Evaluating Two Pivotal Trades Between the Twins and Reds

[Cody Christie]

The Twins and Reds square off at Target Field this weekend, and the two front offices have become familiar with each other in recent seasons. So, how have two pivotal trades played out for both sides?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins and Reds have engaged in some notable trades in recent years, each shaping the future of their respective franchises. First, the Twins acquired Sonny Gray in exchange for prospect Chase Petty ahead of the 2022 season. The second major trade saw the Twins bring in Tyler Mahle and send Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to Cincinnati at the 2022 trade deadline. Both deals were geared toward bolstering the Twins’ rotation, but each has had a different impact.

The Sonny Gray-Chase Petty Swap
In March 2022, the Twins made a decisive move to upgrade their pitching staff by trading for veteran right-hander Gray. Gray had built a strong track record, excelling as a starter for the Oakland Athletics and Cincinnati Reds, and his mix of competitiveness and pitchability made him a natural fit in Minnesota. In exchange, the Reds received Petty, a 2021 first-round pick known for his triple-digit fastball and high upside.

Twins' Perspective:
Gray provided the Twins with two All-Star-caliber seasons while pitching at the top of the team’s rotation. In his first season with the team, Gray posted a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP over 119 2/3 innings, battling through minor injuries. His 2023 season saw him perform at an even higher level, emerging as one of the AL's top pitchers and being a central figure in Minnesota’s playoff push. In 184 innings, he posted a 2.79 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP while leading MLB in FIP (2.83) and HR/9 (0.4). Gray's ability to mix his repertoire and pitch deep into games made him invaluable, though his durability has always been a question.

Following the season, the Twins made Gray a qualifying offer, which he rejected to become a free agent. He signed with the Cardinals, and Minnesota received the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft as compensation for his departure. The Twins used the pick to select shortstop Kyle DeBarge from the University of Louisiana-Lafayette. Minnesota’s front office paid a premium for Gray, but they got a draft pick similar to Petty's when Gray left. 

Reds' Perspective:
Petty, the centerpiece of this deal for Cincinnati continues to develop in the Reds’ system, and he was recently promoted to Triple-A while only 21 years old. His velocity remains his most notable attribute, and his off-speed stuff has also seen improvement. In 127 innings, he posted a 4.39 ERA with a 123-to-56 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Petty projects as a potential frontline starter, but it will take more time before we see whether the trade works out in Cincinnati’s favor. The Reds bet on Petty’s raw talent, trading an established arm in Gray for a high-risk, high-reward prospect.

The Tyler Mahle Deal
The Twins made another splash at the 2022 trade deadline, acquiring Tyler Mahle from Cincinnati. The price for Mahle was steep, as Minnesota shipped Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Reds in exchange for the righty. Mahle had a strong track record and was expected to solidify the Twins’ rotation.

Twins' Perspective:
The Mahle trade didn’t work out as the Twins had hoped. Though he showed flashes of his potential in his first handful of starts with the Twins, Mahle struggled with injuries, including a season-ending shoulder injury in 2023. He was limited to nine starts and 42 innings in Minnesota. Ultimately, his inability to stay healthy has made the trade a sore spot for Minnesota’s front office, and it could be deemed the worst trade in the Twin's history. Mahle left as a free agent last winter, and the Twins faced the reality of having dealt three valuable prospects for a pitcher who was never able to deliver consistently.

The Twins made a bold move, betting on Mahle’s ability to be a difference-maker down the stretch in 2022 and beyond. Unfortunately, injuries derailed those plans, leaving the organization and fans wondering what could have been had Mahle stayed healthy.

Reds' Perspective:
For the Reds, this trade looks like a clear win. Spencer Steer quickly became a core player for Cincinnati, contributing both offensively and defensively with versatility around the infield. Over the last three seasons, he has combined for a 107 OPS+ and finished sixth in the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year voting. He's demonstrated an advanced approach at the plate and solid power.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, another critical piece of the deal, posted a 112 OPS+ in 63 games last season. However, he has been limited to a 40 OPS+ in 2024. He suffered a broken bone and ligament damage when he was hit by a pitch at the end of April, and he’s currently on the 60-day IL. His power potential is undeniable, and he figures to be a significant part of Cincinnati’s lineup if he stays healthy. The Reds traded Steve Hajjar to the Guardians organization, where he shifted to a bullpen role.

The Twins-Reds trades have produced mixed results for Minnesota. The Gray for Petty swap might work out well for both teams. The Reds will ultimately come out ahead in the Mahle trade, especially with the emergence of Steer and Encarnacion-Strand.

What stands out about these two trades? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Karbo]

The Mahle trade would have been OK if he stayed healthy. I would question the medical staff how they didn't see the problems. It still would have been a bit of an over pay, but as I remember the Twins were going to lose some guys in the rule 5 draft anyway. Petty could well turn out an ace, but 2 years of Gray and recouping the draft capital with the compensation draft still looks like a trade I'm OK with.

[Whitey333]

There's no way to be ok with the Mahle trade.  Even initially they gave upbtoo much even if Mahle would have worked out.  One of the worst trades in Twins history.  Mahle had a history of injuries before the Twins got him.  Not a good deal at all.

[DocBauer]

If Petty turns out to be really good, it won't change the fact that the trade worked out well for the Twins. They got a front line SP for 2 years for a rookie level HS arm with potential. And while the comp pick...DeBarge...may or may not turn in to something of quality in the future, you make trades of this nature for the NOW, and not for "what might happen".

If you only grade trades for the future, you might as well never make them, and stop trying to improve your club via that route.

I have mixed feelings about the Mahle trade. I was actually STOKED when they acquired him. IIRC, there was no major medical issues with him other than some "tired arm syndrom" which happens, and is usually nothing more than a strain, or something similar. Certainly, not a precursor to a TJ elbow situation. And after the shortened 2020 covid season, he threw a career 180 IP in 2021 for Cincinnati. A little "tired arm" didn't alarm me, or apparently anyone else considering. If you recall, Lopez had a few mild injuries while still with Miami before the Twins traded for him.

I thought they grabbed a guy who just about ready to take the NEXT STEP while working with the Twins staff, and out of the band box that is the Reds stadium. I think that's what the Twins thought as well.

I'd love to have Steer back. I'm not sold on CES. Time will tell. Hajjar wad tough to lose, but he hasn't done much yet, due to injury for sure.

But at the time, the trade made real sense. Medical technology is great today, but I don't think either side of this deal saw a future TJ injury.

I think fate, bad luck, or the baseball gods just saw fit to make this turn out poorly for the Twins. In an alternate universe, Mahle gets right, his elbow doesn't give out, the Twins might still have traded for Lopez, and those 2 guys are probably your #1 and #2 starters.

But again, sometimes you make trades to improve your team. And once in a while, you get burned.

[Rosterman]

The choice was Steer or keeping the year younger Julien. I like how versatile Steer has become for the Reds. Shows power and base stealing skills.

CES would be clogging up the infield even more right now, unless you could switch him to first base or make the eprmanent DH. I doubt the Twins would've moved him to the majors before this season, and could've argued that, too. Was keeping Severino more important?

You don't have room for all prospects and must judge them according to need to add to 40-man roster, or pecking order of who is better than whom and what you think you need for RH vs LH bats.

Mahle ended up being a better trade than the Polanco one (so far) to Seattle.

[Seth Stohs]

What about Casey Legumina for Kyle Farmer?? 

[mikelink45]

The way these trades went well is if we had extended Gray. Giving up Steer was a big loss.  

[nclahammer]

Tyler Mahle, Sam Dyson, Justin Topa, Athony DeSclafani.   All pitchers aquired in trades who have pitched little, or not even at all, for the Minnesota Twins and provided little or no value.     I mean one I get, an oops, but four?    The Minnesota Twins need to do a more thorough job of checking off all the boxes before making deals like these.

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

What about Casey Legumina for Kyle Farmer?? 

Casey has been called back up. He has not had great success at the major league level but there are plenty of people here who would contend that is also true for Farmer

[old nurse]

The Reds traded Haijar for Benson. Benson has been a starting OF for them. 

[LambchoP]

Steer would be a nice boost for our lineup, but I have to believe he would've been traded anyways, our infield is pretty full with lots of depth in AAA. Of course Steers 20/20 season would have been a nice weapon to have playing second base for us .....time will tell on CES

[dxpavelka]

Both deals were necessitated by trading Berrios.

[Otaknam]

The Gray trade was solid, given that he gave them two very good seasons. Petty may be ready for the ML by next year, three years after the trade. So this trade was a good one for both teams. The Twins gave up a lot for one year of Mahle, who did have injury concerns. Add to that the trade for the often injured Paddock and some front offices would have been fired. Definitely a black mark on this FO.

[Otaknam]

4 hours ago, nclahammer said:

Tyler Mahle, Sam Dyson, Justin Topa, Athony DeSclafani.   All pitchers aquired in trades who have pitched little, or not even at all, for the Minnesota Twins and provided little or no value.     I mean one I get, an oops, but four?    The Minnesota Twins need to do a more thorough job of checking off all the boxes before making deals like these.

The FO seems unconcerned about the injury histories of pitchers, and it has cost the team plenty. 

[Five minute major]

There is no defense of the Mahle trade.  None.  Zero.  The worst trade in Twins history.   To me it is so bad that it should've cost some jobs.   There were a lot of people who immediately recognized how bad this trade was going to be.  

[Brandon]

We have so many second baseman coming up that I don’t bemoan the loss of Steer.  We are probably still looking to offload one or two more as well.  I would hate on this trade if 2B was a black hole for us, but it’s not.  Also Steer is only league average 100 OPS+ 
 

also Farmer has a .787 OPS since his season opening slump ended April 26th or so.  After that 3 for 47 start he is 36 for 137 with 16 XBH, 10 BB and 4 HBPs and 2 sac flys.  
 

Also how do you feel about the Reds signing Pagan to 2 year 16 million.  He hasn’t been bad but it appears he was hurt for a bit without me doing any research.  8 million still a little steep though but so far not too bad of a signing.

[Rigby]

17 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

What about Casey Legumina for Kyle Farmer?? 

Or Cesar Tovar for Gerry Arrigo. Jerry Zimmerman for Dan Dobbek. Chico Cardenas for Jim Merritt. Wayne Granger for Tom Hall. Greg Garrett for Pete Hamm. John Courtright for Dave McCarty. Zach Ward for Kyle Lohse. Brandon Roberts for Juan Castro.

Also, Al Worthington was purchased from Cincinnati.

[Shaitan]

On 9/13/2024 at 3:35 PM, Karbo said:

The Mahle trade would have been OK if he stayed healthy. I would question the medical staff how they didn't see the problems. It still would have been a bit of an over pay, but as I remember the Twins were going to lose some guys in the rule 5 draft anyway. 

I mostly agree, but Texas curiously gave Mahle a 2 year deal too. The Twins aren't the only one ignoring the red flags.