Three Uncontrollable Factors Are Helping the Twins' Competitors

There are still some players to check on but the Twins missed on two good ones already, Puk and Arozarena. I kind of doubt that Falvey is in on anyone substantial but it sure doesn't hurt to be optimistic. 

How about Snell? That's optimistic.

36 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

That would be a big splash, for sure. He does have a $30M player option  for next year, with $15M deferred to 2027. I can't imagine the Twins taking that on with their payroll (in)flexibility. Then again, I didn't think the Twins would sign Donaldson or Correa, and here we are. He is only owed about $5M the rest of the season so it's not completely out of the question. 

Yes, but as others have pointed out there is no way Snell chooses his option. Snell is going back on the market this coming offseason. The big question is what it takes to pry him away from San Francisco. 

Stewart, Topa, Varland (it's inevitable right?) and Paddack (also inevitable right?) strengthen the bullpen.  Lewis, Correa and Miranda coming back solidify the lineup.

What's left?  Starting pitching (like every other playoff contender).  If anyone thinks they're adding an impact starter they haven't been paying attention to what ownership is doing to tie the hands of the FO.

My call?  It's going to a back-of-the-rotation starter to help get the to the playoffs.  One they can get cheap.  Then they'll be forced to ride with Lopez/Ryan/Ober and hope for the best.

I don't anticipate the Twins making a trade of any real significance.  Ownership won't allow that to happen.  Trading for a top rental starting pitcher would be nice but why give up a good prospect for a pitcher that may only be here for 9 starts?  Idk.  Plus I'm sure any additional monies the Twins get from the recent agreement with the players association that could be up to 15 million to help offset lost tv revenue will just line the owners pockets.

Actually I think the key factor is one not mentioned in this article, which is health.  I suppose the Twins have some control over the health of their own players, but they have no control over the health of the players on the other teams.  And wow, the Guardians have had really good luck with health.

I think the only moves we can hope for are bullpen upgrades. Puk would have been perfect for us. Relatively cheap price (2 mid level prospects), affordable salary and he's controllable for two more years. Exactly what the Twins need, an impact lefty handed reliever. Maybe even two so we can release Theilbar and send Funderburk back to AAA. A playoff starter would be nice, IF we don't have to give up top prospects to get him....but with basically every team looking for pitching, everyone is going to have to overpay for SP probably.

15 hours ago, Eric Blonigen said:

According to Baseball Trade Values (in as much as they are accurate) Snell has essentially even surplus value to his contract. That said, I would imagine the starting ask would involve one of our top 3-4 prospects. We might be able to talk them down to two of Keaschall, Festa, and Matthews and a lottery ticket or two. The price would hurt, I have to imagine.

I was ok with trading for Snell until I read this.  Ouch,  that’s too expensive.

 Thought the Twins would trade for Paxton at his price it was ideal.  But I’m fine with the depth we have to get through the season.  Festa, Mathews or Dobnak can get starts the rest of the season.  Nick Nelson has been pointing out how good Dobnak has been the last 8 starts or so… I also hope we trade for an upgrade starter too but won’t be upset if we don’t get the shiny new toy.

the best trade scenario I can think of would be pitching prospect Culpepper and Severino and maybe Dobnak for Kikuchi.  The trades so far seem to be 14 th and 25-30 ranked prospects in their system for a rental.  Include Dobnak cause he has some potential and he clears cash.

Sure the Twins have a middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule, but the teams they more most closely competing with are Cleveland, KC, and Boston, and those teams all have a harder schedule. I think that's the main takeaway from the schedule comparison.

None of those factors are really factors.  The only real factor is how guys play between the white lines. 

There is always a prevailing fear amongst Twins fans in giving up prospects.  My thoughts:

1) No risk, no rewards.  Every championship team is aggressive at the deadline. You have to be, unless you already have a rock solid rotation in place with an elite ace-level headliner.

2) This team is nowhere near seriously challenging for a World Series.  We’ve seen their results against the best teams.  The pitching staff is not good enough.  They can score runs, but can guys like Castro, Miranda, Jeffers, Larnach, and Wallner get it done in the playoffs to the extent to offset subpar pitching?  The jury is still out.  Theyre unlikely to beat any of the top AL teams in a playoff series as currently constructed in my opinion.  Let alone multiple series.

3) Prospects are often wildly overrated.  How many of these guys they’ve traded away in recent would actually make a difference?  You could argue none.  Would Steer make any difference exceeding Castro or Lee or Lewis?  Would CES provide significantly  more than Miranda, Larnach or Wallner?  None of the SP prospects we’ve traded would be helping right now.

At some point, the question is whether you want to win a World Series or not.  We’ve spent decades being conservative and waiting for prospect stars to align.  That is not a viable strategy, unless you’re OK with what we’ve gotten over since 2001.

Id rather go for it and push the chips in at some point.  If Lopez continues to look good, Ober stays healthy, and Ryan avoids the second half collapse, adding a Skubal makes this a legitimate rotation.  Throwing in another competent late inning guy (that is not Varland, Paddack, or Topa) gets them another step closer.  They still might not win it, but they’d have a much better chance.  They’re much more likely to push for a WS appearance or an ALCS, which is still much better than what we’ve seen.  It’s worth it.

Also, no, getting guys back from injury is not like making a trade.  I despise that annual trope.  They aren’t good enough with those guys all healthy.  Why would we assume everyone is going to be healthy for the playoffs anyway?

Im not advocating they trade Jenkins or Rodriguez.  But, if they can get a legit pitcher for a package of Keaschall, Raya, Festa, etc., and a sell high major league piece like Larnach, Miranda, or SWR, I’m in.  Some of these position players should be jettisoned from the roster soon anyway.  Lee, Lewis, Correa, Buxton, etc. aren’t going anywhere for a long, long time.  You have to maximize the value of some of these guys while you can.  You don’t want to wait for the fall out like Julien and be stuck with a bad player taking up a roster spot.

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

The Twins are 3rd in the AL in runs scored - they don't need (or probably want) Arozarena. Listing these types is little more than FOMO.

Of course, the Twins are loaded with guys who have hit 10 postseason home runs.

I don't care that the Twins didn't trade for Arozarena but he is a dude. I actually don't think the Twins will add anyone, which is fine too.

6 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Correa has 18. Lewis has 4 in 6 post-season games. I doubt Arozarena in his current form can be counted on for post-season HRs.

Ok, I get it. Arozarena plays for Seattle and you like Lewis. It's all good. 

Side note - sure hope Correa can return soon and finish the year strong.

After watching the Twins bullpen blow the lead Saturday, it's pretty clear we need a LHRP if not two...