Four AL Teams (and Six Players) the Twins Should Watch As the Trade Deadline Approaches

[Cody Christie]

Multiple powerhouse teams in the American League have failed to live up to expectations. What players could be available at the trade deadline as these perennial contenders switch from buyers to sellers?

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Each of the four teams below was in the playoffs last season, with two of the teams facing off in the ALCS. Unfortunately for these fan bases, things haven’t played out as expected in 2024, putting the front offices in a challenging situation. Should they be buyers and hope for a second-half surge into a Wild Card spot? Or is it time to build for the future and trade away some big-league assets? There is no perfect path, and each team has until next month to decide how the trade deadline will play out. 

Toronto Blue Jays (35-39 record, 4.3% to make the postseason)
Current Situation: The Blue Jays are 15 games behind the Yankees for first place in the AL East, so a Wild Card spot is their only chance of making the playoffs. Currently, Toronto is below .500 and sits 5.5 games behind Kansas City for the final playoff spot. It seemed like the Blue Jays were in the middle of a strong winning window with their current core pieces, and that’s how the front office has treated the team in recent years. However, they have stalled and watched other AL East teams pass them in the process.

Players to Watch: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be one of the top names shopped at the 2024 trade deadline. He is making $19.9 million this season and has one year remaining of arbitration eligibility. He has a 130 OPS+ for his career, and has made three straight All-Star appearances. Adding a slugger of Guerrero’s caliber can upgrade any contender’s lineup. Toronto can keep him for one more year, or try to cash in while his value is higher. 

Yusei Kikuchi is another intriguing name to watch. He is in the final year of his three-year, $36-million deal. Over the last two seasons, he has been one of the AL’s most consistent starters, with a 3.80 ERA, a 109 ERA+, and 9.5 K/9. The Twins have seen some inconsistencies with their starting rotation, and Kikuchi could add much-needed depth. 

Tampa Bay Rays (36-39 record, 0.2% to make the postseason)
Current Situation: Tampa Bay has been the poster child for how organizations can be successful on a small budget. Unfortunately, some of their luck has run out this season, with their pitching underperforming and (until recently) their power bats slumbering. The Rays sit at the bottom of the AL East and are 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot, with three teams ahead of them. Over the next month, the Rays might be able to battle back into contention, but it seems likely that the club will be sellers in July. 

Players to Watch: Many contending teams want to add reliable relievers for the stretch run, and the Rays are known for their ability to get the most out of the bullpen. Garret Cleavinger, a left-handed reliever, is a name teams should be calling about. He has the highest strikeout rate in the Rays bullpen, and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time next season. Minnesota has had Steven Okert step into the bullpen’s number-one lefty role, but Caleb Thielbar has struggled to start the year. Adding Cleavinger will boost a contending team for some of the tough lefty hitters heading to October.

Houston Astros (35-40 record, 17.1% to make the postseason)
Current Situation: The Astros have been a junior-circuit powerhouse for the last decade, with seven straight appearances in the ALCS, four AL pennants and two World Series titles. Every dynasty must end, though, and the team’s slow start will make it hard to recover in 2024. Houston is just half a game ahead of Texas for second place in the AL West, and 8.5 games behind Seattle. The Wild Card race is a little closer (6.5 games back), but the focus needs to be on getting to .500 before worrying about a playoff spot. 

Player to Watch: The Twins traded Ryan Pressly to the Astros in 2018 for Jorge Alcalá and Gilberto Celestino. He quickly became one of the game’s best late-inning relievers as the Astros had him focus on more regular usage of his breaking pitches, especially his curveball. His 2024 performance hasn’t matched his career track record, though, as he has struggled with control, including a league-high six wild pitches. He has a $14 million vesting option for 2025 that becomes guaranteed if he reaches 50 appearances this season. Houston might want to dump his contract, and the Twins can use his playoff experience if he gets back on track. 

Texas Rangers (34-40 record, 3.0% to make the postseason)
Current Situation: Like the Astros, the Rangers sit well below .500 and are clinging to small playoff odds. Last season, Texas struggled at the end of the regular season but qualified for the playoffs and ended up with the World Series title. The Rangers had a clear plan for this season, which was to survive the first half while waiting for their top pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle) to return from injury in the second half. It seemed like a good idea on paper, but they have dug themselves a hole where it may be impossible to escape. 

Players to Watch: Max Scherzer is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and a free agent at season’s end. There are only so many bullets left in his arm after 15 years at the big-league level. He wants to win in October, and his best chance of doing that this season is outside of Texas. Scherzer would still be owed over $12 million for the season’s final two months, and the Twins likely don’t have that kind of payroll space. He must prove that he’s healthy over the next month, and the teams must find a way to make the money work.

In the bullpen, Kirby Yates has been outstanding, while taking over the closer’s role for the Rangers. He’s posted a 1.07 ERA, with a 0.95 WHIP and a 33.3 K%. Yates is on a one-year deal, so he will likely be one of the hottest trade commodities before the end of July. Will the Twins pay a high cost for a reliever on an expiring contract?

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Which player discussed above is the best fit for the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Trov]

Personally, at this point not sure why people are high on Vlad Jr.  I get he has history of doing well, and very well could bounce back, but he has been a first half player in his career, he is not a good defender at 1B, and he is costly.  We would most likely bring him back next for more than this year.  

The question would be how much money would Twins get from Jays, and what would we need to give up.  This season Vlad is putting up similar numbers to Santana.  So I ask, why give up prospects, to get an offense guy that is hitting similar to who we have with same level defense? Additionally, if you feel you need the offense upgraded over Santana, we have Miranda to fill in and have poor defense at first.  

Vlad is still very young and may just be a bump in the road, but there is a reason his numbers are not good, compared to career numbers, and there may be underlying injury that take him out for long term second half too.  Overall, Vlad last 2 seasons have been dropping off from his first few seasons. Last year was not terrible, but outside of 2021 and 2022, his career has been just above average offense. 

Vlad has a ton of risk, and think would cost too much in prospects and missed opportunities next year for what it will cost in arb money to bring back.   

[LambchoP]

Vladdy wouldn't be worth the money imo. He's putting up numbers that both Miranda and Santana can match at 1b for us. I'm guessing Miranda will be our starting first baseman next year. I think Kikuchi would be a great get. We have no lefty starters, and with Lopez and Ober struggling and Paddack looking like he might be cooked, Kikuchi could really boost our rotation which is our biggest need. We also could use some relief help. Kirby would be great and I think a leverage lefty would be a boon.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

It must be a slow news cycle.  The amount of "Who should the Twins trade for?" articles being pumped out at this site is incredibly high right now.  Considering the Twins will not make any moves that increase salary or move one of their top 10 prospects, it feels like a lot of wishful thinking...

[Fatbat]

I’d trade for Vlad if I could sign him to a 6yr $100M base contract.  AK and Julien would be the price. They would both likely flourish in Toronto and Vlad could end up being our side of a big pappy type trade scenario. Everyone wins. Miranda and Vlad would be the 1B/DH regulars with Miranda available to fill in at 3b/2b. Lee would be called up to play every day at 2b.  Our offense would be jumpstarted immediately.  Probably 46-50wins after the allstar break.  

[Linus]

The problem with these suggestions is that you can forget about anyone that is making any money. The sidearming right handed in the Rays pen looked tough. Don’t know what his status is though. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

It must be a slow news cycle.  The amount of "Who should the Twins trade for?" articles being pumped out at this site is incredibly high right now.  Considering the Twins will not make any moves that increase salary or move one of their top 10 prospects, it feels like a lot of wishful thinking...

Agree

[DJL44]

I would love Kikuchi if they would take Paddack in return as part of the package.

[Doctor Gast]

Guerrero is all hype. The hype has him as MVP & GG, he never has come close earn that & every year he's going further downhill. Most of these guys are big bucks. So you're dreaming if you think we'd land one of these.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The right trade package for Kikuchi would be a fine thing, given that he's a lefty starter and we don't currently have one of those.  The others are either much too expensive, either in prospect cost or in salary, or not that much of an upgrade from who we have -- or even a combination of those two things.  With many of them, I just don't want to pay for what they may have done in the past.

I do think that all of this trade deadline talk is a little premature, since we haven't even hit July 1 yet.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

It must be a slow news cycle.  The amount of "Who should the Twins trade for?" articles being pumped out at this site is incredibly high right now.  Considering the Twins will not make any moves that increase salary or move one of their top 10 prospects, it feels like a lot of wishful thinking...

I expect the Twins will do both things you're saying they will not do.

[Trov]

6 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I’d trade for Vlad if I could sign him to a 6yr $100M base contract.  AK and Julien would be the price. They would both likely flourish in Toronto and Vlad could end up being our side of a big pappy type trade scenario. Everyone wins. Miranda and Vlad would be the 1B/DH regulars with Miranda available to fill in at 3b/2b. Lee would be called up to play every day at 2b.  Our offense would be jumpstarted immediately.  Probably 46-50wins after the allstar break.  

Why would Vlad sign that deal?  He is making nearly 20 mil this year and will get raise, how arb works next year.  So he would take a pay cut for at least 1 year?  Doubtful.  He would be more like to take his arb year, make over 20 mil, then try to get long term deal and at worse do short term because he is young enough that he could enter FA again around 29 to 30 and seek 6 year deal if he bounces back. 

[JD-TWINS]

Walner & Festa & Gonzales for Berrios.

Berrios is slightly less costly than Lopez. He’s got about 5-6 years left at $17.5M/yr. He’s a pretty comparable pitcher to Lopez IMO. He could be 1a in the rotation.

How much of a rebuild will Toronto be looking at in July? This leaves them some flexibility to work things out with Guerrero or their SS (name?).

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

Why would Vlad sign that deal?  He is making nearly 20 mil this year and will get raise, how arb works next year.  So he would take a pay cut for at least 1 year?  Doubtful.  He would be more like to take his arb year, make over 20 mil, then try to get long term deal and at worse do short term because he is young enough that he could enter FA again around 29 to 30 and seek 6 year deal if he bounces back. 

The 6 yr deal would have incentives in it. It would have to be worth close to 25/30M max per year for him to sign it. I personally like contracts with a base+ incentives. 

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Walner & Festa & Gonzales for Berrios.

Berrios is slightly less costly than Lopez. He’s got about 5-6 years left at $17.5M/yr. He’s a pretty comparable pitcher to Lopez IMO. He could be 1a in the rotation.

How much of a rebuild will Toronto be looking at in July? This leaves them some flexibility to work things out with Guerrero or their SS (name?).

Umm, wut?

Throw in Julien and you have a deal. No? OK, I guess we will do it. Pleasure. Please, please do call again.

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Walner & Festa & Gonzales for Berrios.

Berrios is slightly less costly than Lopez. He’s got about 5-6 years left at $17.5M/yr. He’s a pretty comparable pitcher to Lopez IMO. He could be 1a in the rotation.

How much of a rebuild will Toronto be looking at in July? This leaves them some flexibility to work things out with Guerrero or their SS (name?).

"...About 5-6 years left at $17.5M/yr."

About?? Shouldn't you actually know, before making a proposal like this?

 

For the record: Berrios has 2.5 guaranteed years left, both at $18.7M.

He also has player options in 2027 and 28 at $24.7M each.

Total of 4.5 years left. None at $17.5.

 

 

 

 

 

[DocBauer]

I'd definitely be interested in Kukuchi. He's rotation depth, and a LH arm in the postseason, all the more valuable if Thielbar's issue is mechanical and not father time. Toronto might be more interested in saving some $ in a down year and less in a prospect return.

The Rays don't like to pay arbitration $, or at least not for long, so Cleavinger...with some control...could be of great interest if the return coat isn't too steep.

 

[bean5302]

I think a person would look at Berrios as a #2b/#3 pitcher. Same range as Lopez would normally be viewed, but Berrios' peripherals don't look good this year despite the results so there's certainly reason to be concerned there, though the velocity is still there.

Maybe a 3.5 WAR guy. That values about $28MM per season x 2.5 years = $70MM AFV.
Less the $18.7MM per season over the next two years (if Berrios doesn't tank, he'll opt out) so $37.4MM
That's a net value of like $32.6MM. 
Wallner is probably 25MM on his own.
Festa is probably about 15MM on his own.
Gonzalez is probably about 10MM on his own. 

So 50MM in value in exchange for 37MM is a pretty big overpay for Berrios. Toronto is currently 5 GB of the Wildcard so they'll "probably" be sellers, but no guarantees. It would be interesting to have a workhorse like Berrios back.

[bean5302]

I should note, I'd like the Twins to aim higher than Berrios. Like seemingly every year, the Twins need an ace... It's unusual to be able to acquire a pitcher like that with more than 1.5 years of team control remaining, but pretty unheard of to get them with more than 2.5 years left.

Gray* (StL), Gallen (Ari), Flaherty (Det), Crochet (ChiW), Cease (SD), Snell (SF), Bassitt* (Tor), Berrios* (Tor) would all present some interest to me depending on how they pitch toward the trade deadline, assuming their teams were in the mood to sell, but I'd be more interested in the higher ceiling arms, and some track record would be nice. Guys who could potentially fill the role of staff ace. Gallen, especially, though he'd be expensive.

*Player has Full or Partial NTC.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

12 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I expect the Twins will do both things you're saying they will not do.

I would be interested to hear your reasoning for this considering everything they have done screams otherwise.

[mikelink45]

My answer is none. I keep reading all these who we should trade fors and I keep thinking why do we want to trade what we have when we're doing well and have the potential to fill the positions that we need with skilled players in our minor leagues.   

 

When we have access at a position we should trade from that strength. But I don't like the idea of getting short-term players for long-term prospects. We aren't desperate.

[bean5302]

12 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I would be interested to hear your reasoning for this considering everything they have done screams otherwise.

Just typing something out doesn't make it true.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

52 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Just typing something out doesn't make it true.

So you are being contradictory for the sake of being contradictory with nothing real to back up your opinion.  Got it.

[bean5302]

Add Jordan Montgomery to the list... even though the Diamondbacks are still at 38% to make the playoffs. Last 3 starts for Monty 2.70 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 4.04 xFIP.

Not super excited about Scherzer. He's going to have to "prove it" on the field that he's healthy, especially considering him being a39 and having not pitched a single inning this year, and his injuries which threatened to keep him out of the playoffs last year as well.

[Doctor Wu]

On 6/21/2024 at 10:29 PM, DJL44 said:

I would love Kikuchi if they would take Paddack in return as part of the package.

Kikuchi is about the only one in this bunch that would interest me.