What Has Walker Jenkins Done in One Year With the Minnesota Twins?

I like the underlying numbers for walk and K rate.  I don't know what kind of contact he is making, but most of the times I have watched it has been weak contact I believe.  Maybe someone can give us more info on that?  If it is mainly weak contact then he needs to have the bat in better position to hit breaking balls.

The approach is sound and that foundation is very important for future success.  Now he needs to figure out how to better hit breaking stuff and off speed pitches.  I think when he gains more skill there he will take off.  No reason to be overly discouraged right now.  If he was striking out a ton and chasing and not walking that would be concerning.  He's not doing that.  Let's give the kid a full year and see how he does.  I still think he ends up a monster bat.  It might just take more time than the crazy Holiday scenario.

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I’ll say this again - people need to slow the roll with all prospects. He’s 19 and in low A. There is a whole lotta baseball to be played before he is even close to the bigs. And of course he may not turn out to be the star everyone is counting on. Expectations get so high for some of these guys that it’s almost impossible for them to meet them. I think this is why some people get so down on Buck. Rarely do prospects hit their best possible outcome. 

Elite prospects almost always move through systems fast, barring serious injury. If your elite prospect is languishing around, it's a pretty good sign they're not actually elite after all.

Expected time to MLB?
Elite Prospects, College = 1-2 years
Elite Prospects,  High School = 2-3 years <--- Walker Jenkins
Good Prospects, College = 2-3 years
Good Prospects, High School = 3-4 years

The expectation would be for Walker Jenkins to be in A+ ball by the end of the year.
2023 = Rookie/A-
2024 = A- / A+
2025 = A+ / AA
2026 = AAA / MLB
That is the path of expectations, barring injury, if Walker Jenkins is really an good MLB player in the making. Things can go sideways for a year, but not longer than that before expectations are cooled significantly.

Jenkins obviously missed a ton of time at the beginning of the season with the hammy, but when he returned, he had no power whatsoever. Even now, his ISO remains poor. He's currently "better than average" in his second go 'round of Low A. Still only 158 PA in Ft Myers, but it's becoming a concern to me.

Jenkins recently moved up prospect lists because of the hype machine. It's certainly not from his production. His high ranking HS peers drafted after him are performing as good or better as well.

*Blake Mitchell went #8, and everybody should know the Twins need catching depth badly. 
In 310 plate appearances in Low A, .261/.400/.474 OPS .874 wRC+ 156. 
*Nobel Meyer went #10 and he's in A+ ball.
College guys available at Jenkins' spot
**Jacob Wilson #6 (AAA) - .446/.486/.738 OPS 1.224 wRC+ 202
**Rhett Lowder #7 (AA) - 6.52 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
**Chase Dollander #8 (A+) - 2.83 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 14.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9
**Nolan Schuanel #11 (MLB) - .240/.317/.353 OPS .670 wRC+ 91. Literally played 20 games in the minors and then was called up to the big show.

21 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Elite prospects almost always move through systems fast, barring serious injury. If your elite prospect is languishing around, it's a pretty good sign they're not actually elite after all.

Expected time to MLB?
Elite Prospects, College = 1-2 years
Elite Prospects,  High School = 2-3 years <--- Walker Jenkins
Good Prospects, College = 2-3 years
Good Prospects, High School = 3-4 years

The expectation would be for Walker Jenkins to be in A+ ball by the end of the year.
2023 = Rookie/A-
2024 = A- / A+
2025 = A+ / AA
2026 = AAA / MLB
That is the path of expectations, barring injury, if Walker Jenkins is really an good MLB player in the making. Things can go sideways for a year, but not longer than that before expectations are cooled significantly.

Jenkins obviously missed a ton of time at the beginning of the season with the hammy, but when he returned, he had no power whatsoever. Even now, his ISO remains poor. He's currently "better than average" in his second go 'round of Low A. Still only 158 PA in Ft Myers, but it's becoming a concern to me.

Jenkins recently moved up prospect lists because of the hype machine. It's certainly not from his production. His high ranking HS peers drafted after him are performing as good or better as well.

*Blake Mitchell went #8, and everybody should know the Twins need catching depth badly. 
In 310 plate appearances in Low A, .261/.400/.474 OPS .874 wRC+ 156. 
*Nobel Meyer went #10 and he's in A+ ball.
College guys available at Jenkins' spot
**Jacob Wilson #6 (AAA) - .446/.486/.738 OPS 1.224 wRC+ 202
**Rhett Lowder #7 (AA) - 6.52 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
**Chase Dollander #8 (A+) - 2.83 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 14.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9
**Nolan Schuanel #11 (MLB) - .240/.317/.353 OPS .670 wRC+ 91. Literally played 20 games in the minors and then was called up to the big show.

I don't completely disagree on the timelines you have for elite prospect status, but I would add that progression is not linear.  He could be stuck at A ball for two years figure things out and just like Schuanel be ready for MLB in one year. He technically only needs to be special at AA for 6 months to a year to prove he is ready. It doesn't have to be a level per year although elite players more often than not do move fast.

Also to your point about injury he was injured early this year so his timeline has already been altered.  Lewis is a great example that timelines can change due to injury.  He had one poor year with the bat. Then got injured and lot's of outlets  kept dropping him down boards from then on.  It took a long time and very little playing time in between but he still proved to be an elite player.

With the slow start to the year and maybe still concern about the hammy mentally and or physically I could see that impacting his power and when you look at the numbers that is something that is keeping his OPS down.

He still has another three months to give us data on where he is at and we likely need to see him start a season healthy before getting too concerned IMO.

6 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

He crushed in A ball last year.  Right now contact just a tad off,  but OBP exploding to almost .400,  even with a week start. Watch the bat start to crush again shortly.   He still looks like an elite prospect.   No need to rush him,  but if dominating a level for a month or two move him up.  If he is crushing AA by age 20 to 21 really got something there.  

He had 50 PA last year. Not enough to determine anything. When guys repeat a level and perform significantly worse in a larger sample size, it's a bad sign. 

I'm not saying Walker Jenkins is cooked. That'd be lunacy. He's more than holding his own in Low-A, and he has trended upward quite a bit lately. There's still plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Especially considering he's only in Low-A where the Twins coaches and staff are going to be working on things with him.

The main article is just over the top. Jenkins hasn't produced at a level where the Twins should be jumping for joy they drafted him instead of somebody else. Lot's of anticipation in terms of what he can become, but like I said, reason to adjust the hype meter off 11.

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

My guess is on pretty reasonable path to AA,  .400 OBP in A ball right now,  if contact improves a bit is in high A by end of season.  Very reasonable path,  if he doesn't but still looks solid nothing wrong with that either,  In either case looks very very good.  very few players at his age can make A ball to either doing very well or beginning to dominate.  

Just basically all the ones which were drafted ahead of him and the next 5 behind him... Jenkins was a #5 overall pick with a $7.1MM signing bonus (what Willi Castro will make next year in his final year of arbitration). That comes with some lofty baseline expectations. He's not some round 20 guy you expect needs a ton of adjustment and polish to perform in the low minors.

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

Everyone drafted ahead of him not named Max Clark, are 3-4 years older than him.  Comparing him with college players at this point is all but pointless. 

Yeah, you mean like I spelled out in my earlier post? How about comparing him to the guys drafted after him, which makes more sense. I conveniently laid those out for you as well.