Counting on Young Pitchers to Replace Hurt Ones, Twins Say to David Festa: Good Luck, Kid

[Nate Palmer]

Though at least partially forced by the penuriousness of ownership, front office inactivity has put unnecessary pressure on David Festa.

Image courtesy of Jason Bridge, Brad Penner

After an inactive trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins had one injury circumstance that could not happen without resulting in a near-doomsday scenario. All three top starting pitchers--Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan--needed to remain healthy for the rest of the season. As we learned late last week, the bubble they created for themselves has popped. Ryan will likely miss the rest of the regular season with a Grade 2 teres major strain. In the best-case scenario, he might be able to join the Twins sometime mid-playoff run.

One thing we have learned, watching baseball, is that injuries happen, and you might as well assume that and plan for them. It appears the Twins' plan all along was to fill from within when those situations arose, and that approach has left one rookie standing in a very hot spotlight for the stretch run.

David Festa made his debut on Jun. 27 in Arizona. The righthander has had plenty of excitement behind him this season, as he appears to have developed all the tools and skills to succeed at the MLB level. His first two starts, while they displayed flashes of greatness, also reflected the vagaries of a rookie pitcher. Festa was sent back to St. Paul after two starts with an ERA of 10.80. 

Since being inserted back in the rotation for Chris Paddack on Jul. 24, Festa has shown more of the upside that many watching him in the minors were excited about. In those four starts since returning to the majors, Festa now holds a 2.04 ERA, while limiting batters to a .188 batting average and .678 OPS. As we saw in his latest start, the home run ball may hurt him the most; he's allowed three over that stretch.

What is scary down the stretch isn’t Festa’s ability. In many ways, he seems very capable of becoming the number-three (or higher) starter in the Twins rotation. What is scary is that the Twins need him to be that now, with limited regression or growing pains without Ryan in the rotation. Simeon Woods-Richardson and Louie Varland will also have pressure put on them, but they seem to remain in their perceived roles. Frankly, of that group, Festa seems to have the stuff to best replace a high-end starter like Ryan. 

Let’s be clear: I am rooting for Festa. If he could lock in his spot in a way that produces the sort of excitement that a healthy Francisco Liriano produced in 2006, there may be nothing better. From May 19 until getting shut down at the end of July that summer, Liriano made 14 starts, posted a 1.65 ERA, and held batters to an incredible .482 OPS--all while striking out 105 batters, or 30.1% of the batters he faced.

The amazing thing is, Festa is knocking on the door to match some of those numbers. Even with the bad starts, Festa has a 27.5% strikeout rate. He's a talent on par with Liriano, though a bit less of a phenom.

Maybe these are the scars of a Twins fan coming through, but there is also a dark side to this reliance on a rookie. It can beget the volatility he's shown and the risk of regression--or, as was the case with Liriano, a pressure that resulted in injury and complete unavailability for the playoffs.

The Twins certainly have more pitching talent in their organization than I can ever remember. As we have screamed since the offseason, there is no backup plan to these young pitchers, leaving a lot of pressure on young and rookie pitchers. Right now, most of that pressure seems to be landing on Festa. Biomechanically, more pressure doesn't mean a greater injury risk. Statistically, more pressure doesn't mean a greater risk of failure. Because we are all humans, though, and because Festa is, neither biomechanics nor statistics are necessarily going to carry the day.

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[Richie the Rally Goat]

Put down the Tyrana-thesaurus-rex Nate!

[JD-TWINS]

He’s getting paid - I’m sure he sees himself as a Professional MLB player - the pressure this August, after half dozen starts, isn’t any more than it would be next June. Guys are up & down with performance……part of the pro sports deal……(see P. Lopez) …….I like Festa’s demeanor and competitive fire. He might struggle - gotta roll with it at this point.

Festa is older than SWR …… Simeon got thrown in the fire early and, generally, he’s been exceptional at age 23! Festa seems to be leveling off and just relying on his stuff…...I think he’ll be OK.

 

[DocBauer]

Right now, he's the #4 starter. Not sure a number even matters. It's about going out, staying within himself, trusting his stuff, and just trusting in that stuff, his catcher, and his defense. Worst mistake he could make would be trying too hard to be something he's not.

He's going to have some downers. And he...same with Matthews...has been pressed in to full time duty earlier than hoped for. But that's baseball. Not just for the Twins, but across the league. He doesn't HAVE to shine, just be solid, and continue to grow and learn.

[jimbo92107]

Another fan noticed, and I agreed: Festa's elbows-and-knees look is reminiscent of young Bert Blyleven. That's gotta be a good sign.

[Rosterman]

Festa and Matthews have to be able to solidly get thru a line-up twice, and into it a third time. If they pitch like they have been, I would almost line-them-up with an opener so they can start with the bottom of the order.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO the added stress quite often leads to physical stress when trying to meet the standard that's set before them as a rookie they often go beyond what they can physically can handle & burn out. IMO that was part of Liriano's problem. I hope that doesn't happen to Festa or Matthews.

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Festa and Matthews have to be able to solidly get thru a line-up twice, and into it a third time. If they pitch like they have been, I would almost line-them-up with an opener so they can start with the bottom of the order.

I think you can also throw Varland in that same category that an opener would be beneficial.

[Karbo]

Festa will be fine. There is bound to be some "bumps in the road" but that's to be expected for any youngster getting his 1st taste in the majors. So long as he learns from mistakes, I think he will be a very good pitcher over the next several years.

[Riverbrian]

This is how it needs to work. 

Rather see a Festa on the mound over an innings eating vet. 

 

 

[laloesch]

Let the kids roll.  I actually like this strategy rather than bringing in washed up veterans or retreads at the deadline.  Matthrews and Festa getting their first taste of the majors is a positive heading into next year. 

[Otaknam]

Comparing Festa to Liriano at the beginning stage of their careers is silly. Festa might turn out to be a solid starter, but Liriano was a phenom from the beginning. Only injuries prevented him from continued greatness. Festa is nowhere close to that yet, but let’s hope he gets there.

[LambchoP]

It's been great seeing our young pitching prospects debut and finding success, but relying on rookies for 3/5ths of our rotation in a playoff chase is definitely a huge risk and not an ideal situation. Twins blew it at the deadline and now we're going to have to roll with what we got. Hopefully Paddack can come back and help out in the bullpen at least. I'd also like to see Varland finally converted to a relief pitcher, but with our starting depth being tested so much, I don't see that happening until maybe next year. 

[KBJ1]

While our young rookie pitchers have all shown they have talent, relying on them for 60% of the starting rotation is irresponsible.  I'd still rather have them than washed up retread free agent starters. What should have happened is the signing of an established veteran or someone like Imanaga. Best of luck to our young hurlers.  Maybe they carry us to the promised land like the miracle Mets!

 

[Fatbat]

These kids have talent, skills and the drive to all be #2,3 or 4 SP for 5-8 years.  The only thing that is gonna be scary going forward is the success they have a chance to achieve. Scary good success. They have 2 great catchers to throw to even next year.  The rest of ‘24 is going to be remembered for the young guns that stepped up into the Twins rotation. There is some exciting baseball on the way!!

2025 will start with talk of sophomore jinx and who is coming behind them. A whole 2nd wave will be coming to the saints.

Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, SWR, Festa, Matthews, Varland will all want to be in the top 5 SP in ‘25 and we will have 3-4 more knocking on the uber door. WOW 🤩 

[Linus]

1 minute ago, Fatbat said:

These kids have talent, skills and the drive to all be #2,3 or 4 SP for 5-8 years.  The only thing that is gonna be scary going forward is the success they have a chance to achieve. Scary good success. They have 2 great catchers to throw to even next year.  The rest of ‘24 is going to be remembered for the young guns that stepped up into the Twins rotation. There is some exciting baseball on the way!!

2025 will start with talk of sophomore jinx and who is coming behind them. A whole 2nd wave will be coming to the saints.

Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, SWR, Festa, Matthews, Varland will all want to be in the top 5 SP in ‘25 and we will have 3-4 more knocking on the uber door. WOW 🤩 

I agree with you. Except I don’t care about next year or the year after that (right now). I want to make the playoffs. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I agree with you. Except I don’t care about next year or the year after that (right now). I want to make the playoffs. 

In 2023, Texas and AZ had a great mix of vets and youth. Without their reliance on kids, neither team would have been in the WS.  AZ is about where we are this year, fighting for a spot somewhere in the post season, Texas probably won’t be there and they have been selling farm assets. 
It sounds like the Astros out bid us  at the deadline for Kikuchi on a classic overpay by Houston.  Our ‘24 season and the future is better if we don’t overpay.  Trust the youngsters!

[Linus]

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

In 2023, Texas and AZ had a great mix of vets and youth. Without their reliance on kids, neither team would have been in the WS.  AZ is about where we are this year, fighting for a spot somewhere in the post season, Texas probably won’t be there and they have been selling farm assets. 
It sounds like the Astros out bid us  at the deadline for Kikuchi on a classic overpay by Houston.  Our ‘24 season and the future is better if we don’t overpay.  Trust the youngsters!

Or we could have added a starter in the off season and our chances of making the playoffs would be better. 

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Or we could have added a starter in the off season and our chances of making the playoffs would be better. 

I was all for spending $20-30M on a vet SP. its not my $$$