Three Uncontrollable Factors Are Helping the Twins' Competitors

[Eric Blonigen]

Objects in your rearview mirror may be closer than they appear.

Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

With 61 games left in the season and four days remaining before the trade deadline, the Twins currently have a one-game lead for the second wild card spot and the 17th-easiest remaining schedule. On paper, that’s a good place to be. However, as the trade market heats up, there are a number of factors that could conspire to make their standing precarious and could cause the team to miss the playoffs entirely. 

Looking at the playoff landscape, the Yankees and Orioles seem to have the AL East crown and first Wild Card spots locked up. Were the season to end today, the Twins would have the second wild card, and the Royals would earn the third. There are a number of teams in the hunt, such as the Red Sox, Mariners, and Rangers, who all have the talent for a deep playoff run and could beat out the Twins for a wild-card berth if things don’t break right for the team, or if the front office isn’t smart about maximizing their position.

Three factors can actively help the Twins' competitors. All three are outside the Twins' control.

Competitors Being Aggressive
Overnight, news broke that the Rays had traded Randy Arozarena to the Mariners. Over the past two months, he’s sporting a .919 OPS and immediately upgrades their lineup. He has averaged 3.4 bWAR per season and will give them a boost in their playoff push.

One team the Twins hoped were selling is clearly not. The Rangers are set to get Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle back from the IL, and just saw the return of Max Scherzer. Their front office says they hope to be buyers.

There are more. The Astros have been linked to Isaac Paredes and Eric Fedde, and are expected to get Justin Verlander back soon. The Orioles are talking with the Tigers about Tarik Skubal. The Red Sox are on the record as looking for impact starting pitching and right-handed bats. While the Royals haven’t been publicly linked to any big names, they spent big this offseason and appear to be all-in this year.

Any of these teams could easily land Garrett Crochet, and any team making a big deadline move could earn a couple surplus wins over their current roster construction. If the Twins do not trade for at least one impact player, that would put them at a distinct disadvantage.

Reallocation of CBT Funds
On Wednesday, MLB and the MLBPA announced a renegotiation of the Competitive Balance Tax disbursement, agreeing to redirect funds to teams whose RSN broadcast fees have negatively impacted their ability to field a quality team. This is likely to shake up contending teams’ perception of their finances and resulting willingness to take on additional salary.

While we don’t know how these funds will end up being allocated, we do know that teams are eligible to receive up to $15M based on their TV revenue losses. The Mariners, Astros, Guardians, Rangers, and Twins are among the American League teams who may be among the recipients of these funds. However, the payout is expected to be capped at $75M league wide, and will likely be proportionately doled out in relation to financial losses, so we could see any of those other teams receive more cash than the Twins and attempt to outbid the Twins for similar players.

Strength of Schedule
With the 17th-easiest strength of schedule, the Twins should be able to play better than .500 ball the rest of the way as they get healthier. However, many of the other teams in the playoff hunt have even easier schedules to play. Here are the AL competitors' remaining schedule strength, from easiest to hardest.

Yankees 1st
Rangers 2nd
Mariners 4th
Orioles 5th
Tigers 7th
Twins 8th
Astros 9th
Royals 11th
Red Sox 13th
Guardians 14th
Rays 15th

As you can see, looking at playoff contenders, the Twins are in the middle of the pack, with the Yankees, Rangers, Mariners, and Orioles likely to pick up a game or two over the Twins on schedule strength alone.

Overall, when looking at all of the above factors, a few teams stand out as being the biggest threats to the Twins' playoff chances. The Mariners have been aggressive on the trade market, have additional CBT funds, and have an easy schedule. The Rangers haven’t yet been aggressive with trades but have said they hope to be buyers, will also receive CBT funds, and have a very easy schedule. The Yankees are the Yankees, and not making a big splash would be a bigger surprise than if they do. 

Based on these factors, it’s clear that if the Twins hope to control their destiny, there should be a significant sense of urgency to trade for an impact player and to do it soon. If the Twins don’t, it’s possible they will find themselves squeezed out of the playoff picture entirely by a couple of teams that aren't afraid to be aggressive.

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What do you think? Should the Twins make a big splash, even if it means losing some valuable prospects? Who would you like them to trade for? Comment below to get the discussion started!

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[tony&rodney]

There are still some players to check on but the Twins missed on two good ones already, Puk and Arozarena. I kind of doubt that Falvey is in on anyone substantial but it sure doesn't hurt to be optimistic. 

How about Snell? That's optimistic.

[Eric Blonigen]

49 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

There are still some players to check on but the Twins missed on two good ones already, Puk and Arozarena. I kind of doubt that Falvey is in on anyone substantial but it sure doesn't hurt to be optimistic. 

How about Snell? That's optimistic.

That would be a big splash, for sure. He does have a $30M player option  for next year, with $15M deferred to 2027. I can't imagine the Twins taking that on with their payroll (in)flexibility. Then again, I didn't think the Twins would sign Donaldson or Correa, and here we are. He is only owed about $5M the rest of the season so it's not completely out of the question. 

[tony&rodney]

36 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

That would be a big splash, for sure. He does have a $30M player option  for next year, with $15M deferred to 2027. I can't imagine the Twins taking that on with their payroll (in)flexibility. Then again, I didn't think the Twins would sign Donaldson or Correa, and here we are. He is only owed about $5M the rest of the season so it's not completely out of the question. 

Yes, but as others have pointed out there is no way Snell chooses his option. Snell is going back on the market this coming offseason. The big question is what it takes to pry him away from San Francisco. 

[Eric Blonigen]

15 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, but as others have pointed out there is no way Snell chooses his option. Snell is going back on the market this coming offseason. The big question is what it takes to pry him away from San Francisco. 

According to Baseball Trade Values (in as much as they are accurate) Snell has essentially even surplus value to his contract. That said, I would imagine the starting ask would involve one of our top 3-4 prospects. We might be able to talk them down to two of Keaschall, Festa, and Matthews and a lottery ticket or two. The price would hurt, I have to imagine.

[mikelink45]

I am not concerned about a trade or signing.  We have a good team.  Just play the games and keep healthy.

[USAFChief]

Snell.

Get it done.

[HerbieFan]

Stewart, Topa, Varland (it's inevitable right?) and Paddack (also inevitable right?) strengthen the bullpen.  Lewis, Correa and Miranda coming back solidify the lineup.

What's left?  Starting pitching (like every other playoff contender).  If anyone thinks they're adding an impact starter they haven't been paying attention to what ownership is doing to tie the hands of the FO.

My call?  It's going to a back-of-the-rotation starter to help get the to the playoffs.  One they can get cheap.  Then they'll be forced to ride with Lopez/Ryan/Ober and hope for the best.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

Stewart, Topa, Varland (it's inevitable right?) and Paddack (also inevitable right?) strengthen the bullpen.  Lewis, Correa and Miranda coming back solidify the lineup.

What's left?  Starting pitching (like every other playoff contender).  If anyone thinks they're adding an impact starter they haven't been paying attention to what ownership is doing to tie the hands of the FO.

My call?  It's going to a back-of-the-rotation starter to help get the to the playoffs.  One they can get cheap.  Then they'll be forced to ride with Lopez/Ryan/Ober and hope for the best.

The recent versions of Lopez, Ryan, and Ober have been pretty good. SWR has a better ERA than any of the three and just threw a very competitive outing against the Phillies. Yeah, he only has 88 IP this year, but the Yankees best starting pitcher ERA is Luis Gil, and he has only thrown 107 IP.

[Karbo]

They could have gotten Paxton pretty cheap. He went to the Red Sox for a minor leaguer.

[Whitey333]

I don't anticipate the Twins making a trade of any real significance.  Ownership won't allow that to happen.  Trading for a top rental starting pitcher would be nice but why give up a good prospect for a pitcher that may only be here for 9 starts?  Idk.  Plus I'm sure any additional monies the Twins get from the recent agreement with the players association that could be up to 15 million to help offset lost tv revenue will just line the owners pockets.

[Joe Schmitt]

Actually I think the key factor is one not mentioned in this article, which is health.  I suppose the Twins have some control over the health of their own players, but they have no control over the health of the players on the other teams.  And wow, the Guardians have had really good luck with health.

[LambchoP]

I think the only moves we can hope for are bullpen upgrades. Puk would have been perfect for us. Relatively cheap price (2 mid level prospects), affordable salary and he's controllable for two more years. Exactly what the Twins need, an impact lefty handed reliever. Maybe even two so we can release Theilbar and send Funderburk back to AAA. A playoff starter would be nice, IF we don't have to give up top prospects to get him....but with basically every team looking for pitching, everyone is going to have to overpay for SP probably.

[JD-TWINS]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

There are still some players to check on but the Twins missed on two good ones already, Puk and Arozarena. I kind of doubt that Falvey is in on anyone substantial but it sure doesn't hurt to be optimistic. 

How about Snell? That's optimistic.

Margot and Arozerena have the same career Batting Average……….Arozarena is more athletic…….he’s hitting .214 with a .712 OPS……Seattle is offensively challenged, to say the least, Randy is hardly going to carry them into the playoffs, IMO. His postseason OPS is cited here but it’s meaningless on July 27th with 60 games to go.

Margot is hitting .235 with a career average of .254 - Arozerena is hitting .214 with a career average of .256. To me, he doesn’t move the needle.

Puk is a big strong guy (so is Funderburk) but in ‘24, he’s mediocre at best! He strikes out 1 guy per inning but his WHIP is 1.341….not good…..ERA of 4.30……IMO, he’s not our guy.

Would love to see Team go after a “difference maker” not just somebody we’ve all heard of in year’s past. Tanner Scott or bust from my point of view………how about Okert (2 more years of control) back to Marlins to help fill the void going forward along with Severino & Keirsey…..,,does Headrick have any upside for a trading partner? Scott’s only with them another 2 months and they are in trade mode - just a matter of who offers best deal.

[JD-TWINS]

11 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I think the only moves we can hope for are bullpen upgrades. Puk would have been perfect for us. Relatively cheap price (2 mid level prospects), affordable salary and he's controllable for two more years. Exactly what the Twins need, an impact lefty handed reliever. Maybe even two so we can release Theilbar and send Funderburk back to AAA. A playoff starter would be nice, IF we don't have to give up top prospects to get him....but with basically every team looking for pitching, everyone is going to have to overpay for SP probably.

Puk is a harder throwing Okert …….. both at 4.30 ERA this year - both ERA’s are higher than career average - both have poor WHIPs this year.

To date Puk has a 0.00 WAR for this season and Okert has a -0.10 WAR …….need a bigger upgrade!

[Parfigliano]

14 hours ago, Eric Blonigen said:

According to Baseball Trade Values (in as much as they are accurate) Snell has essentially even surplus value to his contract. That said, I would imagine the starting ask would involve one of our top 3-4 prospects. We might be able to talk them down to two of Keaschall, Festa, and Matthews and a lottery ticket or two. The price would hurt, I have to imagine.

For a couple months rental...no thanks.

[Brandon]

15 hours ago, Eric Blonigen said:

According to Baseball Trade Values (in as much as they are accurate) Snell has essentially even surplus value to his contract. That said, I would imagine the starting ask would involve one of our top 3-4 prospects. We might be able to talk them down to two of Keaschall, Festa, and Matthews and a lottery ticket or two. The price would hurt, I have to imagine.

I was ok with trading for Snell until I read this.  Ouch,  that’s too expensive.

 Thought the Twins would trade for Paxton at his price it was ideal.  But I’m fine with the depth we have to get through the season.  Festa, Mathews or Dobnak can get starts the rest of the season.  Nick Nelson has been pointing out how good Dobnak has been the last 8 starts or so… I also hope we trade for an upgrade starter too but won’t be upset if we don’t get the shiny new toy.

the best trade scenario I can think of would be pitching prospect Culpepper and Severino and maybe Dobnak for Kikuchi.  The trades so far seem to be 14 th and 25-30 ranked prospects in their system for a rental.  Include Dobnak cause he has some potential and he clears cash.

[Eric Blonigen]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I don't anticipate the Twins making a trade of any real significance.  Ownership won't allow that to happen.  Trading for a top rental starting pitcher would be nice but why give up a good prospect for a pitcher that may only be here for 9 starts?  Idk.  Plus I'm sure any additional monies the Twins get from the recent agreement with the players association that could be up to 15 million to help offset lost tv revenue will just line the owners pockets.

Well, depending on the caliber of player, those nine starts could be the difference between making a deep playoff run and missing the playoffs entirely. But, I agree. I would advocate for a frontline pitcher with another year of control as well. That would set the team up incredibly well for next year before having to make some tough decisions in 2026 from a payroll standpoint.

[Franchise Adams]

Sure the Twins have a middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule, but the teams they more most closely competing with are Cleveland, KC, and Boston, and those teams all have a harder schedule. I think that's the main takeaway from the schedule comparison.

[dxpavelka]

None of those factors are really factors.  The only real factor is how guys play between the white lines. 

[Beast]

There is always a prevailing fear amongst Twins fans in giving up prospects.  My thoughts:

1) No risk, no rewards.  Every championship team is aggressive at the deadline. You have to be, unless you already have a rock solid rotation in place with an elite ace-level headliner.

2) This team is nowhere near seriously challenging for a World Series.  We’ve seen their results against the best teams.  The pitching staff is not good enough.  They can score runs, but can guys like Castro, Miranda, Jeffers, Larnach, and Wallner get it done in the playoffs to the extent to offset subpar pitching?  The jury is still out.  Theyre unlikely to beat any of the top AL teams in a playoff series as currently constructed in my opinion.  Let alone multiple series.

3) Prospects are often wildly overrated.  How many of these guys they’ve traded away in recent would actually make a difference?  You could argue none.  Would Steer make any difference exceeding Castro or Lee or Lewis?  Would CES provide significantly  more than Miranda, Larnach or Wallner?  None of the SP prospects we’ve traded would be helping right now.

At some point, the question is whether you want to win a World Series or not.  We’ve spent decades being conservative and waiting for prospect stars to align.  That is not a viable strategy, unless you’re OK with what we’ve gotten over since 2001.

Id rather go for it and push the chips in at some point.  If Lopez continues to look good, Ober stays healthy, and Ryan avoids the second half collapse, adding a Skubal makes this a legitimate rotation.  Throwing in another competent late inning guy (that is not Varland, Paddack, or Topa) gets them another step closer.  They still might not win it, but they’d have a much better chance.  They’re much more likely to push for a WS appearance or an ALCS, which is still much better than what we’ve seen.  It’s worth it.

Also, no, getting guys back from injury is not like making a trade.  I despise that annual trope.  They aren’t good enough with those guys all healthy.  Why would we assume everyone is going to be healthy for the playoffs anyway?

Im not advocating they trade Jenkins or Rodriguez.  But, if they can get a legit pitcher for a package of Keaschall, Raya, Festa, etc., and a sell high major league piece like Larnach, Miranda, or SWR, I’m in.  Some of these position players should be jettisoned from the roster soon anyway.  Lee, Lewis, Correa, Buxton, etc. aren’t going anywhere for a long, long time.  You have to maximize the value of some of these guys while you can.  You don’t want to wait for the fall out like Julien and be stuck with a bad player taking up a roster spot.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Margot and Arozerena have the same career Batting Average……….Arozarena is more athletic…….he’s hitting .214 with a .712 OPS……Seattle is offensively challenged, to say the least, Randy is hardly going to carry them into the playoffs, IMO. His postseason OPS is cited here but it’s meaningless on July 27th with 60 games to go.

Margot is hitting .235 with a career average of .254 - Arozerena is hitting .214 with a career average of .256. To me, he doesn’t move the needle.

Puk is a big strong guy (so is Funderburk) but in ‘24, he’s mediocre at best! He strikes out 1 guy per inning but his WHIP is 1.341….not good…..ERA of 4.30……IMO, he’s not our guy.

Would love to see Team go after a “difference maker” not just somebody we’ve all heard of in year’s past. Tanner Scott or bust from my point of view………how about Okert (2 more years of control) back to Marlins to help fill the void going forward along with Severino & Keirsey…..,,does Headrick have any upside for a trading partner? Scott’s only with them another 2 months and they are in trade mode - just a matter of who offers best deal.

Comparing Margot and Arozarena based on batting average. Seriously??

Citing Puk's season numbers without knowing Miami tried to make him a starter this year. Remove those four starts, and get back to us. Puk will be the best or second best LH reliever moved this year. He was the absolute perfect fit.

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Comparing Margot and Arozarena based on batting average. Seriously??

Citing Puk's season numbers without knowing Miami tried to make him a starter this year. Remove those four starts, and get back to us. Puk will be the best or second best LH reliever moved this year. He was the absolute perfect fit.

 

 

Tanner Scott is the absolute perfect fit!

Could give a rip about Margot….tired of the whining about Margot for four months.

Arozerena is hitting .214, with a .714 OPS stands all on its own. He’s not that good of player - period.

I know Puk was made a starter - so what - he’s pitched 44 innings total and it’s the end of July. Obviously, he didn’t rack up too many innings in his starting role. His ERA is what it is……I could make up a list of 4-5 reasons Okert’s ERA isn’t representative of his best work either.

PUK STARTED SOME GAMES THIS YEAR & WAS NOT VERY GOOD. Is that transparent enough?

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Beast said:

There is always a prevailing fear amongst Twins fans in giving up prospects.  My thoughts:

1) No risk, no rewards.  Every championship team is aggressive at the deadline. You have to be, unless you already have a rock solid rotation in place with an elite ace-level headliner.

2) This team is nowhere near seriously challenging for a World Series.  We’ve seen their results against the best teams.  The pitching staff is not good enough.  They can score runs, but can guys like Castro, Miranda, Jeffers, Larnach, and Wallner get it done in the playoffs to the extent to offset subpar pitching?  The jury is still out.  Theyre unlikely to beat any of the top AL teams in a playoff series as currently constructed in my opinion.  Let alone multiple series.

3) Prospects are often wildly overrated.  How many of these guys they’ve traded away in recent would actually make a difference?  You could argue none.  Would Steer make any difference exceeding Castro or Lee or Lewis?  Would CES provide significantly  more than Miranda, Larnach or Wallner?  None of the SP prospects we’ve traded would be helping right now.

At some point, the question is whether you want to win a World Series or not.  We’ve spent decades being conservative and waiting for prospect stars to align.  That is not a viable strategy, unless you’re OK with what we’ve gotten over since 2001.

Id rather go for it and push the chips in at some point.  If Lopez continues to look good, Ober stays healthy, and Ryan avoids the second half collapse, adding a Skubal makes this a legitimate rotation.  Throwing in another competent late inning guy (that is not Varland, Paddack, or Topa) gets them another step closer.  They still might not win it, but they’d have a much better chance.  They’re much more likely to push for a WS appearance or an ALCS, which is still much better than what we’ve seen.  It’s worth it.

Also, no, getting guys back from injury is not like making a trade.  I despise that annual trope.  They aren’t good enough with those guys all healthy.  Why would we assume everyone is going to be healthy for the playoffs anyway?

Im not advocating they trade Jenkins or Rodriguez.  But, if they can get a legit pitcher for a package of Keaschall, Raya, Festa, etc., and a sell high major league piece like Larnach, Miranda, or SWR, I’m in.  Some of these position players should be jettisoned from the roster soon anyway.  Lee, Lewis, Correa, Buxton, etc. aren’t going anywhere for a long, long time.  You have to maximize the value of some of these guys while you can.  You don’t want to wait for the fall out like Julien and be stuck with a bad player taking up a roster spot.

No problem with the premise …”gotta give up serious value to get serious value” …..the details are not that important because they are subjective with every potential trade partner. Agreed in general!

I live in Cincinnati - Steer wouldn’t displace Castro he’d have Margot’s spot on the roster with the Twins. Steer was voted Red’s MVP last year in his first full season. He’s got 64 RBI & 41 XBH including 15 HR’s …….he’d be a big plus for the Twins…….playing 4 different defensive positions and he has a 1.7 WAR with 60 games left & Margot has a -.80 WAR. pretty big difference 70% through the season. Bottom line - nobody knows who’s going to end up doing what, until it happens…. just trying to give the organization best shot by assembling low risk, high potential guys.

SWR has started 17 games and has his WHIP down to 1.114……..ERA of 3.25…..he’s 23. Do not, IMO, think it makes any sense to include him in a package. I think the Team should jump in with both feet for Tanner Scott to tighten up the Pen………with him it could be elite over the last 2 months.

Q: Who does the organization go after that is worth 3 of Twin’s top prospects……who is the worthy pitcher? Being willing to make a trade using high value pieces is one thing but there has to be a balancing, worthwhile piece coming back. IMO, Tigers aren’t trading to help the Twins - White Sox not trading to help Twins. 

Packaging Julien as an upside throw in with a valued prospect or Kirilloff as an upside throw in with a prospect are both reasonable moves. Again major subjectivity here……a high value prospect like Raya - Julien - Severino could come together to get someone of value - not sure they’ll offer enough to get anyone back that’s better than SWR - ……that’s your point I guess!

[arby58]

22 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

There are still some players to check on but the Twins missed on two good ones already, Puk and Arozarena. I kind of doubt that Falvey is in on anyone substantial but it sure doesn't hurt to be optimistic. 

How about Snell? That's optimistic.

The Twins are 3rd in the AL in runs scored - they don't need (or probably want) Arozarena. Listing these types is little more than FOMO.

[Guest]

8 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I don't anticipate the Twins making a trade of any real significance.  Ownership won't allow that to happen.  Trading for a top rental starting pitcher would be nice but why give up a good prospect for a pitcher that may only be here for 9 starts?  Idk.  Plus I'm sure any additional monies the Twins get from the recent agreement with the players association that could be up to 15 million to help offset lost tv revenue will just line the owners pockets.

If ownership won’t allow it then I sincerely hope they are not allowed to receive any of the competitive tax dispersal. I can just see them getting 10 million and not do anything to improve the team.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

The Twins are 3rd in the AL in runs scored - they don't need (or probably want) Arozarena. Listing these types is little more than FOMO.

Of course, the Twins are loaded with guys who have hit 10 postseason home runs.

I don't care that the Twins didn't trade for Arozarena but he is a dude. I actually don't think the Twins will add anyone, which is fine too.

[Eric Blonigen]

1 hour ago, Verified Member said:

If ownership won’t allow it then I sincerely hope they are not allowed to receive any of the competitive tax dispersal. I can just see them getting 10 million and not do anything to improve the team.

As it’s written, the CBT disbursal must be used to improve the product on the field. Theoretically, whatever the Twins are given will go towards trade salary. Maybe they could argue that beefing up the analytics staff even further would also improve the on-field product, but my sense is they are already near the front of the pack there. So, I would imagine they are getting at least $5mil and potentially as much as $10mil and that should go directly towards a trade.

Edited July 27, 2024 by Eric Blonigen

[arby58]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Of course, the Twins are loaded with guys who have hit 10 postseason home runs.

Correa has 18. Lewis has 4 in 6 post-season games. I doubt Arozarena in his current form can be counted on for post-season HRs.

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Correa has 18. Lewis has 4 in 6 post-season games. I doubt Arozarena in his current form can be counted on for post-season HRs.

Ok, I get it. Arozarena plays for Seattle and you like Lewis. It's all good. 

Side note - sure hope Correa can return soon and finish the year strong.