Checking Back in on Chris Paddack

[Cody Pirkl]

To begin his 2024 season, Chris Paddack has experienced some extreme highs and lows. Now that we have a handful of starts to break down, what are we seeing from the 2024 version of the Minnesota Twins starter?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Paddack’s first start of the season saw little slider usage. The stuff looked intact, but the question of whether the Twins could add a pitch to take him to the next level remained. We’ve had three starts since then, and the results and usage patterns are all over the place.

Briefly, there was at least a hopeful correlation to draw from Paddack’s pitch mix. In his second start against a formidable Dodgers lineup, Paddack was inefficient but solid, given the circumstances. The new slider was his second-most used pitch, as he allowed just two runs across 4 2/3 innings and struck out five. 

His third start was a bit of a disaster, as he allowed nine earned runs to the Orioles in 5 1/3 innings. The path forward at that point seemed clear, as he failed against a similarly lethal lineup on a night when he dropped his slider usage from 26% (against the Dodgers) to just 10%. Perhaps the slider was the difference-maker.

Paddack and the Twins clearly didn’t feel that was the case. The Chicago White Sox are as big of a step down in the opposing lineup as you’ll find, but Paddack dropped his slider usage down to 9% and posted one of the best outings of his entire career this week. He rode his usual pitch mix, including his fastball, changeup, and curveball, for seven innings of scoreless ball with 10 strikeouts. Four starts aren’t enough to stabilize Paddack’s pitch mix tendencies, but what have we learned?

Paddack’s wariness of using his slider is probably warranted. The pitch has allowed a .375 batting average and a 1.125 slugging percentage. It may be his second-best whiff pitch, but it’s allowing a ridiculous average exit velocity of 96.3 mph. It’s responsible for two of the four homers Paddack has allowed, despite being thrown just 13% of the time. It’s still a work in progress, and we probably won’t see Paddack spike the usage of it any time soon.

Paddack’s changeup has yet to round back into form. The pitch has been his best weapon across his career, but so far, it has just a 20.4% whiff rate. It’s also responsible for the other two homers he’s allowed, and has arguably been his second-worst offering as his go-to offspeed pitch, which has been thrown over 30% of the time.

The velocity on the fastball has stabilized at 94.3 mph, a great sign that Paddack is fully healthy and searching for his feel and consistency at this point, rather than settling into any particular pitch patterns. Nobody will weigh a gem against the White Sox too heavily, but hopefully, it was a turning point for Paddack. His fastball was as dominant as it has ever been, and the changeup drew a swing and miss one-third of the time on Monday.

Paddack’s recent dominant start contained shades of his previous peak in San Diego, rather than a new version we hope to see slinging a dominant slider. At this point, Paddack maintaining his stuff and getting his feel back has to be considered a win, no matter what lineup he shined against. As for us seeing the version of Chris Paddack the Twins were hoping for when they acquired him, the jury is still out.

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Saturday night, Paddack will make his fifth start of the season. How do you think he'll perform against the Angels? What would you like to see from his pitch mix?

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[NotAboutWinning]

Control is the last thing to come back after TJ. I expect more ups and downs, but hopefully on an upward trajectory.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm far from believing the hype that Paddack will step up & replace Gray. But Paddack should have the stuff to handle the LAA if the offense arrives again tonite. 

It seems the Twins try to accommodate the west-coast teams' schedule when they host them why can't they do the same for us, so we can follow the games? Living in Brazil makes it even harder.

[Patzky]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm far from believing the hype that Paddack will step up & replace Gray. But Paddack should have the stuff to handle the LAA if the offense arrives again tonite. 

It seems the Twins try to accommodate the west-coast teams' schedule when they host them why can't they do the same for us, so we can follow the games? Living in Brazil makes it even harder.

Seats make money.. a mid to late afternoon game on a Friday in Anaheim wouldn't be a very easy draw just to placate Midwest fans. I bet the Angels fans wish that east coast games started at 10 pm local time too..

[Doctor Gast]

52 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Seats make money.. a mid to late afternoon game on a Friday in Anaheim wouldn't be a very easy draw just to placate Midwest fans. I bet the Angels fans wish that east coast games started at 10 pm local time too..

Neither a cold early spring evening game at Target. They could at least have afternoon games on the weekend.

I assume Patzky that you probably live near the West Coast because are concerned about the East Coast games & not to mention the hardship  of evening West Coast games for Easterners

 

[stringer bell]

Anxious to see how Paddack holds up. It would be nice to have him in the rotation all year, pitching effectively. 

[Karbo]

Like all pitchers, he needs to control the location, stay out of the middle of the zone. Up and down, in and out, back and forth. That's what makes a good pitcher better.

[Patzky]

58 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Neither a cold early spring evening game at Target. They could at least have afternoon games on the weekend.

I assume Patzky that you probably live near the West Coast because are concerned about the East Coast games & not to mention the hardship  of evening West Coast games for Easterners

 

Nah actually live on the east coast, transplanted Midwesterner. The NFL is the only league that really micromanage starting times like some people would advocate. Outside of weather delays (see KC-Toronto yesterday with the getaway day likely impacting the decision) I honestly love the differing time zones.. makes for seven or eight hours of baseball if the Cubs are at home. 😊

[jmlease1]

He'll need to get something out of a breaking ball this season if he's going to stay effective; it's been his biggest challenge over his career: finding that 3rd pitch to keep hitters from keying on his fastball. Even if his velocity on the fastball is up, he can't just be a 2-pitch guy, so figuring out whether it's the curve or the slider is going to be important. 

The start against Balto was pretty awful, but there's been some things to like in the other starts (the one against CWS was quite good). He's got to be less hittable, though: 12.9 H/9 is going to get him bashed around, and it's not like it was just the Balto game skewing the sample. The velocity is encouraging, and the HR rate is doable. trade a few of those hits for Ks and he'll be cooking, but I think he'll need a sharper breaking ball to get there.

[LambchoP]

I agree, if he can locate dnd execute a third pitch I think he'll be ok. Let's just hope for perfect starter health the rest of the way, because if any of Pablo, Ryan, Ober or Paddack go down.... we're truly screwed. What are the chances we pick up an impact starter at the trade deadline?

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm far from believing the hype that Paddack will step up & replace Gray. But Paddack should have the stuff to handle the LAA if the offense arrives again tonite. 

It seems the Twins try to accommodate the west-coast teams' schedule when they host them why can't they do the same for us, so we can follow the games? Living in Brazil makes it even harder.

The Angels should schedule start times to accommodate Twins fans?

And pray tell, how do the Twins accommodate west coast fans?

[wabene]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Living in Brazil makes it even harder

Chewing on some coco leaves might help with staying up later, I kid, I kid.

Seriously it's pretty cool that you can live in an exotic local and still follow our favorite ballclub.

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

It seems the Twins try to accommodate the west-coast teams' schedule when they host them why can't they do the same for us, so we can follow the games? Living in Brazil makes it even harder.

The games against the Dodgers started at 6:40, 6:40 and 12:15 CDT. The upcoming Mariners series has 3 games starting at 6:40 and 1 at 12:10. The D'backs and A's series at Target Field have similar start times, one game does move back to 7:10 though, but there's a FloRida concert after. Not seeing where you're getting this idea.

[D.C Twins]

After seeing him in the post season, I was really bullish on him this year.

Alas, so far, it appears that I got a little too wrapped up in a small bullpen sample size.... it happens :)

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm far from believing the hype that Paddack will step up & replace Gray. But Paddack should have the stuff to handle the LAA if the offense arrives again tonite. 

It seems the Twins try to accommodate the west-coast teams' schedule when they host them why can't they do the same for us, so we can follow the games? Living in Brazil makes it even harder.

Can’t you just get up a little early to watch the game? :)  Does Brazil have two or four time zone?

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Verified Member said:

Can’t you just get up a little early to watch the game? :)  Does Brazil have two or four time zone?

We're 4 hrs ahead which means the game starts at 10:38 pm. That's after I normally go to bed. The game would have to be very special. 

[joefish]

I live in Alaska and I look forward to the West Coast swings. Although it might not be dark here, it still feels a bit like night baseball. Which I like. 

[wabene]

2 hours ago, joefish said:

I live in Alaska and I look forward to the West Coast swings. Although it might not be dark here, it still feels a bit like night baseball. Which I like. 

Joe did you get any snow up there this "winter". It was a completely depressing snowpocolypse here in Minnesota, ugh. Nada.

[joefish]

4 hours ago, wabene said:

Joe did you get any snow up there this "winter". It was a completely depressing snowpocolypse here in Minnesota, ugh. Nada.

We still have snow. We got dumped on late. But it's going fast now as the daylight lengthens.