What Has Walker Jenkins Done in One Year for the Minnesota Twins?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last season the Minnesota Twins wound up with the fifth overall pick during the 2023 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft. In a loaded class, there were a few standout prospects, and Walker Jenkins was the last remaining. Not deviating from a chalk decision, they clearly got it right.

This season Paul Skenes became the first Pittsburgh Pirates rookie to make the All-Star Game. Dylan Crews was recently promoted to Triple-A, and Wyatt Langford made the Texas Rangers Opening Day roster. Max Clark remains at Low-A for Detroit, but he certainly isn’t Walker Jenkins.

In their recent top 100 update, MLB Pipeline had Jenkins ranked fifth amongst all prospects in baseball. Baseball America followed suit by ranking him sixth. Both outlets did that despite the Twins prospect missing a significant amount of time during the first half after suffering a hamstring injury on Opening Day for Fort Myers.

There was certainly a path for Jenkins to follow a Jackson Holliday trajectory for the Twins. He could have reached Double or Triple-A with an accelerated season this year, and being a 26-man roster consideration relatively quickly for Rocco Baldelli would have ensued in 2025. That isn’t going to play out following his injury, but he has returned and looked like every bit of the star Minnesota has hoped he would be.

After a nine-game rehab assignment with the Complex League team in which he posted a .393/.514/.571 slash line, Jenkins has played 22 games for Fort Myers. He has just a .730 OPS, in part because the power stroke hasn’t taken off, but his .373 OBP tells the story. Jenkins has drawn 17 walks to just 13 strikeouts, and he’s forcing less talented pitchers to come into his hitting zone.

Jenkins doesn’t expand, and his process is one that continually seeks to do damage. Hitting three home runs during his first professional season, Jenkins has blasted a pair in 2024. He is being eased back into action with the Mighty Mussels putting him at the designated hitter spot more often than centerfield, but those training wheels will ultimately fall off.

Fort Myers needs a productive Jenkins the rest of the way to be relevant, and if they get the best version, then he could certainly finish the year with Cedar Rapids. Just 19 years old, Jenkins remains a raw product that is advanced beyond his age, and he should be expected to continually test the restraints of whatever level he plays.

The second half of his season will largely define 2024 for Jenkins. Missing so much time to start the year has given him something of a failure to launch definition, but the talent picked right back up where it left off. There are few years in which an organization can grab a prospect at the fifth pick and be almost guaranteed a generational talent. That happened a year ago, and the Twins are just beginning to see the benefit of that.

While Minnesota will have a down-the-board selection next week, continuing to develop and cash in on Walker Jenkins is something that the franchise can feel the effects of for years to come. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee are here now, but Jenkins joining them is something the entire fanbase can get behind for the future.

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[Linus]

I’ll say this again - people need to slow the roll with all prospects. He’s 19 and in low A. There is a whole lotta baseball to be played before he is even close to the bigs. And of course he may not turn out to be the star everyone is counting on. Expectations get so high for some of these guys that it’s almost impossible for them to meet them. I think this is why some people get so down on Buck. Rarely do prospects hit their best possible outcome. 

[Doctor Gast]

. What impresses me the most about Jenkins right now is his plate discipline. It's a good foundation to work from. Jenkins should not be rushed. He needs to dominate on each level before he's promoted. It's better for Jenkins & there's no absolute need for him so take it slow.

[LambchoP]

It's nice to see a young guy walking as much as striking out. He'll be a good player for us I'm sure, but he's still years away. I think Emmanuel Rodriguez will be the outfielder to look at for a call up next year if he keeps hitting like he has this year. Maybe eventually take over left field. Rodriguez, Buxton and Wallner is a pretty good OF.

[Dman]

I like the underlying numbers for walk and K rate.  I don't know what kind of contact he is making, but most of the times I have watched it has been weak contact I believe.  Maybe someone can give us more info on that?  If it is mainly weak contact then he needs to have the bat in better position to hit breaking balls.

The approach is sound and that foundation is very important for future success.  Now he needs to figure out how to better hit breaking stuff and off speed pitches.  I think when he gains more skill there he will take off.  No reason to be overly discouraged right now.  If he was striking out a ton and chasing and not walking that would be concerning.  He's not doing that.  Let's give the kid a full year and see how he does.  I still think he ends up a monster bat.  It might just take more time than the crazy Holiday scenario.

[roger]

Appreciate your report as I hadn't seen a lot about his play other than the daily box scores.  Really appreciate it.  

What impressed me the most was the number 13.  13 K's compared to 17 walks for a kid a year out of high school is flat out unbelievable. 

[BH67]

Lewis. Lee. Wallner. Rodriguez. Ryan. Festa. Jenkins. Et cetera.

We cheer their successes and lament their struggles.

I am delighted, despite protestations otherwise here, that having so many to cheer and lament is the sign of a successful farm system.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I’ll say this again - people need to slow the roll with all prospects. He’s 19 and in low A. There is a whole lotta baseball to be played before he is even close to the bigs. And of course he may not turn out to be the star everyone is counting on. Expectations get so high for some of these guys that it’s almost impossible for them to meet them. I think this is why some people get so down on Buck. Rarely do prospects hit their best possible outcome. 

Elite prospects almost always move through systems fast, barring serious injury. If your elite prospect is languishing around, it's a pretty good sign they're not actually elite after all.

Expected time to MLB?
Elite Prospects, College = 1-2 years
Elite Prospects,  High School = 2-3 years <--- Walker Jenkins
Good Prospects, College = 2-3 years
Good Prospects, High School = 3-4 years

The expectation would be for Walker Jenkins to be in A+ ball by the end of the year.
2023 = Rookie/A-
2024 = A- / A+
2025 = A+ / AA
2026 = AAA / MLB
That is the path of expectations, barring injury, if Walker Jenkins is really an good MLB player in the making. Things can go sideways for a year, but not longer than that before expectations are cooled significantly.

Jenkins obviously missed a ton of time at the beginning of the season with the hammy, but when he returned, he had no power whatsoever. Even now, his ISO remains poor. He's currently "better than average" in his second go 'round of Low A. Still only 158 PA in Ft Myers, but it's becoming a concern to me.

Jenkins recently moved up prospect lists because of the hype machine. It's certainly not from his production. His high ranking HS peers drafted after him are performing as good or better as well.

*Blake Mitchell went #8, and everybody should know the Twins need catching depth badly. 
In 310 plate appearances in Low A, .261/.400/.474 OPS .874 wRC+ 156. 
*Nobel Meyer went #10 and he's in A+ ball.
College guys available at Jenkins' spot
**Jacob Wilson #6 (AAA) - .446/.486/.738 OPS 1.224 wRC+ 202
**Rhett Lowder #7 (AA) - 6.52 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
**Chase Dollander #8 (A+) - 2.83 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 14.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9
**Nolan Schuanel #11 (MLB) - .240/.317/.353 OPS .670 wRC+ 91. Literally played 20 games in the minors and then was called up to the big show.

[Mike Sixel]

I dont agree with bean much, but elite prospects don't spend four years in the minors.... They move fast. This idea that we should slow the roll is not consistent with him being a top ten prospect at all. 

[Dman]

21 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Elite prospects almost always move through systems fast, barring serious injury. If your elite prospect is languishing around, it's a pretty good sign they're not actually elite after all.

Expected time to MLB?
Elite Prospects, College = 1-2 years
Elite Prospects,  High School = 2-3 years <--- Walker Jenkins
Good Prospects, College = 2-3 years
Good Prospects, High School = 3-4 years

The expectation would be for Walker Jenkins to be in A+ ball by the end of the year.
2023 = Rookie/A-
2024 = A- / A+
2025 = A+ / AA
2026 = AAA / MLB
That is the path of expectations, barring injury, if Walker Jenkins is really an good MLB player in the making. Things can go sideways for a year, but not longer than that before expectations are cooled significantly.

Jenkins obviously missed a ton of time at the beginning of the season with the hammy, but when he returned, he had no power whatsoever. Even now, his ISO remains poor. He's currently "better than average" in his second go 'round of Low A. Still only 158 PA in Ft Myers, but it's becoming a concern to me.

Jenkins recently moved up prospect lists because of the hype machine. It's certainly not from his production. His high ranking HS peers drafted after him are performing as good or better as well.

*Blake Mitchell went #8, and everybody should know the Twins need catching depth badly. 
In 310 plate appearances in Low A, .261/.400/.474 OPS .874 wRC+ 156. 
*Nobel Meyer went #10 and he's in A+ ball.
College guys available at Jenkins' spot
**Jacob Wilson #6 (AAA) - .446/.486/.738 OPS 1.224 wRC+ 202
**Rhett Lowder #7 (AA) - 6.52 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
**Chase Dollander #8 (A+) - 2.83 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 14.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9
**Nolan Schuanel #11 (MLB) - .240/.317/.353 OPS .670 wRC+ 91. Literally played 20 games in the minors and then was called up to the big show.

I don't completely disagree on the timelines you have for elite prospect status, but I would add that progression is not linear.  He could be stuck at A ball for two years figure things out and just like Schuanel be ready for MLB in one year. He technically only needs to be special at AA for 6 months to a year to prove he is ready. It doesn't have to be a level per year although elite players more often than not do move fast.

Also to your point about injury he was injured early this year so his timeline has already been altered.  Lewis is a great example that timelines can change due to injury.  He had one poor year with the bat. Then got injured and lot's of outlets  kept dropping him down boards from then on.  It took a long time and very little playing time in between but he still proved to be an elite player.

With the slow start to the year and maybe still concern about the hammy mentally and or physically I could see that impacting his power and when you look at the numbers that is something that is keeping his OPS down.

He still has another three months to give us data on where he is at and we likely need to see him start a season healthy before getting too concerned IMO.

[BH67]

32 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Elite prospects almost always move through systems fast, barring serious injury. If your elite prospect is languishing around, it's a pretty good sign they're not actually elite after all.
 

First-year records as an NFL head coach:

Bud Grant, 3-8-3

Bill Walsh, 2-14

Chuck Noll, 1-13

Tom Landry, 0-11-1

They never amounted to anything.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

He crushed in A ball last year.  Right now contact just a tad off,  but OBP exploding to almost .400,  even with a week start. Watch the bat start to crush again shortly.   He still looks like an elite prospect.   No need to rush him,  but if dominating a level for a month or two move him up.  If he is crushing AA by age 20 to 21 really got something there.  

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

He crushed in A ball last year.  Right now contact just a tad off,  but OBP exploding to almost .400,  even with a week start. Watch the bat start to crush again shortly.   He still looks like an elite prospect.   No need to rush him,  but if dominating a level for a month or two move him up.  If he is crushing AA by age 20 to 21 really got something there.  

He'd have to be in AA next year to do that.... I'm confident he's elite, I'm suggesting this idea we should slow roll his progress is inconsistent with that. 

[Linus]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He'd have to be in AA next year to do that.... I'm confident he's elite, I'm suggesting this idea we should slow roll his progress is inconsistent with that. 

If you are referring to my post I was saying to slow the roll on fans expectations. The Twins should move him as fast as is warranted by his play. 

[mikelink45]

I can't slow down (it feels like its Almost Monday) and I don't want to. He is exciting and the biggest prospect we have.  If not for injuries I would have seen him AA this year and AAA/MLB next year.

Its alright to be excited about prospects.  Its also alright be be concerned about injuries.  Until something bad happens again I think the train is coming into the station and the ride should be fun. 

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

6 hours ago, Linus said:

I’ll say this again - people need to slow the roll with all prospects. He’s 19 and in low A. There is a whole lotta baseball to be played before he is even close to the bigs. And of course he may not turn out to be the star everyone is counting on. Expectations get so high for some of these guys that it’s almost impossible for them to meet them. I think this is why some people get so down on Buck. Rarely do prospects hit their best possible outcome. 

Walker Jenkins has higher expectations, I GUARANTEE,  than anybody on Twins Daily. You simply do not get to that level without setting them to almost unreachable heights. I know from experience. 

[Linus]

9 minutes ago, Ghost of Kirby Puckett said:

Walker Jenkins has higher expectations, I GUARANTEE,  than anybody on Twins Daily. You simply do not get to that level without setting them to almost unreachable heights. I know from experience. 

Yea well that wasn’t even close to the point I made. 

[Fatbat]

He has only lost 60-90 games of development. Considering he is/was a couple years more advanced than even some college juniors,  he can still make the show in Aug of ‘25 if, The twins NEED a CF because of injuries. Or, he continues to develop faster than a normal human and shows that he is ready.  I would bet that we see him in St.Paul/MPLS in ‘25.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He'd have to be in AA next year to do that.... I'm confident he's elite, I'm suggesting this idea we should slow roll his progress is inconsistent with that. 

My guess is on pretty reasonable path to AA,  .400 OBP in A ball right now,  if contact improves a bit is in high A by end of season.  Very reasonable path,  if he doesn't but still looks solid nothing wrong with that either,  In either case looks very very good.  very few players at his age can make A ball to either doing very well or beginning to dominate.  

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

He crushed in A ball last year.  Right now contact just a tad off,  but OBP exploding to almost .400,  even with a week start. Watch the bat start to crush again shortly.   He still looks like an elite prospect.   No need to rush him,  but if dominating a level for a month or two move him up.  If he is crushing AA by age 20 to 21 really got something there.  

He had 50 PA last year. Not enough to determine anything. When guys repeat a level and perform significantly worse in a larger sample size, it's a bad sign. 

I'm not saying Walker Jenkins is cooked. That'd be lunacy. He's more than holding his own in Low-A, and he has trended upward quite a bit lately. There's still plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Especially considering he's only in Low-A where the Twins coaches and staff are going to be working on things with him.

The main article is just over the top. Jenkins hasn't produced at a level where the Twins should be jumping for joy they drafted him instead of somebody else. Lot's of anticipation in terms of what he can become, but like I said, reason to adjust the hype meter off 11.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

My guess is on pretty reasonable path to AA,  .400 OBP in A ball right now,  if contact improves a bit is in high A by end of season.  Very reasonable path,  if he doesn't but still looks solid nothing wrong with that either,  In either case looks very very good.  very few players at his age can make A ball to either doing very well or beginning to dominate.  

Just basically all the ones which were drafted ahead of him and the next 5 behind him... Jenkins was a #5 overall pick with a $7.1MM signing bonus (what Willi Castro will make next year in his final year of arbitration). That comes with some lofty baseline expectations. He's not some round 20 guy you expect needs a ton of adjustment and polish to perform in the low minors.

[SwainZag]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Just basically all the ones which were drafted ahead of him and the next 5 behind him... Jenkins was a #5 overall pick with a $7.1MM signing bonus (what Willi Castro will make next year in his final year of arbitration). That comes with some lofty baseline expectations. He's not some round 20 guy you expect needs a ton of adjustment and polish to perform in the low minors.

Everyone drafted ahead of him not named Max Clark, are 3-4 years older than him.  Comparing him with college players at this point is all but pointless. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

Everyone drafted ahead of him not named Max Clark, are 3-4 years older than him.  Comparing him with college players at this point is all but pointless. 

Yeah, you mean like I spelled out in my earlier post? How about comparing him to the guys drafted after him, which makes more sense. I conveniently laid those out for you as well.

[TopGunn#22]

Walker Jenkins is talented and I believe he will continue to get better and better.  His lack of power so far this year is a slight concern.  All he needs is a 2-week power tear and any concern washes down the drain.

There is no question in my mind that 2025 will be the year for E-Rod.  He should probably be in St. Paul sometime soon and will probably be back in St. Paul to begin 2025, but E-Rod will be up and playing regularly for the Twins by June of next year and might just get a cup of coffee this year.

Walker Jenkins is a talent that the Twins FO will not be able to contain.  He's 6:5 225 pounds.  The power will come.  It won't be immediate but soon enough, he will be a Twin.  The thought of Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, E-Rod and Walker Jenkins with a host of other highly thought of Twins prospects (Miranda, Julien, Wallner, even Larnach and Kirilloff) is a feeling similar to the T-Wolves situation where you have Ant, KAT, Rudy and McDaniels with Dillingham and Shannon, maybe throw in a Leonard Miller/Luke Garza?  it's an exciting NOW as well as an exciting future.  

[Bodie]

Can shorten this article a lot...

He has done very little (quantity-wise), but has done it extremely well (quality-wise).

Like many prospects, and seemingly all Twins prospects, health is the key.

Dude is undoubtedly a stud ball player.  If he can stay healthy for the long haul he should be in Minneapolis in '26 for good.  Earlier is possible, but unlikely. 

A first look next season is a real possibility, more likely late in the season.  He does need good health for that to happen, and to get his body used to playing at a pro level 5-6 days a week over a 5+ month season. 

He has the skills, but until he shows the ability (or endurance) to put together a full season I can't get overly excited (and he is the most exciting prospect since Buxton or Sano with their unlimited upsides as young prospects).  If he's healthy, the sky is the limit.  If not, well.... maybe we have Rocco Baldelli (the player version).