Trevor Larnach is Doing Everything the Twins Expect

[Ted Schwerzler]

As a former first round pick by the Minnesota Twins, we have seen Trevor Larnach work himself in and out of prospect prowess. Promoted early this season and expected to make an immediate contribution, he is doing everything the franchise has hoped for from him.

 

Late in spring training Trevor Larnach was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul. It wasn’t an unexpected result after the year rookie Matt Wallner had in 2023, but it also signified another setback for the career of the 2018 first round pick. When Wallner continued to struggle, as he did most of the spring, it was a newly-healthy Larnach that was promoted directly from a rehab assignment at Single-A Fort Myers.

Coming back to the big leagues the Twins needed to see a few different things from Larnach. Rocco Baldelli has coached him for a while now, and needing his corner outfielder to execute on more than fastballs and punish the baseball with authority both were musts. We have seen him do that only in brief samples during his career, and it has often been surrounded by periods of injury.

Now 19 games into his 2024 season, the first three weeks have to be considered a resounding success when paired with what Minnesota wants to see from him.

The outfielder is batting .328 with an .871 OPS. Three home runs in that brief of a stretch put him on a pace to blow by previous career-high’s, and a .500 slugging percentage is reflective of a player capable of doing damage. While his walk rate isn’t where it has been previously, Larnach is striking out more than 10% less often, and his hard-hit rate is over 50% for the first time in his career.

There is some smoke and mirrors to his production with an out-of-whack BABIP, but Larnach has increased his average exit velocity by more than 4 mph this season. He hasn’t changed a ton with regards to his spray chart, and the Twins have seen him flip solidly-hit liners the opposite way more than a couple of times to start the year. 

Maybe most impressively though, is that all of this has taken place against a career-low 31% fastballs. The book has always been that Larnach will destroy heat but can’t hit breaking pitches. Right now though, he’s seeing the most amount of offspeed he ever has, and he’s producing to a level he also has never done.

Larnach has some room to zone-up and make things work to an even better extent as well. Right now he is chasing a bit more than typical, and he’s swinging at nearly 50% of the pitches he has seen. The contact rates are solid, but if he can be a bit more picky as to which pitches he looks to attack, then the optimal results he has shown can be expected to tick upwards as well.

It’s fair to note that three weeks still isn’t a significant sample size, and Wallner starting to come around at Triple-A may provide a bit of tension to keep it going. With a player like Larnach that has gone through ebbs and flows previously, a wait and see approach is always a fair stance to take. If there’s something that looks different about this time around though, it’s because the process looks to be that way.

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[Oldgoat_MN]

I was excited when they drafted him. Then I had pretty much given up on him learning to hit breaking balls.

Really fun to see him producing for the team. If he can keep this up we have another slot in the lineup that is truly dangerous. 

[jorgenswest]

I would like to see him get a few starts against lefties.

I have wondered why Kirilloff is starting in the outfield with Larnach at DH. Is Kirilloff a better outfielder? That wasn’t my perception entering the season.

[Ted Schwerzler]

28 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I would like to see him get a few starts against lefties.

I have wondered why Kirilloff is starting in the outfield with Larnach at DH. Is Kirilloff a better outfielder? That wasn’t my perception entering the season.

The amount of DH starts for Larnach has been curious for me too. I don't know that Kirilloff is truly a good defender anywhere, and Larnach's arm isn't bad.

[DocBauer]

If I had to pick who I think is still going to be the better, more dangerous and productive hitter between Wallner and Larnach, I think I'd still predict Wallner. But that doesn't mean I'm not excited about what Larnach is doing, or that there isn't room for both of them.

On the one hand, we're talking a SSS, as has been pointed out. Also pointed out is a pretty high BABIP that's going to inevitably come down to earth a bit. But on the other hand, Larnach is striking out less, showing more power, while seeing a SIGNIFICANT drop in fastballs being presented to him. That tells me he's grown and matured as a hitter and for the most part, what we're seeing is not an illusion, just natural progress from a former top prospect who STILL has less than 800 ML PA in his career.

(As to Kirilloff playing more OF than Larnach, I believe part of that was Larnach still having some issues with his toe, or at least having the toe be protected a bit longer.)

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

The amount of DH starts for Larnach has been curious for me too. I don't know that Kirilloff is truly a good defender anywhere, and Larnach's arm isn't bad.

Larnach had Turf Toe and that's why he was DHing.

[Riverbrian]

43 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I would like to see him get a few starts against lefties.

I have wondered why Kirilloff is starting in the outfield with Larnach at DH. Is Kirilloff a better outfielder? That wasn’t my perception entering the season.

He has a toe injury that is keeping him out of the field. 

[bean5302]

Larnach is utterly locked in on fastballs, but unlike in years past, it's almost any type of fastball. Sinkers and cutters are getting hit, too. The split-finger still beats him, and the changeup remains a black hole, but we're still dealing with small sample sizes.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I had advocated for Larnach get another shot & kind of felt sorry for Larnach to be rushed up to MLB so soon. But he showed me that he was more than ready. He changed his swing & he's really cooking, I wouldn't change a thing. He's become a very dependable hitter. I'm super surprised by his transformation & expect good things from him.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

If I had to pick who I think is still going to be the better, more dangerous and productive hitter between Wallner and Larnach, I think I'd still predict Wallner.

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I would like to see him get a few starts against lefties.

I have wondered why Kirilloff is starting in the outfield with Larnach at DH. Is Kirilloff a better outfielder? That wasn’t my perception entering the season.

they say he is still having turf toe problems

[jorgenswest]

25 minutes ago, Karbo said:

they say he is still having turf toe problems

Thanks. That makes it more difficult to get him in the line up Vazquez is catching. They probably also wanted to avoid Toronto’s turf which might be where I noticed Kirilloff in left field as opposed to Larnach.

[Parfigliano]

Trevor has snapped to the fact that life is better on the Minnie side of St Paul.

[wabene]

10 hours ago, ashbury said:

Pam is a trouble maker. She is probably behind Alcala getting sent down.

[LambchoP]

He has been fun to watch. I wish Rocco wasn't so obsessed with platooning so not only Larnach but Julien and Kiriloff would get more at bats and the chance to  hit. If none of these young lefties never get the opportunity to hit LH pitchers, how are they ever supposed to improve? This is especially frustrating when these guys are on the bench in favor of Margot and Farmer who are absolute black holes in the lineup, but Rocco continues to play them solely because they hit right handed. Frustrating...

[USAFChief]

18 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I had advocated for Larnach get another shot & kind of felt sorry for Larnach to be rushed up to MLB so soon. But he showed me that he was more than ready. He changed his swing & he's really cooking, I wouldn't change a thing. He's become a very dependable hitter. I'm super surprised by his transformation & expect good things from him.

"Rushed up to MLB so soon"??

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

37 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

"Rushed up to MLB so soon"??

 

 

😉 Normal ramping up after extended time on the IL start in the lower level MiLB (which Larnach did) & then work them up through the levels (which Larnach didn't). Because of his problem with breaking balls, I felt that he needed that time. But as I stated before I was pleasantly surprised.