Dear Pohlads: Don't Do This

[bean5302]

Why do they have to build a bunch of strawmen? The Twins do not lose money every single year. NOBODY HAS SAID THEY DO.

The Twins have lost money since 2019 on a cumulative basis because of colossal losses in 2020, and a big loss in 2022 as the Twins expanded their payroll but revenues didn't follow. In 2023, had the Twins not made or advanced in the playoffs, it's likely they would have lost money. The Pohlads cut expenses, seemingly to about where they'd need to be to turn minimal profit if the the Twins missed the playoffs this year. They absolutely should expand their payroll in my opinion as they're in the playoff chase and they should expect revenue from that source.

If you add up the 49MM loss in 2020, the 10MM profit in 2021, the 27MM loss in 2022 and the 19MM profit in 2023 you get ($47MM) net in losses since 2019.

There is data behind the values. Most of it comes from Forbes, and they're a far more reputable source than the backside of angry fan commenters.


 

[bean5302]

41 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I most want the Twins to find another top of the rotation arm in the playoffs, but I don't feel that way about Snell. I don't care about his high ERA and I love the strikeouts, but his lack of control and unstable BB% is likely to be playoff poison against good hitting teams, which the Twins will likely find themselves matched up against.

I'm not sure (insert perfect pitcher) is available?

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no idea how the Cards gave up so little in this trade? I must be missing something.....

Cardinals gave up a lot. Edman is a 4-5 WAR infielder with 1.5yrs of control $2.3MM this year and $9.5MM next year. Like if the Twins had traded Brian Dozier in 2017 at the deadline instead of 2018.

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not sure (insert perfect pitcher) is available?

Yeah, there might not be.

I don't want to make a trade just to make a trade though. I'd want a trade to win the World Series, not just to sneak into the playoffs as an underdog again.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

7 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

If you aren’t going to push some chips once in a while, are you even playing the game?

Better way to word it, if you aren’t going to go for it this year, when will you ever go for it

The way I see it, the Twins are currently in Year 3 of “going for it” and being all in for that championship that eluded them in 2019.

This coincides with a particular free agent who arrived on the scene in 2022.

there, i will leave it to you to connect the two dots. 🙂

Also, thank you for being a TwinsDaily caretaker! 

Link for others to join: https://twinsdaily.com/subscriptions

[SF Twins Fan]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Why do they have to build a bunch of strawmen? The Twins do not lose money every single year. NOBODY HAS SAID THEY DO.

The Twins have lost money since 2019 on a cumulative basis because of colossal losses in 2020, and a big loss in 2022 as the Twins expanded their payroll but revenues didn't follow. In 2023, had the Twins not made or advanced in the playoffs, it's likely they would have lost money. The Pohlads cut expenses, seemingly to about where they'd need to be to turn minimal profit if the the Twins missed the playoffs this year. They absolutely should expand their payroll in my opinion as they're in the playoff chase and they should expect revenue from that source.

If you add up the 49MM loss in 2020, the 10MM profit in 2021, the 27MM loss in 2022 and the 19MM profit in 2023 you get ($47MM) net in losses since 2019.

There is data behind the values. Most of it comes from Forbes, and they're a far more reputable source than the backside of angry fan commenters.


 

This chart doesn't make sense.  At the top is says player payroll and cash flow.  At the bottom is stats EoY salary and profit.  Cash flow and profit are two different things.

Again, as many people have pointed out paper losses don't equal actual losses.  In addition, if you throw out 2020, which is from covid and a complete outlier, the team has made $2 million since 2019.  What's their total profit since the taxpayer funded Target Field opened?

[bean5302]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, there might not be.

I don't want to make a trade just to make a trade though. I'd want a trade to win the World Series, not just to sneak into the playoffs as an underdog again.

I really wanted Zac Gallen, but the Diamondbacks stormed back instead of floundering. All of my evil finger interlocking in front of my face posing was for naught.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

It could be, but a bunch of that is tax return manipulation. How much of that is just paper loss? They got a new stadium so certainly most if not all of that 46M is depreciation and amortization. 

Here this the link.   NASDAQ - Atlanta Braves

It looks like $70M in depreciation.  A paper loss is a loss that has not been realized.  Depreciation is an expense that recognized over a period of multiple years.  If a business buys an asset with a 5 -year life, they don't recognize $50,000 in expense when they pay for the asset.  They recognize $10K/year.  That certainly does not change the legitimacy of the expense.   

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Cardinals gave up a lot. Edman is a 4-5 WAR infielder with 1.5yrs of control $2.3MM this year and $9.5MM next year. Like if the Twins had traded Brian Dozier in 2017 at the deadline instead of 2018.

Dozier's WAR was tied up in his offense, Edman's is in his defense. Middle of the order bats are more important for contenders. I think it's more like trading Nick Punto after his 2006 season. 

[Mike Sixel]

The Atlanta team uses the team/stadium area to build a massive redevelopment around it, and they are making plenty of money on that part of the business, while making it look like they are losing money on the team.....not every situation is the same.

I'll say it again, your company doesn't go from 44 million to 1.5 billion in value if you are losing money every year.....or at all overall. 

[USAFChief]

20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Cardinals gave up a lot. Edman is a 4-5 WAR infielder 

Tommy Edman? 

No.

[Major League Ready]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

The Atlanta team uses the team/stadium area to build a massive redevelopment around it, and they are making plenty of money on that part of the business, while making it look like they are losing money on the team.....not every situation is the same.

I'll say it again, your company doesn't go from 44 million to 1.5 billion in value if you are losing money every year.....or at all overall. 

The valuation of baseball teams baffles me a bit.  The Yankees are valued at 7.55B.  The average return on equity in the US is 10% and billionaires are not the guys making an average return.   7.5B would be expected to return $750M.  Even if the Yankees make $150M/year that's 20% of expected return on capital.

This kind of earnings multiple is common with Tech stocks or BIO tech that are expected to increase revenue and earnings by 5 or 10X but the talk around here is that baseball is in trouble.  

[bean5302]

12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Must have been somebody other than Edman.

Sorry you didn't recognize his name so he must suck. More value than anybody on the Twins not named Carlos Correa (or Buxton, lol) for 2019+ and guaranteed for 1.5yrs at $10MM total.
fWAR 2019+
Byron Buxton = 15.3 
Tommy Edman = 15.2 
Pablo Lopez = 14.9
Max Kepler = 12.7

[USAFChief]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Sorry you didn't recognize his name so he must suck. More value than anybody on the Twins not named Carlos Correa for 2019+ and guaranteed for 1.5yrs at $10MM total.
fWAR 2019+
Tommy Edman = 15.2 
Pablo Lopez = 14.9
Max Kepler = 12.7

Lol. Move the goalposts much?

Just admit you're wrong for a change. That's not what you claimed. You claimed he's a "4-5 WAR infielder."

He's not.

15.2 fWAR since 2019 does not equal "4-5 WAR infielder"

.700-ish OPS guy.

Not Brian Dozier either, BTW.

And for the record, I'm aware of who Tommy Edman is, which is why I was able to question your claim without looking it up.

 

 

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

 "Falvey and Levine have done a great job keeping us competitive with what they have to work with"

So did Ryan and Gardy, for as long as Falvine have been here, until the last 4 years when the bottom fell out.  We moved on to the new age, and have done.............well, about the same as before.  I'm sorry if this sound critical, because it is not meant to, but you have far more faith in this FO and field management than I, or a lot of others, do.  I have watched the team since the '65 world series, and I see the eras come and go.  We haven't been to the world series in, what, 33 years?  We have won one playoff series in what seems like a lifetime, and when we are in that window we stand pat?  As long as we have the mindset that we are a mid size market organization, we are going to be a middle of the pack organization; winning just often enough to keep an amount of interest needed to survive.  Most fans want more than that out of their teams, or why stay tuned?   

I am not going to pretend to tell the team who to trade for, or who to trade out; a lot of factors we don't see go into that beyond payroll.  But I do believe that if we look to the future too long, it passes us by, as it has done for longer than I care to remember.  Don't sacrifice the future sounds smart, and it usually is, but sometimes the window closes before the future arrives.  The window is open, but right now all I hear is crickets.........I sure would like to hear something else.  🙄

The playoffs is ultimately catching lightning in a bottle,  different strategies have worked,  2 elite pitchers,  ok pitching good hitting,  great bullpen ect.  Looking at this team,  you have right now would could be a very good bullpen,  2-3 solid to above average starting pitchers with SWR more than holding his own, and what could be a very good lineup with a lot of depth.  Besides a lefty reliever, there is not an obvious hole.  Ultimately you want as many shots to get to the playoffs,  and hope things begin to break your way.  I like the Braves approach of finding some cheap replacements without going all in from a couple years ago.  Ultimately I want us to continue to have internal options to provide the depth we need.  Trade values seem to be much better in the offseason.  Which means if they were to trade Duran,  it would likely be a trade heavily in the Twins favor, so ultimately I would not be too upset with it.  

[Major League Ready]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Lol

Just admit you're wrong for a change. 

15.2 fWAR since 2019 does not equal "4-5 WAR infielder."

He's at 0.6 in 2024, for example.

.700-ish OPS guy.

Not Brian Dozier either, BTW

 

 

He has produced 2.9-5.4 WAR when healthy accept last year when he had 2.4 WAR.  That's a pretty good player but he has not played at all in 2024 according to BB Reference and Fangraphs.  Am I missing something?

[Finlander]

1. Teams that cried "poor" after suffering a TV broadcast business mishap are getting up to a $15M subsidy from the MLB luxury tax pool to help balance the roster payroll hit. Will the Twins buy a player with their windfall, or stick it into their pockets?

2. Who are the marketing geniuses and clothing designers? I'd rather see investment into another good starting pitcher rather than several bizarre versions of uniforms that compel me to wear a welding helmet.

3. Jim should legally change his last name to "Griffith".

Happy Monday 😊 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The valuation of baseball teams baffles me a bit.  The Yankees are valued at 7.55B.  The average return on equity in the US is 10% and billionaires are not the guys making an average return.   7.5B would be expected to return $750M.  Even if the Yankees make $150M/year that's 20% of expected return on capital.

This kind of earnings multiple is common with Tech stocks or BIO tech that are expected to increase revenue and earnings by 5 or 10X but the talk around here is that baseball is in trouble.  

I'm guessing some of MLB might be in trouble someday, but that day is not today, apparently. As teams continue to sell in other sports no problem. We don't really have access to their books, so it is really hard to figure any of this out (the Atlanta team being an exception on several levels).

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Why do they have to build a bunch of strawmen? The Twins do not lose money every single year. NOBODY HAS SAID THEY DO.

The Twins have lost money since 2019 on a cumulative basis because of colossal losses in 2020, and a big loss in 2022 as the Twins expanded their payroll but revenues didn't follow. In 2023, had the Twins not made or advanced in the playoffs, it's likely they would have lost money. The Pohlads cut expenses, seemingly to about where they'd need to be to turn minimal profit if the the Twins missed the playoffs this year. They absolutely should expand their payroll in my opinion as they're in the playoff chase and they should expect revenue from that source.

If you add up the 49MM loss in 2020, the 10MM profit in 2021, the 27MM loss in 2022 and the 19MM profit in 2023 you get ($47MM) net in losses since 2019.

There is data behind the values. Most of it comes from Forbes, and they're a far more reputable source than the backside of angry fan commenters.


 

"The overall Twins franchise - inclusive of all entities - has supposedly been annually losing over $10MM on a cash basis for several years."

Is this not somebody saying the team loses money every year? Not just some money, but over $10 million a year "for several years." They didn't say they've averaged that loss, they said they lose it annually. Which means every year according to the dictionary. Maybe avoid the super-sized, bolded, italicized, underlined text when you're actively ignoring posts in the very thread you're condescending people in. 

Before you call me illiterate which seems to be your favorite word in this thread, here's the Merriam-Webster definition of annually: "once a year: each year." Examples: an event that occurs annually. a report that's published annually.

So, yes, people are claiming the Twins lose money every year.

If you want to argue the Twins are trying to make up for 2020 losses, cool. Makes sense. But your chart shows they've lost money in 3 of 21 full seasons. Suggesting they've ever lost money on a regular basis is ignoring your own data. 2020 is an outlier. If they want to try to make up for that, cool, but it is not an example of them running at a loss when participating in a normal, full MLB season. The Twins do not run at a loss over an extended period of time.

[Schmoeman5]

Twins and Guardians. Standing pat. 

[nicksaviking]

*****Moderator Note******

Some of the posts have crossed the line and gotten personal. Those posts have been hidden, but please tone it down going forward.

[chpettit19]

40 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Lol. Move the goalposts much?

Just admit you're wrong for a change. That's not what you claimed. You claimed he's a "4-5 WAR infielder."

He's not.

15.2 fWAR since 2019 does not equal "4-5 WAR infielder"

.700-ish OPS guy.

Not Brian Dozier either, BTW.

And for the record, I'm aware of who Tommy Edman is, which is why I was able to question your claim without looking it up.

 

 

 

I also don't believe he's stepped foot on a major league field in 2024. He did get to 4 WAR once in his career, though. Broke 3 WAR his rookie season, too. So if you ignore his other 3 seasons, and this mostly missed season, one could argue he's a 4-5 WAR player.

[Mark G]

36 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The playoffs is ultimately catching lightning in a bottle,  different strategies have worked,  2 elite pitchers,  ok pitching good hitting,  great bullpen ect.  Looking at this team,  you have right now would could be a very good bullpen,  2-3 solid to above average starting pitchers with SWR more than holding his own, and what could be a very good lineup with a lot of depth.  Besides a lefty reliever, there is not an obvious hole.  Ultimately you want as many shots to get to the playoffs,  and hope things begin to break your way.  I like the Braves approach of finding some cheap replacements without going all in from a couple years ago.  Ultimately I want us to continue to have internal options to provide the depth we need.  Trade values seem to be much better in the offseason.  Which means if they were to trade Duran,  it would likely be a trade heavily in the Twins favor, so ultimately I would not be too upset with it.  

Hmmmm.........the Twins have been to the playoffs 10 times since the turn of the century, and we have caught lightning in a bottle.........once?  And that being a 2/3 playoff series last year.  

Maybe it is just me, I get that, but I would like to do better than that.  If "going all in" means trying harder to go further in October..........I thought it over, and I want to go all in.  I get the impression Joe doesn't agree with me, so I guess I am over ruled, but it is still worth dreaming about.  

And if trading Duran would be heavily in the Twins favor, why not do it tomorrow?  Ah, just kidding...........sort of......😉

[Rhyno006]

Calvin Griffith bought the team in 1984 for something like $36 million dollars. According to Forbes this past March, the team is now worth $1.46 BILLION. Never mind that Jim inherited the team from his dad. I don't ever, EVER, want to hear from the Pohlad's on how they are losing money on the Twins.    EVER. 

 

None of us need the team to be north of $200 mil payroll, but my lord I'd love to see what the current front office could do with a payroll of even $175 mil given what they've been able to cobble together at these lower amounts. We could be AMAZING in this town man...

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Hmmmm.........the Twins have been to the playoffs 10 times since the turn of the century, and we have caught lightning in a bottle.........once?  And that being a 2/3 playoff series last year.  

Maybe it is just me, I get that, but I would like to do better than that.  If "going all in" means trying harder to go further in October..........I thought it over, and I want to go all in.  I get the impression Joe doesn't agree with me, so I guess I am over ruled, but it is still worth dreaming about.  

And if trading Duran would be heavily in the Twins favor, why not do it tomorrow?  Ah, just kidding...........sort of......😉

So would you rather have 1 option to win the WS in 5-6 yeas at maybe 20% probabilities,  or 5-6  with 6-8% for each year.  Going for it in 1 year, where you have to do massive overpays for minimal improvement is not a wise scenario.  Now you can go the Braves route,  where you get players that are struggling but have some pedigree and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.  If trading Duran is heavily in their favor they will, but that means you need to find someone willing to massively overpay.  Then the question is do they pivot and use resources to get another reliever and possibly another SP. Its all hypothetical at this point other than we know they are willing to listen to offers on Kepler and Duran.  

[Riverbrian]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I also don't believe he's stepped foot on a major league field in 2024. He did get to 4 WAR once in his career, though. Broke 3 WAR his rookie season, too. So if you ignore his other 3 seasons, and this mostly missed season, one could argue he's a 4-5 WAR player.

I'm not a WAR guy. It was already hard to convert me and these WAR reports on Edman has increased the distance I need to cover to be converted. 

😉

 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So would you rather have 1 option to win the WS in 5-6 yeas at maybe 20% probabilities,  or 5-6  with 6-8% for each year.  Going for it in 1 year, where you have to do massive overpays for minimal improvement is not a wise scenario.  Now you can go the Braves route,  where you get players that are struggling but have some pedigree and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.  If trading Duran is heavily in their favor they will, but that means you need to find someone willing to massively overpay.  Then the question is do they pivot and use resources to get another reliever and possibly another SP. Its all hypothetical at this point other than we know they are willing to listen to offers on Kepler and Duran.  

If "going for it" blows up your organization to the point that you're dropping your team from 5-6 chances to 1 chance, your organization isn't in a very good spot. If trading 2 or 3 good to really good prospects tanks 5-6 years of your team you're not close enough to "go for it."

If the Twins trade Festa and Keaschall or Zebby and Emma or any combination of their top 5 or 6 prospects do you believe it takes them from 5-6 years with 6-8% probabilities to just this year with a 20% chance while tanking the next 5-6?

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So would you rather have 1 option to win the WS in 5-6 yeas at maybe 20% probabilities,  or 5-6  with 6-8% for each year.  Going for it in 1 year, where you have to do massive overpays for minimal improvement is not a wise scenario.  Now you can go the Braves route,  where you get players that are struggling but have some pedigree and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.  If trading Duran is heavily in their favor they will, but that means you need to find someone willing to massively overpay.  Then the question is do they pivot and use resources to get another reliever and possibly another SP. Its all hypothetical at this point other than we know they are willing to listen to offers on Kepler and Duran.  

What Chpettit said.  🤭

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So would you rather have 1 option to win the WS in 5-6 yeas at maybe 20% probabilities,  or 5-6  with 6-8% for each year.  

I read somewhere that 73 percent of the percentages you read on the internet are made up on the spot.

[Eric Blonigen]

22 hours left. The Royals, Guardians, Yankees, Mariners, and now (likely) Astros have strengthened their teams today. Still waiting…