Will the Twins Trade for a Mercenary?

[Greggory Masterson]

The Twins have appeared hesitant to trade for players on expiring contracts under the management of Derek Falvey. However, they may be in a perfect position to break that apparent rule this July.

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

One of the more consistent patterns during the Derek Falvey regime has been a reluctance to spend prospect capital on short-term solutions. The idea is solid—it can be risky to trade away over a half-decade of a prospect’s career for just a few months of a veteran’s services. It becomes even more risky if two, three, or even four prospects are leaving the organization.

As such, many of the players the Twins have acquired with a year or less of team control remaining have been lower-end filler like Sandy León, Dylan Floro, or Jaime Garcia. Michael Fulmer and Sergio Romo were setup men acquired at the deadline with only a few months left on their contracts. Gary Sánchez, Anthony DeSclafani, and Michael A. Taylor were acquired to fill temporary holes at catcher/DH, starting pitcher, and center field, respectively, with a full season of control ahead.

That’s it. Really. Those are all the expiring contracts the Twins have brought on since 2016. Every other trade that they’ve made has been for someone with multiple years of control, like Kenta Maeda, Pablo López, or Jake Odorizzi. Even players like Sam Dyson and Gio Urshela, who only played one year as a Twin, had multiple years of theoretical team control when they were acquired. Manuel Margot, for example, has an option for 2025, albeit one almost sure to be declined.

The Twins’ emphasis on sustained success—not selling out for a single year, even at a juncture when another team might—has been consistent, but 2024 presents a situation that might make acquiring a short-term piece worthwhile. Not only is the team working with a high floor, but they also have prospect capital and are facing payroll constraints next year.

First, the Twins do not have a glaring need. This is not to say they don’t need another playoff arm or something along those lines; it’s that there are pieces in place already that are at least competent. A player in the 2019 Sergio Romo or 2023 Michael A. Taylor range doesn’t really move the needle. A player who moves quality bats down in the lineup or quality arms down in the rotation or bullpen would be the standard to meet to compel a trade.

Those types of players, for multiple years, are expensive. That might not be a gambit that the Twins are interested in, especially with the number of quality options already on or near the big-league team. There might be space in the outfield in future years, but Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Matt Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Willi Castro, and Alex Kirilloff are options there. After Carlos Santana departs, Edouard Julien, José Miranda and/or Kirilloff could be options. The starting rotation is already filled with names for next year, and additional options like Louie Varland, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews provide it with depth.

Some of those names aren’t world-beaters, but there’s not an abject feeling of dread or an urgent need around those positions in the near future. Given that, the need for long-term talent is diminished, and the bar for an acquisition is high: a recipe for a high-end expiring contract.

That point works in another direction—it lowers the need to hold onto prospects. If there were no other options to replace Max Kepler in 2025, someone like Wallner would be less expendable. Someone a little further down the system and a few years younger would also be less expendable. But right now, the Twins have seven players who have landed on some top-100 prospect list—Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, Rodriguez, Festa, Matthews, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Luke Keaschall—and there are exciting lower-tier prospects providing an exciting pool of potential trade chips, because they aren't absolutely necessary for the team's future.

Combining those points, the Twins have a high bar to clear, less need to bring in a core building block, and prospect capital to make it happen. Those are theoretical and organizational reasons that can make them more likely to splurge on a team-altering expiring contract. However, there’s a pragmatic reason above all of this: payroll.

Back in the offseason, Peter Labuza wrote a great story outlining the Twins’ impending payroll increase in 2025. Key players will see bumps in their contracts and reach or continue arbitration while a few notable veteran contracts expire. The projected payroll is already greater for 2025 than now, and there are no indications that spending will rise to 2023 levels.

When bringing on new contracts in trade, that might be an issue. Although contracts are prorated, and the team would only need to take on the player’s remaining salary for 2024, they would still be on the hook for the player’s future salary in 2025 and beyond. A team may even be talked into retaining some of that salary for 2024, but good luck next year.

Take someone like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a common trade target among fans. Guerrero is making approximately $20 million this season. If he were traded on Jul. 31, his new team would be responsible for about $7 million. The Blue Jays could cover some of the money, for the right prospect, leaving the Twins owing $3 million, which might be palatable for ownership.

However, in arbitration ahead of 2025, Guerrero might receive $24 million, or even more. The Twins would either have to pay him that, trade him again, or non-tender him in the offseason, making him a free agent (and Toronto wouldn’t give Falvey a discount for not employing him in 2025). There’s no winning there, given ownership’s payroll constraints.

So, an uncharacteristic rental makes all the sense in the world this season, and the Twins should try to take advantage of a mercenary who can raise the floor and ceiling of this 2024 team without worrying about the future. It increases the risk of a trade backfiring, but it might be the best move.

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[LA Vikes Fan]

I see the logic, but don't entirely agree because retals tend to be expensive. Still, who is said mercenary? The only guy that would make any sense to me is Tanner Scott of the Marlins. A great LH closer/late inning guy would really help us. But boy will he be expensive. May cost one of the 7 top 100 guys or, if not, 2 of the best right after those 7, probably including Luke Keaschall.

I just don't see any other rentals. I looked at the 92 trade targets in the Athletic and didn't see any rental fit on the hitting side. The only guys are DH types like JD Martinez and Christian Walker. We don't need that and it would take away ABs from Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, and Martin without improving the team. Bad call. Maybe Danny Jansen could help but Toronto would have to take on the Vasquez contract. Doesn't seem likely. 

On the starting pitcher front, the only decent rental guys out there are Flaherty, Kikuchi, and maybe Severino. Not sure Detroit would trade us Flaherty and I don't want to send an in-division rival a possible long term piece for 2 months of a guy who wasn't very good in 2020, 2022, or 2023. Kikuchi is having a lousy year in 2024 and stunk in 2022, rebounding to an ok but not great 2023.  Severino is a huge injury risk and had an awful 2023. Just don't see it. 

The better move IF we are going to trade real prospects is to get someone controllable and affordable if we can. Three logical choices are Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, or Taylor Ward of the Angels. Anderson has two years left at 13m a year, so he's a little less than 20m for the rest of 2024 and all of 2025.  Would be a solid #3 or very good #4 starter. Rengifo is killing it this year (.319/.362/.448 (.810)) after a good 2023 (.783 OPS,) and has a year left of arbitration.  Ward has a .762 OPS this year after an .833 in 2022 and .756 in 2023, and is a 20 plus homer guy controllable in arbitration through 2026. The Angels need younger, controllable players. I would like to see the Twins think about trading guys like Schobel, Cory Lewis, Keirsey, Mathews, De Andrade, or maybe even Julien for Anderson and/or Rengifo. The rentals? Not much there other than Scott IMHO.  

[JD-TWINS]

How about a MERCENARY, and not a “nice value trade”, per the premise?

To: Either team……some guy like Severino or Kiersey …..maybe add an A ball kid…..FOR:

1) Aroldis Chapman

OR

2) Matt Moore

PEN: Staumont - Alcala - Varland - Paddack - Stewart - (Chapman or Moore) - Jax - Duran in October!!!!

[jorgenswest]

The extra year or two of service time in a trade is very expensive. It would have taken more than twice the prospect value to get Burnes a year earlier. Going after rentals repeatedly at the deadline can be a much more efficient use of assets to acquire premium talent.

[weitz41]

The problem is there isn't that glaring need. I expect a trade or two. But not for anyone we are focused on or in high demand. Someone to deepens the BP or add to the bench/platoon depending on injuries...looking at you Royce....Buck...but otherwise minimal adds with A or less prospects or 40 man borderline guys.

[strumdatjag]

The Twins could sign a former Cy Young Award winner, with two good seasons in Japan and this year a stellar season in Mexico, setting the league strike-out record.   They would not have to give up anything and MLB may be spared from litigating a nasty lawsuit.  
He has been rumored to be a cancer in the clubhouse, and is disliked so much by some on TD that I didn’t even mention his name.  But he would instantly improve the pitching on this team. 

[RpR]

Will the Twins Trade for a Mercenary?

They are all Mercenaries.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Will the Twins Trade for a Mercenary?

They are all Mercenaries.

I mean...but in the spirit of the question.  The only non-mercenary position they would be likely to aquire is a high level controllable starting pitcher.  All others get in line behind the kids. 

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

The Twins could sign a former Cy Young Award winner, with two good seasons in Japan and this year a stellar season in Mexico, setting the league strike-out record.   They would not have to give up anything and MLB may be spared from litigating a nasty lawsuit.  
He has been rumored to be a cancer in the clubhouse, and is disliked so much by some on TD that I didn’t even mention his name.  But he would instantly improve the pitching on this team. 

Trevor Bauer is only doing the minimum you would expect in the Mexican jumping bean league.

Remember, Falvey knows him well. Don't hold your breath.

[$tryf4Life]

7 hours ago, weitz41 said:

The problem is there isn't that glaring need. I expect a trade or two. But not for anyone we are focused on or in high demand. Someone to deepens the BP or add to the bench/platoon depending on injuries...looking at you Royce....Buck...but otherwise minimal adds with A or less prospects or 40 man borderline guys.

I believe if we tossed this team into a championship series or a World Series we would really wish for one more elite bullpen arm (that’s not on the injured list) and/or someone we could trust to hand the ball to in a game 3. Our record in the last 5-6 one run games isn’t all that good. Those seem like obvious areas and the fact that they also existed in the offseason checks the glaring box for me. 

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

The Twins could sign a former Cy Young Award winner, with two good seasons in Japan and this year a stellar season in Mexico, setting the league strike-out record.   They would not have to give up anything and MLB may be spared from litigating a nasty lawsuit.  
He has been rumored to be a cancer in the clubhouse, and is disliked so much by some on TD that I didn’t even mention his name.  But he would instantly improve the pitching on this team. 

The team in Japan did not want him back?

[Doctor Wu]

14 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

How about a MERCENARY, and not a “nice value trade”, per the premise?

To: Either team……some guy like Severino or Kiersey …..maybe add an A ball kid…..FOR:

1) Aroldis Chapman

OR

2) Matt Moore

PEN: Staumont - Alcala - Varland - Paddack - Stewart - (Chapman or Moore) - Jax - Duran in October!!!!

I wouldn't mind adding either one of those arms, just as long as we aren't giving up too much for them. Interesting trade ideas. 

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, $tryf4Life said:

I believe if we tossed this team into a championship series or a World Series we would really wish for one more elite bullpen arm (that’s not on the injured list) and/or someone we could trust to hand the ball to in a game 3. Our record in the last 5-6 one run games isn’t all that good. Those seem like obvious areas and the fact that they also existed in the offseason checks the glaring box for me. 

How many “elite” relievers are there? Who are these guys? Stewart is elite - nobody wanted him…….Staumont, while not elite, hasn’t allowed a run and nobody was pushing hard to sign him. IMO, Varland & Paddack back to the Pen over the last 3 weeks & into October works.

Lewis’ throwing error and Lewis getting thrown out in 10th at 3B on a fly ball to CF essentially created 2 of those 5 losses.

Always looking for the new guy or the better guy…,fun to consider but there are no perfect Teams.

[strumdatjag]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

The team in Japan did not want him back?

He played two years, so after one year he was brought back. 

[strumdatjag]

11 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Trevor Bauer is only doing the minimum you would expect in the Mexican jumping bean league.

Remember, Falvey knows him well. Don't hold your breath.

He set the record for strike-outs in that league.  Sounds pretty maximum to me.  

[strumdatjag]

John Cale (after his stint inthe Velvet Underground) wrote a song about mercenaries being paid a meager wage: 

Which is just about enough to make them wanna kill for you.

But not enough to make them wanna die for you!

Fortunately, even the minimum MLB salary would not be a “meager wage”. 
So, I have no problem with the Twins obtaining the right mercenary  

 

[madtowntwin]

The Mercenary route is one method I guess...Personally, I've been eying Quantrill from the Rockies. I think you could add his talent to the Twins and simultaneously ease some roster congestion with minimal effect to farm system talent. You could then strengthen the bullpen pool by adding one of (or both) the Varland-Paddack mix as both have seemingly hit the wall as starters. Just my thoughts...Lastly a parting question: Is the close game late inning pinch run base stealing threat presently on the Twin's roster?? My two cents for the inflationary dollar....Win Twins!!

[LambchoP]

Our offense is fine, what we need is pitching. A playoff caliber starter with at least another year of control. Not a lot of those available, and the few there are, are going to be very expensive. We could also use some bullpen help. Someone like Aroldis Chapman to replace Theilbar should be had pretty cheap. Then maybe another leverage set up type arm with another year or two of control would be great. I just don't see the twins doing much this year. Too gun shy after the few horrible deadline trades last few years...

[old nurse]

39 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

He played two years, so after one year he was brought back. 

But not a third, year, nor did any other JPL team sign him.. yup he set a record for strikeouts in the Mexican league. That is as significant as Joey Gallo not striking out in t ball 

[bean5302]

I'd suggest an end to the Trevor Bauer discussion in the thread. People are almost exclusively divided into two highly passionate camps so it's just going to devolve into a thread war.

I think the Twins do have a glaring and obvious need when it comes to playoff viability. That's an ace. They don't have one. They need one if they're planning to advance significantly in the playoffs.

[FilthyMogwai]

18 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

The Twins could sign a former Cy Young Award winner, with two good seasons in Japan and this year a stellar season in Mexico, setting the league strike-out record.   They would not have to give up anything and MLB may be spared from litigating a nasty lawsuit.  
He has been rumored to be a cancer in the clubhouse, and is disliked so much by some on TD that I didn’t even mention his name.  But he would instantly improve the pitching on this team. 

100% and the hate for Bauer is absolutely silly.

[PatPfund]

The best way to improve the team at the deadline is to sell off 2 of the 3 offseason additions (Farmer, Margot, and Santana), because the replacements (Lee, Martin, and Miranda) are flat-out better.

The clear biggest need is in the rotation, but I don't see that happening now (we should have signed Lorenzen when he was cheap, but that ship has sailed); the best addition is likely a solid arm for the 'pen (and just hope the rotation doesn't fall apart).

[TopGunn#22]

I have been forbidden to mention the former Cy Young pitcher who is currently  dominating the Mexican League on pain of suspension, so I will not mention him.  However, I will point out that while he remains a divisive character, he is precisely what the Twins need. 

An Ace level SP who could be had at the league minimum with affordable incentives if he pitches well.  From the Twins standpoint, he checks all the boxes.  It couldn't be more teed up.  I would wager that if he was outstanding in his first 5 starts or so he could be signed to an affordable 2-year contract for 2025 & 2026.  

For some reason, we can't seem to have a civil discussion about what he could bring to a Twins rotation. Much like politics today, a civil discussion does not seem possible.  That disappoints me.  I like politics and the interesting discussion/debates of various policies.  Nowadays that is discouraged or flat out forbidden.   

I understand and accept that discussion of said pitcher is discouraged so this will be my only comment unless the moderators decide we can handle any future discussions in an acceptable manner.  But from a purely BASEBALL standpoint, the Mexican League guy would look pretty darn good as our #3 SP.  

[strumdatjag]

20 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'd suggest an end to the Trevor Bauer discussion in the thread. People are almost exclusively divided into two highly passionate camps so it's just going to devolve into a thread war.

I think the Twins do have a glaring and obvious need when it comes to playoff viability. That's an ace. They don't have one. They need one if they're planning to advance significantly in the playoffs.

I only see one camp that’s passionate.  
One camp says that the person I have still not given a name is available, likely to be a cheap contract (Twins don’t want to spend too much this year). has arguably put his troubles behind him while possibly maintaining an elite skill level, and therefore should be part of the “Mercenary” conversation.  The other camp is the passionate camp:that detests the guy, and wants to shut down all conversation about him.