Prevent Fire With Fire: Jhoan Duran's Peculiar Lineup Pocket Monday Night

[Matthew Trueblood]

Rocco Baldelli has used Jhoan Duran in some interesting ways since the fireballer returned to the Twins bullpen last week. Briefly a traditional closer with non-traditional stuff, Duran is now getting looks in a former role--or perhaps a whole new version of it.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

It was a bit strange to see Baldelli turn to Jhoan Duran for the eighth inning Monday night against the Seattle Mariners. The Twins did have a narrow lead, and he'd already used Griffin Jax for the seventh, as the Mariners had sent up the heart of their lineup. Because Jax had an uneven game and had to face six batters to escape that frame, the eighth and ninth hitters were due up for Seattle.

Normally, if the Twins are going to turn to Duran before the ninth inning, you'd expect it to be because the meat of the opposing lineup is coming up. Dylan Moore and Josh Rojas don't exactly constitute a threat, and on one level, bringing in a pitcher as good as Duran just to get out Julio Rodríguez at the end of that sequence seems like overkill.

Again, though, Jax had already been used, and bringing him back for a second inning of work didn't seem like a viable option--particularly given how his one inning of work had gone. With Brock Stewart on the injured list, the relief pitcher Baldelli trusts most (beyond Jax and Duran) is Caleb Thielbar. Rojas is a left-handed batter, but Moore and Rodríguez are both righties. It's easy to understand why Baldelli didn't want to have Thielbar face that particular set of hitters, at a point when any run allowed would make the ninth inning harder for whichever pitcher came in thereafter.

It feels as though this move was primarily determined by the three-batter minimum rule. Baldelli knew that if he brought in Thielbar, he would not be able to remove him until after Rodríguez's plate appearance. Rodríguez might be off to a tough start, but on talent, he's a one-man heart of the lineup. In a tight game, the margin for error was too small to be locked into a bad matchup with him.

In effect, Baldelli was trying to put out a fire before it could start, and the best way to do so was to turn to his flamethrowing relief ace. The situations in which the three-batter minimum alters the order in which a skipper calls upon their high-leverage relievers figure to be few, but when they come up, they're interesting. It's also fun to think along with Baldelli in this way. He wasn't waiting for trouble to start, but nor was he managing unduly nervously. Given that Jax wasn't going to come back for the eighth, Baldelli only had that one moment, going into the inning, to select the right matchup for Rodríguez. That meant using his closer an inning early, but so be it.

My guess is that, if the Twins bullpen is ever at full strength (that is to say, if they have Stewart back; Jax and Duran intact; and Thielbar, Justin Topa, and the rest of their best available), this kind of decision would look different. To preserve and protect Duran, it makes sense to keep using him as a closer in many situations. Given Stewart's health history, Thielbar's age, and more, though, it's not all that likely that the pen will be so robust at any time this year. This situation, with its combination of constraints and opportunity, might not come up again, but we might keep seeing scenarios in which using Duran earlier in games is either necessary or expedient. It was good enough for a clean and relatively easy win Monday night, at least.

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[LambchoP]

I can understand bringing Duran into the game in the 8th if it's to face the opposing teams best hitters. Other than that though, I think he should be the one to close out games. It just brings up bad situations like yesterday. Duran breezed through the 8th,but then we had to hold our breathe and watch Theilbar try to get the save against a bunch of righties. Just have Jax and Stewart pitch 7-8 and let Duran get the most 9th inning save opportunities.

[Matthew Trueblood]

12 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I can understand bringing Duran into the game in the 8th if it's to face the opposing teams best hitters. Other than that though, I think he should be the one to close out games. It just brings up bad situations like yesterday. Duran breezed through the 8th,but then we had to hold our breathe and watch Theilbar try to get the save against a bunch of righties. Just have Jax and Stewart pitch 7-8 and let Duran get the most 9th inning save opportunities.

You know, I almost mentioned this in the piece, but now I'm glad I didn't. I like that we have a chance to kick it around here. Here's my take on that: You don't actually want to call your best reliever in just to target a team's best hitters, and their best hitters only. It can be a waste of them, and it can also take an undue toll on them. I think if you task Duran with always facing the other team's best, you'll see him wear down more, and he might feel (justifiably!) frustrated by the dent it could put in his numbers, even if it didn't dent the value he actually provides for the team. 

As I *did* say in the article, I see some unique characteristics of that game and that lineup that are unlikely to repeat often, but I sort of love the creativity and balance in the approach Baldelli took. You do get him against their toughest hitter, in Rodríguez, but you also don't maximize the stress of the outing for him, and you have a pretty darn good chance of getting through the inning in three batters, as we saw happen.

Had he not gotten them 1-2-3, of course, he *would* have stayed in to face the next two or three hitters, so in any scenario wherein the Mariners mounted a major comeback, it would be Duran on the mound to deal with it, right? 

I get what you're saying. But I dug this move and I'm interested to see what variants on it Baldelli tries in the future.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

I think you do always want your best pitcher to face the best part of the opposing team's lineup in the late innings, save for circumstances like a stacked platoon or 3+ run lead. 

Maintaining a lead is more important than saving Duran for bottom of the lineup hitters that just happen to come up in the 9th inning. 

[clone52]

19 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I can understand bringing Duran into the game in the 8th if it's to face the opposing teams best hitters. Other than that though, I think he should be the one to close out games. It just brings up bad situations like yesterday. Duran breezed through the 8th,but then we had to hold our breathe and watch Theilbar try to get the save against a bunch of righties. Just have Jax and Stewart pitch 7-8 and let Duran get the most 9th inning save opportunities.

14 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

You know, I almost mentioned this in the piece, but now I'm glad I didn't. I like that we have a chance to kick it around here. Here's my take on that: You don't actually want to call your best reliever in just to target a team's best hitters, and their best hitters only. It can be a waste of them, and it can also take an undue toll on them. I think if you task Duran with always facing the other team's best, you'll see him wear down more, and he might feel (justifiably!) frustrated by the dent it could put in his numbers, even if it didn't dent the value he actually provides for the team. 

As I *did* say in the article, I see some unique characteristics of that game and that lineup that are unlikely to repeat often, but I sort of love the creativity and balance in the approach Baldelli took. You do get him against their toughest hitter, in Rodríguez, but you also don't maximize the stress of the outing for him, and you have a pretty darn good chance of getting through the inning in three batters, as we saw happen.

Had he not gotten them 1-2-3, of course, he *would* have stayed in to face the next two or three hitters, so in any scenario wherein the Mariners mounted a major comeback, it would be Duran on the mound to deal with it, right? 

I get what you're saying. But I dug this move and I'm interested to see what variants on it Baldelli tries in the future.

LambchoP:  What good does saving Duran for the 9th inning if the save gets blown in the 8th?  If you feel the big risk in losing the game is in the 8th, you'd be stupid not to use your best reliever in that situation.

I'm not saying its a home run that Duran should have pitched in the 8th, but if you're worried about Thielbar pitching to Julio, its not a bad move.  Theilbar appears to have breezed through the 9th, so whats the worry.  Jax had thrown 31 pitches already so he wasn't an option and Stewart is hurt.

 

Matthew:

Couldn't you also make an argument that if you don't want to stress your top pitcher by facing the top hitters all the time, you also don't want to stress that pitcher by making them pitch in every single save opportunity?  Would you really want to pitch Duran in the 5 inning when the Twins were down 8 just to reduce their stress?  It probably depends on the makeup of the pitcher.  Duran seems pretty unflappable, so being in high leverage situations all the time probably isn't that big of a deal.  If a pitcher can't handle the stress of high leverage situations all the time, that probably means they are easily shaken and are probably never going to be an elite setup man or closer no matter how often you reduce their stressful situations.

 

[Jocko87]

5 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I think you do always want your best pitcher to face the best part of the opposing team's lineup in the late innings, save for a stacked platoon or 3+ run lead. 

Maintaining a lead is more important than saving Duran for bottom of the lineup hitters that just happen to come up in the 9th inning. 

Having the depth makes it so much easier. We've struggled with this in the past when it was only one dominant reliever and nothing after.

[Matthew Trueblood]

8 minutes ago, clone52 said:

Couldn't you also make an argument that if you don't want to stress your top pitcher by facing the top hitters all the time, you also don't want to stress that pitcher by making them pitch in every single save opportunity?  Would you really want to pitch Duran in the 5 inning when the Twins were down 8 just to reduce their stress?  It probably depends on the makeup of the pitcher.  Duran seems pretty unflappable, so being in high leverage situations all the time probably isn't that big of a deal.  If a pitcher can't handle the stress of high leverage situations all the time, that probably means they are easily shaken and are probably never going to be an elite setup man or closer no matter how often you reduce their stressful situations.

Could you make that argument? I guess so. Would it be a good-faith argument, and is it in any serious way the same as the argument I made? Well. I'll let you answer that one.

C'mon man.

[Riverbrian]

I wasn't able to watch the game so I'm hesitant to comment based on my reviewing of box scores.

The only thing that I can assume was that Duran was warmed up. Rocco might have gotten him up to rescue Jax. 

It's nice to have multiple relievers who can be called on to pitch the ninth and it's nice to have the opportunity to deploy your biggest gun in other innings... not just the ninth. 

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Could you make that argument? I guess so. Would it be a good-faith argument, and is it in any serious way the same as the argument I made? Well. I'll let you answer that one.

C'mon man.

Just picking out one part of that comment I agree with, I do think there's some validity to the notion that an elite reliever (athletes, in general) want to face the best competition possible whenever he can. 

[dougd]

Rojas was Seattle's leadoff batter in the game with an OPS of .980, not the #9.

[IaBeanCounter]

I'm all for using Duran to face the 9, 1 & 2 hitters, With 1 and 2 hitters having the highest BA of the 9 starters.  For all the complaining about Rocco's management of the BP (including myself when I thought Tbar was toast), in 15 games where a save was possible the Twins have won 12, an 80% conversion rate.   (Note: the Twins have 5 blown saves, but came back to win 2 of those games).  WPA must account for the batters to be faced because Duran had a higher WPA than Tbar.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

WPA must account for the batters to be faced because Duran had a higher WPA than Tbar.

WPA doesn't actually account for who is hitting, and I'm seeing that Duran & Thielbar had the same WPA by either b-ref or fangraphs. I think WPA should account for that, but as far as I know there isn't a published metric that accounts for that. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, clone52 said:

if you don't want to stress your top pitcher by facing the top hitters all the time

The whole point of leveraging your bullpen is to have your top pitcher face the top hitters every time you have a chance to win. That should be the goal of every manager.

[Shaitan]

Was this really a peculiar use of Duran though? He has something like 40 saves in my his career. I think it easily fits the bigger pattern. The era of the "closer" is over.

I think the far more interesting take is mentioned in the article: that rule changes encourage new strategies. Even this simplest change has a trickle down effect.

I could care less about closers and save records, but here's my obligatory editorial rant: Manfred, stop changing the game! Simple is better. Almost always, but especially for baseball.

[2wins87]

3 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I can understand bringing Duran into the game in the 8th if it's to face the opposing teams best hitters. Other than that though, I think he should be the one to close out games. It just brings up bad situations like yesterday. Duran breezed through the 8th,but then we had to hold our breathe and watch Theilbar try to get the save against a bunch of righties. Just have Jax and Stewart pitch 7-8 and let Duran get the most 9th inning save opportunities.

If Julio Rodriguez and Josh Rojas aren't among the hitters to most worry about in this Seattle lineup right now, then who is?

Also, people seem to have really short memories on Thielbar, because I'm seeing this kind of take a lot.  I didn't fully buy Thielbar after 2020, but it's been 4 years now and it's just a fact that he's a very good high leverage reliever.  He is 37, so I get worrying that he'll lose it, but he's been good enough not to let 2 or 3 rough early outings totally change our view of him.  Especially when we already saw the exact same thing in 2022, and he went on to be really good that year, and particularly dominant in July-September

FWIW he didn't face 3 righties either, he faced 1 righty and 2 switch hitters, both of whom are worse from the right side of the plate.  In a very heavily right handed lineup it was probably about as good a spot for him as any.

[IndianaTwin]

It's interesting that from time to time there's a lot of complaining about managers not using their best reliever in the highest leverage situation. Then when it happens, people complain. 

As someone notes above, Duran didn't face 8-9-1, he faced 9-1-2. That meant Duran (our best reliever, right) faced a righty, a lefty who is also the only guy in the lineup with an OPS over .725 (Rojas at .979) and the righty who's seen as far and away their best hitter (Rodriguez). That's not a good split mix for Thielbar, but Duran is probably the person on the team best equipped to face that. If one of them gets on, the next guy up is the switch-hitting Polanco, where there's not a platoon advantage either way.

Assuming Duran gets through the inning unscathed (and that's the hope/plan, right?), it means Thielbar gets two switch-hitters and a righty. By definition, the Mariners have at least two platoon advantages in their favor either way. They are also OPSing .638, .626 and .725, with batting averages of .195, .214 and .206. That's much softer than what Duran faced. And if, as @2wins87 says, the switch-hitters are weaker from the right side, they ought to be facing a lefty.  

There's also another aspect. The Twins batted in between the two innings. Seattle has a good bullpen, but if the Twins score in the bottom of the eighth, it changes the top of the ninth. Said another way, Duran was guaranteed to pitch the situation where the Twins are up one. Assuming Duran does his job, Thielbar could have entered with a one-run lead, but he could have also easily entered with a two-, three- or even more-run lead, which lessens the leverage even more. Ignoring the inning/handedness, would you rather have Duran pitch the inning with a one-run lead and Thielbar with the one, but possibly more run lead or vice versa. I'd rather the former.

In my mind, Rocco played it correctly. 

[USAFChief]

16 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

 Seattle has a good bullpen, but if the Twins score in the top of the ninth, it changes the bottom of the inning. 

If the Twins scored in the top of the 9th, I think there'd be some sort of MLB investigation under way right now. 

[IndianaTwin]

36 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

If the Twins scored in the top of the 9th, I think there'd be some sort of MLB investigation under way right now. 

It would have been a Jimmy Piersall running around the bases backwards sort of thing. 

Oops -- bottom of the eighth. Corrected.

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

You know, I almost mentioned this in the piece, but now I'm glad I didn't. I like that we have a chance to kick it around here. Here's my take on that: You don't actually want to call your best reliever in just to target a team's best hitters, and their best hitters only. It can be a waste of them, and it can also take an undue toll on them. I think if you task Duran with always facing the other team's best, you'll see him wear down more, and he might feel (justifiably!) frustrated by the dent it could put in his numbers, even if it didn't dent the value he actually provides for the team. 

As I *did* say in the article, I see some unique characteristics of that game and that lineup that are unlikely to repeat often, but I sort of love the creativity and balance in the approach Baldelli took. You do get him against their toughest hitter, in Rodríguez, but you also don't maximize the stress of the outing for him, and you have a pretty darn good chance of getting through the inning in three batters, as we saw happen.

Had he not gotten them 1-2-3, of course, he *would* have stayed in to face the next two or three hitters, so in any scenario wherein the Mariners mounted a major comeback, it would be Duran on the mound to deal with it, right? 

I get what you're saying. But I dug this move and I'm interested to see what variants on it Baldelli tries in the future.

Im all for Duran or anyone else that can get 6 outs pitch the 7/8th or 8/9th. Its about ending the game as efficiently and fast as possible when we have a small lead. 

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

There's also another aspect. The Twins batted in between the two innings. Seattle has a good bullpen, but if the Twins score in the bottom of the eighth, it changes the top of the ninth. Said another way, Duran was guaranteed to pitch the situation where the Twins are up one. Assuming Duran does his job, Thielbar could have entered with a one-run lead, but he could have also easily entered with a two-, three- or even more-run lead, which lessens the leverage even more. Ignoring the inning/handedness, would you rather have Duran pitch the inning with a one-run lead and Thielbar with the one, but possibly more run lead or vice versa. I'd rather the former.

In my mind, Rocco played it correctly. 

Yep, get your best reliever in the game when you know it matters rather than planning for it to matter later.

I think this is the "bullpen theory" that Rocco (and probably a lot of other managers around the MLB) is getting more comfortable with, and I agree with it pretty much 100%.  It often amounts to using the bullpen sort of backwards where the best guy comes in to the 7th or 8th with a 1 run lead.  But generally, when the opponent is down by 1, they will go to their 4th or 5th best guys in those innings, and if your offense can add a run or two it becomes a much easier save (or a non-save) for the 3rd or 4th best guy in your bullpen.

One of the worst stretches of last year was in late May when they blew a number of late leads.  On May 19, Duran hadn't pitched in 4 days and they blew 4-3 lead in the 7th going on to lose 4-5. Duran didn't pitch in the game and instead pitched the next day in a pretty low leverage 9th inning with a 4 run lead.  On May 23rd, Duran is again fresh on 3 days rest when the Twins again turn a 1 run lead into a 1 run deficit in the 7th inning against the heart of San Francisco's lineup. Duran, once again, doesn't pitch in the close game but the next day, this time with a 6 run lead in the 9th.

That's pretty suboptimal usage of a guy like Duran.  Of course it is hindsight that they didn't get to a save situation in those two blown games, but that is exactly the point. We know that a 1 run lead in the 7th is a pretty high leverage situation, we don't know what's going to happen later in the game. I'd generally rather see the best reliever get in to preserve the lead (particularly if some dangerous hitters are up) and hope that they can either increase the lead or that the second best guy will be good enough in the 9th.  Saving a guy to only pitch 9th inning situations is such a waste.

 

[IndianaTwin]

48 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Yep, get your best reliever in the game when you know it matters rather than planning for it to matter later.

I think this is the "bullpen theory" that Rocco (and probably a lot of other managers around the MLB) is getting more comfortable with, and I agree with it pretty much 100%.  It often amounts to using the bullpen sort of backwards where the best guy comes in to the 7th or 8th with a 1 run lead.  But generally, when the opponent is down by 1, they will go to their 4th or 5th best guys in those innings, and if your offense can add a run or two it becomes a much easier save (or a non-save) for the 3rd or 4th best guy in your bullpen.

One of the worst stretches of last year was in late May when they blew a number of late leads.  On May 19, Duran hadn't pitched in 4 days and they blew 4-3 lead in the 7th going on to lose 4-5. Duran didn't pitch in the game and instead pitched the next day in a pretty low leverage 9th inning with a 4 run lead.  On May 23rd, Duran is again fresh on 3 days rest when the Twins again turn a 1 run lead into a 1 run deficit in the 7th inning against the heart of San Francisco's lineup. Duran, once again, doesn't pitch in the close game but the next day, this time with a 6 run lead in the 9th.

That's pretty suboptimal usage of a guy like Duran.  Of course it is hindsight that they didn't get to a save situation in those two blown games, but that is exactly the point. We know that a 1 run lead in the 7th is a pretty high leverage situation, we don't know what's going to happen later in the game. I'd generally rather see the best reliever get in to preserve the lead (particularly if some dangerous hitters are up) and hope that they can either increase the lead or that the second best guy will be good enough in the 9th.  Saving a guy to only pitch 9th inning situations is such a waste.

 

Agree throughout. 

And not to bring up a swear word, but the scenario in which you describe using your 4th or 5th best reliever is the exact scenario in which Pagan actually thrived last year. If you look at his game log, you'll see that aside from the several games when he completely blew it (the homer against the Dodgers, for example), he actually pitched quite well in the "opportunity for a vulture" role. 

[rv78]

Sure, it worked for Rocco in this game, but if it hadn't would you still be happy with the move? Maybe Rocco made a mistake, (possibly and very likely). Why use Jax in the 7th? Were Alcala, Okert, and Sands still exhausted from their 2 combined innings pitched on Saturday that 1 of them couldn't pitch the 7th? Maybe that would have been the smarter move thus saving Jax for the 8th and Duran for the 9th. My point of view is, Rocco used Duran in the 8th to cover for the mistake he made by using Jax in the 7th. 

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

If the Twins scored in the top of the 9th, I think there'd be some sort of MLB investigation under way right now. 

Scoring in the bottom of that inning would have raised some eyebrows about the game, too.

[clone52]

On 5/7/2024 at 11:24 AM, Matthew Trueblood said:

Could you make that argument? I guess so. Would it be a good-faith argument, and is it in any serious way the same as the argument I made? Well. I'll let you answer that one.

C'mon man.

Maybe I misunderstood.  I thought you were saying that it might make sense not to use your best pitcher in the 8th inning against the best hitters in order to let him have a lower stress inning in the 9th.  Not all the times, but some of the times.  If that wasn't the argument you were making, then I apologize.