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After an inactive trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins had one injury circumstance that could not happen without resulting in a near-doomsday scenario. All three top starting pitchers--Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan--needed to remain healthy for the rest of the season. As we learned late last week, the bubble they created for themselves has popped. Ryan will likely miss the rest of the regular season with a Grade 2 teres major strain. In the best-case scenario, he might be able to join the Twins sometime mid-playoff run.
One thing we have learned, watching baseball, is that injuries happen, and you might as well assume that and plan for them. It appears the Twins' plan all along was to fill from within when those situations arose, and that approach has left one rookie standing in a very hot spotlight for the stretch run.
David Festa made his debut on Jun. 27 in Arizona. The righthander has had plenty of excitement behind him this season, as he appears to have developed all the tools and skills to succeed at the MLB level. His first two starts, while they displayed flashes of greatness, also reflected the vagaries of a rookie pitcher. Festa was sent back to St. Paul after two starts with an ERA of 10.80.
Since being inserted back in the rotation for Chris Paddack on Jul. 24, Festa has shown more of the upside that many watching him in the minors were excited about. In those four starts since returning to the majors, Festa now holds a 2.04 ERA, while limiting batters to a .188 batting average and .678 OPS. As we saw in his latest start, the home run ball may hurt him the most; he's allowed three over that stretch.
What is scary down the stretch isn’t Festa’s ability. In many ways, he seems very capable of becoming the number-three (or higher) starter in the Twins rotation. What is scary is that the Twins need him to be that now, with limited regression or growing pains without Ryan in the rotation. Simeon Woods-Richardson and Louie Varland will also have pressure put on them, but they seem to remain in their perceived roles. Frankly, of that group, Festa seems to have the stuff to best replace a high-end starter like Ryan.
Let’s be clear: I am rooting for Festa. If he could lock in his spot in a way that produces the sort of excitement that a healthy Francisco Liriano produced in 2006, there may be nothing better. From May 19 until getting shut down at the end of July that summer, Liriano made 14 starts, posted a 1.65 ERA, and held batters to an incredible .482 OPS--all while striking out 105 batters, or 30.1% of the batters he faced.
The amazing thing is, Festa is knocking on the door to match some of those numbers. Even with the bad starts, Festa has a 27.5% strikeout rate. He's a talent on par with Liriano, though a bit less of a phenom.
Maybe these are the scars of a Twins fan coming through, but there is also a dark side to this reliance on a rookie. It can beget the volatility he's shown and the risk of regression--or, as was the case with Liriano, a pressure that resulted in injury and complete unavailability for the playoffs.
The Twins certainly have more pitching talent in their organization than I can ever remember. As we have screamed since the offseason, there is no backup plan to these young pitchers, leaving a lot of pressure on young and rookie pitchers. Right now, most of that pressure seems to be landing on Festa. Biomechanically, more pressure doesn't mean a greater injury risk. Statistically, more pressure doesn't mean a greater risk of failure. Because we are all humans, though, and because Festa is, neither biomechanics nor statistics are necessarily going to carry the day.
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