Four AL Teams (and Six Players) the Twins Should Watch As the Trade Deadline Approaches

Each of the four teams below was in the playoffs last season, with two of the teams facing off in the ALCS. Unfortunately for these fan bases, things haven’t played out as expected in 2024, putting the front offices in a challenging situation. Should they be buyers and hope for a second-half surge into a Wild Card spot? Or is it time to build for the future and trade away some big-league assets? There is no perfect path, and each team has until next month to decide how the trade deadline will play out. 

Toronto Blue Jays (35-39 record, 4.3% to make the postseason)
Current Situation: The Blue Jays are 15 games behind the Yankees for first place in the AL East, so a Wild Card spot is their only chance of making the playoffs. Currently, Toronto is below .500 and sits 5.5 games behind Kansas City for the final playoff spot. It seemed like the Blue Jays were in the middle of a strong winning window with their current core pieces, and that’s how the front office has treated the team in recent years. However, they have stalled and watched other AL East teams pass them in the process.

Players to Watch: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be one of the top names shopped at the 2024 trade deadline. He is making $19.9 million this season and has one year remaining of arbitration eligibility. He has a 130 OPS+ for his career, and has made three straight All-Star appearances. Adding a slugger of Guerrero’s caliber can upgrade any contender’s lineup. Toronto can keep him for one more year, or try to cash in while his value is higher. 

Yusei Kikuchi is another intriguing name to watch. He is in the final year of his three-year, $36-million deal. Over the last two seasons, he has been one of the AL’s most consistent starters, with a 3.80 ERA, a 109 ERA+, and 9.5 K/9. The Twins have seen some inconsistencies with their starting rotation, and Kikuchi could add much-needed depth. 

Tampa Bay Rays (36-39 record, 0.2% to make the postseason)
Current Situation: Tampa Bay has been the poster child for how organizations can be successful on a small budget. Unfortunately, some of their luck has run out this season, with their pitching underperforming and (until recently) their power bats slumbering. The Rays sit at the bottom of the AL East and are 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot, with three teams ahead of them. Over the next month, the Rays might be able to battle back into contention, but it seems likely that the club will be sellers in July. 

Players to Watch: Many contending teams want to add reliable relievers for the stretch run, and the Rays are known for their ability to get the most out of the bullpen. Garret Cleavinger, a left-handed reliever, is a name teams should be calling about. He has the highest strikeout rate in the Rays bullpen, and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time next season. Minnesota has had Steven Okert step into the bullpen’s number-one lefty role, but Caleb Thielbar has struggled to start the year. Adding Cleavinger will boost a contending team for some of the tough lefty hitters heading to October.

Houston Astros (35-40 record, 17.1% to make the postseason)
Current Situation: The Astros have been a junior-circuit powerhouse for the last decade, with seven straight appearances in the ALCS, four AL pennants and two World Series titles. Every dynasty must end, though, and the team’s slow start will make it hard to recover in 2024. Houston is just half a game ahead of Texas for second place in the AL West, and 8.5 games behind Seattle. The Wild Card race is a little closer (6.5 games back), but the focus needs to be on getting to .500 before worrying about a playoff spot. 

Player to Watch: The Twins traded Ryan Pressly to the Astros in 2018 for Jorge Alcalá and Gilberto Celestino. He quickly became one of the game’s best late-inning relievers as the Astros had him focus on more regular usage of his breaking pitches, especially his curveball. His 2024 performance hasn’t matched his career track record, though, as he has struggled with control, including a league-high six wild pitches. He has a $14 million vesting option for 2025 that becomes guaranteed if he reaches 50 appearances this season. Houston might want to dump his contract, and the Twins can use his playoff experience if he gets back on track. 

Texas Rangers (34-40 record, 3.0% to make the postseason)
Current Situation: Like the Astros, the Rangers sit well below .500 and are clinging to small playoff odds. Last season, Texas struggled at the end of the regular season but qualified for the playoffs and ended up with the World Series title. The Rangers had a clear plan for this season, which was to survive the first half while waiting for their top pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle) to return from injury in the second half. It seemed like a good idea on paper, but they have dug themselves a hole where it may be impossible to escape. 

Players to Watch: Max Scherzer is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and a free agent at season’s end. There are only so many bullets left in his arm after 15 years at the big-league level. He wants to win in October, and his best chance of doing that this season is outside of Texas. Scherzer would still be owed over $12 million for the season’s final two months, and the Twins likely don’t have that kind of payroll space. He must prove that he’s healthy over the next month, and the teams must find a way to make the money work.

In the bullpen, Kirby Yates has been outstanding, while taking over the closer’s role for the Rangers. He’s posted a 1.07 ERA, with a 0.95 WHIP and a 33.3 K%. Yates is on a one-year deal, so he will likely be one of the hottest trade commodities before the end of July. Will the Twins pay a high cost for a reliever on an expiring contract?

Which player discussed above is the best fit for the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion.