Boston. If the Twins get swept, the Red Sox will clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Twins win two or sweep the series, they’ll claim it. If the Twins go 1-2, the teams would finish tied, and the tiebreaker would move to intradivisional records, where the Twins hold a slim advantage (28-20 in the division, compared to Boston’s 20-21 with 11 divisional games left). While that gives the Twins an edge, a strong performance against Cleveland this weekend would help solidify that path.

I mapped out every possible scenario for the Minnesota Twins and how each of the Tigers, Mariners, and Red Sox would need to perform in order to overtake the Twins for the final playoff spot.

Looking at all of the scenarios, here are the key takeaways as we head into the most exciting part of the baseball season:

- The magic record down the stretch is likely 8-7, which would almost guarantee a Wild Card berth, requiring their competing teams to go at least 11-3 to overtake them. A 7-8 finish keeps them in good shape, but things get a little tighter if they end up 6-9 or worse. Either way, staying near .500 over these final 16 games leaves the Twins in control of their own destiny, for all intents and purposes.

- This weekend’s series against Cincinnati could be pivotal. If the Twins stumble and get swept, they’d find themselves needing to go 8-5 over the remaining 13 games against tougher competition—Cleveland and Boston—to reach that magic number of 8-7 and feel secure in their playoff chances. Things could tighten up quickly if they falter at Target Field. Friday night's game didn't go well, but the Twins can't let this weekend slip away from them like they did last weekend in Kansas City.

- The Twins end the season with 3 games against Baltimore. The Twins don't want to find themselves in a position where they are chasing wins in the final series of the season against a talented Baltimore team that has crushed them all season. Cashing against Cincinnati, Cleveland and Miami is their best chance to gain a playoff spot.

While the second Wild Card spot is technically still in play, with the Kansas City Royals just 2.5 games ahead, the focus should be on holding off the teams behind them. Besides, the second Wild Card doesn’t offer much comfort this season, with a trip to Baltimore or New York being the "prize" in that scenario. Better to control what’s in front of them and secure the spot they’re in.

With 15 games remaining, the Twins are in a good position to make the postseason, but they still have work to do. If you want to follow along with the playoff chase, head over to my Twitter (@MatthewTaylorMN), where I’m updating the Twins’ playoff outlook chart daily.

How are you feeling about the Twins’ chances in the final stretch? Leave a comment below and let’s talk about it.

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[FlyingFinn]

"If the Twins go 1-2, the teams would finish tied, and the tiebreaker would move to intradivisional records, where the Twins hold a slim advantage (28-20 in the division, compared to Boston’s 20-21 with 11 divisional games left). "

Slim?? That is a massive edge. If the Twins go 2-2 against Cleveland, Boston needs to go 10-1 to tie. If the Twins go 0-4 against Cleveland and 1-2 against Boston, there probably won't be a tie-breaker.

[Brandon]

The Cleveland series is 4 games.  We sweep that we are back in the division title business.  I won't resign myself to wild card only till after that series.  with our two best players back and maybe a healthy Kepler we could be very competitive here on out.  Our offense and defense will improve with these two.  It will take pressure off of Walner and Lewis too.  The back of our pen has been pitching well too.  Blewitt, Henriquez, and now Varland with Tonkin who has been ok.  My confidence level is real high if Correa and Buxton are truly injury free.  

I do like this article comparing records needed to ensure our way into the playoffs, but it would also be cool to see our path to the division title too even if we don't like the outlook.  

[Parfigliano]

Path to playoffs.  Win.

[Reptevia]

The actual chances of making playoffs is probably 85%. In reality, it feels more like 50%. 

[jkcarew]

This club doesn’t belong in the playoffs…and, if they make it regardless, they’re out no matter who they play. This isn’t the same team they were through July. Not even close. It happens. Currently, this is a completely broken club, and nothing is going to change drastically enough in the next two weeks to make a big enough difference.

[RpR]

No Postseason this year without a miracle.

[NYCTK]

I've been a huge critic of the expanded playoffs and the Twins help explain why. Ain't nobody in the league wants to see the Twins limp into the playoffs. No one is intrigued by the race to be the 6th best team in a league.

At least in the NL the WC is close top to bottom, you got 4 teams that could conceivably finish with the top wild card spot providing real drama instead of this phony manufactured BS. 

[tampatwins]

I love this team as much as yall do, but I have to say (and have been saying): this team doesnt seem worthy of a playoff spot. Tomorrow's game becomes a must win, and then they have a gauntlet between Cleveland and Boston. Effectively, the season will be decided this coming week, whether we want to admit it or not

[High heat]

At this point who cares if they limp into the payoffs as the 3rd wild card and get boat racked in two wild card games!  
 

They have to figure some thing out here and personally I think they have used up all there bullets.  
 

You didn’t go get arms at the deadline and injuries and cold bats sunk the season.  

[mattk]

Ticketmaster

[killebrewlover]

What are we talking about here?!  It's an interesting statistics problem.  But do you seriously think the Twins have any real chances of making the playoffs the way they are playing right now???!!!  You're welcome to live in your dream world if it makes you happy.  I choose to move on and stop wasting my time with false hopes.

[S Bart]

In the immortal words of Mr. Monty Python...and now for something completely different.

Try Duran and Jax out as starting pitchers...use the rookies as relief pitchers.

Do you realize that Matthews is being used as a starter on Tuesday, and he has a 7.11 ERA? 

One cannot beat him up as he is a young rookie brought up quickly who is putting forth an effort. However, when was the last time the Twins used a starter with that high of an ERA? 

[NYCTK]

37 minutes ago, S Bart said:

In the immortal words of Mr. Monty Python...and now for something completely different.

Try Duran and Jax out as starting pitchers...use the rookies as relief pitchers.

Do you realize that Matthews is being used as a starter on Tuesday, and he has a 7.11 ERA? 

One cannot beat him up as he is a young rookie brought up quickly who is putting forth an effort. However, when was the last time the Twins used a starter with that high of an ERA? 

Looks like that'd be Dobnak in '21.

[Doctor Wu]

16 hours ago, Brandon said:

The Cleveland series is 4 games.  We sweep that we are back in the division title business.  I won't resign myself to wild card only till after that series.  with our two best players back and maybe a healthy Kepler we could be very competitive here on out.  Our offense and defense will improve with these two.  It will take pressure off of Walner and Lewis too.  The back of our pen has been pitching well too.  Blewitt, Henriquez, and now Varland with Tonkin who has been ok.  My confidence level is real high if Correa and Buxton are truly injury free.  

I do like this article comparing records needed to ensure our way into the playoffs, but it would also be cool to see our path to the division title too even if we don't like the outlook.  

Not sure if we can even trust Varland in the bullpen at this point. 

[Doctor Wu]

10 hours ago, jkcarew said:

This club doesn’t belong in the playoffs…and, if they make it regardless, they’re out no matter who they play. This isn’t the same team they were through July. Not even close. It happens. Currently, this is a completely broken club, and nothing is going to change drastically enough in the next two weeks to make a big enough difference.

Sadly, you may be right. I mean, we are all hoping for that extra something that DOES change things and get us winning again. I'm hopeful that it will happen, but realistic enough to doubt that it will. 

[Whitey333]

I will echo some of the other comments.  Twins don't deserve a playoff spot.  They have lost 18 of their past 25 games and playing very poorly as well.  Baldelli lost this team a month ago or longer.  They have no life.  They may still very well back into the playoffs but they will more than likely lose out right away.  They can't hit, they can't score. And the bullpen is in shambles.  But yes oh yes we are blessed with the return of both Buxton and Correa.  Correa informing us that he will be used sparingly.  Great

[LambchoP]

This team doesn't deserve a playoff berth. Not the way we're playing now. If we sneak in as a wildcard, unless we can turn things around big-time, I'm predicting an embarrassing 2 game sweep blowout...

[twinfan]

Sadly, the Twins have only 2 starters they can count on right now, another who is iffy and nobody else. Their offense is asleep but hopefully can return with those injured now back. The bullpen is a mess when Jax isn't available. And the schedule- now that the Reds will be gone- becomes very difficult. Don't forget the Orioles at the end who should still be fighting for first. The only (maybe) hope is they won't face too many lefties whom they can't seem to beat. However, their failure to add a starter at the deadline could cost them. At least right now they are 2 1/2 games ahead which could be a big advantage. But the failing starters may not pull them through. And even if they make the playoffs, do they have enough to get past Houston or Baltimore or (gulp) the Yankees in the first round?

[bean5302]

Wildcard Games Back / Last 10 Games / vs. Twins in standings
2.5 / Tigers / 6-4 / +3 games
2.5 / Mariners / 7-3 / +4 games
3.5 / Red Sox / 5-5 / +2 games

At this rate, 10 games from now:
83-76 WC3 Mariners
82-77 1GB Tigers
81-77 1.5GB Twins
80-79 3.0GB Red Sox

[Parfigliano]

13 hours ago, killebrewlover said:

What are we talking about here?!  It's an interesting statistics problem.  But do you seriously think the Twins have any real chances of making the playoffs the way they are playing right now???!!!  You're welcome to live in your dream world if it makes you happy.  I choose to move on and stop wasting my time with false hopes.

Defeatist attitude.  They are saving wins to go on a 13 game win streak with 2 games left in the season.

[RpR]

Postseason for the Twins ,hmmm, supposed miracle workers Buxton, Correa and Lewis are back, yet the team has gotten worse not better, oh my!

[killebrewlover]

On 9/15/2024 at 12:07 PM, Parfigliano said:

Defeatist attitude.  They are saving wins to go on a 13 game win streak with 2 games left in the season.

Perhaps.  But it's a defeatist attitude for a defeated team.  'Nough said...